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C DMC. Climate Change: Always the Bridesmaid?. Hadi Dowlatabadi Canada Research Chair, UBC Climate Decision-Making Center, CMU University Fellow, RFF December 7 2006 [email protected]. Outline. Is climate change the primary concern of anyone but the climate impacts community? - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Climate Change:Always the Bridesmaid?
Hadi Dowlatabadi
Canada Research Chair, UBC
Climate Decision-Making Center, CMU
University Fellow, RFF
December 7 2006
C DMC
C DMC
207.12.2006
Outline
• Is climate change the primary concern of anyone but the climate impacts community?
• Do we have decision-aiding approaches that are climate change capable?
NO! But all we want is better decisions.
C DMC
307.12.2006
Views of Climate
• Context
• Determinant
• Hazard
• Resource
Source: Riebsame, 1985
CONTROL+ALT+DELETE
Source: www.impawards.com/.../ wag_the_dog_ver3.jpg http://samiam.com/uploaded_images/an-inconvenient-truth-702835.jpg
C DMC
507.12.2006
Australian Agri-drought
• 1997 we completed a project on adaptation in Australian agriculture.
• We expected ENSO effects to have made the sector particularly aware of adaptation issues.
• We expected adaptation to climate change to be a primary driver of their choices…
C DMC
607.12.2006
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Normalized Precipitation Yield t/Ha
Rainfall & Wheat yield:1950-1990
C DMC
707.12.2006
Rainfall, Yield, and profits:1950-1990
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
Normalized Precipitation Yield t/Ha Farming Return
Coefficient of variation higher in profit than yield
C DMC
807.12.2006
Multi-stress
• Weather
• Internal markets
• External markets
• C+N cycle disturbances
• Pests
• Soil & water degradation
• Financial & currency markets
C DMC
907.12.2006
Multi-Responses
• Storage
• Insurance
• Engineering
• Management
• Land use
• R&D
• Incentives
• Disaster Aid
• …
C DMC
1007.12.2006
Characterizing Interactions
Stresses
Responses
Weather Internal Markets
Export Markets
C & N Cycles
disturbance
Pests Soil & Water
Degradation
Response time/
frequency
Storage Low Low Low - Low - < 2 years
Insurance Low Low Low - Low - 1 year
Engineering Low - - - - High < 10 years
Management High Low Low High High High > 1 year
Land-use allocation
High - - Low Low Low > 25 years
R & D Low Low Low Low Low Low 5 to 25 years
Incentives Low High High - - High 1 per 5 years
Disaster Aid Low - - - - - 1 per 10 years
Impact 0.3 1 1 0.2 0.5 1
Frequency 1 10 - 20 1 > 100
Source: D. Greatz, H. Dowlatabadi, M. Kandlikar, and J. Risbey (1998)
C DMC
1107.12.2006
Sea Level Rise
July 25 1995
C DMC
1307.12.2006
0
40
80
120
160
200
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Location Along the Shore (m)
Shorefront Wannabe SF A long wait Not in your life On the other side of the Tracks
homes are arrayed to enjoy the view ...
Housing modelinformation
from tax rolls
C DMC
1407.12.2006
Storm Surges + Sea Level Rise
Storm reach wrt…
Time2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000
50
100
150
200
Key SLRNo SLRSLR
Storm reach wrt…
Time2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 21000
50
100
150
200
Key SLRNo SLRSLR
Storm model information from
tide gauges
C DMC
1507.12.2006
Impacts from SLR
• We only simulate 50 years -- before there is inundation.
• But during this time there will be many storms.
• Subsequent to each storm homeowners decide about repairs, relocation, etc.
• Household level decision-making is simulated using patterns of insurance claims in combination with: assumptions about homeowner risk aversion, developer motivations, and a simple model of the real estate market.
• We run many simulation runs in order to get representative distributions of storm events over 50 years.
C DMC
1607.12.2006
damage due to SLR and STORMS
Inundationdamage
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
$ 106 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs)
Cum
ulat
ive
Prob
abil
ity
C DMC
1707.12.2006
damage With & Without Rebuilding Regulations
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
$ 106 discounted cumulative damage (50 yrs)
Cum
ulat
ive
Prob
abil
ity
Source: West, J. J., H. Dowlatabadi, et al. (2001). "Storms, investor decisions, and the economic impacts of sea level rise." Climatic Change 48: 317-42.
Source: www.geo.arizona.edu/.../ slr_usafl_3meter_lg.htm
C DMC
2007.12.2006
Why Arctic Communities?
• Expected to experience the greatest climate change,
– measured in terms of absolute temperature change and moisture transport.
• Have similar current challenges to most developing countries,
– with the exception of affiliation with source of funding.
• Access!
C DMC
2107.12.2006
Demography & Economy
• 26,000 people
– 85% Inuit
– 56% under 25 yr
• 350,000 km2 of land
– 23 communities
• Territorial budget of 960M
– 80% transferred from Federal Government
C DMC
2207.12.2006
This talk
• Context
– Health
– Education
– Culture
– Economy
• Climate Change
– Temperature
– Sea ice
– Sea level
• Opportunities
– Awareness
– Capacity to respond
– …
C DMC
2307.12.2006
Health
• The Inuit & First Nations suffer more than twice the national average in:
– Infant mortality,
– Lung cancer,
– Respiratory illnesses,
– Unintentional injury,
– Disability,
– Suicide.
C DMC
2407.12.2006
Education
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Less than Grade 9
High School
HS Certificate
Trade
University
University Degree CanadaNunavut
Source: Statistics Canada
C DMC
2507.12.2006
Ethnicity
Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.
C DMC
2607.12.2006
Oil & Gas
Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.
C DMC
2707.12.2006
The Arctic Front
Based on: mean air mass position: Li, S.M., R.W. Talbot, L.A. Barrie, R.C. Harriss, C.I. Davidson and J.-L. Jaffrezo, 1993. Seasonal and geographical variations of methane sulphanic acid in the Arctic troposphere. Atmos. Environ. 27A: 3011-3024.
C DMC
2807.12.2006
NOx Emissions
Based on: Benkovitz, C.M., T.M. Schultz, J.M. Pacyna, L. Tarrason, J. Dignon, E.C. Voldner, P.A. Spiro, A.L. Jernnifer and T.E. Graedel, 1995. Gridded inventories of anthropogenic emissions of sulfur and nitrogen. J. geophys. Res. 101: 29239.
C DMC
2907.12.2006
Lead Emissions
Based on: Pacyna, J.M., B.D. Shin and P. Pacyna, 1993b. Global emissions of lead. Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Ottawa.
C DMC
3007.12.2006
Ocean Currents
Based on: Macdonald, R.W. and J.M. Bewers, 1996. Contaminants in the arctic marine environment: priorities for protection. ICES J. mar. Sci. 53: 537-563.
C DMC
3107.12.2006
DIET POPs
Based on: Hobson, K.A. and H.E. Welch, 1992. Determination of trophic relationships within a high Arctic marine food web using delta-13C and delta-15N analysis. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 84: 9-18. Hargrave, B.T., 1994. Sources and sinks of organochlorines in the Arctic marine food web. In: J.L. Murray and R.G. Shearer (eds). Synopsis of research conducted under the 1993/94 Northern Contaminants Program, pp. 178-184. Indian and Northern Affairs Canada, Ottawa, Environmental Studies 72, 459p.
C DMC
3207.12.2006
137Cs(Bq/m2)
Estimated from bomb fallout
and precipitation
Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.
C DMC
3307.12.2006
Average Cs137 in diet
(for 100Bq/m2 dispersion)
Source: AMAP 1998. AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP.
Drivers of Development
1850 1900 1950 2000
subsistencebio-resource trade
religion/schoolssmall-scale mininglarge-scale mining
oil and gasmilitary
scientific researchservices
government
WWII
Source: www.keepwintercool.org/ earthimage.html
Partner communitiesOne of the routes for the NW Passage
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CLIMATESUMMARY/2003/IMAGES/annual.1954-2003.tchange.png
From: http://www.uwgb.edu/dutchs/graphic0/seismol/canisos.gif
PreDorset
Coping with Sea Level Change in 4000 yrs
ContemporaryHistoricDorsetSource: Susan D.M. Rowley
C DMC
4107.12.2006
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.anom.jpg
C DMC
4207.12.2006
Regional Patterns Differ
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/current.365.jpg
www.sfu.ca/.../ physical%20ocean.html
Source: www.geophysics.dias.ie/. ../slave_lakes.html
C DMC
4607.12.2006
Climate vulnerability sets priorities
Sensitivity to climate change
Community priorities
Models of community adaptation:
Response
C DMC
4707.12.2006
All vulnerabilities set priorities
Sensitivity to multiple stresses
Sensitivity to climate change
Community priorities
Models of community adaptation:
Response
C DMC
4807.12.2006
Response
Community control
Local control is limited
Sensitivity to multiple stresses
Sensitivity to climate change
Community priorities
Models of community adaptation:
C DMC
5007.12.2006
Successful Responses
A fuller pictureModels of community adaptation:
Adaptive Capacity
Community control
Sensitivity to multiple stresses
Sensitivity to climate change
Community priorities
External resources
C DMC
5107.12.2006
Hypotheses
• H0: Communities identify risks from climate
change as a special priority.
• H1a: Communities enjoy control commensurate
with their priorities.
• H1b: Communities enjoy control over matters
involving climate change adaptation.
• H2: CEDO priorities and resources match needs
for broader community development planning.
C DMC
5207.12.2006
Nunavut Economic Development Strategy (NEDS) 2003
THE LAND
- Respecting the land
- Maintaining our mixed economy
- Building on the knowledge of our Elders
OUR PEOPLE
- Economic development for youth
- Education and training
- Basic needs: housing, hospitals and schools
OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES
- Community capacity building and organizational development
- Small and Inuit business development
- Building the knowledge base
OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY
- Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work
- Sector development and support systems
- Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband
- Accessing the global marketplace
C DMC
5307.12.2006
Method
• NEDS 2003
– 143 Action Items (excluding 24 implementation items)
• NEDA priority identification
• Our informed judgments about broader community priorities, sensitivity and levels of control
Caveats:
• Action items as units of observation.
• NEDS as reflection of priorities
– broad guiding principles
– 4 forms of capital: E,H,S,P
C DMC
5407.12.2006
High Community Priorities
THE LAND
- Respecting the land
o Maintaining our mixed economy
- Building on the knowledge of our Elders
OUR PEOPLE
o Economic development for youth
o Education and training
o Basic needs: housing, hospitals and schools
OUR COMMUNITY ECONOMIES
o Community capacity building and organizational development
- Small and Inuit business development
- Building the knowledge base
OUR TERRITORIAL ECONOMY
- Putting the Nunavut Land Claims Agreement to work
- Sector development and support systems
- Infrastructure: from buildings to broadband
- Accessing the global marketplace
C DMC
5507.12.2006
CharacterizingCommunity Priorities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Community Priorities
Actions
None Low Medium High
C DMC
5607.12.2006
Climate Sensitivity & Community Priority
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
None Low Medium High
Climate Sensivity
Action Items
Not a priority Low priority Medium priority High priority
C DMC
5707.12.2006
Community control
Community Priorities
Sensitivity to multiple stresses
Sensitivity to climate change
High Community priorities9%
91%
C DMC
5807.12.2006
Characterizing Community Control
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Community Control
Number of Action ItemsNone Low Medium High
C DMC
5907.12.2006
Community Control & Community Priority
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
None Low Medium High
Community Priorities
Number of Action Items
No Control Low Control Medium Control High Control
C DMC
6007.12.2006
Community Control &Climate Sensitivity
0
8
16
24
32
40
48
None Low Medium High
Climate Sensitivity
Number of Action Items
No Control Low Control Medium Control High Control
C DMC
6107.12.2006
Characterizing Community Priorities
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Community Priorities
Number of Action ItemsNone Low Medium High
C DMC
6207.12.2006
Characterizing Community & CEDO Priorities
0
20
40
60
80
100
Community CEDO
Priorities
Number of Action Items
None Low Medium High
“Make the implementation of the community development plan the primary task of the community economic developer.”
C DMC
6307.12.2006
Institutional Challenge
XH0: Communities identify risks from climate
change as a special priority.
XH1a: Communities enjoy control
commensurate with their priorities.
XH1b: Communities enjoy control over matters
involving climate change adaptation.
XH2: CEDO priorities and resources match
needs for broader community development planning
C DMC
6407.12.2006
COMMUNITY
ClimateChanges
Policies
ResourceDevelopment
PopulationGrowth
Pollution &Contaminants
Values
Investment &Funding
Technology
Climate change Is not a separable focus of effort
C DMC
6507.12.2006
Adaptation within existing priorities
• Basic needs of the community are not being met. Their priorities are: employment, housing, health and education.
• Response to climate change can aggravate or help to resolve these primary concerns.
• Adaptation adds to the uncertainty of strategies to achieve planning goals.
C DMC
6607.12.2006
Conventional strategic planning is not a shared concept
• Conventional strategic planning relies on a shared understanding of:
– Long-term;
– Risk;
– Uncertainty;
– Options & opportunities.
C DMC
6707.12.2006
Clues to a differentperspective on planning
• Cultural history
– Comfort with short-term adaptation and uncertainty
– Knowledge based on observations and experience
– Ways of gathering information and using it in decision-making (e.g. Parlee et al.)
• Perceptions of risks (e.g. Furgal et al.)
• Trade-offs: valuation, acceptability, frame of experience
• Values: recalibration given choices (Tribe), evolving culture
C DMC
6807.12.2006
Planning within the context of Inuit values
• Basic differences in values and perceptions need to be characterized and incorporated into decision aids.
• Tools for use in Nunavut need to reflect the key differences critical to strategic planning and adaptive management …
Col
lect
ive
deci
sion
-mak
ing
Agency
Limited detection
Imperfect knowledge
Values that change with contexts/time.
Blunt mechanisms for realizing goals
...we perceive changes in our environment,
...evaluate various options,
...implement achosen strategy,
Evaluation & Feedback
Human
... attribute their origin & project their future trends,
C DMC
7007.12.2006
Summary
• Few decisions hinge on climate alone AND what we do is rarely optimal.
• But climate sets the context and concern about change AND allows us to ask: what are we doing and why? Creating an opening for doing better.
C DMC
7107.12.2006
Acknowledgements
Thanks to:
• Lara Whitley-Binder & the Climate Impacts Group for inviting me here.
• Michelle Boyle, Dean Graetz, Milind Kandlikar, Mitch Small, James Risbey & Jason West who are co-authors on much of what has been presented here.
• US National Science Foundation, Canada Research Chairs, Canadian Foundation for Innovation, Natural Resources Canada, Environment Canada, Resources for the Future, Electric Power Research Institute, Exxon-Mobil Education Foundation and Social and Humanities Research Council for financial support.
C DMC
7207.12.2006
Reported cases of Dengue 1980-96
Source: US National Assessment
C DMC
7307.12.2006
BioticPhysical
Effects from each of these changes occur in… Effects from each of these changes occur in… multiple dimensionsmultiple dimensions
Economic Societal
C DMC
7407.12.2006
circumpolar
regional
community
… and at multiple scales global
C DMC
7507.12.2006
Imported food
Infrastructure
Employment / Income
Traditional diet
# and size of communities
Human health
Harvest species
Bioaccumulation
Ecosystem and species composition
Traditional culture loss
Local land and water pollution
Internal pollution
Hydrological pattern changes
Swamps, slumping, erosion
Access
Resource exploitation
Northward shift of biomes and treeline Permafrost thaw
Sea/river ice melt
PHYSICAL BIOTIC
SOCIETAL ECONOMIC
CIRCUMPOLAR
COMMUNITY
CLIMATE CHANGE
EXTERNAL POLLUTION
RESOURCE COMPANIES
EXTERNAL INVESTMENT
PEOPLE
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
- +
+
-
REGIONAL
TECHNOLOGY
+ +
Education
© M. Boyle 2003
C DMC
7607.12.2006
Partysympatory Methods
C DMC
7707.12.2006
The Stones Have it
• We need to understand climate change
• Imbedded in a broader context of change
• Evaluated by people whose values and means change
• …
Source:http://www.mick-jagger.com/oldstones.jpg
C DMC
7807.12.2006
A Stochastic EnvironmentWhere Attribution is Difficult
Climate is a stochastic process:
– the climate of any location involves variability in realized weather;
– extreme weather events occur rarely;
– the most visible/memorable impacts are due to these extremes;
– rarity of extreme events makes detection of trends difficult;
– often various impacts are inappropriately attributed to weather extremes.
e.g., A stiff breeze in autumn leads to a shower of dead leaves. But we all recognize that the breeze did not kill the leaves.
Economics is stochastic process:
– the economy of any location involves variability in realized growth;
– extreme economic events occur rarely;
– the most visible/memorable impacts are due to these extremes;
– rarity of extreme events makes detection of trends difficult;
– often various impacts are inappropriately attributed to economic extremes.
e.g., A rise in oil prices leads to a flood of auto-worker layoffs. Yet the public attributes this to high oil prices.
C DMC
7907.12.2006
New concepts or Misconceptions?
• Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing adverse health effects.
• A demonstrably good strategy will win approval.
• Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors.
• Expressions of uncertainty aid decision-making.
• AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given.
• …
C DMC
8007.12.2006
Integrated Assessment
• From source to transformation to impacts…
X
• Interventions of all kinds at all points possible…
X
• Characterization of variations across populations…
X
• Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables…
C DMC
8107.12.2006
The problem & its possible solutions
Population
EconomicActivity
Fossil energy&
Land cover
Atmospheric& climate
change
Impacts
Family planning
Curbing greed
Goi
ng g
reen
Engineering the earth
Ada
ptat
ion
C DMC
8207.12.2006
Integrated Assessment
• From source to transformation to impacts…
X
• Interventions of all kinds at all points possible…
X
• Characterization of variations across populations…
X
• Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables…
ONLY ADD DETAIL WHERE
VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH
C DMC
8307.12.2006
Integrated Assessment
• From source to transformation to impacts…
X
• Interventions of all kinds at all points possible…
X
• Characterization of variations across populations…
X
• Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables…
ONLY ADD DETAIL WHERE
VALUE OF INFORMATION IS HIGH
VALUE OF INFORMATION IS ONLY HIGH
WHERE IT CAN AFFECT POLICY CHOICE
C DMC
8407.12.2006
My Misconceptions
• A demonstrably good strategy will win approval.
¬ NYC and HIV-AIDS
• Expressions of uncertainty & VOI aid decision-making.
¬ NAPAP, Climate Change,…
• Regulatory fairness means homogenous actors.
¬ Adaptive regulations.
• AQ co-benefits of GHG reductions are a given.
¬ UK Climate policy
• Costly emission reductions mean difficulty in reducing adverse health effects.
¬ Partnership with Translink
C DMC
8507.12.2006
Strategy Within What Context?
• Social norms and acceptance:
– Individual or collective responsibility?
– Fatalism or social contract?
• History:
– What regulation/contracts already in place?
– What relationships reign among stakeholders?
…
• And other challenges being faced …
C DMC
8607.12.2006
Next Gen IA
• From source to transformation to impacts…
X
• Interventions of all kinds at all points possible…
X
• Characterization of variations across populations…
X
• Characterization of uncertainties, unknowns and unknowables…
X
• Characterization of other challenges and options
X
• Social and behavioural norms