Chinas Air Ambitions Feb 2014

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    While gaps still remain in key areas, Chinas overall

    development and production of military aircraft is

    advancing rapidly. IHS examines the developments,

    ambitions and outlook.

    Introduction

    Over the last 15 years Chinas domestic aerospace

    industry has made rapid progress in developing its

    capabilities to such an extent that it can now increasingly

    meet the requirements of the Peoples Liberation Army

    (PLA) in aircraft design and development.

    While there are still some key areas of deficiency, both in

    terms of military and industrial capabilities, it is clear that

    efforts are being made to address these remaining gaps

    in order to create a domestic military aerospace sector

    that is truly self-reliant.

    A number of high-profile events have made it difficult to

    ignore the development of Chinese aerospace capabilities

    over the last five years. Since 2011 seven new aircraft

    have made their maiden flights, including two fifth-

    generation combat aircraft designs.

    Chinas aircraft production (Source: IHS Janes DS Forecast)

    November 2013

    IHS Aerospace, Defence & Security

    Analysis:Chinas Air

    Ambitions

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    IHSAnalysis: Chinas Air Ambitions

    The PLAs aviation arms have also achieved a rapid pace

    of inventory modernisation and enhancement, due in no

    small part to the existence of nine known military aircraft

    production programmes in China that produce aircraft for

    the Chinese armed forces. In 2012 up to 148 aircraft arethought to have been produced for the army, navy, and

    air force.

    Fifth-generation ambitions

    The two highest-profile projects to come to light since

    2011 are the Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Corporation

    (CAC) J-20 and Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) J-

    31 fifth-generation combat aircraft. While the emergence

    of the J-20 in 2011 had been widely anticipated following

    tacit acknowledgement of the programme by PLA

    officials, the emergence of a second design just 21

    months later was a clear demonstration of the breadth of

    developmental work under way in China. At present there

    have been no indications of intent to acquire the J-31.

    However, the J-20 now looks set to become a future

    mainstay of the PLA Air Forces (PLAAFs) twin-engine

    fighter fleet.

    Both designs incorporate features that are clearly aimed

    at radar cross-section (RCS) minimisation. However,

    judging the two aircrafts capabilities remains extremely

    challenging as systems and sensors are now more crucial

    to military aircraft performance than at any time in the

    past. Until more is known about the technology within the

    J-20 and J-31 it is impossible to accurately compare the

    two to other fifth-generation combat aircraft. In addition,

    the eventual production-standard aircraft may well differ

    in some respects from the prototypes now in flight test as

    new technologies are refined and developed.

    Given the relatively limited maturity of Chinese technology

    in a number of areas, the kind of integrated capabilities

    possessed by these aircraft is unlikely to be of a similar

    standard to Russian and Western systems. For example,

    the first generation of Chinese-developed electronically

    scanned array radars has yet to enter service.

    Perhaps the best indication of the nascent capabilities in

    these areas is the reported reluctance of Russia to supply

    Beijing with Sukhois 4++-generation Su-35 for fear that

    the aircrafts systems will be reverse-engineered by

    China.

    Even if access to technology is not behind Beijings

    interest in the Su-35, its purchase at a time when so

    many indigenous fighter development and production

    programmes are ongoing would suggest the Russian

    aircraft is superior in some respects.

    Strategic lift

    Arguably a more important milestone for both industry

    and the PLA, however, was the first f light of the Xian

    Aircraft Industries Group Y-20 strategic transport aircraft

    that took place in January 2013. The Y-20 represents the

    first example of a truly indigenous large aircraft, albeit

    with Russian-made Aviadvigatel D-30KP2 engines and

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    apparent design input from Ukraines Antonov, and

    demonstrates a further expansion of Chinese industrial

    capabilities. The emergence of the type also provides a

    potential opportunity to develop a genuine air-to-air

    refuelling platform in the future, thereby addressing two ofthe key weaknesses of the PLAs current aviation

    inventory.

    Meanwhile, the Shaanxi Aircraft Industries Company Y-9

    programme a comprehensive modernisation of the

    companys Y-8 tactical transport aircraft featuring a

    redesigned wing, fully pressurised fuselage, and new six-

    bladed propellers provides further evidence of the

    increased focus on airlift. Despite initial delays as a resultof design changes, the first production aircraft in PLAAF

    colours was seen in the latter part of 2012 and the type is

    now expected to begin re-equipping the air forces

    transport regiments.

    The parallel development of a maritime patrol and anti-

    submarine warfare version of the aircraft featuring a

    large chin-mounted surface-search radar, electro-optical

    turret, ordnance bay, and magnetic anomaly detectorboom also appears to have made rapid progress over

    the last three years, with the aircraft pictured in flight in

    late 2012.

    This was followed in November 2013 by images

    suggesting a new airborne early warning (AEW) variant of

    the Y-8/9 was also under development. This featured a

    top-mounted rotating dome radar, possibly representing

    a further development of the ZDK-03 AEW aircraft

    supplied to the Pakistan Air Force in 2011. With the

    Ilyushin Il-76-based KJ-2000 and Y-8-based KJ-200

    already in service with the PLAAF and the PLA Navy

    (PLAN), China appears to be intent on enhancing anairborne surveillance fleet that is already second in size

    only to the United States.

    Brand new trainers

    The modernisation of the PLAAF and PLANs advanced

    jet trainer fleets has now also begun in earnest with the

    Guizhou Aviation Industry Company JL-9 and Hongdu

    Aviation Industry Group JL-10 (formerly known by its

    manufacturers designation of L-15) having both entered

    series production. On 1 July the initial JL-10 production

    aircraft for the PLAAF conducted its maiden flight. With

    250 of the aircrafts Ukrainian Motor Sich AL222-24F

    afterburning turbofan engines placed under contract in

    2011, it seems highly likely that at least 100 aircraft will

    enter service as replacements for the ageing CAC JJ-7

    inventory. At present the PLAN appears to be focused on

    the less technologically advanced JL-9 design, with statemedia revealing the existence of a carrier-training variant

    in 2011.

    The rotary-wing sector has seen more mixed progress.

    Local industry has yet to develop a suitable medium- or

    heavy-lift helicopter design despite pressing requirements

    for both from the PLA. The development of the Hafei

    Aviation Industry Company Z-9 (based on the Eurocopter

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    AS 365 Dauphin) to fill a range of roles such as troop

    transport (Z-9B), anti-submarine warfare (Z-9C), anti-

    surface warfare (Z-9D), and close air support (Z-9WZ) has

    been in part due to the lack of a viable, indigenously

    produced alternative to meet these requirements.

    The most notable recent successes from a PLA

    perspective have come in the form of the Changhe

    Aircraft Industries Group Z-10 and Hafei Aviation Industry

    Company Z-19: two indigenously produced attack

    helicopters. The Z-10, which is now known to have been

    designed in its initial form by Russias Kamov, has been

    identified operating with at least five army aviation

    regiments and provided the PLA with its first true attackhelicopter. Meanwhile, recent photographs suggest the Z-

    19, a further extensive re-development of the Z-9 with a

    tandom cockpit, may now also have entered service.

    Nevertheless, the scale of imports of Russian Mil Mi-

    17/171 helicopters over the last 10 years provides an

    indication of the comparative lack of progress that has

    been made by the Chinese aerospace industry in the

    rotary-wing sector. Since the Sichuan earthquake in 2008,where PLA units sent to assist in rescue operations were

    delayed by a lack of tactical airlift, import orders have

    accelerated in an apparently pragmatic recognition that

    local industry would not be in a position to address this

    capability shortfall soon enough.

    In the future a militarised development of the civil Hafei

    Aviation Industry Company Z-15 (EC175) co-developed

    with Eurocopter and an unnamed design resembling the

    Sikorsky S-70 (UH-60) Black Hawk often referred to as

    the Z-20 offer the most likely short-term prospects for

    success.

    Combat aircraft developments

    While the spectrum of activity in aircraft design and

    manufacturing has broadened over the last three years,

    combat aircraft remain the short-term focus of the

    aerospace industry. Of the nine production programmes

    known to be active in China in 2013, four Xian Aircraft

    Industries Groups H-6K and JH-7A, the J-10A, and the

    J-11B are producing aircraft for PLA fighter and bomber

    divisions. Similarly, five of the identified developmental

    efforts that are under way the J-10B, J-15, SAC J-16, J-

    20, and J-31 are multirole fighter designs.

    The J-10 programme remains arguably the most

    important Chinese fighter project of the past two

    decades, representing a breakthrough moment for the

    domestic aerospace industry when it entered service in

    2003. While deliveries of the J-10A have proceeded at

    pace over the intervening 10 years, production is now

    expected to draw to a close following completion of the

    development of the enhanced J-10B.

    There has been no official confirmation of PLAAF units

    being equipped with this new variant, although imagery

    from China suggests series production is now well under

    way, with the aircraft expected to enter service in the next

    few months after a lengthy flight programme. Ultimately,

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    more than 600 J-10s are expected to enter service with

    the PLAAF as the remaining CAC J-7-equipped regiments

    are recapitalised.

    Chinas fighter fleet has undergone a generational shift (Source: IHS Janes

    DS Forecast)

    The J-10B variant provides an excellent example of the

    incremental approach to the development of combat

    aircraft that has been a standard approach for Chinese

    manufacturers since the 1970s. Production of the initial

    variant has continued at pace alongside the development

    of the J-10B. The aircraft appears to feature a scanned

    array radar the first fitted to a Chinese fighter a

    modified diverterless engine intake, and an enhanced

    range of sensors and electronic warfare capabilities.

    Chinese officials have confirmed an increased use of

    composite materials and the creation of a pulsation

    production line, demonstrating that manufacturing

    techniques are maturing alongside system and aircraft

    design capabilities.

    While in the past the approach of incremental

    developments to existing aircraft designs was necessary

    due to the lack of capability in platform design, this may

    no longer be the key motivation. With production shifting

    from foreign to indigenously designed aircraft, this

    technique is in many ways well suited to the pace of

    progress being made in parallel areas such as engine and

    system development. The breadth and tempo of projects

    currently under way in China necessitates such a flexible

    approach and has also provided a key advantage in

    rapidly building the competency of domestic designbureaus and production facilities.

    Simultaneously, SACs previously troubled J-11B project

    now appears to be making steady progress. Following

    several years of setbacks largely a result of

    development issues with the intended indigenous Liming

    Aero-Engine Manufacturing Corporation (LMAC) WS-10A

    Taihang powerplant at least four regiments are now

    equipped with the type. While the aircraft is essentially anindigenised development of the license-built Sukhoi Su-

    27SK, the design incorporates substantial improvements,

    including a reduced RCS, a strengthened airframe with

    the use of composite materials, an improved fire-control

    radar, a new flight-control system, and a glass cockpit.

    The PLAN also began taking deliveries of the J-11B in

    mid-2010.

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    One significant consequence of the proliferation of

    indigenous combat aircraft projects is that the PLAs

    fighter fleet has experienced a rapid pace of

    modernisation over the past decade. While a large

    number of regiments continue to be equipped withobsolete J-7 and SAC J-8 designs, the increasingly

    reliable flow of aircraft from the J-10 and J-11 production

    lines has allowed for significant qualitative advances. In

    2007 around one in four of the PLAAFs combat aircraft

    fleet could be considered to possess modern, fourth-

    generation capabilities, whereas by late 2013 just six

    years later close to half of the fighter fleet is thought to

    have reached this standard.

    Nevertheless, modernisation to date has been largely

    limited to combat aircraft fleets, with the development

    and production of combat aircraft prioritised over support

    aircraft such as airlifters and aerial refuelling platforms. As

    a result the PLAAFs inventory remains largely focused on

    the provision of capabilities suited to localised operations

    and possesses only limited power projection capabilities.

    Strategic transformation

    A comparative analysis of army and air force aviation in

    the United States and China shows that mobility remains

    a key capability weakness for the PLA. China operates

    one transport helicopter for every seven US platforms;

    one C-130-sized tactical transport for every 13 in US

    service; and one strategic transport for every 14 operated

    by the US Air Force (USAF).

    The USAF, meanwhile, operates around 570 aerial

    refuelling aircraft compared with just 10 possessed by the

    PLAAF. If training aircraft are excluded, then 42% of the

    USAFs inventory is dedicated to support tasks such as

    airlift, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR),and aerial refuelling. The PLAAFs own support aircraft

    constitute 26% of its inventory.

    US and Chinese transport aircraft inventories (Source: IHS Janes Military &

    Security Assessments Intelligence Centre)

    It is therefore perhaps no surprise that one of the Chinese

    Ministry of National Defenses (MNDs) stated priorities for

    the PLAAF is to accelerate its transition from territorial air

    defence to both offensive and defensive operations, and

    increase its capabilities for carrying out reconnaissance

    and early warning ... and strategic projection, in an effort

    to build itself into a modernised strategic air force. As a

    result, while the PLAAF is expected to continue to

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    modernise its combat aircraft fleet over the coming

    decade, it is likely to be the support elements of the

    inventory that see a quantitative expansion as Beijing

    looks to create a more balanced air force capability better

    suited to supporting the expanding ambitions of the PLAand the Chinese government.

    The entry into service of the Y-9 which is expected to

    maintain a steady rate of production over the next 10

    years and the Y-20 in the longer term will provide

    Chinese airlift capabilities with a considerable boost and

    allow the PLAAF to modernise and expand its air

    transport fleet.

    Although progress is likely to be relatively slow compared

    with the transformation seen in the combat aircraft fleet,

    particularly with regard to strategic lift, the domestic

    aerospace sector now appears to be much closer to

    being in a position to fill these increasingly important PLA

    requirements. Furthermore, the Y-9 and Y-20 are likely to

    form the basis of a number of ISR and aerial refuelling

    platforms in the future.

    Air-to-air refuelling is perhaps the most significant gap in

    capabilities at present; the air force currently has just 10

    H-6U modified bombers offering very little in the way of

    capacity and minimal hope that this capability can be

    expanded significantly in the short term. Until this

    situation is rectified the PLAs ability to conduct and

    sustain operations at even modest distances beyond its

    national territory will remain severely constrained.

    Importing capability

    The governments growing emphasis on indigenous

    sources for its defence equipment has certainly placed

    pressure on the domestic industry to develop the

    technologies and platforms now required to fill the more

    expansive strategic goals of the PLA. Nevertheless, the

    Chinese aerospace sector remains unable to meet all PLA

    requirements, with the clearest indications of the more

    persistent gaps in industrial capability being provided by

    the contracts signed over recent years for foreign-

    manufactured aircraft and systems.

    While imports of Russian Sukhoi combat aircraft

    concluded in 2005 and local production of the licence-

    produced J-11A (Su-27SK) was curtailed in 2004, a

    number of contracts have been finalised since that time in

    areas where local capacity is less robust.

    In total, contracts for 138 aircraft and 1,423 engines have

    been finalised with foreign suppliers over the past decade

    and there have been few signs of a discernible downturn

    in the pace or size of orders.

    Of more than 1,400 engines, 707 ordered have been

    placed under contract since the start of 2011. With

    production rates suggesting that around 100 engines will

    be required annually to support fighter production alone

    over the next 10 years, reports stating that follow-on

    orders are already under negotiation seem plausible.

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    Furthermore, a number of key aviation programmes

    remain reliant on the continued supply of foreign-made

    powerplants. The L-15 advanced jet trainer is currently

    powered by the Ukrainian-made AL-222-24F, the J-10

    and J-10B by the Russian AL-31FN, the H-6K and Y-20by the D-30KP2, and the CAC JF-17 a key Chinese

    export programme by the RD-93.

    Investing in engines

    While Beijing has been pragmatic in its decision to

    continue importing large numbers of engines from

    abroad, government and industry continue to invest in

    closing this key capability gap. In April 2011 AVIC

    announced plans to commit more than CNY10 billion

    (USD1.53 billion) to aero-engine R&D over the following

    five years: a commitment that represented AVICs

    greatest independent investment during the period. The

    company also announced in 2012 that it would task

    LMAC one of its major aero-engine subsidiaries with

    the creation and implementation of a technology roadmap

    aimed at accelerating progress in this area.

    There have, however, been indications of progress. The

    acceleration of J-11B deliveries is largely a result of the

    WS-10A turbofan being delivered in meaningful numbers.

    Furthermore, in early 2013 Chinese state media, citing

    officials at the PLAAF Command Institute, revealed that

    the Y-20 would also soon fly with an indigenous engine

    thought to be the so-called WS-20 high-bypass turbofan

    which would offer improved performance compared

    with the D-30KP2. While previous attempts at engine

    development suggest any such maiden flight would

    significantly pre-date series production of the powerplant,

    this would nevertheless represent progress in an area

    short on success.

    At present the WS-10A remains the only indigenously

    developed engine in series production, with a number of

    other projects, notably the WS-13 the intended

    replacement for the RD-93 delayed. There have been

    numerous indications that the domestic aero-engine

    industry has begun work on a number of powerplants for

    the next generation of Chinese combat aircraft. However,

    it seems likely that progress will remain slow relative towider aerospace manufacturing capabilities. The entry

    into series production of the J-20 may well be dictated

    more by the ability of AVIC to develop and manufacture a

    suitable and reliable powerplant than by the development

    of the airframe and systems of the aircraft.

    Building robust capabilities in this area will also be crucial

    in expanding Chinese exports in the military aerospace

    market, with the lack of control over this key element ofthe supply chain acting as an impediment to

    independence. While Beijing has been keen to promote

    the JF-17 to potential foreign customers in recent years,

    the aircrafts Russian-made RD-93 engine ostensibly

    provides Moscow with a veto over potential sales of the

    aircraft, which in many markets is a competitor for

    Russian offerings. This awkward dynamic has arguably

    been a key reason behind the continued sales of the

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    increasingly technologically obsolete F-7, with final

    deliveries of the most recent F-7BGI variant completed

    during 2013.

    While engine imports continue at a rapid pace, orders for

    foreign-made aircraft have slowed noticeably since 2007

    and are now limited to filling specific PLA requirements

    that cannot, as yet, be met effectively by local industry.

    Of the 138 aircraft ordered from foreign manufacturers in

    the last 10 years, 80% have been Russian-made Mil Mi-

    17 Hip transport helicopter variants purchased to

    address the lack of an indigenous medium helicopter

    design. An assembly line for the type opened in China in

    2008 to provide a further 20 helicopters a year.

    However, fixed-wing imports have slowed significantly

    following the collapse of Chinas order for 30 Il-76TD

    Candid strategic transport and eight Il-78M Midas

    tanker aircraft due to complications relating to the

    aircrafts production facilities. A contract for 10

    refurbished Il-76MD airlifters announced in late 2012

    suggests that, had a viable production line been available,

    significant orders for the type would likely have beenplaced throughout the past decade. However, China now

    seems likely to assess progress in the development of its

    own Y-20 strategic transport before considering the

    purchase of additional Russian-made aircraft.

    Conclusion

    While China has made great strides in aircraft

    development, aircraft systems, production techniques,

    composites, and to a lesser extent engine

    development and manufacture, these capabilities remain

    far from a fully mature state at this stage.

    Furthermore, in a number of these areas, in terms of the

    capabilities of both industry and the PLA, gaps remain.

    The challenge for China in the next decade will not be

    developing new indigenous combat aircraft, but in closing

    the gaps that still exist.

    Nevertheless, given the political will and vast investments

    being made in the aerospace sector, it certainly appears

    to be a matter of when, rather than if, this state of full

    maturity will be achieved.

    This analysis is abridged. The full report was developed

    using programme data and forecasts fromIHS Janes DS

    ForecastandIHS Janes Defence Procurementand

    military inventories information fromIHS Janes Military &

    Security Assessments Intelligence Centre.

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