Cities and Climate Change: Scale, Co-Benefit and Sustainability Transition

Dr. Xuemei BaiSenior Science Leader CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences

Background

• More than half the Earth’s population are urban dwellers

• Cities as the center for• Cities as the center for economic growth, innovation, resource use, and environmental impactsand environmental impacts

• “Battle for sustainability to be won or lost in cities” Urban vs rural population

(Source: Grimm et al 2008)

Urban EcosystemsCities as driver and responder to environmental change

(Grimm et al 2008, Science)

Urban System

Urban Systems Structures and Functions Urban System

Input Natural Resource (Food,

Urban Land and Water Ecosystem Services Urban Infrastructure

yOutputs Industrial Products and ServicesEnergy, Water,

Other Materials) Capital Information

Distribution of Goods Provision of Urban Services Industrial Processes Urban Planning

Services Knowledge Wastes and Other Emissions Information Urban Planning

Urban Governance Urban life style

Urban Systems Performance Indicators Social (e.g. employment, liveability, health and well being, culture and heritage, equality) Economic (e.g. competitiveness, productivity) E i t l ( i d t ll ti l l i l l ffi i t )Environmental (e.g. air and water pollution level, noise level, resource efficiency etc)Governance (e.g. participation and inclusion)

Figure 2 Integrated urban metabolism and urban system performance indicators (Source: Bai and Schandl, 2010. In Encyclopedia of Urban Ecology, forthcoming)

Understanding cities as a complex system

• Mounting evidence of co-benefitMounting evidence of co benefit• Expand system boundary- Best solution

might not be the most obvious oneg• Trade-off risks

Importance of Urban Policy and Practice

• Urban policy making, even for those seemingly unrelated to global issues has an added agendaunrelated to global issues, has an added agenda which requires a thorough understanding of various interactions, careful weighing andvarious interactions, careful weighing and evaluation among options in terms of what are the benefits and trade-offs and for whom, before decisions are made.

• (Bai et al, Current Opinion on Environmental Sustainability, 2010)

Linking Urban Policy to Global Change: Scale Arguments

a) Spatial Scale: “Not on My Turf”b) Temporal Scale: “Not in My Term”c) Institutional Scale: “Not My Business

Temporal Scale of Urban Decisionof Urban DecisionMaking(Source: Bai 2007)

Solar energy use in Rizhao, China

The Need for a Change in System of Practice- Learning from Front Runners -

• Why did they do it? • How did they do it? • What are the main successes and lessons?• Are there common patterns in these practices?• Are there common patterns in these practices? • Can we extract transferable knowledge from the

successes and lessons of the front runners?

• => System Innovation and Transition Research

Conceptual Framework

Pathway of Experiments

TriggerTriggers Actors

Barriers

Linkages

Analyzing innovative practices in urban sustainability:Analyzing innovative practices in urban sustainability:Conceptual framework(Source: Based on Bai et al, Environmental Science and Policy, 2010)2010)

Fig. 1 – Distribution of primary triggers, actors, linkages and barriers according to different pathways. (Note: Prefix T, A, L, and B refers to Triggers, Actors, Linkages, and Barriers, respectively. For triggers, PCh, PCo, CC, PV, PH, O, EM,public health issue, others, employment, global concern, media exposure, and natural disaster, respectively. For actors, LG, ID, SG, LCgovernment, international development assistance agencies, state/national government, local community, local activists, private sector, others respectively For linkages CI CB LS PP IG NP and O represents cross/inter agency involvement (horizontal integrated) comothers, respectively. For linkages, CI, CB, LS, PP, IG, NP and O, represents cross/inter-agency involvement (horizontal integrated), comgovernments (vertically integrated), public–private sector partnership PPP, international/global linkages, networks of program activities/erespectively. For Barriers, P, Ca, E, I, N, T, S, Cu, O, and H, represents political, capacity, economical/financial, institutional, natural/phyacceptance, cultural factors, others, and historical limits, respectively.)

(Source: Bai et al, 2010)

Fig. 2 – Distribution of cumulative triggers, actors, linkages and barriers according to diff t th (different pathways. (Note: Prefix T, A, L, and B refers to Triggers, Actors, Linkages, and Barriers, respectively. For triggers, PCh, PCo, CC, PV, EM, PH, O, ND, GC, and ME, represents policy change, pollution or congestion, community concern and action,poverty, employment, public health issue, others, natural disaster, global concern, and media exposure, respectively. For actors, LG, SG, LC, ID, PS, LA, IN, ME and O, represents local government, state/national government, local community, international development assistance agencies, private sector, local activists, international NGOs, media, and others, respectively. For linkages, C C S G O / ( )CI, CB, LS, PP, IG, NP and O, represents cross/inter-agency involvement (horizontal integrated), community-based partnerships, localstate governments (vertically integrated), public–private sector partnership PPP, international/global linkages, networks of program activities/experiments, and others, respectively. For Barriers, P, I, E, Ca, T, S, N, Cu, O, and H, represents political, institutional, economical/financial, capacity, technology, social acceptance, natural/physical limits, cultural factors, others, and historical limits, respectively.) (Source: Bai et al, 2010)

Findings from 30 Urban Sustainability Practices in Asia

• About half of all cases either multiplied in other places or p pupscaled to change system of practice

• Political aspect prominent for both success and failure, e.g. policy change as trigger, local government role ase.g. policy change as trigger, local government role as main actor, state government support, institutional aspect as major barrier

• Technology or cultural aspect seldom identified as major• Technology or cultural aspect seldom identified as major barrier

• Many international donor funded projects tend to stay as i di id l i t ti lti li d b t ldindividual experiment, some times multiplied but seldom up-scaled to change system of practice

•

Building and Sharing Knowledge for Local Climate Adaptation

Knowledge

Common PatternsBest Practices

Transferable Knowledge

Extracted Knowledge

Knowledge BasedTool Development Knowledge

Common PatternsBest Practices

Transferable Knowledge

Extracted Knowledge

Knowledge BasedTool Development

Lessons Learnt

Comparative Analysis

ResearchReference SourceDecision Assistance

Tool Development

Lessons Learnt

Comparative Analysis

ResearchReference SourceDecision Assistance

Tool Development

Survey-Triggers/Perceptions-Actions-Barriers/Capacities-Responsiveness-Policy managementP /A t /Li k

Tool and Platform Development-Identification module-Assessment module-Action planning module-Knowledge management

Building Knowledge Building Knowledge For Local AdaptationFor Local Adaptation

Survey-Triggers/Perceptions-Actions-Barriers/Capacities-Responsiveness-Policy managementP /A t /Li k

Tool and Platform Development-Identification module-Assessment module-Action planning module-Knowledge management

Building Knowledge Building Knowledge For Local AdaptationFor Local Adaptation

Local Government

-Process/Actors/Linkagesmodule

Local Government

-Process/Actors/Linkagesmodule

Local practices &experimentation

StakeholderAssistance

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3…. Case n

BP1 BP2

Local Government

Local practices &experimentation

StakeholderAssistance

Case 1 Case 2 Case 3…. Case n

BP1 BP2

Local Government

Thank Youa ou

• For more information:

• Dr. Xuemei Bai

• Sustainable Ecosystems

• CSIRO

• GPO Box 284, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia

61 2 6242 1710• +61 2 6242 1710

• Xuemei.bai@csiro.au

• http://www csiro au/people/Xuemei Bai html• http://www.csiro.au/people/Xuemei.Bai.html

Key References for this Presentation• Lin, JY, B. Cao, SH Cui, W. Wang, X.M. Bai. 2010. Evaluating the , , , , g, g

effectiveness of urban energy conservation and GHG mitigation measures: the case of Xiamen City, China. Energy Policy 38:5123-5132.

• Li GL, Yu S, Bai XM, Zhang H, Zhu YG. 2010. Urban phosphorus metabolism through food consumption: The case of China. Journal of Industrial Ecology. (Accepted)

• Bai, XM, Roberts BH, Chen J. 2010. Urban Sustainability Experiments in Asia: Patterns and Pathways. Environmental Science and Policy13(4):312-325.

• Bai, XM, McAllister RRJ, Beaty M, Taylor B. 2010. Urban Policy and Governance in a Global Environment. Current Opinion on Environmental Sustainability. DOI: 10.1016/j.cosust.2010.05.008

• Bai, X.M. and H. Schandl, 2010. Urban Ecology and Industrial Ecology. I A E l di f U b E l (I D l t l d ) R tl dIn: An Encyclopedia of Urban Ecology (I. Douglas et al eds.), Rutledge. (in press)

• Grimm NB, Faeth SH, Golubiewski NE, Redman CL, Wu JG, Bai XM & Briggs JM, 2008. Global change and the ecology of cities. Science 319: 756 760756-760.

• Bai, X.M. 2007 Integrating Global Concerns into Urban Management: The Scale and Readiness Arguments. Journal of Industrial Ecology 11(2): 15-29.

• Bai X M and H Imura 2000 A comparative study of urban environment• Bai, X.M. and H. Imura 2000. A comparative study of urban environment in East Asia: Stage model of urban environmental evolution. International Review for Global Environmental Strategies. 1(1): 135-158.