Chula Vista Market Update Feb 09 2010

Current prices for homes on the marketTrends in pricing

Current levels of supply and demandValue metrics

market updateMcMillin Realty's

CHULA VISTA

Sunday February 7, 2010Report for the week of

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The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA this week is$375,000. The 646 homes have been onthe market for an average of 149 days.

THIS WEEK

Most Expensive ListingLeast Expensive Listing

Median List PriceAverage List Price

Real-Time Market Profile Trend

Total Inventory

$ 375,000$ 421,695

$ 3,800,000$ 100,000

646149Average Days on Market

Asking Price per Square Foot $ 180

46Absorbed This Week*Percent of Properties with Price Decrease 17 %Percent Relisted (reset DOM) 7 %Percent Flip (price increased) 8 %

City Overview CHULA VISTA

6,501 - 8,000 sq ft

Altos Research Value StatisticsMarket Action Index

Median Number of BedroomsMedian Number of Bathrooms

Median House Size (sq ft)Median Lot Size

Median Age

2,105

4.02.5

9

25Cool. Buyer's MarketAltos Research calculates the Market Action Index which measures available supplyrelative to the current level of demand. Index value above 30 indicates conditions favorthe seller. See the section below for full details.

The Market Action Index has beentrending down lately, while inventoryand days-on-market are climbing. Thetrends imply a weakening market.

To get a tightly targeted understandingof homes in the market, we break eachlocale into quartiles. Each quartile is25% of the homes listed.

QUARTILES

Characteristics per Quartile

Last Month's Trend Last Quarter's Trend

Trend Key

No Clear Monthly/Quarterly Trend

Bed BathMed.Sqft.

Med.Age Inven. New

Ab-sorbedMed. Lot SizeMedian PriceQuart

Avg.DoM

*Metric "Absorbed this Week" covers properties sold and those taken off the market for other reasons.Since sales sometimes take months to close, it is impossible to discern in real-time exactly which propertiessold.

Most expensive 25% of homes0.25 - 0.50acre3,213 5.0 3.5 6 161 15 11$ 539,0001 165

Upper-middle 25% of homes2,408 4.0 3.0 8 161 20 144,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 405,0002 155

Lower-middle 25% of homes1,773 4.0 2.5 10 162 15 124,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 335,0003 136

Least expensive 25% of homes1,402 3.0 2.0 46 162 16 96,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 255,7504 143

We'll refer to the quartiles in the trendgraphs below.

2McMillin Realty's Market Update for CHULA VISTA


PRICEDespite this week's down tic, the marketseems to have paused around thisplateau. The Market Action Index is agood leading indicator for thedurability of this shift.

QUARTILE PRICES

Prices have settled at a price plateauacross the board. Prices in all fourquartiles are basically mixed. Look for apersistent shift (up or down) in theMarket Action Index before prices movefrom these current levels.

Often, we find insights by watchingpricing trends within the quartilesegments.



The market plateau is seen across theprice and value. The price per squarefoot and median list price have bothbeen reasonably stagnant. Watch theMarket Action Index for persistentchanges as a leading indicator beforethe market moves from these levels.

PRICE AND VALUE

INVENTORYInventory has been climbing lately.Note that rising inventory alone doesnot signal a weakening market. Look tothe Market Action Index and Days onMarket trends to gauge whether buyerinterest is keeping up with availablesupply.



The CHULA VISTA market is currentlyin the Buyer's Market zone (below 30),though not strongly so. The 90-dayMarket Action Index stands this week at25 so buyers should expect findreasonable levels of selection.

The Market Action Index has beentrending lower for several weeks whileprices have remained relatively stable.If inventory continues to grow relativeto demand however, it is likely that wewill see downward pressure on pricing.

The Market Action Index (MAI) illustrates the balance between supply and demand using astatistical function of the current rate of sale versus current inventory.

An MAI value greater than 30 typically indicates a “Seller's Market” (a.k.a. "Hot Market")because demand is high enough to quickly gobble up available supply. A hot market willtypically cause prices to rise. MAI values below 30 indicate a "Buyer's Market" (a.k.a. "ColdMarket") where the inventory of already-listed homes is sufficient to last several months atthe current rate of sales. A cold market will typically cause prices to fall.

MARKET ACTION INDEXResidential house prices are a function of supply and demand, and market conditions can becharacterized by analyzing those factors. Watch this index for sustained changes: if the indexfalls into the Buyer’s Market zone for a long period, prices are likely in for a downwardcorrection.

Not surprisingly given the overallMarket Action Index, all quartiles are inthe Buyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentrate of demand for homes in thequartile. Watch the quartile for changesbefore the overall market shifts. Oftenone end of the market (e.g. the low end)will improve and signal a strengtheningmarket before the whole group changes.

The quartiles can help you answer the question, "How hot is the market for homes in my pricerange?"

MARKET ACTION QUARTILES



DAYS ON MARKET (DOM)The properties have been on themarket for an average of 149 days. Halfof the listings have come newly on themarket in the past 91 or so days.

DOM PER QUARTILEIt is not uncommon for the higherpriced homes in an area to take longerto sell than those in the lowerquartiles.



91915Neighborhood DetailCHULA VISTA




Total Inventory

$ 399,000$ 405,913

$ 999,900$ 239,580



12Absorbed This Week

The median single family home pricein CHULA VISTA 91915 this week is$399,000.

THIS WEEK



Median Age

2,338

4.02.5

6Altos Research Value Statistics

4,501 - 6500 sq ft

Market Action Index 25Cool. Buyer's Market

The Market Action index has beentrending down lately, while days-on-market is climbing, providing mostlybearish signs for the market.

PRICEWe continue to see prices in this zipcode bouncing around this plateau.Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we seeprices move from these levels.



PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have settled at aprice plateau across the board. Prices inall four quartiles are basically mixed.Look for a persistent shift (up or down)in the Market Action Index before pricesmove from these current levels.

QUARTILESCharacteristics per Quartile

Bed BathMed. SqftMed.Age Inven. New


Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes3,044 5.0 3.5 6 28 5 44,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 529,9501 136


sq ft$ 429,0002 177


sq ft$ 367,0003 151

Least expensive 25% of homes2.5 - 5.0 acres1,491 3.0 2.5 9 28 2 2$ 297,0004 125


PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been climbing lately with112 properties available this week. Notethat rising inventory alone does notsignal a weakening market. Look to theMarket Action Index to gauge whetherbuyer interest is keeping up withavailable supply.

The CHULA VISTA 91915 market iscurrently in the 'Buyer's Market' zone(below 30), though not strongly so. The90-day Market Action Index stands thisweek at 25 so buyers should expect findreasonable levels of selection.

MARKET ACTION INDEX

MARKET ACTION QUARTILESNot surprisingly, all quartiles are in theBuyer's Market zone with severalmonths of inventory given the currentlevels of demand. Watch the quartilesfor changes before the overall marketshifts.



DAYS ON MARKETThe properties have been on the marketfor an average of 146 days. Half of thelistings have come newly on the marketin the past 91 or so days. Watch the 90-day DOM trend for signals of a changingmarket.

DAYS ON MARKET

It is not uncommon forthe higher priced homes in an area(Quartiles 1 and 2) to take longer tosell than those in the lower quartiles.







Total Inventory

$ 494,950$ 625,160

$ 3,800,000$ 322,000



5Absorbed This Week


THIS WEEK



Median Age

3,167

4.63.5


8,001 - 10,000 sq ft


Inventory and days-on-market are bothtrending higher recently. However, theimproving Market Action Index impliessome increased demand will temper thenegative trends.

PRICEPrices in this zip code have been on adownward trend recently and thisweek, while essentially flat, doesn'tbreak us out of that cycle.







Avg.DoM


Upper-middle 25% of homes3,510 5.0 3.5 5 21 1 18,001 - 10,000

sq ft$ 570,0002 161

Lower-middle 25% of homes2,656 5.0 3.0 6 21 1 16,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 460,8763 175

Least expensive 25% of homes2,150 4.0 2.5 7 21 2 14,501 - 6500

sq ft$ 390,0004 206

Despite recently falling prices, the priceper square foot has stayed reasonablyflat. This implies that there's a portionof the market being priced at apremium. You can investigate thiscondition in the quartile details.

PRICE AND VALUE



INVENTORYInventory has been steady around theselevels in recent weeks with 84 propertiescurrently available.


MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET








Total Inventory

$ 378,450$ 393,913

$ 875,000$ 191,000





THIS WEEK



Median Age

2,172

4.02.5


4,501 - 6500 sq ft


The Market Action Index has beentrending down lately, while inventory isclimbing. These trends imply aweakening market.

PRICEWe continue to see prices in this zipcode bouncing around this plateau.Look for a persistent up-shift in theMarket Action Index before we seeprices move from these levels.







Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes3,164 5.0 3.5 7 50 8 46,501 - 8,000

sq ft$ 492,4951 145


sq ft$ 410,0002 110


sq ft$ 350,0003 139

Least expensive 25% of homes1,609 3.0 2.5 8 50 3 1Less than

4,500 sq ft$ 310,0004 149


PRICE AND VALUE





MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET








Total Inventory

$ 279,500$ 303,393

$ 1,495,000$ 100,000





THIS WEEK



Median Age

1,630

3.92.046

Altos Research Value Statistics

6,501 - 8,000 sq ft



PRICERecently prices in this zip have settledat a plateau even though they dippedthis week. Look for a persistent up-shiftin the Market Action Index before wesee prices significantly move from theselevels.







Avg.DoM

Most expensive 25% of homes2,230 4.0 2.5 21 31 2 58,001 - 10,000

sq ft$ 385,0001 167


sq ft$ 305,0002 204


sq ft$ 250,0003 135


sq ft$ 220,0004 161


PRICE AND VALUE





MARKET ACTION INDEX

MARKET ACTION QUARTILESThe middle of this zip code (Quartiles 2and 3) are in the Buyer's Market zonewith several months of inventory giventhe current levels of demand. Noticethat Quartiles 2 and 3 (the middle of themarket) are showing weaker demandthan either end.




DAYS ON MARKET








Total Inventory

$ 350,000$ 463,138

$ 2,999,500$ 185,000



8Absorbed This Week


THIS WEEK



Median Age

1,786

3.92.525

Altos Research Value Statistics

6,501 - 8,000 sq ft



PRICERecently prices in this zip have settledat a plateau even though they dippedthis week. Look for a persistent up-shiftin the Market Action Index before wesee prices significantly move from theselevels.



PRICE PER QUARTILEIn the quartile market segments, we seeprices in this zip code have generallysettled at a plateau, although Quartile 1has been trending a bit downward inrecent weeks. We'll need to see apersistent shift in the Market ActionIndex before we see prices across theboard move from these levels.




Avg.DoM



sq ft$ 385,0002 151


sq ft$ 325,0003 103


sq ft$ 245,0004 106


PRICE AND VALUE





MARKET ACTION INDEX





DAYS ON MARKET


About Altos Research CorporationAltos Research Corp. reports real-time analysis of the residential real estate market in local markets acrossthe country. All information contained herein is based on properties currently listed for sale and availablepublicly. When evaluating a particular property, make sure you use comparable sales data in addition tothe market trend information available in this report. The data presented in this report is accurate to thebest of our knowledge, but cannot be guaranteed as such. Use this report as one input in the real estatedecision making process, but do not rely on it for accuracy. Nothing in this report or any other AltosResearch publication is a recommendation to buy or to sell real estate. We recommend you work with alicensed real estate agent or broker.

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Chula Vista Market Update Feb 09 2010