Clima 2010

Environment &

HVAC

Andrew

EastwellCEO BSRIA

www.bsria.co.uk

2

3

Security of supply

4

5

6

19 reactors providing 19%

of electricity supply

All due to close by 2023

7

8

19 reactors providing 19% of

electricity supply

All due to close by 2023

From nuclear sceptic to

nuclear positive in just 5

years

New planning regulations to

speed development

10 new sites identified

First new station 2017

40% capacity by 2050 being

openly discussed

9

Source:http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm

http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm

10

Source:http://www.bmreports.com/bsp/bsp_home.htm

11

Electricity Grid supply

structures

Mainly from supply in North

Higher disposable incomes

in South

Greater development in

South

Grid Stress likely

12

Source: National Gas Grid 10 year statement 2009

Supply and demand for gas

13

14

The solution for

UK?

15

16

Energy supply & security

Conclusions

UK will have an electrical capacity problem for at

least the next decade

– Either due to generation limitation

– Or due to power distribution issues

New availability of LNG import facilities means

– GAS will remain king for the time being

New appliances mainly to displace resistance heating

New emphasis on demand management

17

The Carbon Issue

18

19

Applies to government

buildings to which

public have access

Greater than 1000 m2

Annual

Recommendation

report every 7 years

45,000 DECs to date

Current consultation to

extend scope to all

public buildings

20

The scale of change required is huge with the average

building in 2050 needing to be 4 DEC ratings better than

today

Source: DCLG, Carbon Trust analysis

21

22

23

24

25

26

27Source: BSRIA Original research data

UK Building Controls market

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0

2008

2007

2006

2005

2008

2007

2006

2005

2008

2007

2006

2005

2008

2007

2006

2005

Com

mer

cial

Fie

ld

Con

trol

ler

Com

mer

cial

Aut

omat

ion

Con

trol

ler

Dom

estic

Fie

ld

Con

trol

ler

Dom

estic

Aut

omat

ion

Con

trol

ler

£Million

Sales by UK Manufacturers Imported Sales Exports

28

UK Renewables market

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

2008

2007

2006

2005

2008

2007

2006

2005

2008

2007

2006

2005

2008

2007

2006

2005

2008

2007

2006

2005B

iom

ass

Mic

ro C

HP

Hea

t

Rec

over

y

Sol

ar

The

rmal

Hea

t

Pum

ps

£Million

Sales by UK Manufacturers Imported Sales Exports

Source: BSRIA Original research data

29

UK PV market

0.0 200.0 400.0 600.0 800.0 1,000.0 1,200.0

2008

2007

2006

2005

Sola

r P

V

£Million

Sales by UK Manufacturers Imported Sales Exports

Source: BSRIA Original research data

30

Carbon Targets:

Conclusions

Retrofit is the key market

Every carbon reduction technology is required

Decarbonised grid = shift from gas to electricity (2020+)

High renewables % = increased demand management

Passive design + increased control a growing trend

Policy intervention will move uneconomic technologies to

be a more attractive proposition

All assumptions assume a non–catastrophe scenario!