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Climate Change and Agriculture: ensuring food production is not
threatened.
EPA Public Lecture Series on Climate Change -Dublin - 15 March 2011
Alexandre Meybeck, FAO
A triple Challenge
• More food, in quantity, quality and diversity, everywhere for everyone
• Adapt to Climate Change
• Contribute to mitigate Climate Change
Food and Nutrition Security
• Availability
• Accessibility
• Utilisation
• Stability
Towards 9 billion in 2050
Meat consumption in developing countries
FAO 2006
Poultry
Pork
OvineBovine
Biofuels
A1B: 2080-2099 relative to 1980-1999, boreal winter (IPPCC 2007)
(summer) growing season temperature Current versus model projections
Source: Naylor R. and Battisti D. 2008 (pers comm)
Mean changes in precipitation 2080-2099 to 1980-1999
Dryer Wetter
scenario A1B, IPCC 2007
Areas of current physical and economic water scarcity
Sea level rise will impact important production areas
Rice in Bangladesh South Delta
Impacts on ecosystems
Main effects on agricultural production
• Decrease of production in certain areas
• Changes in the geography of productions
• Increased variability of production
Projected yields in Morocco
A: irrigated maize and irrigated seasonal vegetables - B: irrigated fruits and vegetables - C: fodder crops and
vegetables - D: rainfed cereals and legumes - E: rainfed wheat and barley - F: Other rainfed crops.
Irrigated crops
Rainfedcrops
Yield Variation
0%
Climatic risks for Coffee production in Brazil (Embrapa)
2010 2070 (scenario A2)
Green: low climatic riskWhite: high climatic riskMauve: irrigation necessaryPink: irrigation recommendedYellow: risk of frostBlue: risk of high temperature
Main impacts of CC on livestock
• Increased risk of heat stress, intensity and frequency
• Availability of water
• Quantity and quality of available and accessible feed
• Modifications in the distribution, intensity and frequency of diseases and parasites (?)
Cap Verde
Wild foods
Slovenia
Productivity trends by 2050
Source: IPCC (2007)
Impact on Food and Nutrition Security
• Impacts on the most vulnerable countries
• Impacts on the most vulnerable people, including small holders
• Impacts on malnutrition
What contribution to mitigation?
Agriculture and Forestry in Global Emissions (IPCC)
Greenhouse gas emission sources/removals in agriculture
Emissions of the agricultural sector (IPCC 2007)
Technical mitigation potential (IPCC 2007)
Food Systems more efficient and resilient
• More food, in quantity, quality and diversity • Adapt to Climate Change• Contribute to mitigate Climate Change
• More resource efficient: use less land, water, inputs to produce more food sustainably
• More resilient to change and shocks
Sustainable intensification of crop production
• Better management of water• Integrated nutrient management• Conservation agriculture• Genetic resources• Ecosystems’ functions• Diversification
Exploitable yield gaps for maize in Africa
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Malaw i(n=4566)
Ethiopia(n=310)
Nigeria(n=2501)
Uganda(n=461)
Mali (n=163) Mozambique(n=508)
Ton
per h
ecta
re
Average national yield Average yield in farm demonstrations
Rain water harvesting
Zaï pits
Nutrient management
Bangladesh
Legumes
Croatia
Conservation Agriculture
Ghana
Genetic resourcesLima: International Potato Center
“Seed systems”
Seed production in Haiti
Efficiency in the livestock sector
Gill et al. (2010)Gill et al (2010)
Death rate of calves
Relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and output per cow
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000
Output per cow, kg FPCM per year
kg C
O2-
eq. p
er k
g FP
CM
Pastoral systems
Intensive systems
GHG
Milk
Biodigestors
Cambodia
Resilience in pastoral systems
Resilience in “Industrial” systems
• Heat stress– Buildings (projections)– Management (previsions)
• Feed accessibility– Increased variability of production and
trade– Increased price volatility
• Flexibility
Diversification
Nepal
Learning from Shinyanga, Tanzania: Restoring 500,000 ha of degraded grasslands
to higher productivity by adapting traditional Ngitili agro-pastoral management
Crop-Livestock Systems
Rice-Fish systems
Madagascar
Grassland & rangeland management
Tunisia
Agroforestry
Landscape approach
Rwanda, Nile Basin
Food chain approaches
Food losses
Africa(SSA)
Europe
Cereals 19% 31%
Fruits & vegetables
51,6% 46%
Meat 27% 22%
Milk 25% 12%(FAO 2011)
Cereal lossesAgricultural production
Postharvest handling & storage
Processing & packaging
Distribution
Consumption
Total
Africa (SSA)
6% 8% 3,5% 2% 1% 19%
Europe 2% 4% 0,5% 2% 25% 31%
Field Consumer
Fruits & vegetables lossesAgricultural production
Postharvest handling & storage
Processing & packaging
Distribution
Consumption
Total
Africa (SSA)
10% 9% 25% 17% 5% 52%
Europe 22% 5% 2% 10% 19% 46%
Field Consumer
Reduce food lossesMetallic silos in Afghanistan
Cooking
Ghana
Increase systemic resilience & efficiencyPolicies, Institutions, Finances
Manage risks
• monitoring• vulnerability assessment• identification of (ex-ante) damage
reduction measures • early action• Reparation of losses to productive
assets
Enabling farmers to change
Change of practice
Investment needs for agriculture in developing countries
Needs
Funding
Agricultural R&D annual growth rates
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Asia & Pacific Latin America& Caribbean
West Asia &North Africa
Developingcountries
High-incomecountries
Ann
ual g
row
th ra
te (p
erce
ntag
e)
1976-81 1981-91 1991-2000
Trade for efficiency & resilience
• Link small holders to markets– Infrastructures– Transparency
• International markets- Information, transparency- Price volatility
Governance
• Need to address comprehensively Food Security and Climate Change, both Adaptation & Mitigation
• At every level, local, national, regional
Cancun Agreement
• Cancun Adaptation Framework • REDD+ (drivers of deforestation)• Green Climate Fund (balanced
allocation between adaptation and mitigation)
• NAMA’s
Link Food Security & Climate Change in international Fora
• CFS has requested a study to HLPE on Food Security & Climate Change
• Cancun Adaptation Framework has to include Food Security concerns