41
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Page 1: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Company Initiation

City Developments Limited

24 Oct 16, 8.15am/11.15am Morning Call/Webinar

Page 2: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

2

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (“PSPL”) has no reason to

believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this

presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or

warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any

such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the

information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be

liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made

available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.

This presentation is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or

particular needs of any particular person.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment

objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products.

Page 3: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

3

“ACCUMULATE” rating, TP: S$9.98, Last close: S$8.77

52-week range: S$6.55 – S$9.24

Market Cap: S$8bn

Initiating coverage

Page 4: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

4

CDL Gross Asset Value by Segment

SG Residential, 37%

Overseas Residential, 16%SG Hotels, 5%

SG Office, 19%

SG Retail, 6%

Others (SG), 1%

Overseas Commercial, 4%

Millenium and Copthorne (65% stake), 11%

City e-Solutions (53% stake), 1%

Source: Company, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

Page 5: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Singapore Property Development

Page 6: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

6

CDL to benefit amid thinning supply of new CCR properties

3-year time gap no land sales in CCR

Unsold units in CCR made up 40.7% of CDL’s development properties

CCR Market Segment

Source: REALIS, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09 3Q10 3Q11 3Q12 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15

Unsold units in CCR (RHS) CCR/RCR (LHS) CCR/OCR (LHS)

Ratio of CCR properties to RCR and OCR and remaining unsold units in CCR

Development Project Total Units Unsold Units Sold Units

St Regis Residences 173 12 161

The Oceanfront @ Sentosa Cove 264 1 263

One Shenton 341 14 327

Cliveden@Grange^ 110 66 44

UP@Robertson Quay 70 13 57

South Beach Residences* 190 190 0

New Futura* 124 124 0

Gramercy Park 174 137 37

Echelon 508 2 506

The Venue Residences^^ 266 115 151

Forest Woods 519 179 340

Commonwealth Towers 845 416 429

Bartley Ridge 868 1 867

D'Nest 912 12 900

Coco Palms 944 88 856

Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938

The Brownstone 638 139 499

The Criterion 505 354 151

Total (Include EC) 7,451 1,863 5,588

* - Development is unlaunched

^^ - 150 units are unlaunched

EC

Source: Company Data, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

^ - 44 units are owned under a special purpose vehicle and leased out

CCR

OCR

RCR

CDL’s portfolio of unsold units as at 2Q16

Page 7: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

7

…D9 and D10 in focus

ASP of new developments in D9, 10 and 11 fell an average of 20% in last 5

years

iLiv@Grange sold at S$1,623 PSF, S$307 PSF losses

Gramercy Park (22% sold), Cliveden@Grange (37% sold including leased units)

and New Futura (yet to be launched)

Near term price pressure in CCR…

Images of Gramercy Park, Cliveden@Grange and New Futura, Source: Company Website

Page 8: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

8

3rd Tranche of Profit Participation Security (PPS) launched on 21 October 2016

Injected Nouvel 18 development project into 3rd PPS for a price of S$977.6 mn

Investors get a 5% yield per annum in return

The result?

1. Fetched a price of S$2,750 PSF for a c.22% PBT margin

2. Avoid QC extension charge of S$37.2 mn in Nov-16

3. Expanded fund management platform to S$3.5 bn (Target FY18: S$5 bn)

Timely launch of 3rd PPS

Images of Nouvel 18, a 174-unit luxury development located at Ardmore Park, Source: www.nouvel18.com

Page 9: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

9

7 development projects have more than 10 % unsold units

No QC or ABSD due for the 2016; next is Sep-17

Strong balance sheet (20% net gearing) - not pressed for time to clear

these units

Apart from Commonwealth Towers and The Venue Residences, in good

stead to clear inventory of unsold units

No need to perform fire sale

Projects with >10% unsold units, impacted by upcoming QC extension charges

Project Market segment Unsold units (%) Land cost (S$'mn) Estimated QC fee (S$'mn) QC/sqft QC deadline

Gramercy Park CCR 79 383 24 73 May-18

New Futura (Unlaunched) CCR 100 287 23 92 Nov-18 (est)

Source: Company Data, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

Projects with >10% unsold units, impacted by upcoming clawback of ABSD

Project Market segment Unsold units (%) Land cost (S$'mn) Estimated ABSD (S$'mn) ABSD/sqft ABSD deadline

The Venue Residences RCR 43 245 31 233 Sep-17

Commonwealth Towers RCR 49 563 70 224 Dec-17

The Criterion [EC] OCR 70 179 22 58 May-18

The Brownstone [EC] OCR 22 226 28 197 Jan-19

Forest Woods RCR 35 321 40 253 Nov-20

Source: Company Data, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

Page 10: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

10

Balance sheet has S$3.3 bn cash and a net gearing of 26% vs. historical average

of 40%

Net gearing of 20% (including fair value gains) is lower than the industry average of

26%

Large cash pile and low gearing to pick up value accretive investments when

opportunities surface

Strength in balance sheet

CDL’s historical net gearing

0.40 X

0.00 X

0.10 X

0.20 X

0.30 X

0.40 X

0.50 X

0.60 X

0.70 X

0.80 X

0.90 X

3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Company Data, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

Page 11: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

11

CDL Launched Forest Woods, 519-unit RCR development in Serangoon, on 15

October 2016

Sold 66 % of the project within the first weekend

Smaller units (<1,000 sqft) accounted for 60% of total sales volume

Unlike The Venue Residences, where more than half of the development remained

unsold (including 44% of unlaunched units)

Smaller sized units in Forest Woods is most likely behind the buoyancy in sales

Strong take up at Forest Woods

Images of Forest Woods, Source: Company Website

Page 12: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

12

Commonwealth Towers (416 / 845 units unsold)

Plenty of competition in the Queenstown and Potong Pasir area

Queen’s Peak, a new project which add another 736 units to the current available units within the

area.

Healthy YTD average price of S$1,750 PSF, higher than our estimated breakeven cost

Need to clear 32 units per month till ABSD remission clawback on Dec-17; YTD sales volume is

36 units

Price cuts expected at Commonwealth Towers and The Venue Residences

Price transactions at Commonwealth Towers (S$'PSF)

Source: REALIS, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

1,748

1,400

1,300

1,350

1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

1,750

1,800

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16

Average monthly transacted price Average YTD transacted price Breakeven cost

Page 13: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

13

The Venue Residences (115 / 266 units unsold )

Poiz Residences, a nearby development still has 166 units unsold. + recent en-bloc transaction

at Raintree Residences add another 750 units

Purchase price of units in The Venue Residences is larger than Poiz Residences due to larger-

sized units

Land cost of S$710 PSF at The Venue Residences is the lowest among the three projects (Poiz

Residences: S$775 PSF, Raintree Residences: S$797 PSF)

Price cuts expected at Commonwealth Towers and The Venue Residences

Source: REALIS, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

1,190

1,392

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

1500

Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16

Average monthly transacted price Average YTD transacted price Breakeven cost

Price transactions at The Venue Residences (S$'PSF)

Page 14: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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14

No catalyst for a market recovery until unwinding of cooling measures

Property prices retraced by 10 % from a high in 2013

Further price gains would reduce affordability as prices of private propertieshave grown by c.70% in the past 10 years while median wage growth was up60%

Premature for the Singapore Government to unwind the existing propertycooling measures

Committed to moderate growth and not create hard landing

Developers with strong balance sheet like CDL will weather this period ofslowness and emerge largely unscathed

Page 15: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

Singapore Investment Properties

Segment

Page 16: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

16

Solid execution for Group’s office portfolio

Rental Properties contributed 21.3% of total profit before taxes and is the

second largest contributor of profits

Office properties formed bulk of the portfolio’s value (72.6%)

Group’s portfolio of offices continues to enjoy healthy occupancy of 97.4%

versus the national average of 90.9% as at 2Q16 despite the softness in

demand for office space

We expect negative rental growth in the next 2 years

Page 17: City Developments Limited - StocksBNB€¦ · Bartley Ridge 868 1 867 D'Nest 912 12 900 Coco Palms 944 88 856 Total (Exclude EC) 6,308 1,370 4,938 The Brownstone 638 139 499 The Criterion

Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (A member of PhillipCapital) Co. Reg. No. 197501035Z © PhillipCapital 2016. All Rights Reserved. For internal circulation only.

17

South Beach on track to be fully completed by 4Q16

South Beach, a mixed development consisting of a hotel, office, retail space

and 190 residential units

Office and retail space are 99% and >76 % leased respectively

~50 % of retail space has already been opened to the public.

We will be monitoring the hotel segment of the mixed development after it has

been rebranded to The JW Marriott Hotel Singapore South Beach.

Images of South Beach, Source: Company Website

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Hospitality Segment

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19

65% stake in Millennium and Copthorne (Listed in London)

Asset-heavy/Capital Intensive Business Model

Millennium and Copthorne

% of self-owned hotels amongst major international hotel chains

67%

33%

6%3% 2% 1% 0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

M&C Accor Hyatt Hilton Starwoods Marriott IHG

Source: Company Annual Reports, Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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20

Investor Concerns over asset-heavy business model

Asset-light hotel operators (eg. InterContinental) outperformed

Millennium and Copthorne

Price performance of major international hotel chains vs M&C since post GFC (2010 to present)

39

160

71

64

181

329

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Millennium & Copthorne Hotels PLC Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide LLC

Accor SA Hyatt Hotels Corp

Marriott International Inc/MD InterContinental Hotels Group PLC

Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

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21

Current P/NAV of 0.56 Below 10-year historical mean of 0.7

Singapore Hospitality S-REITs trade from 0.66-0.92x

Reversion to mean trading valuations OR Monetisation strategies could be

positive to CDL (Eg CDL HT, First Sponsor)

Low Price to NAV valuations

M&C Historical Price to NAV chart

0.56

0.7

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

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22

London and Singapore are main markets

Improving outlook for both segments from Year-To-Date data

Tourism Outlook

Breakdown of M&C’s 126 hotels by geographic regions

32

48

19

27

Asia

Europe

US

Australasia

Source: Company, Phillip Securities Research

(Singapore)

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23

London welcomed a record 18.5m international visitors in 2015 (up 6.8% y-o-y)

2016 is slower, but could be different post BREXIT. July saw first positive growth

since March

London Tourism

London International Tourist Arrivals and Total Spending

£0

£2,000

£4,000

£6,000

£8,000

£10,000

£12,000

£14,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Total Spending (£m) (RHS) Total International Visitors (000s)

Source: VisitBritain.org, Office for National Statistics, Phillip

Securities Research (Singapore)

-3.3%

2.9%

-5.9%

-0.5%

-7.2%

-8.8%

2.3%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

Source: UK Office for National Statistics, Phillip Securities Research

(Singapore)

BREXIT

2016 UK International Tourists Total Receipts Y-o-Y change

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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24

GBP has depreciated c.14% against the USD to c.1.27 since Brexit in June

Bloomberg Composite forecast for GBP/USD is c.1.32 going forward to 2017/2018.

Continued weakness in GBP could help tourism (See Japan Example)

Depreciation of GBP could help

USD/JPY – Depreciation of the yen since 2012…

2016 UK International Tourists Total Receipts Y-o-Y change

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

Yen started depreciating following announcements of

loose monetary policies by BOJ -27.8%

34.4%

24.0%29.4%

47.1%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

Strong growth in tourism bouyed by weak yen and

tourists' increased spending power

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Disclaimer: The information contained in this document is intended only for use during the presentation and should not be disseminated or distributed to parties outside the presentation. Phillip Securities accepts no liability whatsoever with respect to the use of this document or its contents.

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25

Improvements in data for 2016 year to date

Tourist arrivals grew 11.8% January-July 2016 (2014: -3%, 2015: 0.9%)

Total Room Revenue average growth 3.8% ytd (2015: 0.9%)

Impact of low oil prices, Airbnb etc

Singapore Tourism

Singapore 2016 Tourist Arrival Numbers and Total Room Revenue Y-o-Y change

12.73% 12.30%

16.85%

15.28%

10.85%

7.16%6.74%

2.55%

11.25%

0.45%

9.49%

3.25%

-6.92%

6.29%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

2016

Tourist Arrivals Total Room Revenue

Source: CEIC, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

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Overseas Residential Properties

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27

International growth and overseas diversification strategy will start reaping rewards

from 2016-2018

Substantial sales and developments complete during this period

China: Suzhou Industrial Park project already profitable, Shanghai Villas in demand

UK: Hanover House Sales expected to fully complete by 2H16

Overseas Residential Projects

Launched overseas residential projects under CDL

Projects LaunchedCity Total Units Total Sold % Sold

Total Estimated

Saleable Area (Sq ft)

Estimated

Completion

Australia

Ivy and Eve Brisbane 472 423 90 348,678 1H2018

China

Hong Leong City Center (Phase 1) Suzhou 1374 945 69 1,376,570 4Q2016

Hongqiao Royal Lake Shanghai 85 18 21 385,394 Completed

UK

Hanover House (Reading) London 82 82 100 29,893 Completed

Source: Company, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

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28

China: Substantial completions in 2017. Shanghai, Suzhou, and Chongqing saw

median property prices increase 76.5%, 42% and 5.1% respectively since 2010

UK: Group remains confident of high end residential segment in London.

Overseas Residential Projects

Yet to be launched overseas residential projects under CDL – A series of completions from 2017-2019 to boost revenue

ProjectCity Total Units

Total Estimated

Saleable Area (Sq ft)

Estimated

Completion

China

Hong Leong City Center (Phase 2) Suzhou 430 448,844 4Q2017

Eling Residences Chongqing 126 354,814 2Q2017

Huang Huayuan Chongqing TBC 1,304,062 TBC

UK

Belgravia London 6 12,393 1Q2017

Knightsbridge London 3 5,193 1Q2017

Chelsea London 9 16,143 2018

Teddington London 239 240,000 2018/2019

Knightsbridge (Pavilion Road) London TBC 135,000 TBC

Stag Brewery, Mortlake London TBC 1,000,000 TBC

Japan

Shirokane Tokyo TBC 180,995 TBC

Source: Company, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

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29

Upside

•Unwinding of property cooling measures with ABSD and 60% TDSR in focus

•Broadening of immigration policy

•Depreciation in the S$ which could boost inbound tourism to Singapore

Downside

•A further slowdown in Singapore’s Real Estate sector

•Unforeseen circumstances (e.g. terrorism and pandemic) that are adverse to the Hospitality

subsector

Risks to our views

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30

Valuation Methodology

Investment properties: By applying appropriate market cap rates on net operating income

Development properties: Valued at Net Present Value of their after tax cash flow less all

associated costs RNAV Table

Segment Location Amount (S$'m) Per share (S$)

Residential SG 5,336 5.87

Overseas 2,356 2.59

Hotels SG 733 0.81

Office SG 2,698 2.97

Retail SG 927 1.02

Others SG 83 0.09

Commercial Overseas 550 0.60

Add: Market Value of stakes in Listed Entities

Millenium and Copthorne (65% stake) 1,569 1.73

City e-Solutions (53% stake) 138 0.15Total GAV 14,390 15.83

Add cash: 3,300 3.63

Less debt: 6351 6.98

RNAV: 11,339 12.47

No. of shares ('m) 909

Discount to RNAV (%) 20

Target Price 9.98

Source: Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

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31

Historical Price to NAV

Trading at close to 2009 trough P/NAV Valuations

Our use of 20% discount to RNAV is conservative and lower than historical mean

1.22

0.97 0.93

0.72

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16

Price to NAV Mean +/-1SD +/-1SD +/-2SD +/-2SD

Source: Bloomberg, Phillip Securities Research (Singapore)

CDL Historical Price to NAV

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32

Peer comparison

Name Mkt Cap (SGD mn)

Last

Price

(SGD) P/E ROE ROA

Dividend

Yield P/B Debt/Assets

CITY DEVELOPMENTS LTD 7,975 8.77 10.7 6.2 3.8 1.8 0.90 31.9

CAPITALAND LTD 13,221 3.12 14.0 4.2 2.1 2.9 0.79 33.9

GLOBAL LOGISTIC PROPERTIES 8,530 1.82 10.3 -0.1 3.4 3.3 0.72 21.8

UOL GROUP LTD 4,594 5.7 14.6 4.4 2.7 2.6 0.58 23.5

FRASERS CENTREPOINT LTD 4,393 1.515 7.4 7.6 2.6 5.7 0.69 41.2

UNITED INDUSTRIAL CORP LTD 3,874 2.73 12.4 5.2 3.7 1.1 0.63 16.0

YANLORD LAND GROUP LTD 2,700 1.39 7.0 5.8 2.3 1.1 0.64 21.1

GUOCOLAND LTD 2,390 2.02 3.5 4.0 7.4 2.5 0.68 48.4

WHEELOCK PROPERTIES (S) 1,795 1.5 31.6 1.9 1.5 4.0 0.60 12.9

HO BEE LAND LTD 1,419 2.13 5.2 10.2 6.8 3.3 0.52 33.5

OXLEY HOLDINGS LTD 1,360 0.465 6.6 32.8 4.8 4.4 1.74 55.6

WING TAI HOLDINGS LTD 1,323 1.71 187.9 0.2 0.1 1.8 0.42 27.7

BUKIT SEMBAWANG ESTATES 1,168 4.51 13.1 6.8 6.1 7.3 0.89 0.0

SIM LIAN GROUP LTD 1,086 1.08 15.8 5.9 4.0 6.7 0.94 17.1

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Singapore Exchange Limited

Seasonally lower costs provide respite

Jeremy Teong

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

24 October 2016

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34

Securities Trading and Clearing dragged down by low SDAV

SDAV $0.99bn ( 19% y-o-y): primary listing market cap 3% y-o-y, velocity y-o-y to 36% from

46% and 14th July shutdown

Issuer Services and Market Data & Connectivity stable

Supported EC World REIT and China Jinjiang Env Holding listings, bonds listings and colocation

services

Do not expect margin accretion from cost savings

FY16 Opex S$409mn, PSR’s FY17e Opex before 1Q17 results was S$429mn, Mgmt’s guidance on

FY17e Opex is S$420mn to S$430mn.

Near term catalyst

RMB initiatives to engage companies from Chongqing, Suzhou and Tianjin

Singapore Exchange Limited(Maintain Accumulate. Lower TP:S$7.69, previously S$7.99. Last:S$7.21)

Results at a glance

(SGD mn) 1Q17 1Q16 y-o-y 4Q16 q-o-q Comments

Securi ties 47.1 55.9 -16% 47.6 -1%Average clearing fee unchanged at 2.89bps y-o-

y. SDAV decreased 19% y-o-y

Derivatives 70.8 90.9 -22% 74.5 -5% Decl ine in China A50 and Nikkei 225 volumes

Others 72.9 72.8 0% 76.0 -4% Supported by IPO and Bond Lis tings and growth

in Colocation Services

Total Revenue 190.8 219.6 -13% 198.1 -4%

Opex 93.7 102.3 -8% 106.4 -12%Seasonal ly lower Dep. Costs , lower marketing

costs and lower Staff Variable Bonus

Net Income 83.1 99.3 -16% 76.8 8%

Source: Company, Phill ip Securities Research (Singapore)

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Keppel DC REIT

Preferential Offering to fund acquisition of

Keppel DC Singapore 3

Richard Leow

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

24 October 2016

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36

High portfolio occupancy (92.3%→92.7%), but at the expense of negative

reversions

Higher occupancy at KDC SGP 1 (f.k.a. S25): 85.7%→87.6%

Client expanding by 6,800 sq ft in two phases (half in 2HFY16, half in

2HFY17)

100% occupancy maintained at KDC SGP 2 (f.k.a. T25), with a major

client renewing for more than five years, thus extending WALE to 4.2

years from 1.2 years, but…

-8% reversion, estimate client occupies c.75% of the data centre

Keppel DC REIT(Accumulate, TP:$1.26, FY16e DPU: 7.00 cents (5.7%), Last:S$1.18)Results at a glance

(SGD mn) 3Q16 3Q15 yoy (%) Comments

Gross revenue 22.66 25.74 (12.0) Client at Dublin 1 downsized in 1Q16, one-off non-csah downward adjustment at

Almere, drop in variable income at Singapore Properties, depreciation of GBP and

MYR against SGD

Net property income 22.70 21.37 6.2 Lower property operating expenses

Distributable income 16.78 14.48 15.9 Higher unreal ised foreign exchange gains , lower other expenses and

higher finance income

DPU (cents) 1.90 1.64 15.9 Includes one-off distributable income arising from net property tax refund

DPU, adj. (cents) 1.67 1.64 1.8 Adjusted for one-off refund of 0.23 cents

Source: Company , Phi l l ip Securi ties Research (Singapore)

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37

Acquisition of 90% interest in Keppel DC Singapore 3 (KDC SGP 3, f.k.a.

T27), targeted for December

Requires Unitholder approval at EGM

Fully-committed to two clients

Stability of income: SGD-denominated and long WALE of 5.7 years

274-for-1,000 PO to raise c.S$279.5M, increasing Unitholder base by 27%

S$208.6M: acquire 90% interest in KDC SGP 3

S$33.4M: repay existing short-term debt associated with acquisition of IC2

S$33.3M: repay loans, capex and/or future acquisitions

S$4.2M: fees and expenses incurred in connection with PO

Keppel DC REIT(Accumulate, TP:$1.26, FY16e DPU: 7.00 cents (5.7%), Last:S$1.18)

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Cache Logistics Trust

Takes a hit from Schenker Megahub

Richard Leow

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

24 October 2016

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39

No capital distribution component this quarter; and do not expect it going

forward

S$2.98mn balance from divestment of Kim Heng Warehouse, to be used

for capex

51 Alps Avenue (Schenker Megahub) fair value adjusted downwards by 31%

Revalued downwards by S$36.1mn from S$116.8mn to S$80.7mn

Prospects for opportunistic acquisition dimmed, expect downside to

organic DPU

Aggregate leverage: 39.8%→41.2%, recycle capital and pare down debt

Cache Logistics Trust(Reduce, TP:$0.81, FY16e DPU: 7.58 cents (8.6%), Last:$0.88)Results at a glance

(SGD mn) 3Q16 3Q15 yoy (%) Comments

Gross revenue 28.05 23.14 21.2 Contributions from six Australian properties acquired in 1Q15 and 4Q15, and DHL

Supply Chain Advanced Regional Centre (DSC ARC), offset by lower income from

Schenker Megahub

Net property income 22.07 18.78 17.5 Higher property related expenses due to convers ions to multi -tenanted

leases

Distributable income 16.58 16.81 (1.3) 3Q15 includes S$1.51mn capita l dis tribution

DPU (cents) 1.847 2.140 (13.7) 14.3% larger unit base - 897.8mn in 3Q16 vs. 785.6mn in 3Q15

DPU, adj. (cents) 1.847 1.948 (5.2) Adjusting for partial capital distribution of 0.192 cents from Kim Heng Warehouse in

3Q15

Source: Company, Phi l l ip Securi ties Research (Singapore)

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40

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities Pte Ltd (“PSPL”) has no reason to

believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this

presentation are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. PSPL has not verified this information and no representation or

warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any

such information or Research contained in this presentation is subject to change, and PSPL shall not have any responsibility to maintain the

information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will PSPL be

liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made

available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages.

This presentation is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or

particular needs of any particular person.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment

objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to invest in such products.

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41

Analysts Pei Sai Teng, Macro

Jeremy Ng, Technical Analysis

Jeremy Teong, Banking & Finance

Soh Lin Sin, Consumer | Healthcare

Richard Leow, Transport | REITs (Industrial)

Dehong Tan, REITs (Commercial, Retail, Healthcare) | Property

Peter Ng, Property | Infrastructure

Ho Kang Wei, US Equity

Chen Guangzhi, Oil and Gas | Energy

By Phillip Securities ResearchMohamed Amiruddin, Operations Exec

Ask Questions!

Archived Webinar videos can be accessed at

https://www.poems.com.sg/education/webinars/

41