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ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 1
ICLEI 2017 – 2017-05-04
Climate adaptation – Cloudburst Plan Copenhagen
Arne Bernt Hasling [email protected]
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 2
Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process Copenhagen 2008-2017
Climate Change Plan 2009
Climate Change Adaptation Plan
2011
Master Plan, Implementation Plan, Tendering, On-going
Cloudburst Plan 2012
Lighthouse Projects
Easy and no regret projects
Easy and no regret projects
Area based implementation
20 years
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 3
Tools – Methods
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
• Flood simulation
• Likelihood of flooding
• Damage costs
• Economic risk
• Development in economic risk
• Measures to reduce economic risk
• Most feasible solution
• Most feasible level of safety
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 4
Flood simulation - Storm water
- Storm surge
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 6
Full dynamic analysis of rain and storm surge
7 ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
Maximum water depth on land during storm surge
Storm surge: 2,55 m
Full dynamic analysis of rain and storm surge
HØJVANDE OG KLIMA, KØBENHAVN
8 ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
Full dynamic analysis of rain and storm surge Storm surge 1,69 meter, December 2013
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected]
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 9
Development in economic risk - Storm water
- Storm surge
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 10
Economic risk - Storm water
- Storm surge
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
Likelihood Damage Cost Risk
X =
Accumulated economical risk 2010-2110
11 ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
Rain Sea
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected]
12 ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
Year ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected]
Development in economic risk caused by floods from rain or sea
Rain
Sea
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 13
Measures to reduce economic risk - Storm water
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 14
The basic assumptions: Sewers / Cloudburst Investment period and re-investments 100 years period for comparison Macroeconomics for the society
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 15
2 Climate Change Adaptation Scenarios, Cloudburst
Cover the whole city with same level of protection
Surface solutions only Surface solutions and tunnels
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 16
Most feasible solution - Storm water
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 17
Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives
› Sewers only: (upgrading/unload to meet the 2110 situation)
Sewer initiative. Protection method NPV
Damage Reduction
Bil.Kr.
Construction and O&M.
Bil.Kr.
Net Profit
Bil.Kr.
Upgrading sewers 10-year (2110)
10.1 13.8 -3.7
Non-return valves 5.8 1.5 4.3
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 18
Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives
› Cloudburst only: (assuming that the sewers are upgraded or unloaded)
Design Storm, Protection Level NPV
Damage Reduction
Billion Kr.
Construction and O&M.
Open Canals
Billion Kr.
Net Profit Open
Canals
Billion Kr.
Construction and O&M Pipes and
Canals
Billion Kr.
Net Profit
Pipes and Canals
Billion Kr.
20-year (2010) - - - - -
100-year (2010) 20-year (2110)
1.2 4.2 -2.9 3.2 -2.0
100-year (2110) 2.1 6.4 -4.3 4.7 -2.5
400-year (2110) (2/7-2011)
2.3 8.2 -5.9 5.5 -3.2
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 19
Macroeconomics, Adaptation Initiatives
› Combination of sewers and cloudburst initiatives: Cph. + Frb. Cloudburst initiatives are also used to relieve the rainwater pressure on the sewers during more comment events. Non-return valves in all connection pipes.
Design Storm, Protection Level NPV
Damage Reduction Combined Initiative
Billion Kr.
Construction and O&M. Combined Initiative
Billion Kr.
Net Profit
Combined Initiative
Billion Kr.
20-year (2010) - - -
100-year (2010) 20-year (2110)
8.8 8.0 0.8
100-year (2110) 10.8 8.8 2.0
400-year (2110) (2/7-2011)
11.0 10.2 0.8
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 20
Most Feasible Climate Change Adaptation Scenario
› Local collection and storage system on surface
› Main transportation system on or below ground
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 21
Most Feasible Climate Change Adaptation Scenario
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 22
Most feasible level of safety - Storm water
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 23
Most Feasible Climate Change Adaptation Scenario
20 50 100 200 400
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000M
io k
r.
Gentagelsesperiode for tiltag (år)
Tiltagsomkostning Nettogevinst Skadesomkostninger efter tiltag
Return period, years
Cost of measures Net profit Damages after measures
Costs
Profit
Damages
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 24
Adaptation Initiatives › Where to start?
Nr. Catchm ent Area Econom ic
Risk
Easy to
Im plem ent
Synergy
effects
Tota l
score
I2 Indre by S 9,00 5 3,6 17,6
I1 Indre by N 7,02 4 3,6 14,6
N Østerbro 3,96 3 6,0 13,0
SH Sluseholmen 6,03 4 2,4 12,4
M1 Vesterbro 4,86 2 2,4 9,3
M4 Ladegårdsåen 2,25 2 4,8 9,1
CH Christianshavn 2,97 4 1,2 8,2
SV Svanemøllen 2,25 2 3,6 7,9
R Valby 1,80 2 3,6 7,4
M2 Frederiksberg 3,15 3 1,2 7,4
U2 Utterslev 0,63 3 3,6 7,2
Ø Lersøgrøften 2,43 1 3,6 7,0
A2 Kastrup Fort 1,62 3 2,4 7,0
BV Vanløse 0,18 3 3,6 6,8
U1 Utterslev mose 0,36 4 2,4 6,8
A1 Amager Stand 1,08 3 2,4 6,5
KE Kongens Enghave 1,08 3 2,4 6,5
V Grøndalsåen 0,81 2 3,6 6,4
NH Nordhavn 0,72 4 1,2 5,9
IB Islands Brygge 0,45 3 2,4 5,9
M3 København NV 1,08 3 1,2 5,3
U4 Emdrup 0,45 1 3,6 5,1
KF Kalvebod Fælled 0,00 2 2,4 4,4
U3 Husum 0,45 2 1,2 3,7
ICLEI 2017-BONN-2017.05.04
ARNE BERNT HASLING, [email protected] 25
Adaptation Initiatives › Where to start?
