City of Detroit Cash Flow Forecast Report

8/3/2019 City of Detroit Cash Flow Forecast Report

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4A

+

8F

Cash

Flow

Forecast

Report

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TableofContents

Page Title Comments

4 CashPosition City'scashpositionon10/28/11of$96.1million

6 GeneralFund:Variance17weeksended10/28/11 Variancebetween08/09/11Forecast(OriginalForecast)andactualreceipts

anddisbursementsforthe17weeks ended10/28/11

9 GeneralFund:Reforecast13weeksending01/27/12 13weekreforecastofcashreceiptsanddisbursementsthrough01/27/12

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10 GeneralFund:Reforecast4A+8F MonthlyreforecastthroughendofFY2012,06/30/12with$44millionshortfall

12 16 Water&Sewerage:Variancereportandreforecast Variancereportfor17weeksended10/28/11andmonthlyreforecastthrough06/30/11

18 22 DDOT(Transportation)Variancereportandreforecast Variancereportfor17weeksended10/28/11andmonthlyreforecastthrough06/30/11

24 28 MunicipalParking:Variancereportandreforecast Variancereportfor17weeksended10/28/11andmonthlyreforecastthrough06/30/11



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Cash

Position



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Variance

Report

&

ReforecastGeneralFund



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PRELIMINARYDRAFTGeneralFund

Reforecastthrough06/30/12

$inmillionsEndingcashonJune30,2012(perOriginalForecast) 54.9$ Note

Neteffectoflowerpropertytaxcollections currentyear (18.1) 1

Propertytax

distributions

prior

year (11.9)

2

Incometaxcollections (11.5) 3

Gamingtaxes 4.2 4

Municipalservicesfee:casinos (1.2) 5

DistributableStateaid 15.1 6

Payroll (5.1) 7

Pension (6.5) 8

Subsidy (1.5) 9

Other 3.5

EndingcashonJune30,2012(reforecast) 22.0

Riskadjustments

IncrementalDDOTsubsidy (18.2) 10

Incometaxrevenueinitiatives (22.9) 11

Electricalfees(DPS) 12

Parkingbootinitiative (10.0) 13

Costsavings (15.0) 14

Totalriskadjustments (66.1)

EndingcashbalanceonJune30,2012(riskadjusted) (44.1)$

Notes:

1. Loweractualreceiptstodateassumedtobepermanent

2. Distributionsrelatedtoprioryearwerehigherthanforecast;amountassumedtobepermanent

3. Loweractualreceiptstodateassumedtobepermanent

4. $4.2millionincrementalcasinotaxreceivedforcasinoreceiptsgreaterthan$400million

5. ActualreceiptinAugustwas$1.2millionlowerthanforecast;assumedtobepermanent

6. Higheractualreceipttodateassumedtobepermanent

7. $2.4millionduetopaymentrelatedtowithholdingsfromprioryear;$2.6millionFY2012varianceassumedtobepermanent

8. EstimatedGRScontributionpaymentsrevisedbasedonmostrecentactuarialreport

9.

Includes$1.5

million

of

permanent

variance

for

Airport

and

Museum

subsidies.

DDOT

subsidy

variance

considered

timing

related

10.BasedonDDOTOctober28,2011cashforecastforFY2012;totalriskof$18.2million

11.Assumesportionofincometaxrevenueinitiativesarenotrealized,basedonactualperformancetodate

12.DPSriskadjustmentremovedbasedonagreementwithDPStopay$15millionofpastdueamount

13.Reductionduetopotentialdelayofbootrevenueinitiative

14.Assumes$15millionoftheCityCouncilmandated$25millionofcostsavingsarenotrealizedduringFY2012



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VarianceReport&Reforecast

WaterandSewerage



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Variance17weeksended10/28/11

$inmillionsEndingcashbalanceasof10/28/11

Actual 32.8$

Forecast(per

Original

Forecast) 46.2

Variance (13.4)

Variancedetail Note

Lowerwater/seweragebillingcollections (39.5) 1

Highercollectionofdelinquentwater/seweragebills 7.4 2

Higherpayrolldisbursements (1.3)

Lowerbenefitspayments 11.4 3

HigherA/Pdisbursements (4.7) 4

HigherIABpayments (8.3) 5

LowerI&E

Fund

set

asides 32.0

6

Highersetasidesfordebtpayments (9.8) 7

Other (0.6)

Totalvariance (13.4)$

Notes:

1. Expectedtobetimingrelated

2. Collectionofdelinquentbillswerenotforecast


4. Relatedtopastduepaymentsthatwerenotforecast

5.

Timingrelated;

entire

FY

2012

payment

made

in

September

2011

6. Expectedtobetimingrelated;setasidesmadeasfundsareavailable

7. Expectedtobetimingrelated;setasidesmadeasfundsareavailable



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ReforecastFY20124A+8F


Pastdue

collections 8.3

1

Capitalprojectsreimbursements 0.7 2

Investmentearnings (3.5) 3

Misc.receipts (3.8) 4

Payroll (2.0) 5

Benefits (3.8) 6

Pension (0.6) 7

A/P (4.7) 8

Utilities (5.4) 9

IAB 18.2

10Misc.disbursements (4.3) 11

Other 0.2

EndingcashonJune30,2012(reforecast) 43.4$

Notes:

1. Higheractualpastduebillingcollections

2. Highercapitalprojectreimbursementsforecastduetohighercapitalprojectrelateddisbursementsforecast

3.

Removedinvestment

earnings

collections

due

to

current

market

conditions

and

minimal

cash

available

to

invest

4. Removedmiscellaneousreceiptcollectionsduetoactualrunrate;actualmiscellaneousreceiptshavebeenminimal

5. Higherpayrolldisbursementsforecastduetoactualrunrate

6. Higheractualbenefitspaymentsduetopastduepayments

7. Loweractualpensionpayments;actualFY2011pastduepaymentlowerthanforecast

8. HigheractualA/Pdisbursementsduetopastduepayments

9. Higherutilitiespaymentsforecastduetoactualrunrate

10. LoweractualIABpayments;FY2011actualassumedinforecast,additionalresearchunderwaytodeterminewhetherpastduepayments

wereincluded

11.

Highermiscellaneous

disbursements

forecast

due

to

actual

run

rate

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DDOT


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Actual 7.8$

Forecast(per

Original

Forecast) 3.2

Variance 4.5

Variancedetail Note

Highercollections 0.5

Lowergrantcollections (4.7) 1

HigherGeneralFundsubsidy 1.5

Lowerbenefitspayments 6.0 2


HigherA/Pdisbursements (7.4) 4

Lower

grant

disbursements 2.1

5LowerGeneralFundloanrepayment 8.0 6

HigherDTC(PeopleMover)grantrelateddisbursements 2.1 7

Other 0.5

Total 4.5$

Notes:


2. $3.4millionpastduepaymentoffsetby$9.4millionofcurrentyearpaymentsnotmade

3. Timingrelated;entireFY2012paymentmade

4.

Primarilydue

to

higher

past

due

payments


6. Loanrepaymentwillnotoccur;permanentvariance

7. Expectedtobetimingrelated;full$3.4millionpaymentwasforecastinOctober



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Transportation


$inmillionsEndingcashonJune30,2012(perOriginalForecast) (25.5)$ Note

Collections 1.5

1Benefits (1.5) 2

Pension (1.2) 3

A/P (7.4) 4

Maintenancegrant 7.4 5

GeneralFundloanrepayment 8.0 6

Other 0.5

EndingcashonJune30,2012(reforecast) (18.2)$

Notes:

1. Actualcollectionshigherthanforecast

2. Higheractualpastduebenefitspayments($3.4millionpastduepayment,$1.9millionpaymenthadbeenforecast)

3. Higheractualpensionpaymentsduetopastduepayments

4. HigheractualA/Pdisbursementsprimarilyduetopastduepayments

5. Lowermaintenancegrantdisbursements;removed$8millionrelatedtopayrollbeingcapturedinpayrolldisbursements

6. GrantrelateddisbursementswerenotmadeonDDOT'sbehalfbyGeneralFund;loanhadnotbeenmadesorepaymentnotrequired




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MunicipalParking


PRELIMINARYDRAFTParking


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Parking



Actual 4.8$

Forecast

(per

Original

Forecast) 5.0

Variance (0.2)

VarianceDetail Note

Highergarage&lotcollection 0.6


Other (0.1)

Total (0.2)$

Notes:

1.

$0.6million

entire

FY

2012

payment

made

(timing)



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Parking



Collections 0.6

1Revenueinitiativecollections (0.2) 2

A/P (0.1) 3

IAB (0.1) 4

Other 0.0

EndingcashonJune30,2012(reforecast) 5.3$

Notes:

1. Actualcollectionshigherthanforecast

2.

Revenueinitiative

collections

removed

as

project

has

not

yet

been

approved

3. HigheractualA/Pdisbursementsduetopastduepayments

4. HigheractualIABdisbursementsduetopastduepayments,partiallyoffsetbylowerFY2012payment




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Disclaimer

Theattachedscheduleofcashflowvariances(theVarianceAnalysis)andcashflows(theForecastedCashFlows),itsassumptionsandunderlyingdataaretheproductoftheCityofDetroit(COD)

anditsmanagement(Management)andconsistofinformationobtainedsolelyfromCOD.

WithrespecttoprospectivefinancialinformationrelativetoCOD,Ernst&YoungLLP(EY)didnotexamine,compileorapplyagreeduponprocedurestosuchinformationinaccordancewithattestation

standardsestablishedbytheAICPAandEYexpressesnoassuranceofanykindontheinformationpresented. EYdidnotassistinthepreparationorassemblyofCOD'sprospectivefinancialinformation

orinthedevelopmentofanyassumptionstherein.

ItisCODsresponsibilitytomakeitsowndecisionbasedontheinformationavailabletoit. Managementhastheknowledge,experienceandabilitytoformitsownconclusionsrelatedtoCODsVariance

AnalysisandForecastedCashFlows.

Therewillusuallybedifferencesbetweenforecastedandactualresultsbecauseeventsandcircumstancesfrequentlydonotoccurasexpectedandthosedifferencesmaybematerial.EYtakesno

responsibilityfortheachievementofforecastedresults. Accordingly,relianceonthisreportisprohibitedbyanythirdpartyastheprojectedfinancialinformationcontainedhereinissubjecttomaterial

changeandmaynotreflectactualresults.

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Documents

City of Detroit Cash Flow Forecast Report