8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

1/19

Clevelands Housing Market:

Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain

Thomas Bier

Maxine Goodman Levin College of Urban Affairs

Cleveland State University

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

2/19

Cleveland is Affected by Suburban Housing

Inner suburbs have many thousands oflow-priced properties.

Low-mod will continue to move out (growth insuburban poverty exceeds Cleveland).

If just 5% move out, Clevelands population

declines.

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

3/19

Suburbanites Are Heading Out

80% move farther out; half to adjacent county.

Most moves are to new or newer properties.

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

4/19

Cuyahogas Losses to Adjacent Counties

2004-2009

In Out Net

Households 33,000 48,000 -15,000

Persons 51,000 87,000 -36,000

Income $1.28 b $2.38 b -$1.1 b

36,000 equals a Westlake in five years

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

5/19

Cuyahoga County is losing middle- andupper-income residents. Many preferinner locations but lack of renewal pushes

them out.

Lack on inner renewal and Cuyahogas

land situation define the way forward.

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

6/19

Cuyahoga: Ohios First Built-out County

After 200 years of development, Cuyahogais virtually built-out. Few green fields areleft in outer suburbs on which to build taxbase.

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

7/19

As Cuyahogas supply ofgreenfield land has shrunk,

development has shifted to adjacent counties*

Cuyahogas Share of

7-County New Housing

(units)

1985 44%

2010 20%

*Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage, Summit

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Millionsof

Dollars

Year

Value of New Residential Construction1980-2010

Adjacent Counties

Cuyahoga

Adjacent Counties: Geauga, Lake, Lorain, Medina, Portage, and Summit

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

9/19

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Adjacent Counties

Cuyahoga County

Outer Suburbs

19 Inner Suburbs

Cleveland

Percent (Adj. for inflation)

Change in Value of Residential Real Estate

Average Annual, 1985-2010

Cuyahoga County

Adjacent Counties

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

10/19

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

Adjacent Counties

Cuyahoga County

Outer Suburbs

19 Inner Suburbs

Cleveland

Percent (Adj. for inflation)

Change in Value of Commercial Real Estate

Average Annual, 1985-2010

Adjacent Counties

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

11/19

-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

1

2

3

4

5

Percent (Adj. for inflation)

Change in Value of Industrial Real Estate

Average Annual, 1985-2010

Adjacent Counties

Cuyahoga County

Outer Suburbs

19 Inner Suburbs

Cleveland

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

12/19

Cuyahoga is on the road to shrinkingtax base, higher taxes, reduced bond

rating while neighboring counties

continue to grow. Cuyahogas decline undermines

economic prospects for the region just

as Clevelands decline did, but on alarger scale.

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

13/19

No Other Option

To prevent worsening decline, redevelopmentand renewal of the countys old core

Cleveland and inner suburbs mustbe a

dominant countywide priority.

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

14/19

Redevelopment and renewal havebeen slight. Why?

Projects need subsidy.

Home rule is taken to mean Its your

problem, you fit it fix obsolete real estate,outdated schools, worn-out recreationfacilities, dying trees, abandoned buildings,

leaking water lines, broken curbs andsidewalks, etc.

Most aged places cant fix it; the load its

too much, even with the best of leadership.

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

15/19

The Issue is the future of the county: core

redevelopment and renewal must Offset the loss of greenfield development.

Offset real estate depreciation anddemolition in the core.

Attract residents and businesses to the

core.

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

16/19

Offset the Loss of Greenfield Development

Normal 7-county market: 10,000 new homes.

Current split: 2,000 in Cuyahoga 8,000 in

other six counties.

Target split (2032): 5,000 in Cuyahoga 5,000in other six.

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

17/19

Cuyahoga County Housing Targets

2032 2017

Outer Suburbs 1,500 1,800

Inner Suburbs 1,000 200

Cleveland 2,500 500

Total 5,000 2,500

Double Downtown Cleveland by 2032Average 250 units per yearResult: population 20,000

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

18/19

Clevelands Future: Gain While Losing

Cleveland will continue to lose low-modhouseholds to suburbs but can gainmiddle- and upper-income households

(< 30 and > 50, no kids).

Job growth and immigrants help (but notthe fundamental problem, which is lack

of core renewal for middle- andupper-income).

8/3/2019 Cleveland's Housing Market: Continuing Loss but Opportunity for Gain, Thomas Bier, CSU

19/19

The Question

Will the 59 jurisdictions in Cuyahoga Countypull together and focus policies, programs andresources on renewing and rebuilding its old

core communities?