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What is Development? Improvement in Human Wellbeing HDI: Per capita Income, Health, Education Technology changes the structure of the economy Ag -> Manufacturing -> Services Rural to Urban Energy Use Increases Increasing Energy use Greater efficiency of use but… Greater emissions of carbon
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CLIMATE AND DEVELOPMENT IN COPENHAGENProf. Milind Kandlikar, Liu Institute, UBC
Rich and Poor in the World Today
What is Development? Improvement in Human Wellbeing
HDI: Per capita Income, Health, Education Technology changes the structure of the
economy Ag -> Manufacturing -> Services Rural to Urban Energy Use Increases
Increasing Energy use Greater efficiency of use but… Greater emissions of carbon
Who is Responsible for Carbon Emissions?
Current vs. Historical
Who is Responsible for Carbon Emissions?
Per Capita Emissions
But is there a “Germany” within China?
Meanwhile….
Emission Pathways for < 2 C by 2050
Copenhagen ObjectivesSet up Global Emissions Target with EU and
US on boardPrice Carbon (Taxes, Permits, REDD)Engage BRIC countriesVulnerable countries and adaptation
Diverse Developing Country ResponseThose opposing binding targets
Very Large Rapidly Industrializing - China, India
Medium-sized emitters with large forests - Brazil and Indonesia
Those pushing for binding targets Existentially Threatened (Small Island States) Small and Impoverished ~50 countries with lower emissions
than UBC (e.g. Niger, Mali, Rwanda) The Rest - varying emissions and
vulnerabilities
What to Expect in Copenhagen? A binding agreement with US on board? Concessions from Large Emitters
China’s plan to reduce carbon intensity by 45% is a start
India’s plan to reduce intensity by 25%. “Make the Gringo Pay for Forest Preservation”
Brazil and REDD. Tropical Countries. A market-based framework for Tech. Transfer?
CDM is an utter failure An Adaptation Fund?
Exhortations by the most vulnerable for action (and aid)
Maldives, Bangladesh, African States
“The picture’s pretty bleak, gentlemen. The world’s climates are changing, the mammals are taking over, and we all have a brain about the size of a walnut.”