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Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

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Page 1: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Choosing a Research QuestionSpecifying an Explanation

Hypotheses

Page 2: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

The Research ProcessDefine and Refine

Research QuestionLocate ResearchCollect Important

InformationWrite the

Literature ReviewMake Me Proud

Page 3: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Choosing a Research QuestionConcerned with the initial steps of an

empirical research projectFirst step is to choose a research question

Page 4: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Choosing a Research QuestionPolitical scientists investigate diverse

phenomena.Research question may focus on

The political behavior of individuals, groups, institutions, or political jurisdictions

Descriptive, factual, or normative knowledgeTwo or more variables

Page 5: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Choosing a Research QuestionResearch questions may originate from

Personal observation or experienceWritings of othersInterest in some broader social theoryPractical concerns like career objectives

Page 6: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Central Research Question

Define Your Research Question-What are you researching?-What do you seek to accomplish?

Refine Your Research Question-Is your question too broad? Too vague?-Is there an abundance of information?-Too much information? Too Little?

Page 7: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Specifying an ExplanationHow are two or more variables related?

A variable is a concept with variation. An independent variable is thought to

influence, affect, or cause variation in another variable.

A dependent variable is thought to depend upon or be caused by variation in an independent variable.

Page 8: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Specifying an ExplanationVariables can have many different kinds of

relationships:Multiple independent variables usually neededAntecedent variablesIntervening variablesAn arrow diagram can map the relationships

Page 9: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses
Page 10: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Quantitative ResearchVariables

(Attributes)Independent

VariableDependent VariableControl VariableHypotheses (not to

be proven!)Null Hypotheses

Page 11: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Specifying an ExplanationCausal relationships are the most interesting.A causal relationhip has three components:

X and Y covary.The change in X precedes the change in Y.Covariation between X and Y is not a

coincidence or spurious.We can state relationships in hypotheses.

Page 12: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

HypothesesSix characteristics of a good hypothesis:

1. Should be an empirical statement that formalizes an educated guess about a phenomenon that exists in the political world

2. Should explain general rather than particular phenomena

3. Logical reason for thinking that the hypothesis might be confirmed by the data

4. Should state the direction of the relationship5. Terms describing concepts should be

consistent with the manner of testing6. Data should be feasible to obtain and would

indicate if the hypothesis is defensible

Page 13: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

The Hypothesis

Makes a predictionMost research questions, however, formulate

more than one hypothesis. Attendance, along with solid study habits and

ample rest could also influence course grades.

Yet, the focus is typically on the null hypothesis.

Page 14: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Null HypothesisA hypothesis of no

relationshipProve or disprove

the null hypothesis to show support or opposition to your actual hypothesis.

Why?

Page 15: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

HypothesesHypotheses must specify a unit of analysis:

Individuals, groups, states, organizations, etc…Most research uses hypotheses with one unit

of analysis.Need to be able to identify these to be

successful

Page 16: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Clarity In Research

Be precise in determining unit(s) of analysis.

How will you analyze? Why are you choosing to analyze this way?

Choose the proper level of analysis.

Page 17: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Ecological FallacyA higher level of

data trying to explain a lower level of behavior.

Too much generalizing.

Ex: Income level in a community

Page 18: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

ReductionismA smaller level of

data trying to explain a higher level of behavior.

Ex: Steve Bartman caused the Chicago Cubs to miss the World Series in 2003.

Page 19: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

SpuriousnessA false

relationship; a relationship that appears but is not.

Other factors often enter

Ex: Children who listen to classical music perform better in school.

Page 20: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

HypothesesDefinitions of concepts should be

ClearAccuratePreciseInformative

Otherwise, reader will not understand concept correctly.

Many of the concepts used in political science are fairly abstract—careful consideration is necessary.

Page 21: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

What is a Variable?Simply, something that varies.Specifically, variables represent persons or

objects that can be manipulated, controlled, or merely measured for the sake of research.

Variation: How much a variable varies. Those with little variation are called constants.

Page 22: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Examples of VariablesIn the recent GOP

sweep of the House and Senate, variables (or factors) that may have played a part would include:

Voter TurnoutParty Message# of Open SeatsRedistricting# of IncumbentsWellstone Funeral

Page 23: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Independent VariablesThese variables are ones that are more or

less controlled. Scientists manipulate these variables as they

see fit.They still vary, but the variation is relatively known or taken into account.

Often there are many in a given study.

Page 24: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Dependent VariablesDependent variables are not controlled or

manipulated in any way, but instead are simply measured or registered.

These vary in relation to the independent variables, and while results can be predicted, the data is always measured.

There can be any number of dependent variables, but usually there is one to isolate reason for variation.

Page 25: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Independent V. DependentIntentionally

manipulatedControlledVary at known rateCause

Intentionally left aloneMeasuredVary at unknown rateEffect

Page 26: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Example: What affects a student’s arrival to class?Variables:Type of School

Liberals Arts v. UniversityType of Student

Athlete? Gender? GPA?Time

Bedtime, Waking, ArrivalMode of Transportation

Page 27: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Variables

The Independent Variable (IV) causes (causal relationship) the Dependent Variable (DV).

Example:Students who attend class earn higher course

grades.IV: Class attendanceDV: Course grades

Page 28: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

ExampleAn investigator had 60 subjects watch a

videotaped re-enactment of a bank robbery.   Half of the subjects were asked by a police investigator to recall the event, while the remaining subjects were interviewed by a police investigator while they were hypnotized.

Independent Variable: 

Dependent Variable:

Page 29: Choosing a Research Question Specifying an Explanation Hypotheses

Example 2To test a new voice feature in a cockpit design a flight

simulator was used.  The simulator was programmed to give visual readings of flight information, or to give visual and auditory (voice) readings of flight information.  All test pilots were put through a simulated emergency landing procedure, but were randomly assigned to the visual, or visual and auditory conditions.  Flight experts rated each pilot’s performance in the simulator on a scale of 1 (very poor) to 10 (excellent). 

Independent Variable:

Dependent Variable: