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CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION June 18 and 19, 2014 London and Frankfurt

CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION - West Fraser · CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION ... cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual ... Bank Average s

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Page 1: CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION - West Fraser · CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION ... cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual ... Bank Average s

CIBC

INVESTOR PRESENTATION

June 18 and 19, 2014

London and Frankfurt

Page 2: CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION - West Fraser · CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION ... cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual ... Bank Average s

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This presentation and comments associated with it contain

forward-looking statements including statements relating to U.S.

housing recovery, the potential for constrained lumber supply,

energy-related opportunities, earnings sensitivity and estimated

annual capital expenditures. These statements are subject to the

cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual

Management’s Discussion & Analysis which can be accessed on

the Company website www.westfraser.com.

Forward-Looking Statements

Page 3: CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION - West Fraser · CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION ... cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual ... Bank Average s

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• To be a leading forest products manufacturer,

focused on solid wood products

• Strong financial results through the business cycle

• Long-term growth and shareholder value

enhancement

• Stable, conservative financial structure

Our Goals

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• Operational excellence

• Diversification

• Product differentiation

• Integration

Our Strategy

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• Managing to ensure a committed workforce

• Cost control and efficiency

• Continuous reinvestment

• Internal and external benchmarking and

competition

• Straightforward, consistent business model

Operational Excellence

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Diversification

PRODUCTS

- Lumber

- Panels

- Market pulp

- Newsprint

GEOGRAPHY

- Western Canada

- U.S. South

MARKETS

- North America

- Asia

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LUMBER 29 mills

PANELS 6 mills

PULP & PAPER 5 mills

SPF 3.9 Bfbm SYP 2.3 Bfbm Total 6.2 Bfbm

Plywood: 830 MMsf3/8” MDF: 300 MMsf3/4” LVL: 3.2 MMcf

NBSK: 590 Mtonnes BCTMP: 650 Mtonnes Newsprint: 135 Mtonnes

Product Diversification

• North America’s largest lumber producer

• Largest plywood producer in Canada

• Third largest pulp producer in Canada

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Lumber66%

Panels11%

Pulp & Paper23%

Trend Sales Mix ($)

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Geographic Diversification

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West Fraser Lumber Capacity

Geographic diversification in lumber

B.C. 40%

Alberta 23%

U.S. 37%

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• Wood as the best environmental choice

• Renewable resource, sustainable business

• Expanding applications

• Bioenergy, full use of the resource

Product Differentiation

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• Lumber, panels, pulp, newsprint and energy

• Substantial fibre self-sufficiency

• Fuller utilization of resource

• Some benefits from counter-cyclicality

• Better able to respond to new opportunities

such as bioenergy

Integration (in Canada)

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Demand - North American housing

- Chinese construction and

industrial applications

- Japanese housing

Supply - Fibre limitations

- Residual offtake

- Mill closures

- People

Efficiency - Capital investment

- Business model

Earnings Growth Drivers - Lumber

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Returns on Lumber

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Q1-1

4

EBITDA margin (%) - Lumber

Average: 16%

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U.S. Housing

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Production Underlying Demand

Millio

n U

nit

s

Source: FEA, Q1 2014

Significant pent up demand bodes well for long-term recovery

Pent Up Housing Demand (conventional + mobile)

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0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

MortgageBankers

WellsFargo

NAHB FEA APA RISI MesirowFinancial

RoyalBank

Average

'00

0s

U.S. Housing Forecast (2014 & 2015)Single & Multi Family

Source: APA, April 2014

U.S. Housing

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Canadian Shipments to China

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MM

fbm

Source: Council of Forest Industries, December 2013

Equivalent to 300,000 housing starts *

* Based on consumption of 11.5 Mfbm per U.S. housing start (average mix of single and multi family)

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10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Annual Allowable Cut

BC Interior Quebec Ontario

Canadian Fibre Supply M

illio

n (

M3

)

Forecast

Source: FEA, Q4 2013

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0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

28.5 Bfbm of deferred sawtimber volume

U.S. South Positive Timber Inventory

Drain Projected Excess Growth

Bfbm, Int’l

Source: FEA, Q4 2013

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Demand - China’s paper, tissue and packaging

demand

- Developing countries’ demand

- Price of cotton and similar products

Supply - European paper capacity closures

- Russian and Canadian start ups

- Product diversification

(e.g. dissolving pulp)

- South American production

Reliability - Capital

- Technology

Earnings Growth Drivers - Pulp

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Pulp & Paper Sales Mix – 2013 ($)

North America,

38%

Asia, 56%

Europe, 6%

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Pulp - NBSK End-Use Products

Tissue/ Towel55%

Board14%

Uncoated Paper10%

Coated Paper11%

Specialty10%

West Fraser 2013 shipments:

510,100 Metric Tonnes

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Pulp - BCTMP End-Use Products

Tissue/Towel1%

Specialty8%

Uncoated Paper

23%

Coated Paper21%

Board47%

West Fraser 2013 shipments:

599,759 Metric Tonnes

Page 24: CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION - West Fraser · CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION ... cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual ... Bank Average s

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Alberta Newsprint is the lowest cost newsprint producer in North America

and a positive contributor to the profitability of our pulp and paper business

Paper — Newsprint C

dn

$/t

on

ne

North American Newsprint Cost Structure Par Exchange Rate

ANC

Source: PPPC Cost Survey 2011

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• Woodwaste to produce heat and steam to dry

wood products and for electricity and steam for

pulp mills

• Woodwaste to produce electricity to be used or

sold

• Pulp mill effluent as a source for biogas-electricity

generation

• Expanding opportunities to generate and sell

electricity levering off current business

Energy Opportunities

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Power Generation from Biomass

Cariboo pulp mill turbo-generator (completed) • Mill achieved energy self-sufficiency and excess power sold to

B.C. Hydro

Slave Lake pulp mill biomethanation project • Estimated startup late 2014

B.C. Hydro (Phase II) power generation projects (at two sawmills)

• Estimated startups: Q3 and Q4 - 2014

• Long-term contracts to sell power to B.C. Hydro

• Projected to reduce costs and contribute to sawmill earnings

when completed

Energy Opportunities

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• Reinvest profits to lower costs, improve efficiency

through technology and improved processes

• Estimate normalized annual capital spending

between $150 and $225 million

• Anticipate several years of “catch up” capital

spending including 2014 estimated to exceed $300

million

Capital Strategy

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Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables (2013)

Estimated Earnings Sensitivity to Key Variables 1

(based on 2013 production - $ millions)

Factor Variation Change in pre - tax e arnings

Lumber price US$ 1 0 ( per Mfbm ) 55

Plywood price Cdn $ 1 0 ( per Msf ) 8

NBSK price US$ 1 0 ( per tonne ) 5

BCTMP price US$ 1 0 ( pe r tonne ) 6

U.S. – Canadian $ exchange rate 2 US$0.01 ( per Cdn $ ) 21

1. Each sensitivity has been calculated on the basis that all other variables remain constant and assumes year end foreign exchange rates.

2. Excludes exchange impact of translation of U. S. dollar - denominated debt and other monetary items. Reflects the amount of the initial

US$0.01 change; additional changes are substantially, but not exactly, linear.

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Strong Cash Generation ($millions)

Total Q1-2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

Cash from Operations 1,081 (39) 419 195 85 421

Capital Expenditures 912 93 358 159 213 89

Acquisitions 90 60 - 30 - -

Dividends 86 6 24 24 24 8

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• Proven ability to generate strong cash flow even in

worst markets

• Consistent, straightforward business plan

• Loyal, long-term employee and management base

• Conservative financial management coupled with

proven ability to grow strategically

Why Invest in West Fraser?

Page 31: CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION - West Fraser · CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION ... cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual ... Bank Average s

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Annualized Shareholder Return (Cdn$)

14.2%

2.9%

4.8%

11.4%

9.7%

5.1%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

West Fraser S&P/TSX Dow Competitor A Competitor B Competitor C

June 2006* – June 12, 2014

* June 2006 marked the beginning of the steep decline in U.S. housing starts

Source: TD Bank

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“WFT” – Toronto Stock Exchange

www.WestFraser.com

These materials have been prepared by Management of the

Company. No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved of

the contents of these materials. These materials do not constitute an

offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities of the

Company, and shall not constitute an offer, solicitation or sale of the

Company’s securities in any jurisdiction in which such offer,

solicitation or sale would be unlawful. Securities of the Company may

not be offered or sold in the United States absent their prior

registration or qualification or an applicable exemption from the

applicable registration or qualification requirements.

Page 33: CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION - West Fraser · CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION ... cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual ... Bank Average s

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APPENDIX

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West Fraser Lumber Production

77%

12%

11%

2004 2.8 Bfbm

48%

21%

31%

2013 5.2 Bfbm

B.C. Interior Alberta U.S. South

Page 35: CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION - West Fraser · CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION ... cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual ... Bank Average s

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Lumber Operating Rate - 2013

90%

79%

87%

80% 78%

74%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

% o

f C

ap

ac

ity

WFT

Canada B.C.

Interior Canada

U.S.

South WFT

U.S. U.S.

Low-cost structure allows for higher operating rates in down market

Page 36: CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION - West Fraser · CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION ... cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual ... Bank Average s

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Acquisition of Buchanan Lumber,

High Prairie, Alberta • Acquisition includes:

– High Prairie sawmill (current capacity of 110 MMfbm)

– Related real estate and transportation business

– Timber harvesting rights with AAC of 430,000 m3 of coniferous and 21,000 m3 of deciduous timber

• Purchase price of $55.4 million plus working capital paid in cash at closing (April 3, 2014)

• 180 employees

West Fraser intends to expand capacity to approximately 175 MMfbm through an estimated capital investment of $15 million.

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Acquisition of Travis Lumber,

Mansfield, Arkansas • Western Arkansas sawmill

with a workforce of 140

• Purchase price of US$46 million

(C$51 million) plus

working capital paid in

cash at closing

(March 7, 2014)

• Current capacity of 110 MMfbm

West Fraser is planning expansion to approximately 150

MMfbm through an estimated US$10 million (C$11 million

capital) investment.

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Acquisition of Bibler Bros.,

Russellville, Arkansas

• Well-capitalized mill with

190 employees and

annual capacity of

approximately 160 MMfbm

• Purchase price of US$61 million

(C$67 million) plus working capital

payable in cash at closing (anticipated April 25, 2014)

• Will be West Fraser's fourth sawmill located in Arkansas

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BRITISH

COLUMBIA

SMITHERS

HOUSTON

QUESNEL

WILLIAMS LAKE

CHETWYND

FRASER LAKE

SLAVE LAKE

BLUE RIDGE

CHASM

100 MILE SUNDRE

HINTON EDSON

HIGH PRAIRIE

ALBERTA

2014

2012

Recent Growth

Page 40: CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION - West Fraser · CIBC INVESTOR PRESENTATION ... cautionary statement which introduces West Fraser’s 2013 Annual ... Bank Average s

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ARKANSAS

LITTLE

ROCK

MANSFIELD

RUSSELLVILLE

HUTTIG

LEOLA

NEW BOSTON

(TEXAS)

2014

Recent Growth