Climate change : A research Agenda

Camilla Toulmin IIEDDublin

November 10th 2011

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Established 1971 Non-profit policy “think and do” tank Mission: to build a fairer, more sustainable

world, using evidence, action and influence in partnership with others

90+ people London and Edinburgh Turnover 2011 £20m

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Knowledge Spaces

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What we know about climate change CO2 in atmosphere rising faster than anticipated by IPCC

Warming of climate system

Systematic change in rainfall in most regions

Ocean temperatures up + sea level rise

Loss of arctic sea ice extent

More intense & extreme weather events

Africa - Water and rainfall

Much more intense water cycle Dry areas increasingly drought prone (Northern and

Southern Africa) Increased rainfall + greater flood risk (East Africa) Uncertain rainfall trends West Africa Effects on health, livelihoods, water security – women

and girls worst hit Conflicts and trade-offs: shared river basins, hydro vs

irrigation, herding vs farming, urban water transfers By 2020, >250m will suffer increased w stress

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HADLEY

Africa - Food and farming

Projected reductions in crop yields in dry areas of 50% by 2020

Low lying coastal agriculture at risk from sea-water flooding and salinisation

Shifts in grazing lands, livestock disease, crop-livestock relations

In very few areas, increased temp brings longer growing season, improved farming conditions

Major shifts in land productivity and values eg. irrigated land in dry areas, flood prone lands

Adapting to climate change – dealing with risk and uncertainty

Building resilience: what’s the difference between risk and uncertainty?

Diversification Farmland and crop contracts Insurance Collective mechanisms Lessons from adaptation to drought Community based adaptation: building local

innovation systems

Kilimo Salama process

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Re-greening the Sahel

Ecosystems, forests and biodiversity

Poor depend most on environmental assets + ecosystem services

Economic value of current rate of loss estimated at US$2-5 trillion per year

Increased stress from changes in temp, rainfall accelerate losses

Thresholds and tipping points

Cities and climate change

Urban regions most at risk of flooding located in middle and low income nations – Nile delta, Gulf of Guinea, Bay of Bengal, cities of Maputo, Beira, Cape Town, Durban, Mumbai, Shanghai

95% global population growth in next 30 years will take place in cities in developing world

Slums 50%+ of urban population and most vulnerable to flooding + land slides

Costs of adaptation to 1m sea-level rise could cost 5-10% of GDP

Current focus on low C investment needs to complement adaptation for most vulnerable

Urban population in low-elevation coastal zone

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Politics, conflict and security

Climate change brings significant political consequences due to uneven impact, winners and losers – globally, regionally, within countries

Large scale migration, impoverishment, people seeking new land bring potential for conflict and security

Especially where guns widespread, young men without jobs, limited government capacity = political opportunism

Unintended consequences of climate policy

Large scale land acquisitions – food and biofuels – environmental and social costs

New market opportunities?

Agriculture a principal source of GHG emissions – can emission reductions be sold to voluntary/formal C market? Defining/measuring C service Minimising transaction costs Risks of smallholder evictions

REDD+ funding Defining/measuring C service Managing the funds Risks of smallholder evictions

Lots of questions…..

What does climate resilient development look like?

What best means to support adaptation – funds, channels, level? If accountable govt is key, how to support this?

Any positive opportunities from climate change available to poor?

Does financial crisis make progress easier or harder – can we turn crisis into opportunity?

What impact $200/b oil on agriculture, transport, trade?