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I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners
Vladimir M. Sedivy MSc (Hons) Chem Eng, IMD
President
Salt Partners Ltd, Erlenbach ZH, Switzerland
Chloralkali Feedstock Dynamics, Trends and Forecasts
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In January 2020, Tecnon OrbiChem asked us whether we would make a presentation at the 24th World Chloralkali Conference in Singapore.
We said, yes.
In the meantime, the Corona virus changed the plans.
So, welcome to this virtual recording.
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I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners Welcome!
What is the chloralkali feedstock dynamics?
• Chloralkali feedstock is salt (NaCl);
• Dynamics is the development with time;
• It is the understanding of the driving forces;
• And finally, it is the prediction of future supply / demand and production / consumption of salt.
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I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners Contents
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt PartnersHow did the world salt production develop?
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1970 1980 1990
World total (tons) 146'600'000 172’800'000 187’200'000
2020e
338’000'000
2000 2010
World total (tons) 216’600'000 282’600'000
Sources: USGS (Ref. 1), BGS, Roskill, Salt Partners
World salt production 1970 – 2020:
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
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50'000'000
100'000'000
150'000'000
200'000'000
250'000'000
300'000'000
350'000'000
400'000'000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Wo
rld
sa
lt p
rod
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t/y)
Year
World Salt Production 1970 - 2019
Production published till 2016
Production revised in 2017
Production revised in 2018
Production revised in 2019
Poly. (Production published till 2016)
Average annual growth rate = 1.71%
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Between 1970 – 2020
• The world salt production grew from 100% to 231%;
• The average annual growth rate was 1.71%;
• Almost 40% was consumed for chlorine production;
• Almost 20% was consumed for production of soda ash;
• The rest was consumed for other purposes.
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners How was the world salt production consumed?
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Between 1970 – 2020
The world population grew:
• from: 3’701’000’000 in 1970 • to: 7’808’000’000 in 2020 or,
• from: 100% in 1970 • to: 211% in 2020
• The average annual growth rate was 1.41%
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners What was the driving force behind the growth?
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt PartnersHow did the salt consumption per capita develop?
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1970 1980 1990
Consumption (g/person/day) 109 106 96
Sources: USGS (Ref. 1), UN DESA Population Division (Ref. 2)
2000 2010 2020e
Consumption (g/person/day) 97 111 118
World per capita salt consumption 1970 – 2020:
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
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20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Wo
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per
cap
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sa
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su
mp
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/per
so
n/d
)
Year
World salt consumption per capita
Average annual growth rate = 0.2%
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Between 1970 – 2020 the salt consumption per capita
• Fluctuated between 90 and 120 g/person/day; • Grew by 0.2% per annum – was almost constant;• Generaly, physiological salt intake is 5 g/person/day;• 95% was consumed for chloralkali and other purposes.
Conclusion: Driving force behind the salt production growth is the population growth.
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners Driving force behind salt production growth
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Provided that
• Population growth rate will not change significantly; • Chlorine consumption per ton of PVC will not change;• Caustic consumption per ton of aluminium will not change;• Soda ash consumption per ton of glass will not change,
the salt requirement in 2029 will be 400’000’000 tpa, 82’000’000 tons more than today, which will need to be produced.
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners What will be the salt requirement in 2029?
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-200'000'000
-100'000'000
0
100'000'000
200'000'000
300'000'000
400'000'000
500'000'000
600'000'000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
Ca
pac
ity
uti
lisa
tio
n (
%)
Pro
du
ctio
n,
cap
aci
ty,
pro
jec
ts (
t/y)
Year
World Salt Production Capacity and Forecasts 2010-2029
Production published till 2016 Production revised in 2017
Production revised in 2018 Production revised in 2019
Production projected 2020-2029 Production capacity 2010-2019
Production capacity required 2020-2029 World new projects announced
World projected production capacity deficit New project announcements needed
Capacity utilisation, average 76% Poly. (Production revised in 2019)
Linear (Capacity utilisation, average 76%)
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
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2014 2015 2016
Total announced (t/y) 20’000’000 22’000’000 20’000’000
Sources: Roskill, Salt Partners, private communication
2017 2018 2019
Total announced (t/y) 34’000’000 48’000’000 72’000’000
What new salt projects have been announced?
Announced salt projects are shown as full green line on the forecast chart.
New salt projects announced 2014 – 2019
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Assuming that
• Salt production capacity utilisation rate is 76%; • Salt projects take 6 years from announcement to production;• 50% of announced projects will be actually implemented,
significantly more additional salt projects will have to be initiated than has been announced to date.
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners What must be done to satisfy the growing demand?
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners
In addition to the projects announced up to 2019, the following new projects need to be initiated to satisfy future demand:
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2015 2016 2017
Additions needed (t/y) 10’000’000 28’000’000 30’000’000
2018 2019 2020
Additions needed (t/y) 32’000’000 24’000’000 112’000’000
How much more salt production capacity is needed?
Required additional projects are shown as dotted green line on the forecast chart.
2021 2022 2023
Additions needed (t/y) 130’000’000 146’000’000 164’000’000
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Our view is that
• Insufficient salt production capacity leads to salt shortage; • Shortage increases profitability of salt production;• Higher profitability attracts investments;• New capacities facilitate higher production.
Present forecasts predict that only minimum salt price changes will occur, just in line with inflation.
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners How will salt prices develop?
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Prices are the best guarded secrets. However:
• Salt in solution mined brine is least expensive at USD 6/t; • Rock salt cost USD 10-15/t at mine, FOT (free on truck);• High quality solar salt from Australia cost USD 18-25/t FOB;• Vacuum salt in bulk prices are between USD 60-90/t FOT;• Dry packaged salt is much more expensive;• Suprapure®, >99.999 NaCl cost almost USD 1’000/kg
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners What are the salt prices today?
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There are three basic options:
• Build a new grass roots plant. Most expensive. See Ref. 3;
• Expand existing capacity. Brown roots is less expensive;
• Increase productivity. Least expensive and most effective.
HYDROSAL-XP® technology can increase productivity by 14-17% and improve quality.
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners How to increase salt production capacity?
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners
100 t/h industrial HYDROSAL-F rock salt upgrading plant in Spain
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I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners
40 t/h THERMOSAL recrystallised rock salt upgrading plant in Portugal producing purest industrial salt in Europe
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Performance test
Ca ppm 0.6
Mg ppm 0.2
SO4 ppm 53
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Ref. 1: US Geological Survey: https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/salt/;
Ref. 2: World population: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/
Ref. 3: Mardie salt and potash project: http://clients3.weblink.com.au/pdf/BCI/02250069.pdf.
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners References
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I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners How to secure salt availability and cost?
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Salt Partners Ernst Solvay’s Scientific Council
Metropole, Brussels, 1911: Planck, Solvay, Lorentz, Poincare, de Broglie, Currie, Rutherford, Einstein, Langevin, & Co.
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I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020
Salt Partners What was Ernst Solvay’s advice?
Salt PartnersWhy not turn your salt into gold?
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SALT PARTNERS
I.C.I.S. Tecnon OrbiChem Virtual Chloralkali Conference, 21-22 October 2020