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Climate and Living Marine Resources

Dr. Ned CyrDirector

NMFS Office of Science and Technology

OCO System ReviewOctober 28, 2010

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NOAA’s Living Marine Resource Responsibilities

+ Antarctic Research Program

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Magnuson Stevens Reauthorization Act

• Optimum Yield “…is prescribed on the basis of maximum sustainable yield as reduced by any relevant economic, social or ecological factor.”

• Climate will impact rebuilding plans and definition of maximum sustainable yield

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Endangered Species Act

ESA section 4(a)(1) factors for listing of species:

(A)the present or threatened destruction, modification, or curtailment of its habitat or range,

(B)overutilization for commercial, recreational, scientific, or educational purposes,

(C)disease or predation,

(D)the inadequacy of existing regulatory mechanisms; or

(E) other natural or manmade factors affecting its continued existence.

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“In general, resource managers lack specific guidance for incorporating climate change into their management actions and planning efforts.

Without such guidance, their ability to address climate change and effectively manage resources is constrained.”

August 2007 GAO Report

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• “GAO recommends that the Secretaries of Agriculture, Commerce, and the Interior develop guidance incorporating agencies’ best practices, which advises managers on how to address climate change effects on the resources they manage and gather the information needed to do so.”

• “Resource managers at our workshop also said that climate change is not a priority, in part, because of limited support from agency leaders. Specifically, resource managers discussing the coasts and oceans ecosystem said that there has been little support from agency leaders to comprehensively address climate change issues”.

GAO Report: Recommendations

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Six Climate Change Issues – Living Marine Resources

• Attribution of climate signals impacting ecosystems: long term change vs. natural variability

• Ocean warming: impacts on distribution & productivity (phenology, production, invasives)

• Impacts of loss of sea ice on living marine resources (at both poles)

• Ocean acidification impacts on marine biota• Freshwater supply & resource management• Sea level rise (natural resource implications)

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Pacific Sardine Harvest Control Rule (Pacific Fishery Management Council 1998)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Stock Biomass

U.S

. H

arv

est

(1,0

00

mt)

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

Ha

rve

st

Rate

(C

/B)

Catch (Fmsy=15%)

Catch (Fmsy=5%)

Harvest Rate (Fmsy=15%)

Harvest Rate (Fmsy=5%)

Allowable Catch Determined in Part by Ocean Temperature

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Climate Change and Extinction Risks

“Approximately 20 to 30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5°C (medium confidence).”

- IPCC Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report

Loss of Arctic Sea IceEcological Implications for NOAA-Managed

Species

September Arctic Sea Ice Measurements

Year

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mill

ions o

f S

quare

km

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5

6

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NOAA Trust ResourcesMMPA + ESA

Ringed, Ribbon,Spotted , BeardedSeals

September, 2007

+Arctic FMP

Petition To List

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ESA Case Study: Central Valley Project

• Chinook salmon and steelhead trout are listed endangered/threatened under ESA In the Sacramento River and related drainages in California

• In 2004, NMFS consulted with the State and Federal water agencies and determined that the proposed joint operation of the State and Federal Central Valley water projects was not likely to jeopardize the continued existence of listed salmon and steelhead

• Coalition of environmental groups filed suit regarding the BiOP for chinook and steelhead based in part on the fact that long-term climate impacts on water availability were not taken into account as part of the baseline

• The Bureau of Reclamation, NMFS and CALFED have reopened consultations under Section 7 of ESA regarding the BiOP

Ocean Acidification: A Consequence of Human Production of Greenhouse Gasses – Ocean Impacts & NOAA Responsibilities

Ocean AcidificationThat ‘other’ CO2 problem

• Potential impacts on shelled plankton, coral reefs (shallow and deep), bivalves and crustaceans, and food chains

• Managed resources under Coral Reef Conservation Act, MSRA, ESA

Value:Bivalves: $732M ex-vessel commercial valueCrustaceans: $1,265M ex-vessel commercial valueCombined : $1,997M ex-vessel commercial value (51% of commercial catch by $)

2010 Results

Species Increase Decrease No changeRed king crab larvae mortality growth noneGolden king crab adult mortality none noneAge-1 pollock blood CO2, bicarbonate,

cortisolnone growth, condition

Pollock eggs highest size-at-hatch at intermediate pH (7.9, 7.6)

none time to hatch

Coral species Skeleton composition44 coral and 1 sponge species

Most contained high levels of magnesium calcite (the most soluble form)

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Potential Ocean Acidification Effects on Food Webs

EcoPath Model: Busch, Harvey, and McElhany

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Monitoring the California Current Ecosystem

• Objectives:• Sample biological, chemical,

and physical oceanography, and meteorology

• Understand physical-chemical linkages and biotic response

• Observe events

• Two surface moorings• CCE-1, off Pt. Conception, CC• CCE-2 on shelf-break, upwelling

• Coordinated with CalCOFI, LTER, and CORC

• Funding: NOAA NMFS and OCO, and contributions from collaborators

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Region Observation Systems: SE Bering Sea

The only long-term biophysical moorings in the Arctic.

Primary source of climate and ecosystem information and synthesis for wide-range of

decision-makers

Key NOAA Climate and Ecosystem Program

NOAA’s North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity Program (NPCREP)

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Moving Forward

• Establish integrated regional frameworks for observations, research, modeling and decision support in all LMEs (e.g., NMFS-NCS service-level agreement, investments in NPCREP, OA, CCLME etc).

• Produce regional predictions and projections of climate change impacts on oceans

• Develop decision support tools to assess marine resource vulnerability and develop/evaluate management options.

• Build capacity to support development of future scenarios.• Increase understanding of social and economic impacts.

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Backups

NOAA’s in situ Ecological Observations Northeast U.S. Example

Trends in Sea Level Rise & Resource Impacts

• Once an important nesting island for Hawaiian green sea turtles and a primary pupping site for endangered Hawaiian monk seals

• Few feet above sea level; what would be the impacts of observed rates of SLR on Protected Species breeding and nesting habitat?

• 2006 study published by NOAA scientists in the journal Biological Conservation (Baker et al. 2006)

SLR Example: How will Protected Species critical habitats change with SLR in the NWHI Monument?Example Whaleskate IslandFrench Frigate Shoals, NWHI

1963 2002

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CCE-1, California Current Ecosystem Buoy

• CCE-1 mooring• CalCOFI station 80.80• 4000 m depth

• Deployments• Nov 2008 - Feb 2009• Re-deployed May 2009 – Dec 2009• Re-deployed Dec 2009 – Sep 2010• Re-deployed Sep 2010 – present

• Surface buoy• Atmospheric pressure, temp, velocity,CO2

• Sea-surface temp, salinity, CO2, O2

• Water currents to 500 m (ADCP)• Subsurface sensors

• 80 m - T, S, Chl-a, turbidity, pH, O2, NO3−,

cumulative biomass via radiometers• 0 to 320 m – Fish and zooplankton via Echotags• 1000 m – Marine mammal sounds

• Real-time data viewable online