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Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Causes for Persistence in Inter Annual Variability of 3 Layer Soil Moisture
Estimates in the Colorado River Basin
ATMO 529
Class Project Presentation
Seshadri Rajagopal
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Motivation
• Soil moisture plays an important role in land- atmosphere interactions at a variety of time scales
• Similar to SST it is a slow changing variable. In other words there is a persistence in SM
• Distributed observations of soil moisture are rare to find
• Most of the analysis is performed on GCM based assimilated values or from Hydrologic models
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Background
• VIC is a hydrologic model that solves for full water and energy balance
• Takes basic atmospheric variables such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed etc as inputs
• Apart from other output it generates, for current purpose I use the soil moisture values
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Tasks
• Perform correlation analysis• Perform SVD analysis on the soil moisture data to
identify dominant modes of variability• Perform REOF analysis to identify regionalized patterns
Testable Hypothesis • Layer 1 soil moisture will show variability similar to the
ENSO index, whereas in the deeper layers (2, 3) due to persistence will correlate better to the PDO signal
• The spatial patterns of will indicate a higher dominance of PDO in the upper basin, and higher dominance of ENSO in the lower basin
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 1SM and Nino3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 winter index &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 spring index &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 summer index &Summer Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 fall index &Fall Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 1SM and PDO
Correlation coefficients for the PDO winter index &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.5
0
0.5
Correlation coefficients for the PDO spring index &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.5
0
0.5
Correlation coefficients for the PDO summer index &Summer Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the PDO fall index &Fall Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 2SM and Nino3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 winter index &Winter Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
115 W 110
W
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 spring index &Spring Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
115 W 110
W
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 summer index &Summer Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
115 W 110
W
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 fall index &Fall Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
115 W 110
W
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 2SM and PDO
Correlation coefficients for the PDO winter index &Winter Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the PDO spring index &Spring Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Correlation coefficients for the PDO summer index &Summer Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Correlation coefficients for the PDO fall index &Fall Layer 2 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 3SM and Nino3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 winter index &Winter Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 spring index &Spring Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 summer index &Summer Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
Correlation coefficients for the Nino3 fall index &Fall Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Correlation Analysis – Layer 3SM and PDO
Correlation coefficients for the PDO winter index &Winter Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Correlation coefficients for the PDO spring index &Spring Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Correlation coefficients for the PDO summer index &Summer Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.5
0
0.5
Correlation coefficients for the PDO fall index &Fall Layer 3 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-0.5
0
0.5
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Layer 1 SM PC1 and Nino3
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Regression coefficients for the Nino3 &WinterLayer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Regression coefficients for the Nino3 &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
Var Explained = 47%
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
PC1 time-series and Nino3
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized Nino3 winter index
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized Nino3 spring index
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized Nino3 summer index
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized Nino3 fall index
PC1
Nino3
R = 0.47
R = 0.31
R = 0.19
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Layer 1 SM PC1 and PDO
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Regression coefficients for the PDO &WinterLayer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Regression coefficients for the PDO &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Layer 1 SM REOF 1 & 2 and Nino3
Regression coefficients for the REOF1 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Regression coefficients for the Nino3 &WinterLayer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Regression coefficients for the REOF2 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Regression coefficients for the Nino3 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Layer 3 SM PC1 and PDO
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Regression coefficients for the PDO &WinterLayer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Regression coefficients for the PC1 &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-2
0
2
4
6
8
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
Regression coefficients for the PDO &Spring Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Var Explained = 33%
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
PC1 time-series and PDO
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized PDO winter index
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized PDO spring index
-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized PDO summer index
1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004-0.5
0
0.5PC1 and Normalized PDO fall index
PC1
PDO
R = 0.52
R = 0.57
R = 0.52
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Layer 3 REOF 1 & 2 and PDO
Regression coefficients for the REOF1 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Regression coefficients for the PDO &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Regression coefficients for the REOF2 &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Regression coefficients for the PDO &Winter Layer1 Soil Moisture anomaly
125 W 120
W 115
W 110
W 105
W
35 N
40 N
45 N
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Dec 3, 2007 ATMO 529
Class project presentation
Summary
• Nino3 is more influential on layer 1 soil moisture– This make intuitive sense as the top layer soil
moisture will follow an annual cycle (similar to the precipitation cycle)
• Layer 3 soil moisture follows similar cycles as the PDO– This indicates that there is more hydrologic memory in
the deep layer soil moisture.
