Cleeve Racing’s Flat Ten to Follow 2016 · RECORD STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST TS BEST RPR OR Flat Turf 30 6 5 5 £454,579 £507,194 112 119 115 All-weather 5 1

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Copyright of Cleeve Racing Ltd 2016

Cleeve Racing’s Flat Ten to Follow 2016

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Introduction

Hello there and a warm welcome to Cleeve Racing’s Ten to Follow list for the 2016 Flat season

We have put together a list of horses for you that we expect to generate a level stakes profit if

followed through the season - when race conditions are in their favour. We have chosen horses

that have already proved their quality across a broad range of race types including handicappers

on handy marks, Classic hopes, potential Cup horses and Group sprinters

With each entry there is an analysis that gives you the rationale behind why the selection has made

the list, and underlines the race conditions required to allow them to show their best form. Our

advice is to load them into a tracker which will notify you when they are running.

If you don’t use a tracker, or would rather that we notified you when they are running… along with a view on race conditions and their chances… we are offering a Ten to Follow email service for the

princely sum of £1.99. Given that the selections will be campaigned towards the top races of the

season this is a small investment that is well worth making (or you could just have an extra half of

lager in the pub on Saturday night!), as you can see we’re not looking to get rich out of it but it does

take some work on our part to provide the service.

All we need is your email address…. Sign up here for Cleeve’s TTF email service – only £1.99

We hope you enjoy reading through the list and that it generates plenty of excitement and profit

for you throughout the season!

Best wishes,

The Team at Cleeve Racing

http://www.cleeveracing.com/cleeve-ten-to-follow-download-page-2/

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Cleeve Ten to Follow horses 2016/2017 flat season

1. Goldream ................................................................................................ 4

2. Fun Mac (GER) ......................................................................................... 5

3. American Hope ........................................................................................ 6

1. Gretchen .................................................................................................. 7

4. Order of St George ................................................................................... 8

6. Marma's Boy ........................................................................................... 9

7. US Army Ranger ..................................................................................... 10

8. Postponed (IRE) ..................................................................................... 11

9. Minding (IRE) ........................................................................................ 12

10. Limato (IRE) .......................................................................................... 13

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1. Goldream 7-y-o Oasis Dream (7.4f) — Clizia (IRE) (Machiavellian

(USA) (9.2f))

Trainer Robert Cowell

Owner J Sargeant & Mrs J Morley

Goldream burst onto the sprinting scene last season after a good but not particularly notable

handicapping season in 2014, when he took class 2 races at Ascot and Newmarket.

He started last season off by taking the Group 3 Palace House Stakes quite tidily at Newmarket

from Justice Day before running down the field in the Temple Stakes at Haydock when stepped up

to Group 2, that was quite a messy race which saw all the prominent horses fall away in the final

furlong and a half… although the ground that day was reported as officially good it looked to ride

a bit softer which would not have suited the horse.

He then reappeared in a fiercely competitive Kings Stand at Royal Ascot on his favoured fast ground

where he belied odds of 20/1 to win by a short head and a neck from Medician Man and Muthmir.

Although only getting home in a photo he travelled very strongly for Martin Harley throughout the

race and looked the probable winner from a furlong out. After running well in 5th behind Mecca’s Angel in the Nunthorpe (on ground that was again softer than ideal), he capped off a fine season

with an impressive second Group 1 victory in the Prix L’Abbaye at Longchamp. He has since run

twice at Meydan over the winter but did not shine there, which will help his price when he runs

back in the UK.

Trainer Robert Morley felt that the horse had finally ‘learned how to race’ and had improved

markedly from 6 to 7… a factor that is not uncommon in top class sprinters. When conditions are in his favour he looks top class and he should be followed in any 5 furlong race that is run on

genuinely good or quicker going. He currently does not hold any entries, but I would expect him to

have a prep run in May prior to defending his crown in the King’s Stand at Royal Ascot.

RECORD STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST TS BEST RPR OR

Flat Turf 30 6 5 5 £454,579 £507,194 112 119 115

All-weather 5 1 1 0 £2,264 £3,246 80 87 115

Stakes 8 3 0 0 £401,720 £410,059 112 119 115

Rules Races 35 7 6 5 £456,843 £510,440 — — —

http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/stallionbook/stallion.sd?horse_id=565797&popup=1

http://bloodstock.racingpost.com/dam/dam_home.sd?horse_id=783095



http://www.racingpost.com/horses/trainer_home.sd?trainer_id=12057

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/owner_home.sd?owner_id=211356

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home.sd?horse_id=790179




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2. Fun Mac (GER) 5-y-o Shirocco (GER) (12.3f) — Favorite (GER) (Montjeu

(IRE) (11.8f))

Trainer Hughie Morrison

Owner Mrs Angela McAlpine & Partners

Fun Mac is the kind of horse who at first glance appears to be a slightly odd choice for a Ten to

Follow list, but I’m hopeful that this season we will see him reach his full potential and he’ll be

competitive in the top staying handicaps and even Cup races. Although only winning once last

season he and competed at a high level and ran consistently well all year, and as he was only a

4-y-o there could be plenty more improvement still to come from him.

His season kicked off with an easy win in a Class 3 handicap at Salisbury where he sauntered home

by 11 lengths despite being eased right down. He was then given a short break before returning at

Royal Ascot where he finished an admirable second to the classy Clondaw Warrior where he proved

how well he stays by making the favourite pull out all the stops over that marathon trip… despite

conceding 7lbs.

He finished the season off competing in two Group 1 races in France finishing 3rd in the Prix Cadran

beaten only 4 lengths, before running creditably in the Prix Royal Oak over a distance that would

have been well on the short side of his best trip

He will hopefully have filled out and strengthened up over the winter, but I do think he needs 2

miles 4 furlongs to show his best… indeed he won over 10 furlongs as a 2-y-o which underlines that

extreme stamina tests are always going to be his strong suit. He needs good or better going and

should be followed in races of 2 miles plus. I am not sure whether he is good enough to win a

competitive Group 1, but if he strengthens up I am sure he will give a good account of himself just

below the very top level, and will prove profitable to follow over the course of the season.


Flat Turf 15 3 3 2 £23,844 £80,878 99 110 108

All-weather 1 0 1 0 £0 £1,396 75 86 108

Stakes 4 0 1 1 £0 £40,541 87 110 108

Rules Races 16 3 4 2 £23,844 £82,273 — —











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3. American Hope 5-y-o Lemon Drop Kid (USA) (10.3f) — Cedrat (FR)

(Enrique (6.0f))

Trainer Saeed bin Suroor

Owner Godolphin

American Hope was purchased by Godolphin over the winter, and although that is normally a kiss

of death to a horses’ progression, I am hoping with John Ferguson’s involvement that might change.

Indeed, since making the switch he has run creditably in Meydan placing twice and winning once.

I think Godolphin were impressed (as was I) with his 6th place in the fiercely competitive Royal Hunt

Cup at Ascot in June where he was only beaten 3 lengths into 6th behind GM Hopkins. He missed

the break that day and trailed the far side group pretty much in last pace for the first half of the

race, before picking up really well. He was impeded slightly as he came through the field and would

have finished even closer but for that. That was his second good run in succession at the Royal

Meeting as the previous season he only went down by a couple of lengths in the Britannia despite

being badly drawn.

He needs genuinely good or preferably quicker going to show his best, and although he gets a mile

I think his best distance may well be a stiff 7 furlongs. Having said that he is bred to actually get

further than a mile… with his sire Lemon Drop Kid winning up to 1 mile 2 furlongs at Grade 1 level

on fast going.

His win strike rate to date has not been overly impressive (2/16), and on paper he looks quite a

strange buy as he seems pretty exposed, but the boys from Godolphin must have seen something

and on his Meydan form he already looks to have taken a noticeable step forward. He starts the

season on a reasonable handicap mark and I expect him aimed at the big Heritage Handicaps, with

the Hunt Cup likely to be on the agenda once again.


Flat Turf 7 1 1 0 £48,980 £60,819 98 109 100

All-weather 9 1 4 1 £7,012 £51,266 95 103 100

Stakes 3 0 1 1 £0 £13,656 95 103 100

Rules Races 16 2 5 1 £55,992 £112,085 — —










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1. Gretchen 4-y-o Galileo (IRE) (11.2f) — Dolores (Danehill

(USA) (9.2f))

Trainer John Gosden

Owner Normandie Stud Ltd

I was at the Curragh for Gretchen’s run in the Irish Oaks and it was the first time that I’d got to see this daughter of prolific classic sire Galileo (who sired many horses in this list) in the flesh, and she

really took my eye. This was a big step up to Group 1 class as it was only her 3rd run and she still

looked quite unfurnished in the paddock. She didn’t disgrace herself being beaten 7 lengths in 7th,

and the ground may just have been a bit soft for her after overnight rain (she was quite weak in

the market), and Andrea Atzeni didn’t give her too hard a time of it once it was clear she wouldn’t make the frame. She improved rapidly as the season progressed going on to take a listed fillies

event at Newmarket, before capping her season with a game win in the Group 2 Park Hill Stakes at

Doncaster in September… where she looked to win with something in hand even if the distance

was only a neck. She has a likeable racing style with a decent cruising speed and travels kindly

responding to pressure generously when a question is asked.

The key thing that sees her inclusion in the list, is that I am convinced there is better yet to come

and she could just go right to the top of the tree as a 4-y-o. Indeed if she can fulfil the potential she

has shown to date, I could even see her ending up as a lively outsider for the Arc.

But before we try to breathe that rarified air we’ll be following her on genuinely good or quicker

ground at a mile and a half and upwards. I expect her to start off at Group 2 level but should she

be put into Group 1 class straight away I would see it as a big positive… trainer John Gosden is adept

at placing these fillies to best effect and wouldn’t be over facing her if he didn’t think she was up to it. I suspect she will have a run in May prior to heading to Royal Ascot.


Flat Turf 5 3 0 0 £77,604 £82,629 75 106 106

Stakes 4 2 0 0 £73,723 £78,748 75 106 106

Rules Races 5 3 0 0 £77,604 £82,629 — —










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4. Order of St George

4-y-o Galileo (IRE) (11.2f) — Another Storm (USA) (Gone

West (USA) (8.2f))

Trainer A P O'Brien

Owner M Tabor/D Smith/Mrs Magnier/L J Williams

This is definitely the horse we want to be following in the big Cup races this season, as I have rarely

seen a Group 1 race won as easily as Order of St George won the Irish St Leger last September. He

simply romped home to win by eleven lengths from the likes of Agent Murphy, Forgotten Rules and

Wicklow Brave. There was a risk that the form could be overshadowed by the fatal injury suffered

by Brown Panther, but the bookies are taking no chances and already quote him as short as 3/1 for

The Ascot Gold Cup.

He didn’t pull up any trees as a 2-y-o and looked well down the pecking order at Ballydoyle, but he

was possibly just slow coming to hand and as it always looked as though stamina was going to be

his forte. Aiden gave him plenty of time to develop and that patience was rewarded as he took a

big step forward in his 3-y-o career making his debut in the Group 3 Curragh Cup where he just

failed to overhaul the subsequent St. Leger winner; Bondi Beach, with a yawning gap back to 3rd.

He subsequently remained unbeaten in 3 races being an impressive wide margin winner on each

occasion, and we’re still really wondering just how high a mark he can go on and achieve.

If he has improved again over the close season he really will be very hard to beat in all the top

distance races regardless of conditions, as so far he seems to handle everything he has come up

against with ease.

After his St. Leger stroll, the Boys at Coolmore sold a 50% share in him to big Australian owner Tim

Lloyd and he was an intended runner in last year’s Melbourne Cup, but it was felt that too hard a

season would be too risky and he didn’t get on the plane. His season will probably be geared around

Ascot and Melbourne, and if he stays sound I can see him taking both races.


Flat Turf 9 4 3 0 £207,162 £227,214 114 125 124

Stakes 5 2 2 0 £187,597 £205,166 114 125 124

Rules Races 9 4 3 0 £207,162 £227,214 — —










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6. Marma's Boy 4-y-o Duke of Marmalade (IRE) (10.5f) — Graduation

(Lomitas (11.2f)

Trainer Ralph Beckett

Owner Robert Ng

I am hoping that Marma’s Boy remains in training as he has not been seen since Royal Ascot last

June when he finished third in the King George V Stakes (Handicap), beaten only 2 lengths by Space

Age… who incidentally was given (in my eyes anyway as he was the last leg of a Trixie with winners

Curvy and Time Test!). He travelled well that day but Buick rode a peach of a race from a bad draw

and caught them on the hop slowing it down before kicking hard on the home turn, Marma’s Boy had to come wide into the straight which would have cost him a length or so and on this his first

try at 12 furlongs he ran on all the way to the line, but the leader just had enough to last home

(hoorah!).

The form of that Ascot race has worked out really well with the two in front of Marma’s Boy; Space

Age (winner) running well at Group 3 level and Scottish (second) winning at Listed level and placing

in a Group 3. There have also been plenty of bold showings from those behind, notably the Queens

Dartmouth (6th) who won his next two starts.

That was the last time we saw Marma’s Boy’s and either he got a bit jarred up by the ultra-fast

ground, or, as we only saw him 3 times as a 2-y-o as well… he might be a bit difficult to keep sound.

Sired by Duke of Marmalade he is always going to be better on good or quicker ground and should

stay a mile and a half at least. Currently he has no entries showing, but if reappearing in a handicap

with conditions to suit he looks to be on a very, very decent mark.


Flat Turf 5 1 2 1 £9,338 £18,734 76 93 89

All-weather 1 1 0 0 £2,911 £2,911 57 78 89

Rules Races 6 2 2 1 £12,249 £21,645 — —










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7. US Army Ranger

3-y-o Galileo (IRE) (11.2f) — Moonstone

(Dalakhani (IRE) (11.2f))

Trainer A P O'Brien

Owner Mrs John Magnier & Michael Tabor &

Derrick Smith

This once raced son of Galileo has moved up to be one of the top fancies for the Epsom Derby. I

know it is hard to tell from one race if a horse is going to be the next big thing, but US Army Ranger

was effortless when winning at the Curragh. He dwelt a bit at the start of the race but moved well

through the race and quickened and stayed on to win readily under a hands and heels ride from

Ryan Moore. Dermot Weld’s Aasheq was backed into hot favourite that day (it’s worth noting that

he recently let the form down behind The Gurkha; another Coolmore horse), but Ryan Moore

stated that he hadn’t needed to reach for top gear to win and this was an impressive start. Aiden

O’Brien had said that the horse had suffered a slight setback as a 2-y-o that meant he never got to

the track, and on the evidence of this debut there is still plenty more to come.

It is interesting that he was still available at 50/1 for the Derby a week before this debut, but was

steadily backed down to 16/1 before the race so must have been showing some good form at home

(Aiden said he had been working well with group class horses). Since the race he has seen a weight

of money force him into 3/1 favourite and he looks to be Ballydoyle’s first choice for the race.

The plan with him now looks to be a trial at either York or Chester and then straight on to Epsom.

He holds entries for all the top races and if he does build on the potential he showed on his debut

there is no reason we won’t see this beautifully bred colt turn out to be right at the forefront of all

the top international 3-y-o middle distance races in 2016.


Flat Turf 1 1 0 0 £6,783 £6,783 11 97 —

Rules Races 1 1 0 0 £6,783 £6,783 — —










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8. Postponed (IRE) 5-y-o Dubawi (IRE) (9.5f) — Ever Rigg (Dubai

Destination (USA) (9.5f))

Trainer Roger Varian

Owner Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum

I have been very impressed by Postponed ever since he won the Great Voltigeur at York as a 3-y-

o. He has since gone on (as a 4-y-o) to win the King George and the Prix Foy, and is unbeaten in

two races at Meydan in the winter including the Group 1 Sheema Classic to take his career earnings

over the £3.5 million mark. Before going to Dubai he was controversially moved from Luca Cumani’s yard to Roger Varian along with Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum’s whole string in what must have been a devastating blow to Cumani who had been with the owner for 20 years.

Maybe the move had something to do with the ride he received from Adam Kirby in the Hardwick

Stakes when he and Eagle top eyeballed each other all the way round doing each other no favours

at all. Kirby was held out wide with no cover and ran to free and Snow Sky (who he had already put

in his place at York) kicked off the turn and although Postponed tried all the way to the line he had

expended too much energy in the early part of the race.

Although you couldn’t say on the evidence of his fine 3rd in the Irish Champion behind proven Group

1 Al Kazeem that he isn’t effective at a mile and a quarter, to my mind he has shown beyond doubt

that 12 furlongs is his optimum trip, and given that he seems quite at home on any type of ground

I think he is going to be very hard to beat in any race over that distance this season. I must admit I

hope that he is given a break when he gets back from Dubai and doesn’t appear until mid-season,

as I hope to see him campaigned towards the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, defending his King George

crown en route to Paris. He has had two runs in Meydan and Luca Cumani deserves much credit

for this colts’ development, but I am sure that Roger Varian will handle the horse’s placement just

as well in the coming season.


Flat Turf 15 7 2 4 £3,408,149 £3,588,994 117 125 121

Stakes 12 6 1 4 £3,405,238 £3,475,383 117 125 121

Rules Races 15 7 2 4 £3,408,149 £3,588,994 — —










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9. Minding (IRE) 3-y-o Galileo (IRE) (11.2f) — Lillie Langtry

(IRE) (Danehill Dancer (IRE) (8.4f))

Trainer A P O'Brien

Owner Derrick Smith & Mrs John Magnier &

Michael Tabor

Minding is a beautifully bred filly out of top class dam Lily Langtry by dual Derby winner Galileo (yet

again!). She jumped to the top of the antepost markets for both the 1,000 Guineas and the Oaks

when she disposed of her better fancied stablemate Ballydoyle in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes

over 7 furlongs by a convincing length, staying on much the better of the two. She had previously

finished 2 lengths behind her stablemate when reappearing after a mid-season break on much

faster ground and I rate the two close together.

She then went over to Newmarket for the Dubai Fillies mile where she simply bolted home…. Travelling kindly for Ryan Moore in behind the leaders she quickened as soon as she was asked a

question going into the dip, and powered clear in the final furlong coming home almost 5 lengths

clear of John Gosden’s filly Nathra. Only a week earlier Ballydoyle had franked the Moyglare form

when taking the Group 1 Marcel Boussac on Arc day

She looks like the most likely winner of the first Guineas classic as long as she has trained on and

the biggest danger indeed looks to be Ballydoyle, but the two are bound to be kept apart in the

English and French Guineas…. The only way I would see her not lining up at Newmarket is if the

ground is super-fast which looks most unlikely given the recent weather. She settles so well in her

races that with her temperament she has every chance of staying the Oaks trip and quotes of 10/1

with Bet365 to take both races will look very tasty indeed should she take the Guineas. She is likely

to go straight to Newmarket and no-one is more adept than Aiden O’Brien to getting one ready for a Classic first time out.

RECORD

STAR

TS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS

BEST

TS

BEST

RPR OR

Flat Turf 5 3 2 0 £446,399 £465,383 108 119 120

Stakes 3 2 1 0 £437,573 £454,511 108 119 120

Rules Races 5 3 2 0 £446,399 £465,383 — —











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10. Limato (IRE) 4-y-o Tagula (IRE) (7.0f) — Come April (Singspiel

(IRE) (10.4f))

Trainer Henry Candy

Owner Paul G Jacobs

I think Limato has the natural ability to challenge for all the top 6 furlong sprint honours this season

this season as he has a high cruising speed and has shown a serious turn of foot at the end of his

races.

Trainer Henry Candy is keen to see if this son of Tagula will stay a mile and has given him a Locking

entry, and on the basis of a very impressive group 2 win at Doncaster over 7 furlongs he is right to

have a shot at that valuable prize. However the key to Limato is fast ground and given recent

conditions at the Berkshire track (the Greenham meeting had to be moved to Chelmsford because

of a waterlogged track) it wouldn’t surprise me if he misses the race.

He had an impressive juvenile season when he was unbeaten in four, finishing off the campaign as

one of the easiest winners of Redcar’s 2-y-o Trophy I have ever seen. In his 3-y-o season he was

never out of the first two in 4 outings, and although he was visually impressive at Doncaster, his

best run was probably behind Muharrer (champion 3-y-o sprinter) in the inaugural Commonwealth

Cup at Royal Ascot, where after being slowly away he was forced to come up the unfavoured stands

side and found himself with nothing to race against. His only other defeat last season was in the

Sandy Lane stakes at Haydock behind Adaay when the ground was probably a bit slower than he

likes.

Genuinely good or quicker going in a big field with a strong pace on a stiff track are the ideal race

conditions for Limato, which makes races like the Kings Stand and the July Cup look ideal targets.

Should he show he can stay 7 furlongs and a mile in Group 1 company with his turn of foot he will

be a very exciting horse indeed!


Flat Turf 7 4 3 0 £233,759 £393,414 102 123 119

All-weather 2 2 0 0 £8,813 £8,813 76 100 —

Stakes 7 4 3 0 £233,759 £393,414 102 123 119

Rules Races 9 6 3 0 £242,571 £402,227 — —











Documents

Cleeve Racing’s Flat Ten to Follow 2016 · RECORD STARTS WINS 2NDS 3RDS WINNINGS EARNINGS BEST TS BEST RPR OR Flat Turf 30 6 5 5 £454,579 £507,194 112 119 115 All-weather 5 1