Click to edit Master title style

City Issues and Data Workshop Canberra

Using Forecasting forPolicy Development

Mishka Foster

Economic Development Branch

Brisbane City Council

Brisbane’s Policy Challenge – identifying the dimensions of growth

Council land use & infrastructure planning - historically informed by population growth projections

First commissioning of employment & economic activity forecasts in 2004

Inspired significant policy shift

How the NIEIR model works

20262006

(inputs to the model)2026

(key model outputs)

(ABS Statistical Local Area)

ECONOMICDRIVERS

Population & demographics

Land supply and zoning

Current businesses and jobs

GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS

Employment by place of residence

Employment by place of work

Industries

CURRENT FUTURE

Key Findings

1. Employment growth 2X population growth

2. 50% increase in employment a significant challenge for transport accessibility

3. Residential/economic land use conflict

4. Need for CBD re-conceptualisation5. SEQ Regional Plan not addressing

employment/economic needs

Brisbane Employment and Population Growth, 2006 to 2026

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

Po

pu

latio

n a

nd

Em

plo

yme

nt (

'00

0s)

Population Forecast Population Employment Forecast Employment

Sources: ABS, 3218.0 & 6291.0.55.003, NIEIR, PIFU

Population

Employment

2006 2026 Growth (No.) Growth (%)Population 992,176 1,164,095 171,919 17%

Employment 695,375 1,050,025 354,650 51%

Employment growth –

double population growth

Brisbane population growth is on a declining trend

1996-20012001-2006

2006-2011

2011-2016

2016-2021

2021-2026

Brisbane

Rest of SEQ0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Po

pu

lati

on

Gro

wth

Actual and Forecast Population Growth, Rest of SEQ and Brisbane, 1996-2026

SEQ employment growth higher than anticipated

Forecast Employment Growth, SEQ RP 2004 to 2026 and NIEIR 2006 to 2026

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

SEQ RP NIEIR

Em

plo

ymen

t G

row

th (

No

)

As the Region populates, Brisbane’s As the Region populates, Brisbane’s economy expandseconomy expands

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Popualtion Growth Employment Growth

Perc

en

tatg

e o

f G

row

th i

n S

EQ

Brisbane Rest of SEQ

Brisbane LGA(179,915)

Brisbane LGA(368,015)

Rest of SEQ(998,116)

Rest of SEQ(413,108)

Share of Population Growth, 2006 to 2026

Share of Employment Growth, 2006 to 2026

Population growth is forecast to exceed employment growth in most SEQ LGAs

Growth in Employment by Place of Residence and Employment by Place of Work, SEQ SLAs, 2006 to 2031

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Bris

ba

ne

Go

ld C

oa

st

Su

nsh

ine

Co

ast

Ipsw

ich

Lo

ga

n

Mo

reto

n B

ay

Re

dla

nd

To

ow

oo

mb

a

Sce

nic

Rim

Lo

ckye

rV

alle

y

So

me

rse

t

Gro

wth

('0

00

s)

Place of Work Place of Residence

SEQ Regional Plan identified ‘Activity’ Centres, based on

population growth and retailing

Cleveland

Capalaba

Carindale

Upper Mt Gravatt

Indooroopilly

Chermside

Expanded CBD

ATC

Toowong

St Lucia

RichlandsRochedale

Wacol

SpringfieldSpringwood

Brisbane City CouncilBrisbane City Council Forecasts identify Activity Centres, based on economic activityForecasts identify Activity Centres, based on economic activity

BOTH

SEQRP

NIEIR

Acacia Ridge

The workforce is changing

Employment Growth, by Industry, SEQ, 2006 to 2026

-10,000 10,000 30,000 50,000 70,000 90,000 110,000 130,000

Mining

Utilities

Agriculture

Communication

Finance

Wholesale

Hospitality

Manufacturing

Transport

Construction

Personal Services

Government

Cultural & Recreational

Education

Retail

Business Services

Health & Community

AN

ZS

IC1

Employment Growth (No)

Inner Brisbane & Australia TradeCoast are key export growth areas

Australia TradeCoast

CBD and Inner City

Australia TradeCoast

Future Industry

Employment growth centres have different characteristics….

Matrix of Top 3 Industries in High Growth Employment Centres

CBDATC

South BrisbaneBowen Hills

WoolloongabbaChermside

Fortitude ValleyWacol

RochedaleSt Lucia

Acacia RidgeMilton

Ma

nu

fac

turi

ng

Tra

ns

po

rt

Ho

sp

ita

lity

Re

tail

Bu

sin

es

s

Fin

an

ce

Ed

uc

ati

on

Go

ve

rnm

en

t

He

alt

h a

nd

Co

mm

un

ity

Cu

ltu

ral

an

d R

ec

Pe

rso

na

l

Click to edit Master title style

CBD Employment2006 = 140,205 2026 = 215,009

Greater CBD Employment2006 = 220,9362026 = 365,319

West End

Bardon Paddington

East Brisbane

Toowong

Herston Bulimba

Coorparoo

Greenslopes

Kelvin Grove

Ashgrove

Hamilton

Fairfield

Norman Park

Newmarket

Indooroopilly

Hawthorne

Inner Brisbane is growing rapidly

APPLYING THE FORECASTS

1. Identify High Employment Growth SLAs

2. Identify High Employment Growth CCDs within SLAs

3. Aggregate CCDs into minimum of 4 per cluster based on ground truthing

4. Split out Industrial/Commercial Employment Segments

5. Apportion SLA Industrial Structure to Aggregated Cluster

5. Apportion SLA Commercial Structure to Aggregated Cluster

6. Apply GFA Ratios to Employment Structure

7. Identify top 3 job sectors within each cluster

TOP DOWN/BOTTOM UP APPROACH

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH CLUSTERS

NIEIR EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS

Lot Level Information(rates data, city plan)

LAND USE IN INDUSTRIAL CLUSTERS

LAND USE IN COMMERCIAL CLUSTERS

Output Example

CLUSTER Cluster Name EXISTING_LAND_USE CITY_PLAN_ CURRENT_JOB JOBS_IN_2026 DIFFERENCE GFA_REQUIRE Top Sectors

1 Brisbane City

Retail; Other; Education; Office; Tourist accommodation; Attached residential; Community Facilities; District/ Local industry; Showroom/ retail warehousing, commercial offices, residential

Special Purpose Centre Office Park (SP13); Community Use Area Railway (CU7); Park Land (PK); Community Use Area Emergency Services (CU5); Multi Purpose Centre City Centre (MP1); Community Use, Residential, Multi Purpose 3, Light Industry, Special Purpose Centre Entertainment Centre (SP5), Special Purpose Centre Office Park (SP

56400 98799 42399 1059975

Business Services Sport and RecreationGovernment Administration Other services plus private households Printing, Publishing and Recorded MediaHealth Services Community ServicesEducationHousehold Good Retailing

2Milton - Toowong

Business Corridor

Showroom/ retail warehousing; office; other; Attached residential; vacant; Detached residential

Low-Medium Density Residential (LMR); Medium Density Residential (MR); Multi Purpose Centre Major Centre (MP2); Community Use Area Railway (CU7); Community Use Area Railway (SR); Community Use Area Utility Services (CU8); High Density Residential (HR)

8329 13293 4964 99280

Business ServicesCommunity ServicesMachinery WholesalingHealth ServicesBusiness ServicesEducation

3 South Brisbane

Retail; Community Facilities; Park; Office; District/ Local industry; Attached residential; Other; Tourist accommodation;

Community Use Area Education Purposes CU4); Community Use Area Railway (CU7); Low-Medium Density Residential (LMR); Special Purpose Centre Major Hospital and Medical Facility (SP1); Multi Purpose Centre Suburban Centre (MP3); Character Residential (CR)

15791 51804 36013 720260

Government AdministrationBusiness ServicesHealth ServicesAccommodation and RestaurantsHousehold Good RetailingOther services plus private households

4 West End

Vacant; District/ Local industry; Showroom/ retail warehousing; Attached residential; Retail; Detached residential; Tourist accommodation;

Park Land (PK); Special Purpose Centre Mixed Industry and Business (SP12); Light Industry (LI); Low-Medium Density Residential (LMR); Multi Purpose Centre Suburban Centre (MP3)

5289 6551 1262 25240

Libraries, Museums and the ArtsEducation Personal ServicesBusiness ServicesProperty ServicesFinance

5 Woolloongabba

Other; Education; Health; Showroom/ retail warehousing; Vacant; Community Facilities; Detached residential; Attached residential; Residential - Other; Retail; Tourist accommodation;

Community Use Area Education Purposes (CU4); Special Purpose Centre Major Hospital and Medical Facility (SP1); Multi Purpose Centre Suburban Centre (MP3); Low-Medium Density Residential (LMR); Community Use Area Railway (CU7)

8568 17693 10387 182500

Health ServicesBusiness ServicesSport and RecreationBusiness ServicesFinanceCommunication ServicesHousehold Good RetailingAccommodation and RestaurantsPersonal Services

Applying The Forecasts

Regional land use planning•CityPlan•SEQ Regional Plan Review

Local area planning•Neighbourhood Plans, Urban

Renewal, ULDA Transport Planning Major Infrastructure Assessment

Transport infrastructure activates economic drivers

Skilled labour pool relevant to business needs

Land availability and cost Transport access for workers and

businesses

Congestion is the most important infrastructure issue impacting on SEQ’s future economic success.

Travel times are a key driver

Travel times determine the accessibility of population to jobs, schools, shops, etc. and employers to workers.

Model assumptions based on behaviour patterns in other comparable cities:

• 45 minute catchment for labour availability

• 15 minute catchment for retail expenditure at shopping centres

Loss in Employment by Place of Residence in 2026Resulting from a 5 Minute Increase in Commuting Time

-20,135

-9,401

-4,585-11,686

-11,924-13,942

-8,029-5,635 -10,546

-32,227

-6,771

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

Re

dla

nd

Be

au

de

sert

Re

dcl

iffe

Ca

bo

oltu

re

Pin

e R

ive

rs

Ipsw

ich

Lo

ga

n

We

ste

rn (

inc.

To

ow

oo

mb

a)

Su

nsh

ine

Co

ast

Bris

ba

ne

Go

ld C

oa

st

Pe

rce

nta

ge

De

cre

ase

(%

)

• Differential impact across SEQ – Beaudesert and LGAs around Brisbane worst affected.

• Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane and Western Councils least affected.

A 5 min increase in travel times creates a labour accessibility constraint on business growth and results in

an overall loss of 135,000 jobs in SEQ by 2026

Addressing the economic imperatives

The forecasts demonstrate the potential to increase the economic performance of SEQ as a whole region.

Future success driven by productivity and competitiveness, not population.

Inter-connectedness of local regional economies increases economic efficiency and productivity

Priority issues

Securing land for business growth in the forecast growth locations will deliver strongest economic outcomes for the whole community

Effective transport infrastructure connecting employment locations will maximise efficiency, productivity and employment

Financial mechanisms needed to bring forward investment.