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Corporate Financial Management 1
Jan VlachýJan Vlachý <[email protected]>Brigham, E.F., Ehrhardt, M.C. Financial Management: Theory and Practice, 13th Edition
Corporate Financial Management 1 2
Basic ConceptsCorporate Financial Management
Is the Art/Science of Creating and Maintaining the Value of a Company.
Gives a Firm its Common Language.It Consists of
Investment DecisionsFinancing DecisionsManagerial Decisions
Chapters 1-3
Corporate Financial Management 1 3
Investment Vehicle Model
The Set of Contracts Model recognises imperfections and includes the assumption of both explicit and implicit contracts, incl. Corporate Organization.
The World
FinancialMarkets
The Firm InvestorsFinancialIntermed.
Money × Real Assets Money × Financial Assets
Corporate Financial Management
InvestmentsFinancial Markets
F I N A N C E
Invest-ments
Financ-ing
Corporate Financial Management 1 4
Competitive Economic EnvironmentTwo-Sided Transactions (Buyer×Seller Equil.)Risk-Return TradeoffSignalling/ Behavioral Principle
<= Market Efficiency (Information, Transactions)Value (How can some people become rich?)
New Ideas, ExpertiseOptionsTime Value of Money
The Financial Environment
Financial transactions create an equilibrium; Real investments create value
Corporate Financial Management 1 5
Accounting, Cash Flows & TaxesPurposes of an Accounting System
Reporting the Firm’s Financial Activities to Stakeholders
Providing Information to Firm’s Decision Makers
Financial Management strives to use and interpret the informationAccounting - historical viewFinance - current and future
Corporate Financial Management 1 6
Limitations of AccountingWhy don’t shares trade at Book Val.? Market×Book Value of Assets/Liabs
Historical Accounting (depreciation)Inflation (value benchmarks have changed)Liquidity (can it readily be sold?)Time Value of Money (relates to Maturity
and Terms)
Note: Finance prefers to deal with cash flows in a time perspective.
Corporate Financial Management 1 7
TaxesIncome Tax
Make analyses on after-tax basisFor financial decisions, use marginal
tax rate (relavant if tax is progressive or unsymmetrical on negative base)
Capital Gains TaxDividend/Interest Income TreatmentSystem Biases (Loss Carry-forwards,
Exemptions, Deductions)
Corporate Financial Management 1 8
Time Value of Money Chapter 4
Future goods are not valued so highly as the same goods available at an immediate moment of time, nor do they allow their owners to achieve the same utility. For this reason, it must be considered that they have a more reduced value in accordance with justice. (Giles Lessines, 1285)
... i.e. People generally prefer having any amount of
money at their disposal earlier rather than later.... i.e. Investors require positive returns as
compensation for the inconvenience.
Corporate Financial Management 1 9
On Present and Future ValuesYou deposit $1,000 today with a bank
that pays 5% interest per year.FV1= PV+r×PV= PV(1+r)=
$1,000×1,05= $1,050 (Simple Interest)
FV2= FV1(1+r)= PV(1+r)×(1+r)= PV(1+r)2= $1,102.50 (Compound Interest)
FVt= PV(1+r)t PV= FVt / (1+r)t
Discounted Cash Flow Framework
Corporate Financial Management 1 10
Return of an Investment (Rate of Return, Yield):
Return, Net Present Value
( )Return
CashFlow EndValue BegValue
BegValue
C0
C1 C2 C3 C4 t
NPV = Present Value of expected cash flows (+positive-negative)
Corporate Financial Management 1 11
Practical IssuesDistinguish:
Realized ReturnExpected Return (<= Risk)Required Return (<= Unperfect Mkts)
Financial securities are usually priced “fairly” (Market Equilibrium).
Investment projects (and other entrepreneurial decisions) should bring value, i.e. have positive NPV.
Corporate Financial Management 1 12
Valuing Single Cash Flows (Ex.)What is the Future Value of $2,000
invested at 3% per year for five years?What is the Present Value of CZK 10m
to be received two years from now if the required return is 4% per year?
What is the Expected Return for an investment costing €10,000 today and offering €12,000 in three years?
Corporate Financial Management 1 13
Valuing Multiple Cash FlowsYou can invest $10,000. As a result, you
expect to get $2,000, $8,000, and $5,000 over the next three years, respectively. If the required return is 10%, what is the NPV of your investment?
t Ct PV(Ct)0 $ -10,000 -10,000.001 $ 2,000 1,818.182 $ 8,000 6,611.573 $ 5,000 3,756.57
Total PV: $ 2,186.33What is the return if you know the NPV?
Corporate Financial Management 1 14
AnnuitiesTypes of Annuity
Ordinary Annuity (Payments at end of period)
Annuity Due (Payments at beginning of period)
Deferred Annuity (First repayment more than one period after drawing)
1
1 11
1 1
nn
n t nt
rPVA PMT PMT
r r r
FVAn = PVAn(1+r)n; PVAn[due] = PVAn(1+r);PVAn[defd] = PVAn/(1+r)d
Corporate Financial Management 1 15
Amortization SchedulesA $1,000 loan yielding 8% requires equal
payments at the end of the next three yrs. How much principal will be rpd. in Year 2?
PMT = $1,000×[.08(1.08)3/(1.083-1)] = $388.03t 1 2 3Vt-1 $1,000.00 $691.97 $359.30It 80.00 55.36 28.74Vt-1 + It 1,080.00 747.33 388.04PMTt -388.03 -388.03 -388.03Vt 691.97 359.30 0.01
P2 = V1 - V2 = |PMT2| - I2 = $332.67
Corporate Financial Management 1 16
Perpetuities
PV = $100 / 7% = $1,428.57Growth Perpetuities:
PMTt = PMT0(1+g)t
PVgrowth = PMT1/(r-g) (... r > g)
1 1lim lim
1
lim1
n
perp n nn n
nn
rPV PVA PMT
r r
PMT PMT PMT
r rr r
Problem 4-27
Corporate Financial Management 1 17
Compounding Frequency (1)Compare annual return on deposit
with 6% interest paid annually and monthly.
FVA = PV×(1 + 6%) = PV×1.06
rA = (FVA-PV) / PV = .06×PV/PV = 6%
FVM = PV×(1 + 6%/12)12 = PV×1.00512 = PV×1.0617
rM = (FVM-PV) / PV = 6.17%
Corporate Financial Management 1 18
Compounding Frequency (2)Compare the cost of a 6% (nominal
rate) loan with monthly and quarterly interest.
Nominal Rate×Effective Annual RateNR = m×rm
EAR = (1 + rm)m - 1
EAR M = 1.00512 - 1 = 6.17%
EAR Q = 1.0154 - 1 = 6.14%
Corporate Financial Management 1 19
Bond and Stock ValuationMain sources of capital for Company
Bond: Debt CapitalStock: Equity Capital
Claim on fut. cash flows for InvestorBond: Contractual interest and princi-
pal payments (or proceeds of sale)Stock: Dividends (theoretically forever)
or proceeds of sale
Chapters 5,7
Corporate Financial Management 1 20
Valuation ProcedureBased on discounted cash flow
concept:Estimate expected future cash flowsDetermine required return (depending
on the riskiness of the expected cash flows)
Compute the present valueOther possibilities: Market price of
same or comparable asset
Corporate Financial Management 1 21
Features of Bonds/ Stocks Par (Face, Princ.) Value Coupon (Interest) Rate Coupon Payment
Frequency Maturity: Original (Issue),
Remaining (Residual) Terms of Repayment:
Bullet, Sinking Fund, Zero-Coupon (Pure Discount)
Call Provision (Option); other Rights; Junior/Senior
??? Dividends Dividend Payment
Frequency N/A
N/A
Common/Preferred Rights (Warrants,
Convertibles)... See Chapt. 19, Hybrid Financing
Corporate Financial Management 1 22
Bond Valuation Problem 5-1
t 1234
...89
101112
Ct
$ 80$ 80$ 80$ 80
...$ 80$ 80$ 80$ 80$1,080r= 9%
PV
$ 73.39$ 67.33$ 61.77$ 56.67
...$ 40.15$ 36.83$ 33.79$ 31.00$ 383.98$ 928.39
0 1
nt
tt
CV
r
For bond w/semi-annual coupons n=24, Ct=$40.To put required return on same basis as annual bond, one should assume EAR = 9% = (1+rS)2 - 1, i.e. rS = \/1.09 - 1 = 4.4%.
Corporate Financial Management 1 23
Yield to Maturity/ Yield to Call (1)Assume Johnson Co. has a bond with a
face value of $1,000 that matures in 12 years, has a coupon rate of 8%, and is currently selling for $928.39. What is the required return to buy the bond (YTM = 9.00%)?
Assume it can be called in 10 years at a call price of $1,100. What would be the required return to buy the bond if we knew the option would be excercised (YTC = 9.79%)?
Corporate Financial Management 1 24
Yield to Maturity/ Yield to Call (2)Yield to Maturity= Promised ReturnYield to Call= Return if CalledN=12; PV=-928.39; PMT=80; FV=1,000 => I
(YTM) = 9.00%N=10; FV=1,100 => I (YTC) = 9.79%Expected Return= YTM minus Risk
Credit (Default) Risk <= Rating
Interest Rate Risk/ Reinvestment RiskFX Risk, Liquidity Risk...
Corporate Financial Management 1 25
Market Interest Rates/Yield Curve
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
4
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
t
r
Corporate Financial Management 1 26
Stock Valuation Value a share which is expected to pay dividends
of $2.72 and $3.10, respectively, over the next two years, and sold thereafter for $48, if the required return is 10%?
V=$2.72/(1.1)+$3.10/(1.1)2+$48/(1.1)2= $44.70 But... How did I estimate the market price in 2
years? Let us assume constant dividends of $4.80 after
Year 2. Using perpetuity valuation: V2=$4.80/10%= $48
Problem
Corporate Financial Management 1 27
Constant Growth ModelDt = D0(1+g)t
V = D1/(r-g) (... r > g)
e.g. V = $36(1.05)/(13%-5%) = $31.5e.g. r = $1.30/$21.25 + 6% = 12.12%CG formula can also be used for
determining a horizon (terminal) value or for valuing declining growth stock.
For erratic or supernormal growth stock, split cash flows into two parts.
Corporate Financial Management 1 28
Risk and ReturnRisk refers to the chance that some
unexpected event would occur.In business, that would mean the decrease
of value of the firm, in financial markets any change in the value of financial instruments etc.
In other words, actual returns will differ from expected returns.
The expected return should therefore compensate an investor for the perceived risk.
Chapters 6, 7
Corporate Financial Management 1 29
Investments with Risk
1.00
2.0-10.0 30.0 50.0 5.0 0.10Boom
5.0 -2.0 20.0 25.0 5.0 0.20Above avg.
6.0 0.0 10.0 15.0 5.0 0.40Average
7.0 7.0 -5.0 -5.0 5.0 0.20Below avg.
10.0% 20.0%-15.0%-25.0% 5.0% 0.10Recession
BondGoldEq 2Eq 1T-BillProb.Economy
Problem
Corporate Financial Management 1 30
Expected ReturnE(r) = Σwiri
E(rEQ1) = .10(-25%) + .20(-5%) + .40(15%) + .20(25%) + .10(50%) = 12.5%
Eq 1 Eq 2 Bond T-bill GoldE(r) 12.5% 8.5% 6% 5% 2%
Eq 1 has the highest expected return.Is it the best investment?
Corporate Financial Management 1 31
Stand-Alone Riskσ = \/Σ(wi(ri-E(r))2
σEQ1 = \/[.10(-25-12.5)2 + .20(-5-12.5)2 + .40(15-12.5)2 + .20(25-12.5)2 + .10(50-12.5)2] = 19.4%
T-bill Bond Gold Eq 2 Eq 1σ 0% 1.9% 7.5% 12.9% 19.4%E(r) 5% 6% 2% 8.5% 12.5%
Volatility
Corporate Financial Management 1 32
Probability DistributionsProb.
Actual Return (%)
T-bill
Eq 2
HT
0 5 8.5 12.5
Eq 1
Corporate Financial Management 1 33
Portfolio Risk (1)Assume portfolio with 50% invested in
Eq 1, and 50% in Gold.
20.0 -10.0 50.0 0.10Boom 11.5 -2.0 25.0 0.20Above avg. 7.5 0.0 15.0 0.40Average 1.0 7.0 -5.0 0.20Below avg. -2.5% 20.0%-25.0% 0.10Recession
Port.GoldEq 1Prob.Economy
E(rP) = 7.25%
σP = 6.1%
Corporate Financial Management 1 34
Portfolio Risk (2)p (=6.1%) is much lower than:
either Eq 1 (19.4%) or Gold (7.5%).average of Eq 1 and Gold (13.5%).
The portfolio offers a decent return (average of Eq 1 and Gold returns) with low risk.
The key is low (actually negative) correlation between Eq 1 and Gold returns, facilitating diversification.
Corporate Financial Management 1 35
Managing Portfolio RiskSystematic and Specific Risk [Law of
Large Numbers] (Insurance, Consumer Credit)
Equilibrium Theories, e.g. Capital Asset Pricing Model [Sharpe, Lintner] (Equity Markets, Capital Investments)
Portfolio Theory [Markowitz] (Market Portfolios), based on function σP=ƒ(w1,w2,w3,..,σ1,σ2,σ3,..,ρ12, ρ13, ρ23,..)
Corporate Financial Management 1 36
Effect of Diversification
N10 20 30 40
Specific (Diversifiable) Risk
Systematic Risk
20
0
Total Risk
(%)
35
Corporate Financial Management 1 37
Capital Asset Pricing ModelIn an efficient market, the required return
will equal the expected return.efficient market => equilibrium pricetransactional, informational efficiencyefficient market arbitrage
An asset’s required return is the sum of the riskless return and an asset-specific risk premium.
Beta (β) is a measure of the asset’s market (systematic, undiversifiable) risk.
SML: ri = rF + β(rM - rF)
Corporate Financial Management 1 38
Beta as a Sensitivity Measureri = rF + β (rM - rF)
rM
riβ = 1
45°
0 < β < 1
β = 0rF
Corporate Financial Management 1 39
CAPM UtilizationTwo shares (in the same market) with
known rF, βA, βB, rA, looking for rB.rA = rF + βA (rM - rF)rB = rF + βB (rM - rF)14% = 6% + 1.4(rM-6%) => rM = 11.7% rB = 6% + 1.1(11.7%-6%) = 12.3%
Note: The beta of a portfolio equals the weighted average of its component betas (VP P = VA A + VB B + ...)
Problem
Corporate Financial Management 1 40
OptionsOption = Right (Financial and Embedded
Options, i.e. Contracts) or Opportunity (Real Options)
Financial options are traded contracts, derivatives of Underlying Assets (Equities, FX, Bonds, Commodities, Indices...)
Financial Derivatives include Options, Warrants, Forwards, Futures, Swaps, Repos...
Financial Derivatives are used primarily for Risk Management (Hedging, Speculation) ... See Chapt. 23
Chapter 8
Corporate Financial Management 1 41
ApplicationsFinancial Options
American vs. European OptionsCall vs. Put OptionsExotic Options (various terms of exercise,
caps, floors; exchange options, compound options,...)
Embedded Options... Constitute ContractsReal Options... In Business Decisions ...
See Chapts. 11,25
Corporate Financial Management 1 42
The Value of Options Intrinsic Value (would the option be executed if
nothing changed till excercise date?) = ƒ(p; r; t) ...usually easy to assess; can be used for designing option strategies
Time Value = ƒ(t; ) ...calculated by means of models (using market equilibrium assumption and replication)
Total Value (Call Option)
p
V
Time Value
Intrinsic Value (Call Option)
p
V
S
in-the-moneyout-of-the-money
at-the-money
Corporate Financial Management 1 43
Using the Replication PrincipleCall Option: S = $40, p = $32, d = $16 or u = $64 at
time t; rt = 2%.
d: Option out of the money, i.e. Vd = 0
u: Uption in the money, i.e. Vu = 64 - 40 = $24 Income structure can be replicated with N forward
transactions. These must have zero value if underlying asset costs $16, and must therefored be issued with forward price F = $16. Their present value is VF = p - F/(1+rt) = $16.31.
Value of N forward transactions at settlement if underlying asset costs u is Vu = N(u - F). To replicate u = 64 Vu = 24, N = 24/(64-16) = 0.5.
The option value is thus VC = 0.5×16.31 = $8,16.
Corporate Financial Management 1 44
Numerical Model (Binomial, CRR) Call Option S = 1 100; p = 1 000; r = 5%; 4 periods
1 215,51115,51
1 157,6371,29
1 102,50 1 102,5043,99 2,50
1 050,00 1 050,0027,14 1,52
1 000,00 1 000,00 1 000,0016,74 0,93 0,00
952,38 952,380,56 0,00
907,03 907,030,00 0,00
863,840,00
822,700,00
F = 1 100; N = 1VF = 1157,63 - 1100e-0,25×5% = 71,29VC = N VF = 71,29
F = 1 000N = (u - S)/(u - d) = 2,50/102,5 = 0,0244VF = 1050 - 1000e-0,25×5% = 62,42VC = N VF = 1,52
N = 0 => VC = 0
Corporate Financial Management 1 45
Analytical Model (Black-Scholes)VC = p N(d1) - S e-rt N(d2)
d1 = [ln(p/S) + (2/2) t] / ( t)
d2 = d1 - tp= $500; S= $510; r= 3%; t= 3months (=0,25); =20%
d1 = [ln(500/510)+(0,04/2)×0,25]/(0,2×0,5) = -0,0730
d2 = -0,0730 - 0,2×0,5 = -0,1730
N(d1) = N(-0,0730) = 0,4709; N(d2) = N(-0,1730) = 0,4313 (cummulative distribution function for a standardised normal random variable)
VC = 500×0,4709 - 510×e-20%×0,25×0,4313 = $17,12
VP = VC - p + Se-rt = 17,12-500+510×e-3%×0,25 = $23,31 (using put-call parity)
Corporate Financial Management 1 46
Cost of CapitalCost of Capital = Required Return for
Capital Budgeting Project2 possible approaches
Use CAPMFirm Value = Equity Value + Debt
Value.In a perfect market, a company cannot affect
its value by changing the way it is financed - it just influences the distribution of risks and returns between different classes of investors.
Chapter 9
Corporate Financial Management 1 47
Risk/Return of Real AssetsCAPM can be extended to include
real assets (i.e. capital budgeting projects)Pure Play Method (Finding single-
product companies in the same line of business as project being evaluated)
Accounting Beta Method (Regression of return of assets against average return on assets in the whole market)
Corporate Financial Management 1 48
Weighted Average Cost of CapitalWACC = (1-L)re + L(1-T)rd
L = D/(D+E) ... LeverageT ... Marginal Income tax Rate
Always based on opportunity, not historical costs and values!
After-tax cost must be used for all components!
Correct risk assumptions have to be made for individual projects!
Corporate Financial Management 1 49
WACCr = $3.6 / $70 = 5.14%c = $3.6 / ($70×(1-5%)) = 5.41%
WACC = 30%×6%×(1-40%)+ 5%×5.8%+ 65%×12% = 9.17%
Problems 9-4, 9-7
Corporate Financial Management 1 50
Component Cost of EquityWays to estimate required return:
DCF MethodCAPM Approach ( of equity, not project!)Bond Yield + Risk Premium Method
Equity for new projects may come from retained earnings or new issue.
New issues incur flotation costs. In this case, the component cost of capital is higher than required return.
Corporate Financial Management 1 51
Application of DCF MethodQST stock is trading at $30 a share. QST
will pay a $3 dividend at the end of the year and expects 5% annual growth. Costs of flotation amount to 10%. What is the required return and cost for new equity?
r = D1/V + g = $3/$30 + 5% = 15%
Vnet = V(1-F) = $30(1-10%) = $30×90% = $27
re = D1/[V(1-F)] + g = $3/[$30(1-10%)] + 5% = 16.1%
Corporate Financial Management 1 52
Risk, Leverage, Beta and WACCOperating Leverage: influences rA, i.e. both rE
and rD <=> an increase in operating risk increases A and WACC.
Financial Leverage: in efficient markets, an increase should increase d, but leave A and WACC unchanged.
(1-TL)A = L(1-T)D + (1-L)E (= portfolio)
Assuming low risk of debt, it is possible to approximate A = E (1-L)/(1-TL)
... on Leverage more in Chapt. 15
Corporate Financial Management 1 53
Distinguish RisksOperating (Business) Risk (depends on
structure of firm’s assets, not structure of financing) <= Operating Leverage
Financial Risk (based on firm’s capital structure) <= Fin. Leverage
Units Sold
Profit
Co. Return
Shldr. Return L = 0
L = 50%
Corporate Financial Management 1 54
Basics of Capital BudgetingGenerate ideasEstimate the expected future cash flows
from the project.Assess the risk and determine a required
return (cost of capital, hurdle rate, discount rate).
Compute present value of cash flows; if project has a positive NPV, it creates value => should be accepted.
Alt.: Find market price or compare with similar asset
Chapter 10
Corporate Financial Management 1 55
Types of ProjectsCapital budgeting projects include:
New products and new businessesMaintenance projectsCost saving/ revenue enhancementCapacity expansionProjects required by regulation/ policy
Independent/Exclusive ProjectsConventional/Nonnormal Cash Flows
Corporate Financial Management 1 56
Alternative Budgeting MeasuresNet Present ValueInternal Rate of Return (=Expected Rtrn)
Profitability IndexModified IRR (includes cost of capital)Payback ... ignores time value of
money and cash flows beyond paybackDiscounted Payback
Corporate Financial Management 1 57
Investment Criteria
PB = 2 + (10,000/30,000) = 2.3 yearsDPB = 2 + (17,934/22,539) = 2.8 yearsNPV = ΣDCF = $18.266PI = ΣDCF[1-4] / |CF0| = 1.26
IRR = 22.24%MIRR = (129,230/70,000)1/4 - 1 = 16.56%
Problem
Year 0 1 2 3 4CF -70,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 20,000DCF -70,000 27,273 24,793 22,539 13,660
Corporate Financial Management 1 58
IssuesIRR brings same results as NPV with
independent and conventional projects only
Unequal lives of exclusive projects, e.g. replacement projects ... use common horizon calculation or Equivalent Annual Annuities (EAA = NPV[r(1+r)n/(1+r)n-1])
It is realistic to assume some kind of capital budget constraint ... use artificially high discount rate or capital rationing (e.g. ranking by Profitability Index)
Corporate Financial Management 1 59
Estimating Cash FlowsCash flow income (includes e.g.
depreciation, ignores time value)Measure on incremental (marginal)
basisOnly future expenditures/revenues
are relevant (avoid sunk costs)Include taxes; not financing costs
(they are reflected in cost of capital)
Chapter 11
Corporate Financial Management 1 60
Types of Budgeting Cash FlowsNet Initial Investment Outlay
new assets purchase, old assets sale, increase in net working capital
Net Operating Cash FlowNonoperating Cash Flows
overhauls, changes in working capitalNet Salvage (Termination) ValueTax Adjustment (Capitalizing×Expensing)
Corporate Financial Management 1 61
Est. Cash Flows Problems 11-1,2,3
Corporate Financial Management 1 62
Budgeting Cash Flows Problem 11-9
NPV= - 7,160 + 2,000/1.15 + 2,384/1.152 + 1,968/1.13 + 1,744/1.154 + 1,712/1.155 + 3,232/1.156 = $921.36
Note: Different remaining lives, working capital investment
Corporate Financial Management 1 63
Analyzing RiskMarket Risk
Measured by (see CAPM) impacts discount rate
Stand-Alone RiskBreak-even AnalysisSensitivity AnalysisScenario AnalysisMonte Carlo Simulation
Corporate Financial Management 1 64
Simple ExampleProject costs $100,000, expected sales 1,000
units, price $80/unit, cash op. exp. $40/unit, 5-year life, fully amortized, terminal value $10,000. Cap. cost 12%, tax rate 25%. What is its NPV?
V = -I + [N×(P-U)×(1-T)+D×T][((1+r)n-1) /r(1+r)n] + [F×(1-T)]/(1+r)5 = -100,000 + [30,000+5,000]×3.60 + 7,500/1.76 = $ 30,423
Corporate Financial Management 1 65
Break-even Analysis (Sales)V = -I + [N×(P-U)×(1-T)+D×T]×3.60 + [F×(1-
T)]/(1+r)5
What N* would result in V = 0?
-I + [N*×(P-U)×(1-T)+D×T]×3.60 + [F×(1-T)]/(1+r)5 = 0
N* = [(100,000-7,500/1,76)/3.60-5,000]/30 = 720 pcs.
i.e. the project breaks even at 720 units sold.
Usually easier to use numerical iteration.
Corporate Financial Management 1 66
Sensitivity Analysis (Price)V = -I + [N×(P-U)×(1-T)+D×T]×3.60 +
[F×(1-T)]/(1+r)5
V/P = [N×(1-T)]×3.60 = 750×3.60 = $ 2,700
i.e. a price cut of $1 will result in a project
value decrease by $ 2,700.Almost always easier to use numerical
simulation.
Corporate Financial Management 1 67
Scenario Analysis (Sales, U.Cost)Scenario Worst
CaseMostLikely
BestCase
UnitSales
850 1,000 1,100
UnitCost
45 40 38
NPV 2,711 30,423 47,185
Corporate Financial Management 1 68
Real OptionsFlexibility to adjust plans based on newly
acquired information may increase NPV.Growth/development optionsContraction/abandonment optionsInvestment timing optionsExchange options
Valuation methods:Closed-form (analogy w/B-S)... rareDecision treesMonte Carlo
... further reading in Chapt. 25
Corporate Financial Management 1 69
Financial PlanningPro-Forma Financial Statements
Forecast the amount of external financing that will be required
Evaluate the impact that changes in the operating plan have on the value of the firm
Set appropriate targets for compensation plans
Chapter 12
Corporate Financial Management 1 70
Steps in Financial ForecastingForecast salesProject the assets needed to support
salesProject internally generated fundsProject outside funds neededDecide how to raise fundsSee effects of plan on ratios and
stock price
Corporate Financial Management 1 71
Additional Funds Needed Problem
$7,560 Tot. liab.&eq.$7,560 Total assets3,960Equity3,000Net FA1,000L-T debt$4,560 Total CA
$2,600 Total CL1,800Inventory800S.-Term Loan2,400Accounts rec.600Accruals
$1,200Accts. pay.$360Cash
Sales = $12,000; M = NI/Sales = 6%; P = D/NI = 25%.
Corporate Financial Management 1 72
Key AssumptionsOperating at full capacity last year.Each type of asset grows proportionally
with sales.Payables and accruals (i.e. current
liabilities) grow proportionally with sales.
Existing profit margin (6%) and payout (25%) will be maintained.
Sales are expected to increase by $3 million. (%S = 25%)
Corporate Financial Management 1 73
Graphical IllustrationAssets
Sales0
7,560
12,000
9,450
15,000
Assets =(A/S)×Sales= 0.63($3,000)= $1,890
Assets = 0.63 × Sales
A/S = $7,560/$12,000 = 0.63 = $9,450/$15,000(i.e. Capital Intensity Ratio remains unchanged)
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Calculating AFNAFN = Required Increase in Assets -
Spontaneous Increase in Liabilities - Increase in Retained Earnings
AFN= A×(ΔS/S0)- L*×(ΔS/S0)- M×S1(1-P) = $7,560×25% - $1,800×25% - 6%×$15,000×75% = $1,890-$450-$675 = $765,000
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Projected Balance Sheet
$9,450 Tot. liab.&eq.$9,450 Total assets4,635Equity3,750Net FA1,000L-T debt$5,700 Total CA
$3,815 Total CL2,250Inventory1,565S.-Term Loan3,000Accounts rec.
750Accruals$1,500Accts. pay.$450Cash
DR0=3,600/7,560=48%; DR1=4,815/9,450=51%CR0=4,560/2,600=1.75; CR1=5,700/3,815=1.49
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Corp. Valuation & Governance Corporate Valuation Model (×Dividend
Growth Model) Based on Free Cash Flow Estimation
(instead of dividends) Can be used when dividends are not paid
(e.g. startups, subunits of firm)1. Estimate the Value of Operations
(discount FCF = NOPAT – Required Net Operating Working Capital)
2. Add Value of Nonoperating Assets and Growth Options
Chapter 13
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Value Based ManagementValue-based Management involves the
systematic use of the corporate valuation model to evaluate a company‘s decisions.
Value drivers:Growth rate of salesOperating profitability (NOPAT/Sales)Capital requirements (Operating
Capital/Sales)WACC
Company creates value when EROIC (i.e. NOPAT/Capital) > WACC
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Corporate Governance Shareholder wealth may be adversely influenced
by management behavior (agency problem) Corporate governance is a set of laws, rules and
procedures influencing managers in a way that maximizes the firm‘s intrinsic value. Monitoring Litigation Threat of removal Compensation plans Hostile takeovers (avoid managerial
entrenchment)