Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global And North America

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global and North America (NA) Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update 2013-2018

February 2014

Under Embargo Until February 5, 2014

Cisco Confidential 2 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Expanding the Scope of Cisco’s IP Thought Leadership

Cisco® VNI Forecast research is an ongoing initiative to predict global traffic growth. This study focuses on consumer and business mobile data traffic and its key drivers.

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

Global Mobile Speed Data

Global Forecast Data


Global Mobile Data Traffic Drivers

More Mobile Connections

More Mobile Users

Faster Mobile Speeds

More Mobile Video


2013 7.0 Billion 2018 10.2 Billion

2013 1.4 Mbps 2018 2.5 Mbps

2013 4.1 Billion 2018 4.9 Billion

2013 53% of Traffic 2018 69% of Traffic


Overview

© 2013 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. 5 Cisco Confidential 5 © 2013-2014 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

By 2018, global mobile data traffic will reach an annual run rate of 190 exabytes per year, up from 18 exabytes in 2013 (nearly 11-fold growth).

190X More than all IP traffic generated in 2000

42 Trillion images (e.g., MMS or Instagram)

4 Trillion video clips (e.g., YouTube)



Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Top-Line Global Mobile Data Traffic will Increase Nearly 11-Fold from 2013─2018

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Month

10.8 EB

1.5 EB

15.9 EB

7.0 EB

4.4 EB

2.6 EB


61% CAGR 2013–2018


Year in Review 2013 Strong Growth Reported Worldwide

Country Trend

Korea ● As reported by regulator KCC, mobile data traffic grew 70% between 3Q 2012 and 3Q 2013.

China ● Mobile data traffic of China’s top 3 mobile operators grew 72% from mid-2012 to mid-2013.

Japan ● Mobile data traffic grew 92% in 2012 and 66% from 3Q 2012 to 3Q 2013, according to Japan’s MIC.

India ● Bharti Airtel reported mobile data traffic growth of 112% between 3Q 2012 and 3Q 2013.

● Reliance Communications reported mobile data traffic growth of 116% between 3Q 2012 and 3Q 2013.

Australia ● As reported by ACMA, mobile data traffic grew 47% from mid-2012 to mid-2013.

Italy ● As reported by AGCOM, mobile traffic in Italy in 3Q13 was up 34% Y/Y.

France ● As reported by ARCEP, mobile traffic in France was up 60% from 2Q 2013 to 2Q 2012.

Germany ● As reported by BNA, mobile traffic in Germany grew 40% in 2012.

Sweden ● As reported by PTS, mobile traffic in Sweden grew 69 percent from mid-2012 to mid-2013.

Russia ● Vimpelcom reported mobile data traffic growth of 106% from 3Q 2012 to 3Q 2013.

Other ● Vodafone’s Y/Y global mobile traffic growth was 60% from 1Q FY12 to 1Q FY13.

● Vodafone’s European traffic grew 35% during FY 12-13, up from 18% the previous FY 11-12.


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Month

Latin America (LATAM)

Middle East and Africa (MEA)

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

Western Europe (WE)

North America (NA)

Asia Pacific (APAC)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Regions MEA has the Highest Growth Rate (70%) from 2013–2018 APAC will Generate 42% of all Mobile Data Traffic by 2018

18.6%

42.4%

12.0%

9.4% 7.3%

10.3%

61% CAGR 2013–2018



Global Mobile Data Traffic Mobile Data Traffic Will Increase Nearly 11-Fold From 1.5 EB/month in 2013 to 15.9 EB/month by 2018


North America Western Europe Central/Eastern Europe

Latin America Middle East & Africa Asia Pacific

7.6-fold Growth 389 to 2,954 PB/mo







Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month)

2013 2018 GLOBAL

Global MB per Month

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Latin America

Central & Eastern Europe

Middle East & Africa

356

1,384

717

239

216

339

185

3,049

8,996

4,814

2,404

2,359

4,046

1,983


Asia-Pacific


Average Mobile User (Cellular Traffic per Month) Sample Global Usage

2 Hours of Video

5 Video Calls

2 Hours of Audio

2 App Downloads

2013

356 MB Traffic/month

20 Hours of Video

10 Video Calls

10 Hours of Audio

20 App Downloads

2018

3.0 GB Traffic/month



Regional Mobile Networking Dynamics 2013 to 2018 Unique Conditions Affect Each Region’s Mobile Data Traffic Growth

Region # of Mobile

Users # of Mobile

Devices / M2M # of Users

2GB / Month Avg. Mobile

Speed Mobile Data

Traffic

Asia Pacific 2.7B users

+4% (CAGR) 5.1B connects +8% (CAGR)

835M 2GB users +76% (CAGR)

2 Mbps +8% (CAGR)

6.7 EBs/Mo +67% (CAGR)


385M users +1% (CAGR)

874M connects +6% (CAGR)


2.3 Mbps +11% (CAGR)


Latin America 467M users +2% (CAGR)



1.0 Mbps +8% (CAGR)


Middle East & Africa 733M users +5% (CAGR)

1.6B connects +8% (CAGR)




North America 301M users +2% (CAGR)





Western Europe 364M users +1% (CAGR)





Note: The numbers above pertain to 2018, and the CAGR’s are for 2013 – 2018 period.


Drivers


Global Mobile Users From Over 4 Billion in 2013 to Nearly 5 Billion by 2018 at 3.5% CAGR Global Mobile Users Growing 3.2X Faster Than Global Population




2013: 278 M 2018: 301 M CAGR 1.6%

2013: 349 M 2018: 364 M CAGR 0.9%

2013: 361 M 2018: 385 M CAGR 1.3%

2013: 419 M 2018: 467 M CAGR 2.2%

2013: 565 M 2018: 733 M CAGR 5.3%

2013: 2,153 M 2018: 2,653 M

CAGR 4.3%


North America

2013: 425 M 2018: 736 M CAGR 11.6%

Western Europe

2013: 590 M 2018: 938 M CAGR 9.7%

Central/Eastern Europe

2013: 655 M 2018: 874 M CAGR 5.9%

Latin America

2013: 717 M 2018: 947 M CAGR 5.7%


2013: 1,116 M 2018: 1,628 M

CAGR 7.9%

Asia Pacific

2013: 3,506 M 2018: 5,107 M

CAGR 7.8%

Global Mobile Device and Connections From 7 Billion in 2013 to Over10 Billion by 2018 at 8% CAGR



Global Mobile Speed Growth Average Mobile Speed Will Nearly Double From 1.4 Mbps (2013) to 2.5 Mbps (2018)




2.6-fold Growth 1.7 to 4.5 Mbps



1.5-fold Growth 0.7 to 1 Mbps




Global Mobile Video Traffic By 2018 Video Drives 69% of Global Mobile Data Traffic, Up From 53% in 2013




67% of traffic by 2018 56% CAGR







Top Trends


VNI Mobile Forecast Update, 2013–2018 Top Mobile Networking Trends

1 Transitioning to Smarter Mobile Devices

2 Measuring IoE Adoption ─ Emerging Wearable Devices

3 Analyzing Mobile Applications ─ Video Dominance

4 Profiling Bandwidth Consumption by Device

5 Assessing Mobile Traffic/ Offload by Access Type (2G/3G/4G)

6 Comparing Mobile Network Speeds ─ Wi-Fi Wins

7 Reviewing Tiered Pricing ─ Managing Top Mobile Users

8 Adopting IPv6 ─ Beyond an Emerging Protocol

9 Defining Mobile “Prime Time” ─ Peak vs. Average Usage


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions o

f D

evic

es

Other Portable Devices (0.3%,0.3%) Tablets (1.3%,5.0%)

Laptops (2.1%,2.6%) M2M (4.9%,19.7%)

Smartphones (24.9%,38.5%) Non-Smartphones (66.4%,33.9%)

Global Mobile Device Growth by Type By 2018, Smartphones Will Gain 14 Points to Reach 39% Share

8% CAGR 2013–2018

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 * Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 device share


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions o

f D

evic

es o

r

Connections

4G 3G 2G

Global Connections by Network Type 2G, 3G, and 4G Technology Connection Share

59%

68%

29%

3%

26%

15%


48%

44%

8%


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions

of

Devic

es

Non-smart Devices and Connections

Smart Devices and Connections

54% 46%

39% 32% 26% 21%

46% 54% 61% 68% 74%

79%

Global Growth of Smart Mobile Devices & Connections By 2018, Smart Devices Will Have 54% Share

8% CAGR 2013–2018

Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018 * Smart devices are those having advanced computing capabilities with a minimum of 3G connectivity.


Smart Devices & Connections Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections

2013 2018

Global

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Latin America

Asia-Pacific



21%

65%

45%

15%

14%

17%

10%

54%

93%

83%

61%

55%

47%

36%



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exab

yte

s p

er

Mo

nth

Non-smart Traffic

Smart Traffic

96%

95% 93%

91% 90%

88% 12%

Global Impact of Smart Devices & Connections on Mobile Traffic By 2018, Smart Devices Will Have 96% Share of Traffic

61% CAGR 2013–2018


4%

5%

7%

9%

10%

* Smart traffic is generated by devices with advanced computing capabilities and a 3G connection (or higher).


Smart Devices & Connections Traffic Share Percent of Total Mobile Devices & Connections Traffic

2013 2018

Global

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Latin America

Asia-Pacific



88%

98%

95%

75%

81%

85%

76%

96%

100%

100%

95%

96%

95%

90%














0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bill

ions o

f M

2M

Connections

3G

2G

4G

71%

41%

Global M2M Connection Growth Global M2M Connections will Grow 6-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, More Than Half of Global M2M Connections Will be on 3G

43% CAGR 2013–2018


28%

35%

51%

14%

50%

9%

2.0 B

1.6 B

1.1 B

0.8 B

0.5 B 0.3 B

* In 2013, 4G accounts for 0.43% of global mobile M2M connections. In 2014 ,1.5% connections, in 2015 , 3% connections and in 2016 ,5.6% connections are 4G.

34%

64%

41%

56%

47%

48%


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% w

ith E

mbedded C

ellu

lar

Connectivi

ty

Mill

ions

of

Connecte

d W

eara

ble

s

22 M

127 M

Global Connected Wearable Devices Global Connected Wearables will Grow 8-Fold from 2013-2018; By 2018, 13 Percent will Have Embedded Cellular Connectivity

177 M


52% CAGR 2013–2018

58 M

36 M

88 M


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mill

ions o

f C

onnecte

d

Weara

ble

s

Western Europe (25% , 26%)

North America (42% , 34%)

Middle East & Africa (3% , 4%)

Latin America (5% , 5%)

Central & Eastern Europe (5% , 6%)

Asia Pacific (21% , 25%)

127 M

22 M

Regional Connected Wearable Devices North America Will Maintain the Largest Share

177 M

88 M

58 M

36 M


* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 regional wearable device share Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

52% CAGR 2013–2018


0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

% o

f S

mart

phone T

raff

ic

Month

ly T

raff

ic (

PB

)

34

2

Global Connected Wearable Devices Traffic Global Connected Wearables Traffic will Grow 36-Fold from 2013-2018

61

17

9 4


105% CAGR 2013–2018


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Month

ly T

raff

ic (

PB

) Western Europe (17% , 21%)

North America (65% , 50%)

Middle East & Africa (1% , 2%)

Latin America (2% , 3%)

Central & Eastern Europe (3% , 5%)

Asia Pacific (12% , 19%)34

2

Regional Connected Wearable Devices Traffic North America Will Maintain the Largest Share

61

17

9 4


* Figures (n) refer to 2013, 2018 regional wearable devices traffic share Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018

105% CAGR 2013–2018













0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Month

Mobile File Sharing (2.9%)

Mobile M2M (5.7%)

Mobile Audio (10.6%)

Mobile Web/Data (11.7%)

Mobile Video (69.1%)

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth / Apps Video to Exceed 69 Percent of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018


61% CAGR 2013–2018

Figures (n) refer to 2018 traffic share


82% 83% 85% 86% 88% 90%

18% 17% 15% 14% 12% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mobile Non-Cloud Traffic

Mobile Cloud Traffic

Global Mobile Cloud Traffic Cloud Accounted for 82% of Mobile Data Traffic in 2013 Cloud Will Account for 90% of Mobile Data Traffic by 2018


• IP Voice • File Sharing • File/App Downloading

• Video Streaming • Audio Streaming • Online Gaming • Social Networking • Web Browsing • Online Storage


Top Global Traffic Generating Apps


Top Traffic-Generating Mobile Apps (Android)

Facebook Social Media

YouTube Video Streaming

Netflix Video Streaming

TubeMate Video Downloading

Instagram Image Sharing

TuneIn Audio Streaming

SoundCloud Audio Streaming

Flipboard News

Skype Communications

Twitter Communications

Dropbox File Sharing

Spotify Audio Streaming

Pandora Audio Streaming

Top Traffic-Generating WiFi Apps (Android)

Netflix Video Streaming

Instagram Image Sharing

Dropbox File Sharing

Facebook Social Media

YouTube Video Streaming

Flipboard News

TuneIn Audio Streaming

VLC Media Player Video Streaming

BSPlayer Video Streaming

Spotify Audio Streaming

NYTimes News

Hulu Video Streaming

TubeMate Video Streaming













Global Average Mobile Connection (Devices and M2M); Traffic per Month

2013 2018 GLOBAL

Global MB per Month

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Asia-Pacific

Latin America



212

914

430

149

128

189

95

1,550

4,012

2,027

1,315

1,223

1,887

915



Wearable Device = 7 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

Mobile Device Data Traffic 2013 Mobile Device Data Traffic Generation Comparisons

Tablet = 127 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

= Laptop 227 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

= Smartphone 49 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)

M2M Module = 6 X (monthly basic mobile phone data traffic)



Average Traffic Per Mobile Device Type

Non-Smartphone 10.8 45

M2M 61 451

Wearable 78 345

Smartphone 529 2,672

Tablet 1,374 5,609

Laptop 2,455 5,095


2013 MBs per Month

2018 MBs per Month

Note: In 2013, 4G Smartphones generated 2 GBs/month and 4G Tablets generated 2.4 GBs/month


Wearable Device Usage Day in the Life of Smart Glass (249 MB)—High Usage Scenario

VideoCommunication

Navigation AudioStreaming

Video Upload

Traffic in MB













0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Month

2-2.5G

3-3.5G

4G

Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth: 4G Globally, 4G Will Be 51% of Mobile Traffic by 2018

30%

51%

46%

9% 60%

3%



Globally, in 2013, a 4G connection generated 2.2 GB/mo, 14.5X higher than the 153 MB/mo for non-4G connections.



0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Month

Cellular Traffic from Mobile Devices

Offload Traffic from Mobile Devices


Global Mobile Data Traffic Offload* 52% of Mobile Traffic to be Offloaded by 2018 45% of Mobile Traffic Offloaded in 2013

48%

52%

*Offload pertains to traffic from dual mode devices (i.e., supports cell & wi-fi; exc. laptops) over wi-fi/small cell networks


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2G 3G 4G

Mobile

and O

fflo

ad T

raff

ic fro

m

Mobile

-C

onnecte

d D

evic

es

Mobile Traffic

Offload Traffic

Global Mobile Data Traffic and Offload Traffic, 2018 4G Devices Offload More Traffic Than 3G and 2G

56% 49%

40%

60% 51% 44%



Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from tablets will be 69% by 2018. Globally, the amount of traffic offloaded from smartphones will be 51% by 2018. Source: Cisco VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, 2013–2018


0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Peta

byte

s p

er

Month

Mobile Data (67% CAGR)

Fixed/Wired (13% CAGR)

Fixed/Wi-Fi (26% CAGR)

Global IP Traffic by Local Access Technology Starting in 2016, Fixed/Wi-Fi Traffic Surpasses Fixed/Wired Traffic

42%

48%

10%

23% CAGR 2012–2017




Global Tablet Connectivity: Cellular vs. Wi-Fi Only Cellular Continues to Gain Share

Cellu

lar

vs. W

i-Fi O

nly

Tab

lets

Ratio

66% 58%

34%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Wi-Fi Only Cellular













Mobile Network Speeds to Increase Nearly 2-fold by 2018 Average Mobile Connection Speed (1.4 Mbps in 2013); Will Grow at a 13% CAGR—Reaching 2.5 Mbps by 2018

GLOBAL

Global Mobile Connection

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Asia-Pacific

Latin America



Global Smartphone Connection

Global Tablet Connection

CAGR 2013–2018

13%

21%

14%

8%

8%

11%

11%

12%

14%

2017 2018

2,396

2,988

2,452

1,863

924

2,128

832

2,509

4,549

3,003

1,992

999

2,269

900

6,756 7,044

8,018 8,998

2015 2016

1,908

2,304

1,946

1,617

793

1,711

675

2,147

2,620

2,183

1,728

856

2,183

753

5,504 6,132

6,298 6,983

2013 2014

1,387

1,728

1,585

1,327

684

1,351

529

1,676

2,010

1,735

1,492

734

1,446

605

3,983 4,864

4,591 5,584

(kbps)



Global Average Wi-Fi Speeds Wi-Fi exceeds Mobile speeds during 2013-2018

2013 2018 GLOBAL

Global Mbps

BY REGION

North America

Western Europe

Asia-Pacific

Latin America



3.9

13.6

10.7

7.9

5.7

11.7

3.2

23.7

25.8

19.4

22.0

11.9

27.2

4.7


(Mbps)


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mbps

Tablets

Smartphones

All Mobile Devices

Global Mobile Speeds by Device Type Tablet Speeds are 3.6x Higher than Average by 2018 Smartphone Speeds are 2.8x Higher than Average by 2018

9 Mbps

7 Mbps

3 Mbps



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mbps

4G

3G

All Network Types

2G

Global Mobile Speeds by Network Type 4G Speeds will be 6X Higher than Average by 2018 3-3.5G Speeds will be 2X Higher than Average by 2018

14 Mbps

5 Mbps

92 Kbps

3 Mbps














0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13

Perc

enta

ge o

f Top 1

perc

ent

to t

ota

l M

B/m

o

Top 1 %

Top Mobile User Profiles: 2010–2013 Top 1 Percent Generates10 Percent in Sept 2013

24%

16%

52%

10%



Remaining 99% Growing Faster than Top 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan-10 Sep-12 Sep-13

MB

per

User

per

Month

Top 1%

Remaining 99%

52%

16%

48%

84%

10%

90%



Top 10% Consumes Nearly as Much as the Remaining 90%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Top 1% Remaining99%

Top 5% Remaining95%

Top 10% Remaining90%

Top 20% Remaining80%

Top T

ier

%U

sage

Oct-12 Jun-13



0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13

Megabyte

s p

er

Month

Top 20%

Top 10%

Top 5%

Top 1%

All Top Tiers Increase in Usage from 2011 to 2013



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Greater than5 GB

Greater than2 GB

Greater than200 MB

Greater than20 MB

Greater than1 MB

Perc

enta

ge o

f U

sers

Oct-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

3 Percent of Users Consume 5 GB per Month 24 Percent Consume over 2 GB per Month

3%

24%

75%

93% 97%



0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Android iOS

Megabyte

s p

er

Month

Oct-11

Sep-12

Sep-13

iOS Usage Surpasses Android

1,255 MB/mo

1,296 MB/mo

850 MB/mo

1,325 MB/mo

960 MB/mo

652 MB/mo



Tiered Plans Outnumber Unlimited Plans; Unlimited Plans Continue to Lead in Data Consumption

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Oct-11 Sep-12 Sep-13

% N

um

ber

of

Mobile

Data

Pla

ns

Unlimited

Tiered

425 MB

922 MB

739 MB 1,261 MB

1,890 MB

1,081 MB



Number of Shared Plans Increase No Impact on Usage

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Oct-12 Sep-13

% N

um

ber

of

Mobile

Data

Pla

ns

Regular Plans

Shared Plans

648 MB

792 MB

1.4 MB

946 MB














0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber

of

Devic

es

(B)

1.3B

Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2018, 4.9B Total IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections

4.9B


31% CAGR 2013–2018


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

6.6 EB/ month

Global IPv6 Mobile Data Traffic Forecast By 2018, IPv6 Traffic Projected to be 42% of Mobile Data Traffic

.09 EB/ month

Exabyte

s p

er

Month


136% CAGR 2013–2018













0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Tbps

Average Hour Traffic

Busy Hour Traffic

Busy Hour Mobile Data Traffic Busy Hour Is 66% Higher Than Average Hour in 2013, 83% in 2018



Conclusion


Cisco VNI Global Mobile Forecast, 2013–2018 Key Takeaways / Summary

By 2018, mobile data traffic will reach 15.9 EBs/per month (190 EBs annually).

By 2018, there will be 1.4 mobile connections per capita globally.

By 2018, avg mobile connection speed will nearly double (1.4 Mbps to 2.5 Mbps).

By 2018, over 69% of the world’s mobile data traffic will be video.

Global Mobile Data Traffic

By 2018, 52% of mobile data traffic will be offloaded to Wi-Fi/small cell networks.

Global Mobile Traffic Offload

Global Mobile Smart Devices Traffic

Global Mobile Video

Global Mobile Network Speeds

Global Mobile Devices/Connections


By 2018, smart devices will generate 96% of global mobile data traffic.


Cisco VNI Mobile Forecast; 2013–2018 Get more info—see Tools and Resources

www.cisco.com/go/vni [email protected]

Thank you.


Global Mobile Data Traffic Growth Last Year Global Mobile Data Traffic Accelerated in 2013

70% 81%

74% 68%

61% 54%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Exabyte

s p

er

Month



Average Mobile Connection; Traffic per Month


1 Hour of Video

1 Video Call

2 Hours of Audio

1 App Download

2013

220 MB Traffic/month

10 Hours of Video

3 Video Calls

10 Hours of Audio

10 App Downloads

2018

1.8 GB Traffic/month


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Num

ber

of

Devic

es

(B)

837M

Global IPv6-Capable Mobile Devices/Connections By 2018, 3.5B Smartphones/Tablets IPv6-Capable

3.5B


33% CAGR 2013–2018

Documents

Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global And North America