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CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN: DEMAND FORECAST DEEP-DIVE & SCENARIO DISCUSSION

CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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Page 1: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN: DEMAND FORECAST DEEP-DIVE & SCENARIO DISCUSSION

Page 2: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

| 2| 2| 2| 2

HIGH-LEVEL INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN TIMELINE

IRP Draft review and

updates

2020 Plan presented to City Council

Creating the framework

Conduct Analysis

10/24/2017 1/16/2018 3/7/2018 5/2/2018

Q3/Q4

2019

Q4 2019/

Q1 2020Q1/Q2

2020

Q3

2020

Demand

Forecast &

Scenarios

(12/13)

Portfolio Results &

Review Draft

Recommendations

(April/May)

IRP

Process &

Scenarios

(1/10)

Resource

Adequacy

& Climate

Change

(Feb)

Review

scenarios

and

Portfolios

(March)

Page 3: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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GOALS OF DEEP DIVE

1 Understand the Baseline Demand Forecast

2 Discussion on scenario planning

- Methodology overview

- Walkthrough baseline forecast results

- What alternative futures to consider

- Crafting demand scenarios with some illustrative examples

- How to prioritize future development work

Page 4: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

Methodology Overview

Page 5: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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Why did we move from econometric to

end-use based demand forecasting?

Page 6: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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End-Use Forecast

Adjustments

System forecast

for IRP

Residential & Commercial delivered sales that includes: economic

drivers, stock turnover, codes & standard and naturally occurring

efficiency

Industrial, electric vehicles, distributed generation & large transit

electrification but no programmatic efficiency

Losses + Own

UseGross up from energy delivered at the meter to delivered at the system

Annual system load which requires additional shaping

Page 7: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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Core Loads

EVs

DG

Spot Load

New Residential

Cooling

An

nu

al

aM

W

Fo

recast

s

Shaping

Models

(Monthly,

Hourly)

System

Forecasts for

IRP

Weather SensitiveB

roken

ou

t o

f

en

d-u

se m

od

el

Weath

er

sen

siti

ve

ho

url

y f

ore

cast

s

SHAPING ANNUAL TO HOURLY

Page 8: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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DEMAND FORECAST DEVELOPMENT WORK

Leverage more City Light specific data to better

calibrate end-use model

Reflect new state and city legislation

Incorporate load shape impacts from changes in end-

use saturations

1

3

2

Page 9: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

Baseline Forecast

Page 10: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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End-Use Forecast (Annual aMW)

Page 11: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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BASE YEAR (2019) DELIVERED LOAD BY CUSTOMER CLASS & SEGMENT

58

6 a

MW

34

8 a

MW

Commercial Residential

Page 12: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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BASE YEAR (2019) DELIVERED RESIDENTIAL LOAD BY END USE

HVAC

Plug Loads

Appliances

Water

Heating

Lighting

Oth

er

34

8 a

MW

Page 13: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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BASE YEAR (2019) COMMERCIAL DELIVERED LOAD BY END USE

HVAC

Lighting

58

6 a

MW

Page 14: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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END-USE STOCK TURNOVER EXAMPLE: RESIDENTIAL SINGLE FAMILY FREEZERS

Weighted average intensity of freezers

declines by ~10% over time with

efficient equipment replacement

Page 15: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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THE ECONOMY IS COOLING

*Employment & Housing Forecast based on IHS Seattle Metro economic forecast

Assume that commercial floorspace generally

moves inline with employment

~90% of new premises are multi-family

Page 16: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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RESIDENTIAL DELIVERED LOADS

Zoomed In

AAGR: -0.3% AAGR: +0.4%

AAGR: +0.1%

Page 17: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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HVAC efficiency driven by Electric

Resistance to Heat Pump conversion

Incr

ease

s Lo

ad

Decr

ease

s Lo

ad

RESIDENTIAL YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGES

2020 EISA lighting standard, 2014 Appliance Standards & 2015

Water Heater standards driving near-term efficiency gains

Load Decline Load Growth

Page 18: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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COMMERCIAL DELIVERED LOADS

Zoomed In

AAGR: +0.4% AAGR: +0.3%AAGR: -0.1%

AAGR: +0.2%

Page 19: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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COMMERCIAL YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGES

Efficiency in lighting driven by adoption of high-performance

fluorescents and EISA standards for screw-in bulbs

Incr

ease

s Lo

ad

Decr

ease

s Lo

ad

Page 20: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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Adjustments (Annual aMW)

Page 21: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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INDUSTRIAL FORECAST

2019 Industrial Sales are

down ~10% from 2018

Long-term Industrial sales

expected to decline ~0.4% per

year with manufacturing

employment

Industrial Customers

ARDAGH GLASS

ASH GROVE CEMENT

BOEING

CERTAINTEED

DARIGOLD INC

LAFARGE CORPORATION

NUCOR

PORT OF SEATTLE

STEVEDORING

VIGOR

Page 22: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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*From

CORE LOADS BY CUSTOMER CLASS

Residential

Commercial

Industrial

AAGR -0.1%

Zoomed Out Zoomed In

AAGR: +0.1%

AAGR: +0.3%

Page 23: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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ELECTRIC VEHICLES FORECAST

Same forecasts used for RMI study. We adopt BAU for the baseline forecast.

Light Duty Electric Vehicle Forecast Electric Vehicle Energy (aMW) Impact

Page 24: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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DISTRIBUTED GENERATION

From 2020 Cadmus Solar PV Potential Study. We adopt Extended WA Incentive for the baseline forecast.

Residential Expected Generation (aMW) Commercial Expected Generation (aMW)

Page 25: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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LARGE TRANSIT ELECTRIFICATION

*From

Page 26: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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Apply Shapings (Annual to Hourly) and

Weather Sensitivities

Page 27: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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Annual Forecast Component Shaping Model Description

Core Loads (RES + COM + IND)Hourly level model fit to historical system load data that

accounts for weather, day of week effects and holidays

Solar NREL System Advisor Model (SAM)

New Residential CoolingResidential building simulation model: Simplified Energy

Enthalpy Model (SEEM)

Electric Vehicles DOE EV Project data for Washington State

Large Transit Engineering studies

Weather Sensitive Shapes

Bro

ken

ou

t o

f

en

d-u

se m

od

el

Page 28: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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*From

TYPICAL WEEKDAY 24 HR NON-COINCIDENT LOAD SHAPES

Dual peak

winter shape

Evening peaks grow by

100 MW from EVs

Summer peaks grow by ~150

MW compared to 2020 from

increased AC saturationSingle peak

summer shape

Page 29: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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*From

CRITICAL WEEKDAY NON-COINCIDENT 24 HR LOAD SHAPES

New AC ~50 MW higher

on critical day

Core loads ~ 200 MW higher on

critical winter day and ~140MW

higher on critical summer day

P90 event in 2040 looks like

2020 p95 type of event200 MW increase in

critical summer loads

relative to 2020

Page 30: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

Demand Scenarios

Page 31: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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What are they key themes to consider for demand scenarios?

Policies & Regulation Market Transformations

Technology Adoption Climate Change

• Taxes & incentives

• CETA, Clean Buildings Act, OSE

Benchmarking…etc

• Deep decarbonization proposals

• Equipment efficiency improvements

• Load from new end-uses

• Equipment adoption under

electrification

• Energy as a service

• Micro grids & consumer aggregators

• Large customer exits

• Which GCM scenarios to use

• Weather data coverage

• Socioeconomic impacts

What Else?

The Economy

• Will Seattle continue to boom?

• Could Seattle have a struggling

economy?

Page 32: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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EXAMPLE SCENARIOS

All buildings electrify with high EV adoption

New buildings electrify with high EV adoption

Sustained economic growth

Deep recession with slow recovery

Energy as a service, microgrids & customer aggregation

3

4

1

2

5

HIGH GROWTH

DEMAND

DESTRUCTIONDR

AFT

Page 33: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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All buildings electrify with high EV adoption:

• No new natural gas in all new construction

• Existing building stock is converted to 100% electric

• Rate of conversion is non-linear (backloaded)

o Assume high efficiency heat pump conversion for Residential

• Commercial based on existing end-use equipment assumptions

• High EV adoption scenario from RMI Study

CRAFTING THE SCENARIO: ALL BUILDINGS ELECTRIFY

WITH HIGH EV ADOPTION

1D

RA

FT

Page 34: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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EXAMPLE SCENARIO RESULTS

+340 aMW (+30%)

+65 aMW (+6%)

+27 aMW (+2%)

-29 aMW (-3%)DR

AFT

Page 35: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN

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HIGH-LEVEL INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN TIMELINE

IRP Draft review and

updates

2020 Plan presented to City Council

Creating the framework

Conduct Analysis

10/24/2017 1/16/2018 3/7/2018 5/2/2018

Q3/Q4

2019

Q4 2019/

Q1 2020Q1/Q2

2020

Q3

2020

Demand

Forecast &

Scenarios

(12/13)

Portfolio Results

& Review Draft

Recommendatio

ns (April/May)

IRP

Process &

Scenarios

(1/10)

Resource

Adequacy

& Climate

Change

(Feb)

Review

scenarios

and

Portfolios

(March)

Page 36: CITY LIGHT 2020 INTEGRATED RESOURCE PLAN