Victoria Lytle, director CliC project officeTromsø, NorwayCliC@npolar.no

Barry Goodison, Chair CliC projectVladimir Ryabinin, Joint Project Staff, WCRP

Climate and Cryosphere ProjectPresentation to NEESPI Summit (May 3-4, 2007, Helsinki, Finland)

Thanks to Tetsuo Ohata, Terry Prowse, Qin Dahe, Xiao Cunde and others

CliC Principal Goal:To assess and quantify the impacts that climatic variability and change have on components of the cryosphere and the consequences of these impacts for the climate system.CliC also seeks to determine the stability of the global cryosphere

CliC is organized around 4 themes (previously CPA’s)Theme 1 : Hydrometeorological effects of a shrinking

cryosphere

Theme 2 : Ice sheets and Sea Level Rise and theTheme 3 : Marine CryosphereTheme 4 : Global prediction of the Cryosphere

Regional Groups including Asia CliC

CliC Theme 1: The Terrestrial cryosphere and hydrometeorology of cold regions

Key questions:• What will be the magnitudes, patterns and rates of change in terrestrial

cryosphere regimes on seasonal to century time scales? What will be the associated changes in the water cycle?

• What is the role of terrestrial cryospheric processes in the spatial and temporal variability of the water, energy and carbon cycle of cold climate regions, and how can they be parameterized in models?

• What are the interactions and feedbacks between the terrestrial cryosphere and atmosphere/ocean systems and current climates, its variability and future change?

Outputs: (solid precip, snow, lake- and river-ice, glaciers, permafrost, frozen ground)• Spatial-temporal variability• Changes in the cryosphere and water cycle• Observations and data• Modelling

Borehole Depth

Permafrost ZonesContinuousWidespread DiscontinuousSporadic Discontinuous

Surface < 10 mShallow 10-25 mIntermediate 25-125 mDeep Geothermal > 125 m

Boreholes Eligible for GTN-P

Theme 1 : Terrestrial Cryosphere and hydrometeorology of cold regions

• Major initiatives relevant to NEESPI

• Changes of Cryosphere/Atmosphere/Biosphere system and Interaction in North-eastern Eurasia (CABIN ?)

Tetsuo Ohata, Takeshi Ohta, Atsuko Sugimoto, Jun Asanuma & others

• International High Asia Cryospheric Years (IHACY’s) Qin Dahe, Tetsuo Ohata, Asia CliC

• ICARP II working group 7 : Terrestrial Cryosphere & HydrologyTerry Prowse, Barry Goodison, Vladimir Ryabinin

• CryOS, a global cryosphere observation system (IGOS-cryo)• Sustained Arctic Observing Networks (SAON)

Study on the cold region hydro-climatology in Northeastern Eurasia

(CABIN<tentative>)

Tetsuo Ohata, IORGC/JAMSTEC, JapanTakeshi Ohta, Nagoya University, Japan

Atsuko Sugimoto, Hokkaido University, JapanJun Asanuma, Tsukuba University, Japan

and other collaborators

Changes of Cryosphere/Atmosphere/Biosphere system and Interaction in North-eastern Eurasia

Background and objectivesBackground(1) Although Northeastern Eurasia (NEE), coldest part of Eurasian continent, is a hot

spot in global change, its hydro-climatological changes are not well identified due to complex land surface、interaction systems and information shortage.

(2) Possible changes in this region, and its role in global change in the future, is not yet clear due to lack of understanding of the processes, and essential data-sets.

Objectives• Investigate and consolidate the climate and terrestrial change in this region

through detail and integrated studies especially on cryosphere, biosphere and atmosphere, through understanding the dominant and key processesresponsible for the change, .

• Knowledge on the dominant cryosphere/ biosphere/ atmosphere processes which is strongly related to its formation will be increased, and by them clarify the variability and future changes, through development and application of sophisticated models and various high-resolution data-sets.

Atmosphere

Snow ice Vegetation

Larger scale atmosphere

●This study is discussed in tight relation with international project as WCRP/CliC CPA1.●Will be build up to an international level framework for implementation.

Water/energy/material cycle

Sub-surface

Warming!

Schematic diagram of the study

Changes

Feedback system

Processes

Ten questions and actions(1) How is so-called “global warming” actually occurring in the terrestrial/

atmosphere system in NEE (Northeastern Eurasia) ?(2) Derive more accurate estimation of water/energy flow in this region for long

time scale. (i.e. precipitation, evaporation, runoff, SWE, ice in ground)

(3) How will water availability change, especially in southern periphery regions of NEE permafrost?

(4) How does snow cover and soil moisture anomaly (seasonal and year-to-year) affect the NH circulation, Siberian High and cold surges in East Asia?

(5) How is the vegetation change affecting the hydro-climatological conditions?(6) What is the past and present condition of regional sub-surface thermal and

ice condition?(7) What is the influence of shrinking snow/ice, increase in active layer to

greenhouse gases in NEE.(8) Establish better observation network, super-station and distributed network

of terrestrial/atmosphere system for future monitoring.(9) Obtain better view of the future changes by developing improved land

scheme for GCM and RCM and vegetation/frozen ground model.(10) Social activity influence to the hydro-climatological system and opposite.

0

20

40

605/ 16 5/ 30 6/ 13 6/ 27 7/ 11 7/ 25 8/ 8 8/ 22

P m

m

0

5

10

15

20

25

Date (2006)

Q x

10^

3 m

^3 &

WT

℃

Seasonal variation of Precipitation(black), stream water(red) and runoff amount from forest at Shijir Valley in 2006.

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep0

2

4mm day- 1

evapotr anspir ation

Example of Cryosphere/Biosphere Interaction: Threat of large hydrological Change southern periphery of NEE Permafrost Zone (Shjir Valley, Mongolia)

１５７

206mm

236

83

Summer water budget

(1)In these area, forest predominates at North-facing slope with permafrost, and south-facing slopes are grass surface, without permafrost. Coexistence of permafrost and forest are very clear.

(2) Measurement made independently, show that runoff (83mm) occurs only from north facing forest slopes.

(3) Further warming will destruct permafrost and eventually forest, and runoff may disappear.

No runoff from grass slopes, only forest slopes

←Measured Stem flow(green), forest ET(blue) and grassland ET(Pink)

Detail in-situ research area.

Whole study region

The area of interest

Existing complex stations

Example of new station

Distributed stations for specific meas.

Critical region

Frozen ground

Snow cover

Northern Forest

Main target area is the permafrost regions, roughly corresponds to boreal forest and snow cover region.

International High Asia Cryospheric Years (IHACYs)

a program during IPY and beyond

Chinese National CliC committee

RationalHigh Asia, the largest cryospheric parts outside of the

polar regions

Vulnerable to global warming, fast decay and facing

the fate of vanishing

Very important in socioeconomic aspects, as the major

water resources of arid regions of central Asia.

Very important to regional/global scale hydrometeorology

Countries: China, Russian, India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, etc.

Large cryospheric area

Yellow River

Indus Rive

r

Ganges River

Brahmaputra

TarimRiver

Obi River

Yenisey River

Yangdz RiverLujiang River

Mekong

Yili RiverCryosphere in High Asia

2. On-going Programs or ProjectsThere are several ongoing programs and projects focused to or closely related to cryospheric research in China. They are:

(1) Environmental changes in Tibetan Plateau and its response to global change, as well as adaptation strategy studies (MoST);

(2) Observational studies for the glacio-hydrology in the typical areas in Himalayas responding to climate change;

(3) Present processes study on the cryospheric changes in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. (CAS);(4) Hydrological effects of the typical glacial and frozen ground changes under global warming (CAS);(5) The study on the response of glaciers in the south Tibetan Plateau to the climate change (CAS);(6) The effect of Indian monsoon and glacial changes to the resources and sustainable development of Li

Jiang and Yulong Mountain areas (NSFC);(7) The frozen/thaw processes of the soil in the Tibetan Plateau and its effect on the seasonal transition.(8) The active layer changes of permafrost on the Tibetan Plateau as well as the seasonal frozen ground

changes in the surrounding areas of the plateau during the past decade (CAS);(9) Glacial changes surrounding the Tarim Basin and their impact to water resources (NSFC)(10) Ice-core records, glacial changes and water resources assessment of the Mutztag Glacier, Pamir

Plateau (MoST)

There are more than 20 projects specifically for ice-core studies and they are not included into the above summary.

The total amount of funds for the above programs and projects are over 82 million RMB, equaling to US$ 12 million

80 90 100 110 120 130

20

30

40

50

The map of 612 weather stations for snow observation

By Liu Yujie

The outcomes of IHACYs could beEnhanced observations, including an uniformed usage of RS data, satellite design ( e.g., snapshots of cryospheric

components)Data exchange, data sets of observations and (re-) analyses Improved knowledge of related processes and ability to model, Higher predictability of changes in cryosphere and climateAssessment on cryospheric constrains for socio-economic activities (Information for water management/adaptation

between mountain /plateau areas and the arid lowlands.

More informative indicators of climate change

CliC-CNC

Working Group 7: Terrestrial

Cryosphere & Hydrology

Working Group 9: Modeling and

Predicting Arctic Weather and Climate

Barry GoodisonChair, CliC SSG

Terry Prowse ch7Klaus Dethloff ch9Vladimir Ryabinin,

Rapporteur

KEY SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS FOR TERRESTRIAL KEY SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS FOR TERRESTRIAL CRYOSPHERE/HYDROSPHERE: CRYOSPHERE/HYDROSPHERE:

What are the current interWhat are the current inter--annual and future climateannual and future climate--change induced variations in arctic landchange induced variations in arctic land--surface surface hydrologic processes that control significant changes to hydrologic processes that control significant changes to the the global and regional feedbacks to the climate systemglobal and regional feedbacks to the climate system? ?

What are the current and predicted major changes in the What are the current and predicted major changes in the hydrologic system that will significantly affect hydrologic system that will significantly affect terrestrial terrestrial and freshwater aquatic system production and and freshwater aquatic system production and biodiversity?biodiversity?

What are the changes in the hydrologic system that will What are the changes in the hydrologic system that will have significant have significant impacts on humansimpacts on humans??

ProcedureResearch focus on watersheds and

glacierized regions spanning a range of spatial scales using a 3-pronged approach:

1. process studies in existing well-studied basins• supersites and nested supersites

2. new programs in understudied or under-represented regions

• roving sites

3. process/modelling extrapolation to pan-arctic

Multi-National coordination crucial

Data Access , integration and ArchivingWork with Global Modeling groupsIntegrate/Contribute NEESPI results with other (circum-Arctic) groups

data, science, education……Contribute to Observing Networks (AON, CryOS)