Climate Change and Indian Agriculture: Current Focus and Future Priorities

P.K. Aggarwal

Indian Agricultural Research InstituteNew Delhi, India

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Climate and Indian AgricultureClimate and Indian Agriculture

Indian agriculture is considerably dependant on changes in weather

Contribution of agriculture to GDP is decreasing, yet large population dependent on this for livelihoods

Need to understand the impacts of increasing climatic risks and possible adaptations

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Approach: Experiments & modellingApproach: Experiments & modelling

Models of food production

Models of food production

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InfoCrop: A User-friendly Crop Modelling SystemInfoCrop: A User-friendly Crop Modelling System

Model responds to change in:

Environment: Radiation, temperature, CO2, rainfall, wind speed, vapor pressure, flooding, frost

Soil Variety Agronomic Management Pests population

Has been validated for rice, wheat, maize, sorghum, cotton, potato, groundnut, soybean, mustard in different agro-climatic regions

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Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Wheat Yields in North IndiaSimulated Impact of Global Climate Change on Wheat Yields in North India

350

450

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650

750

0 1 2 3 4 5

Increase in temperature, C

CO

2,pp

m

20%

10% 0%-10%

-20%-30%

-40%

WHEAT

350

450

550

650

750

0 1 2 3 4 5

Increase in temperature, C

CO

2,pp

m

20%

10% 0%-10%

-20%-30%

-40%

WHEAT

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Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change Scenarios on Wheat Yields in North IndiaSimulated Impact of Global Climate Change Scenarios on Wheat Yields in North India

350

450

550

650

750

0 1 2 3 4 5

Increase in temperature, C

CO

2,pp

m

20%

10% 0%-10%

-20%-30%

-40%

WHEAT

350

450

550

650

750

0 1 2 3 4 5

Increase in temperature, C

CO

2,pp

m

20%

10% 0%-10%

-20%-30%

-40%

WHEAT

2020

2050

2080

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Impact of Climate Change on Food SupplyImpact of Climate Change on Food Supply

Items Production(million

tons)

Demand of food(million tons)

2000 2010 2020

Rice 85.4 103.6 122.1

Wheat 71.0 85.8 102.8

Coarse grains 29.9 34.9 40.9

Total cereals 184.7 224.3 265.8

Pulses 16.1 21.4 27.8

Foodgrains 200.8 245.7 293.6

Fruits 41.1 56.3 77.0

Vegetables 84.5 112.7 149.7

Milk 75.3 103.7 142.7

Meat and eggs 3.7 5.4 7.8

Marineproducts

5.7 8.2 11.8

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Impact of Climate Change on Food ProductionImpact of Climate Change on Food Production

Time

Pro

du

ctio

n

Demand

Business asusual

Supply

Demand

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Time

Pro

du

ctio

n

Demand

Business asusual

With climatechange

Impact of Climate Change on Food ProductionImpact of Climate Change on Food Production

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Time

Pro

du

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n

Demand

Business asusual

With climatechange

Withadaptation

Impact of Climate Change on Food ProductionImpact of Climate Change on Food Production

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Agro-Ecological RegionsAgro-Ecological Regions

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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000

Measured production, 1000 tons

Sim

ula

ted

pro

du

cti

on

, 10

00

to

ns

199219931994

Validation of InfoCrop for wheat producing statesValidation of InfoCrop for wheat producing states

Another validation with the parent model-WTGROWS- using FACE experiment at USA- showed good agreement with field observations

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Regional climate change scenariosRegional climate change scenarios

PRECIS: A2 scenario Daily values for 2070-2099 period

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Total number of frost days at Delhi for observed and baseline scenario

0

5

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20

25

30

35

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

Year

Tota

l day

s <

1 o

C

Observed

Baseline

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Total number of rainy days at Delhi for observed and baseline scenario

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60

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120

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28

Year

Tota

l ra

iny

day

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Observed

Baseline

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05-10 00-05-05-00-05-10-10-20-20-40>-40

% Change in yield

Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a pessimistic technology scenario HaDCM3-2020

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2020 2050

05-10 00-05-05-00-05-10-10-20-20-40>-40

% Change in yield

Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a pessimistic technology scenario

HaDCM3 scenarios

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2020 2050

Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a paradise technology scenario

05-10 00-05-05-00-05-10-10-20-20-40>-40

% Change in yield

HaDCM3 scenarios

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Declining Response of Wheat to Improved Management in Global Warming ScenariosDeclining Response of Wheat to Improved Management in Global Warming Scenarios

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 50 100 150 200N fertiliser added, kg/ha

Gra

in y

ield

, t/

ha

2000 20102030 20502070

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y = -0.10x + 200.99R2 = 0.56*

y = -0.05x + 104.56R2 = 0.18ns

0

2

4

6

8

1985 1990 1995 2000Year

On-station

On-farmYie

ld (

Mg

ha

-1)

Decline in yield is apparently also related to decrease in radiation and increase in minimum temperature

Relation of Recent Weather Trends with Yields of Paddy and Wheat

Relation of Recent Weather Trends with Yields of Paddy and Wheat

Year

Rad

iati

on

(M

J m

-2 d

-1)

10

15

20

25

1985 1990 1995 20000

5

YearM

in T

em

p.

(°C

)

15

17

19

21

23

25

1985 1990 1995 2000

Tmin, C

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Evidences in Recent Past: Estimated impact of heat wave in March 2004 on wheat production

Evidences in Recent Past: Estimated impact of heat wave in March 2004 on wheat production

Increased heat: + 5-8 oC in north and central India from 5th March to 28th March, 2004

Caused a loss of 4.5 million tons of wheat

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Estimated impact of heat wave in March 2004 on wheat productionEstimated impact of heat wave in March 2004 on wheat production

State Yield loss, %

Production loss, million tons

Uttranchal 8.60 0.066 Punjab 8.32 1.287 Haryana 7.62 0.704 Uttar Pradesh 6.75 1.720 Himachal Pradesh 5.79 0.033 Bihar 4.73 0.230 Rajasthan 3.87 0.213 Madhya Pradesh 1.11 0.084 Maharashtra 0.00 0.000 West Bengal 0.00 0.000 India 4.387

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Adaptation in agriculture is a continuous processAdaptation in agriculture is a continuous process

1. Agriculture diversity is a manifestation of climatic adaptation

2. Farmers/society have always adapted when allowed by technology availability, their socio-economic capacity, and economics.

3. Induced adaptation by innovation: – Green revolution of 1960s– Resource conservation technologies such as

zero tillage– GMOs

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Traditional adaptations/coping strategies to climatic stress practiced by farmers

•Drought proofing by mixed cropping

•Low yielding, tolerant crops

•Resource conservation

•Single cropping

•Frost management by irrigation

•Heat stress alleviation by frequent irrigation

•Shelter belts

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Adaptation options to climatic change: autonomous

Changing varieties/crops altering fertiliser rates to maintain grain or fruit

quality and be more suited to the prevailing climate,

altering amounts and timing of irrigation ‘harvest’ water conserve soil moisture (e.g. crop residue

retention) use water more effectively altering the timing or location of cropping

activities diversifying income including livestock raising

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Scope of autonomous adaptations in wheat in north India in different scenariosScope of autonomous adaptations in wheat in north India in different scenarios

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

1C 2C 3C 4C 5C

Increase in Temeprature, C

Ch

ang

e in

cro

p y

ield

, %

Control

Adapted

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Constraints in autonomous adaptationsConstraints in autonomous adaptations

Availability at desired time– Fields for desired activity– Extension services for management of

adapted variety, if different– Seeds of adapted varieties– Irrigation water, fertilizer and machinery

Costs of adaptation- unknown

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Adaptation options to climatic change: Planned

Investments in adaptation research capacityImproved communication of climate changes and options to adapt to themInvestments in infrastructure for water management and for product transportation and marketingChanges in policies and institutions, e.g. incentives for resource conservation and use efficiencyCredit for transition to adaptation technologies Relocation to more productive areasCreating alternate livelihood options and reducing dependence on agriculture Greater insurance coverage for the farm

Conclusions

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Increasing demands for food– Reducing/stagnating crop yields: fatigue of

intensive agriculture and climate change

Reducing availability of natural resources for agriculture– Need for increased resources: land, water,

fertilizers, capital

Need to preserve environment– Greater environmental impact of agriculture

Future priorities: Complex future agriculture scenarioFuture priorities: Complex future agriculture scenario

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•Assess vulnerability of agriculture to global climate change in a changing global scenario (demands, markets, technologies, natural resources)

•Develop research infrastructure for assessment of direct impacts- FACE, FATE

•Develop models for integrated assessment

•Need to link ‘sectoral’ research- scenarios of climate change- water resources – agriculture and other sectors- policy -feedbacks

•Identify research/technology/policy options for short-term

•Focus on ‘no-regrets’ options

Agriculture in an Uncertain Future: Need for Integrated Action

Indian National Network

Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of Indian

Agriculture to Climatic Change

Involves 16 research institutes, >60 scientists

Indian National Network

Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability of Indian

Agriculture to Climatic Change

Involves 16 research institutes, >60 scientists

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Specific Information NeedsSpecific Information Needs

Impact on food (crops, milk, fish) demand and supply- spatial and temporal differences

Impact on nutrition – cereals, legumes, oil crops Impact on commercial crops (quality and quantity)-

spices, tea, coffee, medicinal plants Impact on trade – internal and external Impact on natural resources- soil, water and air Impact on farmer’s livelihood Options to enhance adaptive capacity - farmer level,

regional differences, government level Potential of agricultural land as carbon sink Policy implications: link with current development plans

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Information Needs on Vulnerability of Agricultural SectorInformation Needs on Vulnerability of Agricultural Sector

Can we remain self-sufficient in food despite global climatic changes, urbanization and trade liberalization?

Which regions and the social groups are more vulnerable to climatic change?

How will enhanced climatic risks affect livelihoods of resource-poor farmers- hill, coastal, tribals?

How should different farmers adapt to cope with climate change ? (in the background of changing scenario of demand and markets)

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Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on Environment : Information NeedsMitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on Environment : Information Needs

Can alternate land use systems such as plantations and agroforestry increase carbon sequestration and yet meet food demand?

How much area can be taken out from agriculture for forestry; where and what policy measures would be needed?

How much carbon is conserved by limited tillage options? For how long ?

What is the potential of biofuels for carbon mitigation; what policies and technologies would ensure their adoption by farming community?

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Need for research infrastructure