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Abu Mostafa Kamal Uddin, Climate Change SpecialistUNDP

Bangladesh: Geographical position sets hydrological context Bangladesh: Geographical position sets hydrological context

Bangladesh: Country context and vulnerabilityBangladesh: Country context and vulnerability

Deltaic landscape, 1/3Deltaic landscape, 1/3rdrd of the country come under of the country come under regular monsoon floodingregular monsoon flooding

Around one fourth of the country under regular tidal Around one fourth of the country under regular tidal excursion excursion

92-93 % water from upper catchment 92-93 % water from upper catchment Over a million people depends directly on fish Over a million people depends directly on fish

resources resources Poor people dependent on aquatic resources by Poor people dependent on aquatic resources by

largelarge

19 districts, 147 upazilasPopulation 34.8 million in 2001,

41.2 in 2015 and 56.6 in 2050

BAGERHATBARGUNABARISALJHALAKATICHANDPURCHITTAGONGCOX’S BAZARFENIGOPALGANJ0JESSORE

BHOLAKHULNALAKSHMIPURNARAILNOAKHALIPATUAKHALIPIROJPURSATKHIRASHARIATPUR

IPCC , SREX 2011Temperature increaseRain fall erratic Dry days increaseHeavy spell of rainsWater shortages , droughtSalinity intrusion

Temperature and rain fall scenarios

•Annual avg Tmax increasing trend but increase over time will decline •Tmin gradual increase over time. •Rainfall in monsoon and post-monsoon will increase while rainfall in the dry season will remain closer to historical amount. •Rainfall in pre-monsoon shows erratic nature. •Rain fall increase 4, 2.3 and 6.7 % in 2030, 2050 and 2070, respectively (BUET, 2008).

NAPA 2009

Climate Change Impact: Observed in BangladeshClimate Change Impact: Observed in Bangladesh

5500 C, 2007, Jan in Jessore C, 2007, Jan in Jessore 44 44 00C, 1989 at Bogra.C, 1989 at Bogra. 290 mm in 6h, Dhaka, July 2009290 mm in 6h, Dhaka, July 2009 408 mm , Cht , June 2009408 mm , Cht , June 2009 Drought 2009, 21% less rain (June-August)Drought 2009, 21% less rain (June-August) Floods 2002, 2003, and 2004, 2007 (twice) Floods 2002, 2003, and 2004, 2007 (twice) Cyclone Sidr , Nargis, Rashmi, Aila Cyclone Sidr , Nargis, Rashmi, Aila cautionary Signal frequentcautionary Signal frequent salinity intrusion salinity intrusion Meghalaya rain fall in premonsoon increasedMeghalaya rain fall in premonsoon increased

Scenario Dry Season Monsoon Season

Fresh water area (<1 ppt)

Brackishwater area(>1 ppt)

Change Fresh waterarea (<1 ppt)

Brackishwater area(>1 ppt)

Change

Base(2005)

2,562,500 2,152,000 3,779,600 9,403

A2, 27cm[2050]

2,273,300 2441200 3,665,400 10,508 114200

A2, 62cm[2080]

2,135,700 2,578,800 426800 3,502,800 12,111 276,700

Changes in Fresh and Brackish Water Area [Ha] in Dry and Monsoon

Source: IWM and CEGIS, 2007 (NAPA 2009)

•Aquaculture infrastructure,•Pond siltation•Fish breeding habitat•Increase open water fisheries•Drought will affect fish growth, breeding & production,•Increase disease vulnerability•Reduce fishing season and reduce broods •Salinity intrusion and erratic rainfall

Adverse impacts of climate change

NAPA 2009

Knowledge gaps •Breeding conditions•Water retention in the

lowest pockets of water bodies•Fish schooling•Food availability•Habitat quality•Connectivity of wetlands •Etc

•Development and protection of dry season fish

refuges for sustainable management of fisheries

through community husbandry in the northwestern

part of Bangladesh

•Adaptation of fish culture techniques to increased

flood levels and diversification of aquaculture

techniques in the flood- prone north central region

of Bangladesh

Possible adaptation measures , NAPA 2009

•Development and protection of dry season fish

refuges for sustainable management of fisheries

through community husbandry in the northwestern

part of Bangladesh

•Adaptation of fish culture techniques to increased

flood levels and diversification of aquaculture

techniques in the flood- prone north central region

of Bangladesh

Possible adaptation measures , NAPA 2009

•Adaptation to flood on freshwater wetlands

(beel) fisheries with special emphasis to

recruitment of small indigenous fish species

•Adaptive measures for the fisheries resources

with the impacts of climatic changes in the

coastal ecosystem of Bangladesh

Possible adaptation measures , NAPA 2009

Thanks