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CIRCEClimate Change and Impact Research:

The Mediterranean Environment

S. Gualdi (credits: A. Iglesias, L. Reda and L. Tubiana)

CIRCE studies the climate change in the Mediterraneannot only in regard to scientific data but also in connectionwith economic and social impacts

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CIRCE is an FP6 EU Integrated Project Coordinators: A. Navarra (CMCC, Italy) and L. Tubiana (IDDRI, France)

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Francesco Bosello (FEEM), Mordechai Schechter (67)

8aphael BIlle (IDD8I), Tom Downing (SEI-OB)

CIRCE, for the first time, studies the Mediterranean climatethrough a multi-disciplinary scientific staff to evaluate the beststrategies of adaptation to climate change in theMediterranean.

Beyond research. In CIRCE, the role of public engagementis fundamental, especially at the local level.

Case studies and specific participative methods have beendesigned to achieve this result.

Exploiting several research skills in different disciplines:radiative fluxes, water cycle, cloudiness, aerosol and extremeevents , impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, forest, air qualityand human health. A special emphasis on economic andsocial aspects (tourism, energy markets and local migration).

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The CIRCE Strategy

ClimateDynamics Impacts

SocietalDynamics

CaseStudies

InducedPolicies

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• New monthly and daily series of near-surface temperature and precipitationobservations

• Daily maximum temperature serieshomogenized and analysis of thehomogenization on long-term trends

• Analysis of consistency of observedtemperature changes with climate changeprojections: further support thatgreenhouse gases forcing is a plausibleexplanation for the observed change

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Data from high-resolution modelling and interactive coupling.

New models specifically designed to simulate the Mediterraneanregion climate, simulations for the last 40 years of the 20th Centuryand the scenario from 1951 to 2050 (A1B scenario run)

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Impacts Ecosystem services: vulnerability and feedbacks by ecosystems to

biogeochemical and hydrological cycles

Human health: time series database of meteorological variables,air pollution and mortality for 6 Med cities

Tourism: relationship between climate and tourism flows. Specificregion assessment (to Balearic Islands, British outbound flows)

Migration identified patterns and human mobility and climate;preliminary empirical analysis on the effects of climate change

Energy developed panel data of household energy demand andclimatic variables in the short and long term

Sea Level Rise improved data base of DIVA model that includesland loss, its cost and the cost of coastal protection

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• Agreement on a finallist of indicators,compilation of data,evaluation of climaterisks, identification ofcoping ranges andcritical thresholds

• Development of aprototype web portalfor the case-studywork

• Links with localstakeholders

: THE CASE STUDIES

RACCM (Regional Assessment ofClimate Change in the Mediterranean)

The CIRCE final product: RACCM – Regional Assessmentof Climate Change in the Mediterranean, produced togetherwith stakeholders, as support system to the adaptation andmitigation policies in the Mediterranean region

Contributing to the next IPCC cycle Testing methodologies for regional assessments Facilitating dialogue with regional stakeholders Raising public awareness Shaping EU policies

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Part 1: air, sea and precipitation

Part 2: water

Part 3: agriculture, forests and ecosystems services

Part 4: people

Part 5: case studies

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(June 2011)

RACCM (Regional Assessment ofClimate Change in the Mediterranean)

SOME PRELIMINARYRESULTS

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… the work is still in progress

Part 1: Air, Sea and Precipitation

Specific models and simulations, with substantial efforts devotedto enhancing the representation of the Mediterranean Sea

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Past, current and future trends are in line with IPCC results– Temperature: increase in the number of very hot day and length of heat waves; decrease

in the number of very cold days and shorter cold spells– Precipitation: general decrease, but increase in the intensity of heavy precipitation events– Storms: no significant change in the intensity of the most extreme storms

. The overall uncertainty derived from the new generation of

CIRCE models is comparable or greater than previousinvestigations

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Part 2: WaterWater availability is one of the most critical impacts of climate

change in the Mediterranean.

The RACCM provides an assessment of the expected variations ofthe water cycle in the Mediterranean basin

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Main conclusion: a drier (and much drier, for some places likethe Near East) climate might be inevitable, generally decreasingriver discharges but greater variability

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A water crisis might thus become a big challenge for the futureof the region

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Uncertainties are still great

Part 3: Agriculture, forests andecosystem services

This RACCM chapter provides an assessment of the vulnerabilityof ecosystem services to climate change

Taking into account:– Future changes in socio-economic forces– Non-linear processes and thresholds– Risks of maladaptation

Vulnerability hot spots are identified

Main conclusion: the level of projected changes suggests thatthis region will no more be able to adapt by itself

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Part 4: People

This RACCM chapter discusses climate change and societies fromdifferent perspectives (e.g. economic, social science, health,tourism)

Cross-cutting findings:.

– Adaptive capacity: large differences between countries on the Northern and Southernshores of the Mediterranean

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– Integration: necessary at various scales (time and spatial) and in various areas, betweenactors, devised solutions.

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– Uncertainties: they are seen as posing limits to scientific predictions; therefore, thescientific community should either work to reduce the uncertainties and provide indicationson how to handle them.

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Thank You

CLIMATE CHANGE, ADAPTING WORLD