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CIS Tubes and Pipes Forecast
Tubes and pipes for oil-gas industry, building and machine-building
quarTerly reporT
May, 2017
Metal Expert
metalexpert.com
SAMPLE
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and Pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 2 |
| ExECuTIvE Summary
Stabilization of oil quotes and appreciation of national currencies supported the economic growth in the CIS.
In the forecast period, there will be a recovery of consumer activity in russia, ukraine and Kazakhstan at least due to low comparison base of previous years. The steel pipe market will mostly be supported by the oil-and-gas sector on condition that producing companies fulfil their targets. a moderate rise is also expected in the construction industry amid better investment activity. Consumption of large diameter pipes will depend directly on timely financing of large pipeline projects.
ruSSIa
In 2017-2018 the capacity of the steel pipe market will change insignificantly as com-pared to last year. The figure will amount to xx-xx million t in 2017 and xx-xx million t in 2018 russian producers will supply over xx% of the required volumes.
Better investment activity in private construction and large infrastructure projects will make the capacity of the market for pipes used in construction rise to xx-xx million t in 2017-2018 (up xx-xx% from 2016).
In the oil-and-gas sector, investment plans of producing companies will contribute to a rise in OCTG consumption by at least xx-xx% to xx-xx million t in 2017-2018
Implementation of all planned projects in the pipeline segment, including regional gasification and pipeline repairs, will require about xx-xx million t of large diameter pipes and xx-xx million t of line pipes in 2017-2018.
The capacity of the mechanical tubing market is expected at xx-xx t in 2017-2018 (up xx-xx%).
uKraINE
In 2017-2018 the capacity of the steel pipe market will continue recovering. The figure will reach xx-xx t in 2017 (up xx% y-o-y) and xx-xx t in 2018 (up xx%). about xx% of demand will be covered by ukrainian mills.
Implementation of projects in housing and infrastructure development will keep sup-porting the market for pipes used in the construction sector. Consumption is forecast to increase to xx-xx t in 2017 (up xx%) and to xx-xx t in 2018.
Implementation of all plans of producing companies in the oil and gas industry in 2017-2018 will require at least xx-xx t of OCTG.
In 2017-2018 a rise in demand for large diameter pipes will be supported by planned modernization of urengoy – Pomary – uzhgorod gas pipeline and construction of Hermanowice – Bilche-volytsia gas pipeline. according to metal Expert’s estimates, consumption will amount to some xx-xx t of large diameter pipes. Considering the difficult situation at Khartsyzsk Pipe Plant, the domestic market requirements will be xx% covered by imports.
The capacity of the mechanical tubing market will amount to about xx-xx t in 2017-2018
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and Pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 3 |
KaZaKHSTaN
apparent consumption of steel pipes is forecast at xx-xx t in 2017 (up xx% y-o-y) and xx-xx t in 2018. Local producers will supply no less than xx% of small- and medium-sized pipes (seamless and welded), while demand for large diameter pipes will mostly be covered by imports (xx%).
Implementation of projects for residential, non-residential and infrastructure construction and under the Nurly Zher state programme will require additional volumes of pipes used in the construction industry. The capacity of this market will increase to xx-xx t in 2017 (up xx-xx%) and to xx-xx t in 2018.
Implementation of the programmes to maintain and ramp up extraction at Kashagan, Tengiz and Karachaganak fields will give the strongest support to the oil and gas market. OCTG consumption is expected at xx-xx t in 2017-2018 (up xx%). The ca-pacity of the line pipe market will recover to xx-xx t (up xx%).
The pipeline construction segment will require about xx t of large diameter pipes (down xx%) in 2017 for regional gas infrastructure development and scheduled re-construction. In 2018 the market capacity will increase to xx-xx t, provided the start of Eskene – Kuryk oil pipeline project.
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and Pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 4 |
| ConTenT
exeCuTIve Summary
| ruSSIa: ConSumPTIon ForeCaST
PIPeS For ConSTruCTIon InduSTry
oCTG
LIne PIPeS
meChanICaL TubInG
| ruSSIa: SuPPLy ForeCaST
SmaLL- and medIum-SIzed weLded PIPeS
SeamLeSS PIPeS
LarGe dIameTer PIPeS
| ruSSIa: PrICe ForeCaST
PrICe ForeCaST
| uKraIne: ConSumPTIon ForeCaST
PIPeS For ConSTruCTIon InduSTry
oCTG
LarGe dIameTer PIPeS
meChanICaL TubInG
| uKraIne: SuPPLy ForeCaST
SmaLL- and medIum-SIzed weLded PIPeS
SeamLeSS PIPeS
LarGe dIameTer PIPeS
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and Pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 5 |
| KazaKhSTan: ConSumPTIon ForeCaST
PIPeS For ConSTruCTIon InduSTry
oCTG
LIne PIPeS
| KazaKhSTan: SuPPLy ForeCaST
SmaLL- and medIum-SIzed weLded PIPeS
SeamLeSS PIPeS
LarGe dIameTer PIPeS
| CIS: deveLoPmenT TrendS In oIL and GaS InduSTry
Key evenTS oF rePorTInG quarTer
new ProjeCTS In oIL and GaS InduSTry
new TeChnoLoGIeS and FIeLd deveLoPmenTS auCTIonS
CIS: dynamICS oF maIn PIPeLIne ProjeCTS
CIS: major PIPeLIne ProjeCTS
| ConTenT
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 6 |
| SuppleMeNT To THe reporT “CIS TuBeS & pIpeS ForeCaST”:
Statistical service on website “metalexpert.com”№ Country Table name period Starting date Final date
1russia, ukraine
Hr strip domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week
2 ukraine pipe billets domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week
3russia, ukraine
Seamless pipes domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week
4 CIS welded pipes domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week5 russia Galvanized welded pipes domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week6 CIS Hollow sections domestic producers’ prices week jan. 07 current week
7russia, Kazakhstan
Seamless pipes stockists’ prices week jan. 07 current week
8russia, Kazakhstan
welded pipes stockists’ prices week jan. 07 current week
9 russia Galvanized welded pipes stockists’ prices week jan. 07 current week
10russia, Kazakhstan
Hollow sections stockists’ prices week jan. 07 current week
11russia, Kazakhstan
Seamless pipes import prices week jan. 07 current week
12 Kazakhstan welded pipes import prices week jan. 07 current week13 Kazakhstan Hollow sections import prices week jan. 07 current week14 russia Seamless pipes export prices week jan. 07 current week
15russia, ukraine
welded pipes export prices week jan. 07 current week
16russia, ukraine
Hollow sections export prices week jan. 07 current week
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 7 |
| MoNTHly STaTISTICal SuppleMeNT To THe reporT “CIS TuBeS & pIpeS ForeCaST”
№ Country Table name periodStarting date xls-
supplement
Starting date on website
Final date
1 russiarussia: pipe production and shipments structure, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
2 russiarussia: estimated billet consumption by pipe producers, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 - last month
3 russiarussia: estimated strip consumption by pipe producers, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 - last month
4 russiarussia: seamless pipe market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
5 russiarussia: welded pipes small&medium section market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
6 russiarussia: line pipes d>16” market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
7 russiarussia: line pipe market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
8 russiarussia: drill pipes market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
9 russiarussia: tubing market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
10 russiarussia: casing market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
11 russiarussia: stainless pipe & tube market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
12 russiarussia: boiler tubes market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
13 russiarussia: bearing tubes market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
14 russiarussia: pipes for construction industry market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
15 russiarussia: structure of tube & pipe supply from mills
month jan.15 - last month
16 ukraineukraine: pipe production and shipments structure, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
17 ukraineukraine: estimated billet consumption by pipe producers, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 - last month
18 ukraineukraine: estimated strip consumption by pipe producers, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 - last month
19 ukraineukraine: seamless pipe market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
20 ukraineukraine: welded pipes small&medium section market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
21 ukraineukraine: line pipes d>16” market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
22 ukraineukraine: drill pipes market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
23 ukraineukraine: tubing market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
24 ukraineukraine: casing market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
25 ukraineukraine: stainless pipe & tube market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
26 ukraineukraine: boiler tubes market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 8 |
№ Country Table name periodStarting date xls-
supplement
Starting date on website
Final date
27 ukraineukraine: bearing tubes market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
28 ukraineukraine: pipes for construction industry market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
29 ukraineukraine: structure of tube & pipe demand
month jan.15 jan. 04 last month
30 KazakhstanKazakhstan: seamless pipe market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 06 last month
31 KazakhstanKazakhstan: line pipes d>16” market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 06 last month
32 KazakhstanKazakhstan: welded pipes small&medium section market balance, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 06 last month
33 CISCIS: tube & pipe production and consumption, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 06 last month
34 worldlargest pipes importing countries, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 06 - 2 month
35 worldlargest pipes exporting countries, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 06 - 2 month
36 world eu: pipe import-export, ‘000 tonnes month jan.15 jan. 06 - 2 month
37 worldMiddle east: pipes import-export, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 06 - 1 month
38 world uSa: pipes import-export, ‘000 tonnes month jan.15 jan. 06 - 1 month
39 worldGeography of supplies from largest exporting countries, ‘000 tonnes
month jan.15 jan. 06 - 1 month
*Data on imports by key suppliers is available in the Excel supplement only *Market balance with imports detailed by large suppliers is given only in excel supplements
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 9 |
| quarTerly STaTISTICal SuppleMeNT* To THe reporT “CIS TuBeS & pIpeS ForeCaST”
№ Country Table name period Starting date Final date
1 CISCIS: forecast of key market indices in 2017-2018
year 2015 next year forecast
2 CISCIS: basic indices of pipe market, % of the previous quarter
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
3 CISCIS: forecast of pipe production capacities, ‘000 tonnes*
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
4 CISCIS: production capacities utilization in major segments of pipe market
quarter last quarter current quarter
5 CIS CIS: pipe market results of 2017q1 quarter current quarter
6 CISCIS: pipe consumption and parameters of consuming industries development
quarter y-o-y current quarter
7 russiarussia: pipe market segments results of 2017q1
quarter current quarter
8 russia russia: pipe market forecast, '000 tonnes quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
9 russiarussia: pipe market forecast by segments,'000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
10 russiarussia: import share in seamless pipe consumption, by type
year to date
11 russiarussia: import share in welded pipe&tube consumption, by type
year to date
12 russiarussia: pipe market forecast, by type, '000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
13 russiarussia: regional consumption of line pipes d>16", '000 tonnes
quarter y-o-y current quarter
14 russiarussia: regional consumption of small- and medium-sized pipes (seamless and welded), '000 tonnes
quarter y-o-y current quarter
15 russia russia: steel pipe consumption, by industries year to date
16 russiarussia: pipes for construction industry consumption forecast, '000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
17 russiarussia: oCTG consumption forecast, '000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
18 russia russia: seamless oCTG imports, '000 t year to date
19 russiarussia: line pipe consumption forecast, '000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
20 russiarussia: mechanical tubing consumption forecast, '000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
21 russiarussia: welded pipes small&medium section consumption forecast, '000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
22 russiarussia: seamless pipes consumption forecast, '000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
23 russiarussia: structure of tube & pipe producers in the regions in 2017q1
quarter current quarter
24 russiarussia: main sales markets for pipe exporters in 2017q1*
quarter current quarter
25 russiarussia: welded pipes small&medium section supply forecast, '000 tonnes
year 2015 next year forecast
26 russiarussia: welded pipes small&medium section exports,'000 tonnes
year to date
27 russiarussia: seamless pipes supply forecast, '000 tonnes
year 2015 next year forecast
28 russia russia: seamless pipes import-export, '000 t year to date
29 russiarussia: line pipes d>16" supply forecast, '000 tonnes
year 2015 next year forecast
30 russia russia: line pipes d>16" exports, '000 tonnes year to date
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 10 |
№ Country Table name period Starting date Final date
31 russiarussia: price forecast for small- and medium-sized welded pipes*
month jan. 15 18 month forecast
32 russiarussia: new welded pipes small&medium section production capacities
current projects
33 russiarussia: new line pipes d>16" production capacities
current projects
34 ukraineukraine: pipe market segments results of 2017q1
quarter current quarter
35 ukraineukraine: main sales markets for pipe exporters in 2017q1*
quarter current quarter
36 ukraine ukraine: pipe market forecast, '000 tonnes quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
37 ukraineukraine: pipe market forecast by segments,'000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
38 ukraineukraine: import share in pipe consumption, by type, '000 tonnes
year to date
39 ukraineukraine: pipe consumption forecast, '000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
40 ukraineukraine: seamless oCTG imports, '000 tonnes
year to date
41 ukraineukraine: welded pipes small&medium section supply forecast, '000 tonnes
year 2015 next year forecast
42 ukraineukraine: welded pipes small&medium section exports,'000 tonnes
year to date
43 ukraineukraine: seamless pipes supply forecast, '000 tonnes
year 2015 next year forecast
44 ukraineukraine: seamless pipes import-export, '000 tonnes
year to date
45 ukraineukraine: line pipes d>16" supply forecast, '000 tonnes
year 2015 next year forecast
46 ukraine ukraine: pipe market prices month jan. 11 last month
47 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan: pipe market forecast, '000 tonnes quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
48 KazakhstanKazakhstan: pipe market forecast by segments,'000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
49 KazakhstanKazakhstan: pipe consumption forecast, '000 tonnes
quarter q1 2015 6 quarter forecast
50 KazakhstanKazakhstan: steel pipes imports, by type, '000 tonnes
year to date
51 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan: pipe market prices month jan. 11 last month
52 CISGlobal pipes trade and shares of CIS suppliers
quarter y-o-y last quarter
53 CIS CIS: major gas pipeline projects current projects54 CIS CIS: major oil pipeline projects current projects55 CIS CIS: major oil products pipelines projects current projects56 CIS CIS: major products pipeline projects current projects
57 CISNew projects in oil and gas industry: onshore field
current projects
58 CISNew projects in oil and gas industry: offshore fields
current projects
*provided as xls-supplement only
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 12 |
MeTHodoloGy |
Sources
• information obtained directly from market participants, including daily monitoring of prices
• official reports and forecasts of related ministries and other authorities, mar-ket-makers
• national statistic bodies
• customs and railway statistics
• steel product manufacturers and traders
data evaluation methods
• information on prices coming from market participants is verified through several sources; actual wholesale prices are provided as a result
• statistic data on production and commodities flows is provided by manufacturers; the data is complemented and verified through third-party databases as well as by means of using estimates of the related ministries and authorities of russia (State Statistic Committee, Ministry of economy and development, agency for Housing Mortgage lending, etc.)
• statistic data on regional shipments (for russia only) is based on analysis on deliveries by rail through russian railways database
• information on existing capacities and expansion plans is obtained directly from producers
Forecasting methods
1. apparent consumption forecast
The estimate of apparent consumption in the forecasting periods is based on analysis of development outlook in the country’s major consuming industries – construction, oil and gas, machine-building, chemical, oil refining.
as forecasting indicators Metal expert uses target figures from ministries and agencies (the Ministry of economic development of russia, the Ministry of Industry and Trade of russia, the Ministry of energy of russia, Sberbank of russia), forecasts of specialized research institutes, analytical agencies and Metal expert’s estimates.
Metal Expert | CIS Tubes and pipes Forecast | May, 2017 | 13 |
Since forecasting indicators usually cover one-year period, the estimation of quarterly consumption is based on the traditional seasonal allocation, taking into account additional factors like implementation of government programmes, infra-structure projects, etc.
2. Supply forecast
Supply volume, to be presumably available in the market, is estimated, and then com-pared with Metal expert consumption forecast.
Supply volume is understood to mean the company aspiring to operate at the highest possible capacity and to at least keep up its share in shipments to the domestic market.
Supply forecast is made considering competitive advantages of the company and the regional distribution structure.
all calculations of utilization rates are performed taking into account the capacities launched before the beginning of the corresponding year.
pipe capacities are estimated without capacities of mothballed equipment.
Shipments of producers are calculated as the difference between total production and export in the country. Considering re-export and export from traders, amount of domestic shipments of plants may exceed total shipment of producers in the country.
3. Price forecast
The report includes the price forecast for GoST 10704(05) pipes (57-108 mm), welded hollow structural sections [mills’ prices on exw basis].
The basic price forecast is grounded on the forecast of domestic prices for Hr sheets and pipe producers’ margin over the forecast period.
producers’ price forecast is based on expected changes in margin considering sea-sonality, balance, strategies of certain producers as well as other factors and trends formed or anticipated in the market during the forecast period.
MeTHodoloGy |
This document is for information only. Global long products markets forecasts have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. whilst every effort has been made to ensure that the information is correct and the views sound, Metal Courier publication lTd cannot be made liable for any loss no matter how it may rise.
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| CIS TuBeS aNd pIpeS ForeCaST
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