Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO 25-26 OCT [email protected] The Role of Technology in Cities of the Future

25-26 OCT 2010 [email protected] of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO

The Role of Technology in Cities of the Future


City Ranking Systems: What’s on our mind?

Technology Pull: Visions of Cities and Urban Developers

Technology Push: Visions of Technology Companies

Challenges: Waste … Energy … Transport … Ageing …

Missing Links and Recommendations: …

A Brief Overview

‘Elegant Ideas’ confront

‘Messy Real World Complexity’


City Ranking Systems: What’s on our mind?

New Geography (Joel Kotkin): Ranking of US cities based on a weighted average of medium and ling term employment growth trends. discusses role of tele-cities and exurbs …

Fast Company Magazine: A marketing, design and technology magazine that undertakes an annual surveys based on interviews and ‘user’ perceptions of the most <insert favorite theme> cities for that year. The exact criteria vary from year to year. It is increasingly global in scope. The most recent one includes candidates from the US and Canada, Latin America, Europe and Asia and Africa. There is a focus on dynamism, creativity and sustainability … the loose and unscientific format provides scope for recognizing ‘surprises’ or current and emerging trends …

The Milken Institute: This has carried out a variety of rankings over the years, one based on the role of Technology Parks and Science Parks in the growth of the city, and more recently a series on the growth of Metropolitan regions which is based on 5 year performance in terms of • Job creation, • Wage levels and • Technology intensity of industrial activity …

The results from 2010 survey are interesting in that of the 300 or so US metro areas included in the survey, the ‘usual suspects’ don’t rate very highly … 3 of top 5, 5 of the top 10, and 11 of the top 20 are in Texas!











Technology Pull: Visions of Cities and Urban Developers

•The “Venus Project” of Jacques Fresco … 1995, The Future by Design, Zeitgeist Movement …• The “Archologies” of Paolo Soleri … “Cities in the Image of Man” … Cosanti, Arcosanti … • The “Archibiotics” of Vincent Callebaut … (LillyPad …)• The “Charter Cities” of Paul Romer …• The “Aerotropolis”of J. D. Kasarda and Greg Lindsey … “They way we’ll live next” …• Etc

• Ab-initio green city projects … Dongtang+, Masdar+, KAEC+…• Existing city visions … “Stockholm 2030”, the “Innovation City” vision for Boston …• More specific “city systems” … Retirement Communities … i.e. Sun-City Arizona …

• The “Mega Float” project in Japan …• The “Freedom Ship” of … •The “Floating Houses” of the Netherlands … (SE Asia, Peru …)•The “Vertical Gardens” of Patrick Blanc … • The “Vertical Farms” of Dickson Despommier …• Preparation for off-world living The Eden Project, Biosphere 2, the ISS …• The Ansari X-Prize, the Google X-Prize … the Isle of Man …• The Vijay Govindarajan challenge … how to build a $700 house … The Acumen Fund …






KAEC …



The Dynamic Tower … to be built in Dubai


The “Bionic Tower’ … to be built in Shanghai (?)


To be built in Korea … ?


The “dragon-fly” … a metabolic farm for urban agriculture














The “Vertical Gardens”

of

Patrick Blanc

Epiphany: 2,500+ of the 8,000+ plant species in Malaysia don’t need soil to grow … they only need water with the right kind of nutrients and some kind of physical support …

His vertical gardens:• Grow inside or outside,• In artificial or natural light,• Capture carbon,• Clean the air, • Cool buildings in summer, • Warm them in winter …



ARCHIBIOTICs of Vincent Callibaut



“City Garden Farms” … in Portland Oregon, consists of 12 back-yards …

NMYC has more than 600 small farms (large vegetable gardens) … Victory gardens … Whitehouse garden … urban allotments … unused land … gardens … borders … parks … bag-gardens …. Window sills and verandas … …

Farms produce vegetable and fruit as well as poultry, eggs and tilapia … also mushrooms, mealworms and other insects, pets, algae etc … supplied to small shops, homes, drop-off points, restaurants and sandwich bars, office kitchens and schools … cellars … shared greenhouses … private … government owned infrastructure …

The hidden cost of food is transport …

Logistics, storage and processing services …

Leasing or using someone else’s land … in exchange for money, produce or the satisfaction … a sense of community involvement …

Food delivery and life-style support services …

A 1 acre urban farm can produce of the order of 250,000 USD per year

Despommier claims that a 21 story urban farm can produce as much as 288 acres of land … building it would cost 84M Euros…

Government could encourage … support … sourcing produce from urban farms for own cafeterias … allow income from small plots tax free … (renting …)


Vertical farms will allow us to:Grow food 24 hours a day, 365 days a year Protect crops from unpredictable and harmful weather Re-use water collected from the indoor environment Provide jobs for local residents Eliminate use of pesticides, fertilizers, or herbicides Drastically reduce dependence on fossil fuels Prevent crop loss due to disease or pests Stop agricultural runoff http://www.verticalfarm.com/blog

Meanwhile, Dickson Despommier, a public-health professor at Columbia University, is pushing a way to get population centers to produce a lot more of the food they consume. His Vertical Farm Project envisions hydroponic skyscrapers that would be as productive as 588 acres (238 hectares) of land. A 21-story farm is expected to cost about $84 million to build. That's a lot of cabbage to grow some lettuce, which is perhaps why the first tower in the works is in Las Vegas.


Biosphere II … Houston we have a problem (with CO2 and O2)!






SECURITY … (Policing +)

“War Zone Amsterdam Safe Haven” … 2011


TRANSPORT …


The DIMENSIONS of Transport …

Modes of Transport• Trains, Buses and Trams• Taxis• Boats• Scooters and Segways• Bikes and “the No. 11” (walking)• Skateboards and roller-blades …• Robots …• Logistic services – pick-ups, trailers, vans, trucks, lorries• Emergency services – fire, police and ambulance• Infrastructure for parking and storage• Infrastructure fueling, cleaning, repairs and maintenance• Infrastructure for sale and resale, recovery and recycling

Infrastructure• Roads, rails, bridges, tunnels, footpaths and parks• Parking and storage (impact of car sharing and public bikes …)• Fueling, cleaning, repairs and maintenance• Retail infrastructure for sale, resale, recovery and recycling

Users of the Transport System• Children• Animals• Parents• Workers• Businesses• Retirees• Visitors

Occasions of Use• Day-time• Night-time• Weekends• Holidays• Summer• Winter


Technologies, Business Models and Innovation Strategies …

In many ways a SUBSTITUTION game

Substitute:• Private transport with public transport …• Cars, buses and trams with cycling or walking …• Owning with sharing, leasing, hiring …• Fossil fuels with bio-diesel, bio-ethanol, electricity, H2, fuel cells, solar power … • Motors with hybrids … and tanks with batteries …• Battery recharging with battery swapping (“Better Place” by Shay Agasi)…• Faster + longer-distance with slower + shorter distance …• Heavy with light … single- and two-person vehicles, short-commute vehicles …• Steel with composites, new materials and designs …• Four wheels with two wheels or no wheels …• Commuting with telecommuting … medicine with telemedicine …• Long commutes with short commutes … (business-hubs and shared workspaces …)• Bike stands with free-standing bikes … (GPS technologies … “SoBi” of New York … 30%)• Products with services (the P&G Mr. Clean car-wash …)• Drivers with robots … (that work through the night to relieve congestion by day)• Uniform taxing with congestion charges, carbon taxes etc … • Car-only days with car-free days …• Car-only roads with a network of pedestrian or car-free / bike-only streets …

BENEFITS in terms of: Noise, air-quality, public-health (obesity, diabetes, loneliness), work-life balance, free-time, commuter safety, energy security, employment …


What Happens to a Barrel of Crude?

The end of fossil-fuel is not just about energy, it is about chemicals, textiles, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics …

10% - Processing40% - Fuel50% - Other stuff

Ammonia, antiseptics, bubble gum, crayons,

denture adhesive, eyeglass frames, fertilizer,

floor polish, guitar strings, heart valves, ice chests,

insect repellant , life preservers,

liquid detergent, mascara paint, ping-pong paddles,

plastic beverage containers , roller-skate wheels,

sneakers, synthetic fibers, telephones,

tobacco pouches, volleyballs …


Water, Waste, Sewage Industry Eco-System …

Household waste, old shoes and clothes, , bottles, cans, newspapers, TVs, PCs, mobile phones … farms, gardens, building sites, restaurants and kitchens, food processing companies, paper companies, furniture, and accessories, retailers (packaging), workshops, abattoirs, human sewage …

Fertilizers, feed, composts, soils, bio-gas, bio-diesel, bio-ethanol, green chemistry precursors, metals (steel, iron, zinc, copper, gold, platinum, aluminium, cadmium, lithium, rare-earth metals …), glass, plastics, paper, second hand objects, … drinking water, grey-water … biomass …

Storage, disassembly … co-digesters, bio-reactors … enzymes, micro-organisms … (Craig Venter vision …)


Water, Waste, Sewage Industry Eco-System … II

The OLD ROLE for the public sector:• Organize the pipes, drains, dumps, and garbage collection … • Keep and maintain the pipes clean … (kitchen waste)• Regulate through legislation and make some money from fines…

The NEW ROLE is to encouraging the creation of whole new industries eco-system … garbage meets investment, entrepreneurship and job creation …

The PAYBACK1: Jobs2: Security3: Clean Environment


Missing Links and Recommendations IVision Trends:• Sustainable …• Walkable ... • Green …• Green-field … (start over with people not just buildings …)• Comprehensive / naïve … single-issue / pragmatic …• Single minded … (soviet model … no role for creativity … multiple minds …)• Hi-end real estate oriented towards well off knowledge professionals …• No place for poor, ageing, retired, modest income … (Vijay Govindarajan)

Beyond “The Future by Design”… from “Designs” to “Design PRINCIPLES” …

Missing links:• Affordable living (“cost + mark-up” versus “design for affordability”)• Ageing … (20%+ over 65 in several EU countries … going towards 40%+)• Shrinking size …• Shrinking income … increased financial burden …• What will be the impact on the building industry (jobs, GDP etc)?• What to do about it?


Missing Links and Recommendations IIChallenges

1: Visions that explicitly address SOCIAL and DEMOGRAPHIC issues of:• Qualitative growth …• Quantitative shrinking …• Ageing …• Real cost of living …

2: That feed into visions for the role of TECHNOLOGY that inform:• Systems of industrial actors …• New industry development …• In a fast-changing sectors …• That require innovation on many levels (not just technology)• That require new business models, partnerships and investment …

3: Move BEYOND the charismatic, single issue, hero-mayor … models for the future city management task …and how it is distributed throughout the administration … how the management of a city might extend to the region … (Mayfield)

4: Change from a culture of control to supporting ENTREPRENEURIAL activity … address silos … develop the capability to collaborate, cross boundaries, solve problems …


Missing Links and Recommendations III1: Technology is a key component of all aspects of the city … it evolves very quickly … it lives in systems that need to change over time … there are no single-best off-the-shelf solutions … (Technology forecasting, technology assessment, experimentation, piloting, evaluation and learning … not just at components or solutions but evolving socio-economic eco-systems)1

1: All cities need a vision to guide their development … this vision needs to include technology … most existing visions are either naïve or single-issue visions … a more savvy integrative approach is needed (the role of a CTO, Foresight, systems thinking …)

1: Technology alone is not enough, science is needed too … (demography, knowledge of how we live and work, how to live better, what people can afford … BOP markets for advanced but ageing economies)

2: The gap between city-vision and execution of that city-vision is innovation … not just technological innovation, but innovation in terms of management and organization, planning, collaboration, marketing, the business-models of the city, the way the city learns and incorporates learning into its actions … (corporate universities, thematic clusters (Advancity), the EIT (Climate KIC), Living Labs (ENoLL), the X-Prize …)

2: Innovation cannot be bought or delegated it needs to be actively planned and managed … it needs a culture of innovation to work … (Lisbon, innovation procurement, standards etc …)

2: Innovation provides opportunities for job creation … this should influence the way the city achieves its goals … with or without entrepreneurs, start-ups and new jobs … (life in the city entrepreneurship programmes, the city-incubator, the city venture fund)

3: We cannot continue to rely only on charismatic single–issue hero-mayors … most if not all city managers need to develop a vision, provide themselves with the tools to anticipate and manage change … exploit opportunities for harnessing change to create prosperity … (city management as a comprehensive set of disciplines, education and training initiatives …)

Documents

Cities of Tomorrow: Visions and Models – Brussels, DG REGIO 25-26 OCT [email protected] The Role of Technology in Cities of the Future