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Climate Change. Michael McKenna MWR Strategies April 2008. Methodology. MWR Strategies April 2008. Focus Groups. Eight groups consisting of 10-12 registered voters in the middle of the political spectrum In 2, majority identified climate change as “immediate threat” - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Climate Change
Michael McKenna
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Methodology
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Focus Groups• Eight groups consisting of 10-12 registered voters in the
middle of the political spectrum• In 2, majority identified climate change as “immediate threat”• In remaining 6, majority identified it as “major problem”• Locations
– Atlanta– Tampa– Detroit– Minneapolis– LA– Denver– Houston– Philadelphia
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Nationwide Survey• 1000 registered voters, 3.1% margin of error
• Conducted March 10 to March 14, 2008
• Random digit dialing to home phones
• Stratified for region, gender
MWR Strategies
April 2008
The issue context . . .
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Where do we fit in?• Environment is a third tier issue
– It is tough to identify a candidate who has lost because of environmental attitude/votes
• Climate change has become most important issue within the set, but even that has diminished somewhat recently
• Reducing dependence on imported energy much more important.
• Global warming not identified as most important global issue
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What is the most important issue facing the United States right now? (open code)
19%
44%
6% 5% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Iraq Economy nat'l sec. energy health care
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What is the most/second most important issue facing the United States right now? (open code)
45%
68%
11% 10%
15%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Iraq Economy nat'l sec. energy health care
MWR Strategies
April 2008
What about the environment?
– 2% identified as most important
– 2% identified is as 2nd most important
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What would you say is the most important environmental issue facing the United States right now? (open code)
25%
16%13%
7%4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
globalwarming
clean water clean air alternativeenergy
energy ind.
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What will be the most important environmental issue or challenge facing the US in the long-term? (open code)
28%
15%
10%
7%4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
climatechange
clean water clean air alternativeenergy
energy ind.
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Wait a minute . . .
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Which is the most pressing or important environmental issue facing the United States right now? (closed code)
(from February 2007)
37%
13% 12%10% 9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
globalwarming
air pollution toxic orhazardous
waste
populationgrowth
waterpollution
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What will be the most pressing or importantenvironmental issue facing the United States in the long-term? (closed code)
(from February 2007)
38%
9% 12% 11%6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
globalwarming
air pollution toxic orhazardous
waste
populationgrowth
waterpollution
MWR Strategies
April 2008
. . . how does thepriorities argument do?
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Which of the following is the most pressing or urgent global problem?
32% 25%22%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
curing disease feeding the hungry safe drinkingwater
global warming
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How important is affordable energy to our economy?
89%
8%
2% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
very somewhat a little not at all
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“What is the most important aspect of the energy we use? (open code)
24%
13% 12%11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
cost/affordability country of origin environmentaleffect
reliability
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Which is more important to you, addressing global warming or reducing our reliance on foreign sources of energy?”
20%
72%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
addressing global warming reducing our reliance on foreignsources of energy
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Which is more important to you, addressing global warming or reducing our reliance on foreign sources of energy?”
20%
36%
72%
52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
addressing global warming reducing our reliance on foreignsources of energy
all liberals
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Would you support a global warming plan that resulted in increasing our dependence on foreign sources of energy?”
22%
71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
yes no
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“America should put more emphasis on domestic energy sources like coal, even if that means we move more slowly on meeting environmental goals.”
58%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
agree disagree
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Economics
• Voters have no illusions about who pays for things
• They have limited appetite for increased costs
• And very nearly no appetite for job losses– females, self-identified liberals and those who voted
against Bush tend to care more about job loss
• The tenuous economy overhangs the entire conversation
“If the federal government requires companies to take actions that cost them money, how likely is it that those companies will pass along increased costs to consumers in electric bills, gasoline
prices, and home heating bills?”
81%
13%
3% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
very somewhat not very not at all
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Is the economy strong enough right now to incur the additional costs associated with addressing global warming?”
28%
65%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
yes no
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Is the economy strong enough right now to incur the additional costs associated with addressing global warming?”
28%
20%
65%
76%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
yes no
all Midwest
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices, or higher heating bills,
to address global warming?”
Mean = 554 dollars
Median = 50 dollars
*70% of respondents responded $500 or less
*18% responded more than $500
*35% responded zero
“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address
global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean)
554556
339
293
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
all whites AAs <40K/yr
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address
global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean)
554
671
439
345
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
all men women evangels
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How much would you personally be willing to pay each year, either in higher gasoline prices, higher electricity prices or higher heating bills, to address
global warming? I just need an amount in dollars.” (mean)
554
1026
286
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
all the EU is doing better the US is doing better
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“(if you knew that) The additional costs to the average household as a result of increased prices for electricity, for gasoline, and for home heating would be 1K/$3K dollars per year (would it make you . . . to support the legislation)?”
36%
58%
26%
71%
56%
38%35%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
all @ $1000 all @$3000 libs @$1000 libs @$3000
more likely less likely
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“(if you knew that) The additional costs to the average household as a result of increased prices for electricity, for gasoline, and for home heating would be $1K/$3K dollars per year (would it make you . . . to support the legislation)?”
48%43%
26%
69%
48% 47%
31%
64%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
post-grads@$1000
post-grads@$3000>80K/yr @$1000 >80K/yr@$3000
more likely less likely
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How many jobs nationwide should we be prepared to lose as an acceptable cost for reducing carbon emissions by as
much as 80%?”
Mean = 426,000 Median = 1,000
*65% of respondents responded 100,000 or less*5% responded more than 1 million*35% responded zero* among those who think the US is doing better, 50%
responded zero.
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“How many jobs nationwide should we be prepared to lose as an acceptable cost for reducing carbon emissions by as
much as 80%?” (mean in thousands)
426
594
245
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
all men women
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“I am going to read you five statements about the legislation. For each one, I would like you to tell me whether it makes more . . . to support the
legislation.”
72% 71%
58%
49% 60%
36%
26%21%
43%44% 33%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
job losses $3000 extra costs $1000 extra costs govt' gain revenue reduce globaltemperatures
reduce carbonemissions
more likely less likely
“What percentage of our energy do you think comes from renewable or alternative energy sources?”
Mean = 23.6
Median = 18
“Can you tell me the how many billions of dollars the US government is spending each year to address climate change?”
Mean = 21.67
Median = 3.0
*42% didn’t know or refused
“Do you think carbon emissions have . . . in Europe/the US in the last 10 years?
37%
63%
21%17% 16% 16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
increased decreased same
EU US
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“Who is doing a better job of addressing global warming?
44%56%
32%
25%
18%
32% 31%
25%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
EU US don't know
all not Bush voters Bush voters
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“I am going to read you a list of actions that the US government is currently doing to address climate change. For each one I would like you to tell me
whether it is . . . important.”
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
increased fuel mileage
efficiency standards for building
new standards for appliances
tax credits for renewablesources
research into alternative energy
better tax treatment for newtechnologies
very somewhat
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is not at all certain and 10 is completely certain,
how certain do you think the science of global warming is?”
Mean = 5.8
Median = 6.0
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is not very urgent and 10 is extremely urgent, how urgent
is it that we address global warming?”
Mean = 6.5
Median = 7.0
* self-identified liberals and those who voted against Bush had medians of 10 and 9
“On that same scale, if you knew that efforts by the government to reduce global warming would result in the loss of some jobs nationwide,
how certain would the science of global warming have to be for those job losses to be justifiable?”
Mean = 7.4
Median = 8.0
* The means among females, self-identified liberals and those who voted against Bush in 2004 were above 8.0.
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“On that same scale, if efforts by the government to reduce global warming resulted in higher prices for things like gasoline, electricity,
and natural gas, how certain would the science of global warming have to be for those higher prices to be justifiable?”
Mean = 7.6
Median = 8.0
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Version A
“Which of the following is most likely to lead towards solutions to global warming and other environmental challenges?”
37%35%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
consumer demand scientists dev. bettertechnologies
govt policies
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Version B
“Which of the following is most likely to lead to the technological improvements we need to address global warming?”
57%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
consumer demand govt policies
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Version B
“Which of the following is most likely to lead to the technological improvements we need to address global warming?”
57% 54%
37%
43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
consumer demand govt policies
all liberals
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Solutions“And which of the following do you think is the most likely path to a solution?
(from February 2007)
29%
33%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
consumers demanding moreenvironmentally sensitive products
scientists and engineers developingtechnologies
governments requiring reductions incarbon emissions
MWR Strategies
April 2008
Solutions“Which of the following do you think is the most likely path to a solution?
(from January 2006)
28%
50%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
force nations by companies by law,treaty, or regulation to reduce
invest in new technologies, anddevelop processes that reduce
carbon emissions
place an economy-wide tax oncarbon emissions
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“The US should show leadership on global warming, even if nations like China and India do not follow our example.”
78%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
agree disagree
MWR Strategies
April 2008
“To help reduce carbon emissions, which of the following would you prefer?”
33%
19% 20%21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
taxes on energy,with the revenue
going to efficiencyand research
gov't regulationson companies
taxes with therevenue used to
offset other taxes
none of the above
MWR Strategies
April 2008
