CIA-Harvard Menus of Change®

National Leadership Summit

June 10, 2014 Cambridge, MA General Session II

“Climate Change and Menu Strategy: Assessing Global Impact”

Alan Miller

Principal Climate Change Specialist, World Bank

Climate Change Due to Human Activity Is

Happening Now

“It is extremely likely that human influence has been the

dominant cause of the observed warming since the

mid-20th century.” IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, 2013

“. . .we know with increasing certainty that climate change is

happening now. While scientists continue to refine projections of

the future, observations unequivocally show that climate is

changing and that the warming of the past 50 years is primarily

due to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases.”

National Climate Assessment, 2014

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Change in precipitation (RCP 8.5 scenario, 21st century)

Source: NASA, 2013

Beginning of the century

End of the century

Changing climate conditions, frequencies

Sources: NASA 2012

Climate impacts are affecting human activity worldwide

Business disruption. Thailand floods: 660,000 jobs affected temporarily; permanently 50,000 jobs, 1,333 businesses

Water. Tigris-Euphrates river basins: alarming rates of losses in water storage. East Africa 2011, worst drought in 60 years. California drought forces 800,000 acres into fallow in 2014.

Transport. Danube, Mississippi: river cargo volume cut by 50%.

Agribusiness. MENA: Locust plague favored by changing climate. Nile Delta disappearing below rising sea levels. Balkans: agricultural yields severely affected by drought. California: farmers give up planting, ranchers selling off cattle.

Power. China, Southern Power Grid 2011 drought: less than 50% of installed hydropower capacity found water to turn turbines

Cities. New York adopts $19.5 billion adaptation plan (2013); Australian town plans evacuation due to drought (Feb. 2014)

Most Humans Will Experience Climate Change

Through Impacts on Food

• “The main way that most people will experience climate

change is through the impact on food: the food they eat, the

price they pay for it, and the availability and choice that they

have.” Tim Gore, Oxfam

• “The effects of climate change on crop and food production are

evident in several regions of the world. . . .All aspects of food

security are potentially affected by climate change, including

food access, utilization, and price stability.” (IPCC, 2013)

• Some recent examples:

California Drought Forces Ranchers To Take Cattle East As Grass Dies,

Creeks Run Dry (Reuters, 4/28/2014)

Russia bans grain exports because of fire and drought, sending prices

soaring, Washington Post, Aug. 6, 2010

After Russian Wheat Failure, Australian Floods bring more fears of

Grain shortage, January 4, 2011

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8 Foods That California’s Drought Will Make

More Costly (Arizona State study, 2014)

• Avocados are likely to go up 17 to 35 cents to as much as $1.60 each.

• Berries could rise 21 to 43 cents to as much as $3.46 per clamshell

container.

• Broccoli likely to go up 20 to 40 cents to a possible $2.18 per pound.

• Grapes might rise 26 to 50 cents to a possible $2.93 per pound.

• Lettuce likely to rise 31 to 62 cents to as much as $2.44 per head.

• Packaged salad could cost 17 to 34 cents more, to a possible $3.03 per

bag.

• Peppers likely to go up 18 to 35 cents to a possible $2.48 per pound.

• Tomatoes are likely to rise 22 to 45 cents to a possible $2.84 per

pound.

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Climate Change and Risks to Food Security

• All aspects of food security are

potentially affected by climate

change, including food access,

utilization, and price stability (high

confidence). . . .Global temperature

increases of ~4°C or more above

late-20th-century levels, combined

with increasing food demand, would

pose large risks to food security

globally and regionally (high

confidence). Risks to food security

are generally greater in low-latitude

areas.” IPCC 5AR, 2014

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Livestock Emissions (FAO, 2013)

• Total emissions from global livestock: 7.1 Gigatonnes of Co2-equiv per year,

representing 14.5 percent of all anthropogenic GHG emissions. Cattle are the

animal species responsible for the most emissions, about 65% of the emissions.

A conservative figure. Estimates including lost opportunity for carbon

sequestration due to deforestation and degraded lands are much higher;

including respiration higher still. (See, e.g., Goodland and Anhang)

• About 44 percent of livestock emissions are in the form of methane (CH4).

Nitrous Dioxide (N2O) is 29 percent and Carbon Dioxide (CO2) 27 percent.

• Feed production/processing (inc. land use change) + enteric fermentation from

ruminants are 45 and 39 percent of total emissions. Manure: 10%

• Beef and cattle milk are responsible for the most emissions, respectively,

contributing 41 percent and 20 percent of the sector’s overall GHG outputs.

• Emission intensities (i.e. emissions per unit of product) vary from commodity to

commodity and by country and production method. They are highest for beef,

lower for pigs and poultry.

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The land use/livestock/carbon connection

• Livestock sector by far the single largest anthropogenic user of land

Grazing: 26% of terrestrial surface;

feed crop production: about 1/3 of all arable land;

grazing for livestock a key factor in deforestation – 70% of previously

forested land in the Amazon is used as pasture, and feed crops cover a

large part of the reminder

About 70 percent of all grazing land in dry areas is considered degraded,

mostly because of overgrazing, compaction and erosion attributable to

livestock activity.

• Growth in the land area devoted to grains expected to continue over

the next decade driven by feed for livestock in developing countries

and biofuels in developed countries (OECD/FAO, 2013)

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The Changing Global Livestock Market: Increased

Trade, a Greater Role for Emerging Markets

• Most increased meat production in next decade in developing countries

about 80%; meat consumption per capita in these countries grows

steadily but remains half that in developed countries

• Production growth slows (1.6% p.a. versus 2.3%) due to rising energy &

feed costs (and thus higher production costs), increasing pressure from

competing land uses (pasture vs. crops), and growing water constraints

• Emerging economies expected to capture much of the growth in

agricultural trade by 2022 – many in locations among the most

vulnerable to climate impacts

• BUT the bulk of meat exports are expected to originate from the

United States -- one-third of the increase of all meats exported » Source: OECD/FAO Outlook, 2013

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Time is Running Out

• Current global greenhouse gas emission levels are considerably higher

than the levels in 2020 in line with meeting the 1.5° C or 2° C targets

-- and are still increasing. In 2010 developing countries accounted for

about 60 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. UNEP, 2013

• “Policies that have been implemented, or now being pursued, suggest

that the long-term average temperature increase is more likely to be

between 3.6C and 5.3C (compared with pre-industrial levels), with

most of the increase occurring this century. . . .To keep open a

realistic chance of meeting the 2C target, intensive action is required

before 2020. . .” IEA, 2013

• Higher levels of warming imply “large negative impacts on agricultural

productivity and substantial risks to global food production and

security” (IPCC, 2013)

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Climate Risks Increase (a lot) with Temperature

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Low Supply and Rising Demand Create

Conditions for Increasing Future Price Volatility

• “As long as food stocks in

major producing and

consuming countries remain

low, the risk of price

volatility is amplified. A wide

spread drought like that

experienced in 2012 in the

United States and CIS

countries, on top of low

stocks, could raise crop

prices by 15%-40%.”

OECD/FAO, 2013

• “High yield variability, due in part to

more variable weather conditions

and low input farming practices in

some developing countries, is

expected to be one of the factors

behind continued market and price

variability in the next decade.”

• Effects of the 2012 droughts on

food commodity prices – US/CIS

Yellow corn: 40%

Wheat: 22%

Oilseeds: 15%

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Reducing Livestock key to Short-Term Reduction

in Greenhouse Gas Concentrations

• Methane (CH4) has an

atmospheric lifetime of 12 ±

3 years and a GWP of 72 over

20 years, 25 over 100 years

and 7.6 over 500 years. The

decrease in GWP at longer

times is because methane is

degraded to water

and CO2 through chemical

reactions in the atmosphere.

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Meeting Climate Targets Requires Constraints on

Livestock Emissions – Almost Certainly Including

Dietary Changes

“…under current trends, food-related agricultural emissions of CH4 and N2O … by

the year 2070 . . .[may] be larger than the total CO2-equivalent emission level

compatible with meeting the 2 °C limit at chance larger than 50 % …. [while

productivity can be improved and emissions reduced] only by also assuming

reduced meat and dairy consumption do we find agricultural emission levels

that do not take more than half of the total emissions space in 2070. We

therefore conclude that dietary changes are crucial for meeting the 2 °C

target with high probability. This conclusion carries even more weight when one

considers that other GHG-emitting sectors, in particular energy, also face

significant constraints in achieving very large reductions.”

(Hedenus et al, 2014; italics added)

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Adaptation efforts are being identified today: IFC supported Coffee Project, Nicaragua

International Finance Corporation (IFC) investment US $20 million

RISK

Coffee plantations are showing signs of coffee rust, which proliferates with increasing temperatures and changing precipitation.

ADAPTATION SOLUTION

Planting resilient coffee varieties and using best management practices will make production less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

Projected suitability of coffee and 30 other

potential diversification/substitution crops in

Nicaragua in 2050.

Sources: CIAT 2012