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China’s Environmental Challenges in the Greatest Socio‐economic Transformation
Gang He
Research Associate, Stanford UniversityProgram on Energy and Sustainable Development
PhD student Energy and Resources Group
BostonSep 18 2010
PhD student, Energy and Resources GroupUniversity of California, Berkeley
http://pesd.stanford.edu • Stanford Universityhttp://pesd.stanford.edu • Stanford University
Sep 18, 2010
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Rising China’s greatest social economic transformation
• Great transformation• Four major social socio‐economic transformation
– Industrialization– Urbanization– Motorization– ModernizationG l i i t t• General socio‐economic target– 2000, well off society– 2020 all round well off society2020, all round well off society– 2050, middle developed countries level
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Start point: huge population with limited resources
• 1.3 billion (0.3 billion US)• Premier Wen’s famous quote:
– Since China has 1.3 billion people, any small individual shortage, multiplied by 1.3 billion, becomes a big, big problem And any considerable amount of financial andproblem. And any considerable amount of financial and material resources, divided by 1.3 billion, becomes a very low per capita level.‐‐ "Turning Your Eyes to China"‐‐Speech by Premier Wen Jiabao at Harvard University (10 December 2003)
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The “3E” framework of the interactive challengesg
Economy
EnergyEducationEducationEnvironment
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Economy: export oriented and energy intensive
• Export‐oriented• Labor intensiveLabor intensive• Energy intensive• Resources intensive
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Chart source: Google Public Data. News source: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/16/business/global/16yuan.html
Energy: Coal dominates China’s energy use
Oil Nuclear Energy
Hydro electric 6%
Nuclear2%
WindOthers
20%
Natural Gas 3%
Nuclear Energy 1%
Hydro17%
%
Coal 70%
Coal‐fired81%
70%
70% of China Primary Energy from CoalS 2007 d f Chi N i l B f S i i 2008
81% Electricity Generated by CoalS 2008 d f Chi El i i C il
Total: 2.65 btce Total: 3427 TWh
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Source: 2007 data from China National Bureau of Statistics, 2008 Source: 2008 data from China Electricity Council
Environment: concentrated in 30 years
• Traditional environmental pollution concentration– Air– Water– Solid waste
• Ecosystem wide environmental degradation• Environment problem as a source of social instability
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Overall environment situation
• Improvement in some areas • Overall degradation failed to be controlled • The situation remains grave • Pressure continues to increase
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Source: China Environmental Strategic Plan 2009.
Air pollution: take acid rain as a case
PH value
No data
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Source: China Environment Strategic Plan 2009.
Water: increasing eutrophication
expansion in
booming in middle and large
lakesexpansion in
middle and large
lakes 8700i l ll l k i
Area
eutro
5000mainly small lakes in
cities Some are middle/large
lakes
(Sq. of lake
ophicatio 占 35%
600small lakes
in cities
km.)
on
accounting for 35%
135
占5%
accounting for 5% increasing trend of eutrophication
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1970s late 1980s early 2000Source: China Environment Strategic Plan 2009.
Solid waste: take E‐waste as a case
• Every day, the world dumps thousands of tons of e‐waste on China, where it ends up polluting communities and harming the public health. At least half of e‐waste collected for “recycling” in North America gets exported, according to environmental groups, and about 80% of that goes to China. g p , gThe United States, where up to 250 million electronics or almost 2.2 millions tons became obsolete in 2005, leads the transboundary hazardous traffictransboundary, hazardous traffic.
‐‐By Michael Zhao
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Source: http://michaelzhao.net/eDump/
Eco‐system: China’s ecological footprint is almost double of its ecological capacityg p y
China’s ecological deficit (1961‐2003)
Ecological deficitEcological reserve
Ecological footprint
Ecological carrying capacity
Global hectare (2003)
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Source: CCICED, WWF. China ecological footprint report. 2008.
Climate change: No island is an island
• Energy security• Climate impact• Common but differentiate responsibilities• International cooperation• The more closely these policies are aligned with China’s own
incentives and the unique context of its energy markets, the better chance they have of realizing the optimal role forbetter chance they have of realizing the optimal role for China’s action in global climate efforts.
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Environment factors are becoming sources of political instabilities p
Dalian oil spill 2010Local riot by pollution 2007Songhua River Pollution 2005
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Source and photo credits: Xinhua News.
Dalian oil spill, 2010Local riot by pollution, 2007 Songhua River Pollution, 2005
Not all bad news
• Stronger pollution control• Expanding natural reserves• Integrated water resources management• Clean energy
– Solar– WindN l– Nuclear
– Others
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Pollution control: De‐sulfuring coal power capacity p y
35000
40000
万千瓦10MW
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
0
5000
10000
15000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009上半年年度
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009上半年
2005-2009年上半年全国脱硫燃煤发电机组装机总量对比图
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Source: China Environment Strategic Plan 2009.
Nature reserves accounting for 15.2% total land territoryy
Number of reservesNumber of reservesArea of reserves (10 tha)
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Source: China Environment Strategic Plan 2009.
China tops new added wind capacity in 2009
25.1
30 Total installed wind capacity
20
25
15GW
5
10
0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Source: Gang He, Richard Morse. Data from China Renewable Energy Industries Association, Global Wind Energy Council
China leads global PV manufacture
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Source: Paula Mints, Navigant Consulting, Inc. Roadmap 2050: a practical guide to a prosperous, low‐carbon Europe.
High speed train and high voltage transmission lines
A CRH train departs Shanghai station. Source: Xinhua.
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Source: Ministry of Railway, 2008
China to build ginormous buses that cars can drive under
• Shenzhen Huashi Future Car‐Parking Equipment • Beijing's Mentougou district will commence building its first
186km of track at year's end
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Source: Beijing News May 28, 2010. http://epaper.bjnews.com.cn/html/2010‐05/28/content_105596.htm?div=‐1
China’s green progress and prospective
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Source: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/china/2010‐03/13/c_13209617.htm
Source: McKinsey, China’s green opportunities.
Solve the environment in socio‐economic transition
• Vision (by CS Kiang)– Innovation– Interdisciplinary – Internationalization– Integration– Integration
• Implementation– Technology innovation– Smarter governance– Corporate social responsibilityCivic society and public participation– Civic society and public participation
– Education: leadership and greenness of next generation– International cooperation: working with China
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Governance – stronger and smarter
• Strong Environment governance: iron hands– Ministry of Environment, March 25, 2008– Regional supervision office
• Smart governance– Market oriented environmental regulation instruments
• Discussion and demonstration of environment tax
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Source: Gang He, China's New Ministry of Environmental Protection Begins to Bark, but Still Lacks in Bitehttp://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/321
Corporate social responsibility(CSR) –corporate citizenp
• Emerging CSR – Corporate to change
• State owned enterprises– Shenhua– State Grid– GuodianP bli P i t P t hi• Public Private Partnership
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Public participation – Political reform
• Xiamen “PX” case– “Walking” for a better environment
• Guangdong Foshan case• Yuanmingyuan public hearing case• Environmental NGOs – climate change as an example• Environment challenges can not be addressed and deployed
without major political reformwithout major political reform
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Source: Gang He. Chinese society and climate change. China Perspectives. 2007.
Things to watch:
• Energy conservation and emission reduction• Two major targets by 2020:
– 40‐45% emission intensity– 15% renewable energy
• Booming of new energy– Wind, solar, nuclear…Oth• Others– Low carbon cities demonstration– Environment exchange carbon exchange setting up theEnvironment exchange, carbon exchange setting up the infrastructure of market oriented tools
– Carbon tax, environment tax
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Conclusions and take home messages
• China is under its greatest social economic transformation and the opportunities lie with challenges
• Population matters: 1.36 billion population is the start point of China’s economy‐energy‐environment problem
• China’s environment challenges is unprecedented: if we can• China s environment challenges is unprecedented: if we can solve China’s problems, we will learn how to solve the world’s problems
• Black cat and/or white cat, all need to be green cats• China is leading a clean energy revolution which needs the
world’s cooperationworld’s cooperation• Work with China for a better world. And the best way to work
with China is engaging China’s core interests
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References
• CS Kiang. Balancing economy and environment. Sustainable development in China.• Jia Feng, Zhang Shiqiu. Commercialization of Environmental Technologies. Beijing, World
Knowledge Press. 2005D id Vi B d idl k l b l i 2010 D id Vi Ri h d M Li i• David Victor. Beyond gridlock on global warming. 2010. David Victor, Richard Morse. Living with coal. 2009.
• Gang He, Richard Morse. Marking carbon offsets work in developing world. PESD. 2010.• Richard Morse, Gang He. The World's Greatest Coal Arbitrage: China's Coal Import Behavior
d I li i f h Gl b l C l M k PESD 2010and Implications for the Global Coal Market. PESD. 2010.• Asia Society, Common Challenge, Collaborative Response: A Roadmap for U.S.‐China
Cooperation on Energy and Climate Change, 2008; Asia Society, Center for American Progress, A Roadmap for U.S.‐China Collaboration on Carbon Capture and Sequestration, 20092009.
• The Climate Group. China’s green revolution. 2008.• Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, China Energy Group.• China Council of International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED).• Ministry of Environment al Protection. Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning.• National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).• News from New York Times, Times, China Daily, WSJ, Caixin, etc.
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Th k !Thanks!
Q ti d t lQuestions and comments are welcome:
G HGang Hesteel.he [at] gmail.com
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