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Cities of Tomorrow Workshop 1 Brussels 28-29 June 2010
Social and demographic changes and their spatial effects – the Czech
experience
Karel MaierCzech Technical University in Prague
WD-07-07-4 Koncepce územního plánování a disparity v území (ČVUT Praha)WD-40-07-1 POLYREG – Podpora polycentrického regionálního rozvoje (MU Brno)
Patterns of spatial change from 1990 onwards spatial change driven by individual choices in weak planning environment
big RELATIVE change + big SPEED of the change easy to prove by empirical (quantitative) research – demographic statistics, census, planning permissions
new rich, upper-middlemigrants from
abroad
lower middle
CITY
eld
erl
y
blu
e &
pin
k co
llars
posh
gen
trifi
ers
rura
l „g
rass
roots
“
SUBURBAN BELT
RESIDENTIAL sprawl / suburbanization spatial social segregation
warehousing, logistics, assembling plants
retailnational & multinational headquarters
CITY
HIGHW
AY
CROSSIN
GS
MAJORHIGHWAYCORRIDORS
NON-RESIDENTIAL re-urbanization
+ ribbon sprawl spatial sectoral segregation
offices
wh
ite-co
llar &
serv
ices jo
bs
SMEs
RICHRICH
MIDDLE CLASS
eld
erly
mig
ran
ts
MIDDLE CLASS
eld
erly
POORPOOR
qualitative spatial change
size of the change? significance of the change? less empirical (quantitative) evidence hypotheses, case studies
towards1990 2020?central posh enclaves
suburban satellites gated suburban enclaves
compact city & garden suburbs
housing estates dilapidated exclusion
enclaves
RICH
IN-BETWEENS? MIDDLE CLASS?
POOR
emerging new pattern of functional city region
centre CBD
compact city
high-income locality
housing estates„new towns“
rural village
rural village encroachedby new residences
brownfields, deprived neighbourhoods
suburban shopping / servicing centre
Population ageing: selective problem of places on local scale
Czech Republic
big housing estates in selected Czech cities
(Praha, Plzeň, České Budějovice,
Hradec Králové, Pardubice)
source: Czech Statistical Office
Impact of the changes
increased life expectation
demographic change • delayed marriages and births
• low birth rates
ageing population population decline
migration• from outside EU • inside EU from outside CZ• inside CZ
increased spatial disparities
varied prosperity • metropolitan area of Prague • prosperous regional centres • rural country • old industrial parts
Issues, challenges and their management
newly emerged ISSUES
• control and safety • released control
increased unsafety • personal • property privatisation of
safety control • real emergence X
perception of crime risk
• climate hazards • floods
• accessibility • services• jobs
upcoming CHALLENGES
• ageing population • decreasing social
cohesion • peak oil?
ARENA FOR MANAGEMENT OF THE CHANGES
• poorly pronounced public interest
• national strategies & frameworks follow EU guidance
• weak role of regional governance
local decisions under control of local power groups and developers
• development-oriented public opinion
• civic groups treated as problem-makers X NIMBY
DIVERSIFIED IMPACT on particular
• regions• cities • neighbourhoods
• SOCIAL
GROUPS
WINNERS X LOSERS
WHICH GAME? • win – win? • zero sum? • lose – lose?
Recommendations
governance • new supra-municipal tier of
governance management of urban
sprawl / suburbanization co-ordinated development /
provision of services and facilities
co-ordinated development of transportation infrastructure
planning • top-down
o inward-oriented development policy
o internalisation of service costs
o enforcement of standards for new residential design
– passable neighbourhoods – small-grained
homogeneous units – compact cities – small-distance cities
• „soft“o campaign for better
awareness of long-term impact of social fragmentation
– Sustainable Cities
