Climate change and Australian Agriculture Click to edit Master ......20 40 60 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Ellinbank 1971-1999 2000-2015 an Feb ar Apr ay Jun Jul Aug Sep t v ec Terang 2000-2015

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Primary Industries Climate Challenges Centre

Climate change and Australian Agriculture

Richard Eckard

• Physical– Temperature, rainfall, atmospheric CO2

– Extreme events

• Policy– Paris COP21 agreement

– Emissions trading, carbon pricing

• People– Supply chain demands

– Carbon neutral agriculture

– Changing consumer preferences

The 3Ps of Climate Change

• Rainfall & Climate variability

– Highest in Australia and South Africa

– Climate change adds another challenge

Introduction

Variability of Annual rainfall

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Australia S. Africa Germany France NZ India UK Canada China USA Russia

Country

Co

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(%)

(100 years of data for Australia and generally also for the other countries)

Love (2005)

• Climate has already warmed

– by ~1⁰C since 1910

What has already changed?

BoM 2019

Rainfall – Southern wet season

• There has been a decline of around 11% in April–October rainfall in SE

Australia since the late 1990s.

• Streamflow has decreased across southern Australia.

Autumn rainfall decline

Rainfall – Northern wet season

What has already changed?

Rainfall – Last 15 yearsSub-tropical ridge has strengthened and rainfall zones have moved south

BoM 2018

• Increasing frequency and severity of heat events

Extreme Climate Events

World Economic Forum – Global Risks Report

What will KI look like in 2050?

www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au




Existing impacts on agriculture

Impacts on agriculture - Wheat

Wheat yields have stalled in Australia since 1990, with productivity gains only keeping pace with climate change

Hochman et al. 2017

Impacts on agriculture - Wheat

Hochman et al. 2017

Impacts on agriculture - Grapes

• Maturation date has advanced by 8 days per decade. • 44 vineyard blocks across 12 regions 1946 - 2009

• The Tasmanian Vineyard area has grown by 540% over the last 20 years.

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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

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Webb et al. 2012Hochman et al. 2017

Maturation dates advancing about eight days per decade

Webb et al. 2012Day of the Year

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Wine – Pinot Noir

Impacts on agriculture – Grapes

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2016 Weekly Grape Intake

compare 2002 to 2015 Vintage Average

Source: Brown Brothers

Impacts on agriculture - Cotton

Cotton industry in Southern NSW and Vic

Since 2001• Cotton acreages increased by 420%• Cotton production increased by 700%

• Cotton now in Victoria• Combination of technology and climate change

Impacts on agriculture – Pastures

Based on A1FI emissions (highest) scenario

Cullen, Eckard et al (2009)

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2030 climate

2070 climate

Will change the seasonal pattern of pasture growth

With higher pasture growth rates in winter and early spring

but a contraction of the spring growing season

Impacts on agriculture – PasturesPast 15 years

The last 15 years look more like the 2030/2050 predicted in 2009

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1971-1999 2000-2015

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Cullen, Eckard et al (2009)

Impacts on agriculture – Pasturespast 15 years

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Perera, Cullen, Eckard (2018)

Increasing in variability in pasture growth

Cause of changing pasture patterns


Cumulative spring and summer soil water deficit 1960-2015

Tiller death in Fescue


Impacts on agriculture –Soil Carbon in Future Climates

-100%

-80%

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-20%

0%

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60%

Calcarosol: highC Calcarosol: low C Sodosol: high CSodosol: low C

Chromosol: highC Chromosol: low C

Vertosol: highC

Vertosol: lowC

Change in 2070-2090 average stocking compared to detrended climate

8.5 hot/dry 8.5 warm/dry 4.5 hot/dry 4.5 warm/dry 8.5 intermediate

4.5 intermediate 4.5 hot/wet 4.5 warm/wet 8.5 hot/wet 8.5 warm/wet

Birchip Hamilton

Wetter

Drier

Change in 2070/90 average SR with climate change

Calcarosol Sodosol Chromosol Vertisol

High C Low C High C Low C High C Low C High C Low C

Meyer et al. (2017)

80 – 95% reduction in SR 40 – 50% reduction in SR

• Historical dairy annual productivity growth

– 1.6% (ABARES)

• Additional productivity growth to maintain profitability under CC by 2040:

– Fleurieu Peninsula = 0.6% per year

– Gippsland = 0.6% per year

– Tasmania = 0.3% per year

Underlying loss of productivity growth in dairy

Cullen et al. (2017)




Adapting to the changes

• Climate change adaptation

– Can be viewed as an opportunity not a threat

• What does the future look like for KI?

• How does that make us different from competitors? – e.g. maritime climate means much less temperature

extremes?

– Rainfall may not be as severely affected as mainland

• What new business opportunities does this open up?

So what do we do?

Adaptive Framework

Incremental adaptation

Systems adaptation

Transformational adaptation

Adapted from Howden

Adaptive Framework

• Adjusting practices

– Change lambing timing (e.g. adjust joining)

– Sow earlier (avoid heat at maturity)

• Changing Systems

– Change products (e.g. sheep to wheat)

– Change markets (e.g. boutique wine)

• Transforming

– Physically shift production area

– Change production systems (e.g. rice to wheat)

– Enter/ create new markets (e.g. Bush tucker)

Strategy Method or Action

Remembering the future Temporal analogues e.g. learn from past droughts

Visiting the future Spatial analogues e.g. learn fromwarmer & drier sites

Modelling the future Climate trend analysis, climateprojections from GCMS, systemsAnalyses

Preparing for the future Develop adaptation technologies andmanagement, adaptive capacity andadoption systems

Adaptation

Howden 2018

Incremental Adaptation Horticulture example

• Netting

• Dormancy breaking chemicals

• Overhead sprinklers

• Evaporative cooling

• Pruning management to manage maturity

Incremental Adaptations - Pastures

Moore, 2011


Moore, 2011


Moore, 2011

Transformational adaptation exampleBrown Brothers Vineyards reclassification

Source: Brown Brothers

Vineyard Region Mean Jan Temp (oC)

Mystic Park Murray Darling 23.5

Milawa King Valley (N.E. Vic) 22.9

Heathcote Central Vic 22.3

Banksdale King Valley (N.E. Vic) 20.9

The Hazards East Coast (Tas) 16.9

Kayena Tamar Valley (Tas) 16.6




Policy implications

Greenhouse gas emissions -Paris Agreement

• Net zero emissions from 2050

– Any remainder GHG emissions in the second half of the century need to be offset

– Business and governments are aiming to comply

Greenhouse gas emissions - Supply chain responses

• Fonterra– 30% less GHG EI / litre milk sourced and

processed in New Zealand by 2030– Climate-neutral growth to 2030 for pre-

farmgate emissions from a 2015 base year

• Unilever– Reducing the GHG impact of their

products by 50% by 2030, compared to baseline of 2010

• Mondelez – 15% less operational GHG EI from 2010

to 2015

• Nestle– 35% less GHG EI on 2005 baseline

• Kellogg Company– 15% less GHG EI by 2020

• Pfizer– 20% less GHG EI by 2020 (60 to 80% by 2050)

• Wilmar international– 89.72% less GHG from 2013 to 2020

• Cargill– 5% less GHG EI by 2020 compared to 2015

• SAB Miller– 25% reduction kg CO2e/hl lager (against 2010

baseline)

• Olam– 10% less GHG EI by 2020

• Note: Focused on carbon footprint = Emissions intensity (kg CO2e/kg milk)• A reflection of lack of mitigation options

• Of the 100 largest economies 69 are companies and 31 are countries• Government policy may now be less influential than market forces

(Unilever 2010; Fonterra 2017)

Greenhouse gas emissionsOther industries

• Meat and Livestock Australia– Australian beef can be carbon neutral by 2030 (CN30)– given the right industry, R&D and policy settings

• Richard Norton, CEO

• Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil– “MS carbon neutral” initiative– Including livestock

• New Zealand – Biological Emissions Reference Group (BERG)– Proposed Zero Carbon Bill

• IPCC report– Diet choice is part of the solution

http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/uploads/brazilian_subnational.png

http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/uploads/brazilian_subnational.png

FAIRR Index

FAIRR - an index to analyse livestock production against the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).A resource for institutional investors on risk of investment in livestock.

Fonterra

Inghams

AACo

Tassal

Good Poor







Carbon Neutral Agriculture

Comparative GHG emissions between systems

Browne et al 2011

Typical farm emissions profile

N-Beef0.12 t CO 2 e/ha14 t CO2e/t beef

Eckard, Grainger & de Klein 2010; Browne et al. 2011

0%

CH4 -

Enteric

96%

CH4 -

Manure

0%

N2O - N

Fertiliser

0%

N2O -

Indirect

1%

N2O -

Dung, Urine

3%

Dairy4 – 45 t CO 2 e/ha8 – 21 t CO 2 e/t MS

Grains 0.2 - 1 t CO2e/ha0.04 t/CO2e/t grain

Typical Farm Emissions

Wheat & CanolaGHG/ha = 0.19 t CO2e/haGHG/t = 0.07 t CO2e/t grain

Wool – self replacingGHG/ha = 1.2 t CO2e/haGHG/DSE = 0.20 t CO2e/DSE

Carbon neutral case studies

• Trees for carbon credits– Struggle to match milk value of land

– Leddin et al. (2012)

• Combining multiple benefits– Salinity, biodiversity, aesthetics…– Shade and shelter for livestock

• Heat and cold stress– Leddin et al. (2012)

– Income diversification/ financial resilience • Carbon offset income • Timber income

– Nutrient sink areas in dairy catchments – Capital appreciation

• 20% tree coverage = 4% price premium– Polyakov et al. (2015)

• How do we design trees on farm for these multiple objectives?

Rethinking trees on farm




Climate change impacts on GHG

• Soil organic matter/ soil carbon

– Long-term dairy pastures

• High fertility + high rainfall = high SOM

• SOC possibly decreasing

– Under high stocking rates and N– Schipper et al. 2010

– Under climate change in SE Australia– Meyer et al. 2018

• Reliance on SOC as an offset may be limited

Is net zero GHG emissions dairy farming possible?

• Enteric CH4 and N cycling – Two largest environmental impacts

– Also two largest inefficiencies in the system

• Current mitigation potential – 50 - 60% from combined options

• e.g. diet supplements, low emitting feeds, breeding, rumen manipulation

• Most options not cost-effective yet

• Climate change may necessitate – More diverse (adapted/resilient) farming systems

– Possibly more trees on dairy farms

CH4

The Carbon Cycle in livestock

Litter-C

Microbial Decomposition

SO-C

Leaching-C

CO2

CHO

After Eckard, 2009

meat, wool, milk - C

~Half of all products/compounds in farming is carbon

Humus-C

PO-C

Sequestration*

• Social licence to operate

– GHG

• Rising vegetarianism

– Synthetic meat & milk

Why Carbon Farming?

(after Thornton 2010)

• Livestock methane and N use efficiency

– Two largest environmental impacts

– Also two largest inefficiencies in the system

• Current mitigation potential

– 50 - 60% from combined options

• e.g. diet supplements, low emitting feeds, breeding, rumen manipulation

• Most options not cost-effective yet

• Climate change may necessitate

– More diverse (adapted/resilient) farming systems

– Possibly more trees on dairy farms

Carbon neutral agriculture?

Documents

Climate change and Australian Agriculture Click to edit Master ......20 40 60 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Ellinbank 1971-1999 2000-2015 an Feb ar Apr ay Jun Jul Aug Sep t v ec Terang 2000-2015