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Interim Results Presentation
August 2013
China Shanshui Cement Group Limited
Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by China Shanshui Cement Group Limited (“Shanshui” or “the Company”) and the Company is solely responsible for its contents.
The information presented or contained in these materials is subject to change without notice and its accuracy is not guaranteed.
Neither the presentation nor any of the information contained therein constitutes an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire or invitation to purchases or subscribe for any securities of the Company in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity, nor may it or any part of it form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract, commitment or investment decision whatsoever.
2
Section
I
II
III
Agenda
Review of 2013 Interim Results
Future Outlook
Q & A
3
2013 Interim Results Review
4
Key Financial Results
1H 2013 1H 2012 YoY Growth
Sales Revenue (RMB MM) 7,068.7 7,378.0 (4.2%)
Cement 5,756.4 5,978.3 (3.7%)
Clinker 801.9 972.4 (17.5%)
Concrete 283.5 162.6 74.3%
Others 226.9 264.8 (14.3%)
Shandong Region 4,719.8 5,106.5 (7.6%)
Northeast Region 1,897.2 1,968.9 (3.6%)
Shanxi Region 318.0 294.7 7.9%
Xinjiang Region 133.8 7.9 1591.1%
Gross Profit (RMB MM) 1,601.6 1,835.9 (12.8%)
EBITDA (RMB MM) 1,655.9 2,015.6 (17.8%)
Net Profit (RMB MM) 360.3 758.4 (52.5%) Net Profit Attributable to the Equity Shareholders of the Company (RMB MM) 347.6 727.7 (52.2%)
Basic Earnings per Share (RMB) 0.12 0.26 (53.8%)
Gross Profit Margin (%) 22.7% 24.9%
Net Profit Margin (%) 5.1% 10.3%
5
Notes: (1)EBITDA = Net income + finance costs + tax expenses + fixed assets depreciation + amortization (2) Net Profit Margin = Net income before deduction of minority interests / Sales Revenue
1H 2012 1H 2011 YoY Growth
Capacity (MM tonne)
Cement 92.6 85.8 7.9%
Clinker 40.4 39.0 3.7%
Sales Volume (MM tonne)
Cement and Clinker 27.2 25.2 7.8%
Cement 23.0 21.0 9.3%
Clinker 4.2 4.2 0.6%
Concrete (MM m3) 1.0 0.6 59.5%
Unit Selling Price (RMB / tonne or m3)
Cement 250.5 284.3 (11.9%)
Clinker 190.8 232.7 (18.0%)
Concrete 293.8 268.8 9.3%
Cement Regional Unit Selling Price (RMB/ tonne)
Shandong Region 243.7 280.1 (13.0%)
Northeast Region 274.0 301.4 (9.1%)
Shanxi Region 218.6 234.6 (6.8%)
Xinjiang Region 228.6 214.8 6.4%
Key Operating Results
6
Financial Overview
11,854.1
16,862.0 16,161.0
7,378.0 7,068.7
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
2010 2011 2012 1H2012 1H2013
Sales revenue EBITDA (1)
Gross profit Net profit (2)
(RMB MM) (RMB MM)
(RMB MM) (RMB MM)
Notes: (1)EBITDA = Net income + finance costs + tax expenses + fixed assets depreciation + amortization (2)Net income before deduction of minority interests
7
1,004.9
2,311.71,603.8
758.4360.3
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2010 2011 2012 1H2012 1H2013Net Profit Net Profit Margin
8.5% 13.7% 9.9% 10.3% 5.1%
2,533.7
4,801.4 4,264.6
2,015.6 1,655.9
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
2010 2011 2012 1H2012 1H2013EBITDA EBITDA Margin
21.4% 28.5% 26.4% 27.3% 23.4%
2,550.1
5,079.14,111.3
1,835.9 1,601.6
0
3,000
6,000
9,000
2010 2011 2012 1H2012 1H2013Gross Profit Gross Profit Margin
21.5% 30.1% 25.4% 24.9% 22.7%
Shandong69.2%
Northeast26.7%
Shanxi4.0%
Xinjiang0.1%
Outstanding Performance in Shanxi & Xinjiang Regions
The proportion of sales contributed by Shanxi and Xinjiang Regions to total sales increased by 2.3 percentage points YoY. This is mainly due to:
The commencement of operations for operating companies in Shanxi and Xinjiang contributed to more production volume
Regional unit selling price of Cement in Xinjiang Region increased 6.4%
Unit selling price of Cement in Shandong and Northeast Regions fell due to the slowdown in growth of fixed asset investment and cement overcapacity of neighboring provinces
Sales breakdown by area – 1H 2012 Sales breakdown by area – 1H 2013
8
Shandong66.8%
Northeast26.8%
Shanxi4.5%
Xinjiang1.9%
1H 2013 1H 2012
RMB MM %
Revenue RMB MM %
Revenue Percentage
point change
Total cost of sales 5,467.0 77.3% 5,542.2 75.1% 2.2 points
Raw materials 1,679.2 23.8% 1,660.3 22.5% 1.3 points
Coal 1,472.5 20.8% 1,802.0 24.4% -3.6 points
Power 928.5 13.1% 783.4 10.6% 2.5 points
Depreciation and amortisation 458.6 6.5% 463.8 6.3% 0.2 points
Others 928.3 13.1% 832.7 11.3% 1.8 points
Benefited by 17.5% year-on-year drop of average purchasing price of coal to 577.2 RMB/ton, coal cost reduced to 1.47 billion in the first half of 2013, representing 20.8% of the sale revenue.
As for cost reduction, output of residual heat power generation reached 498 million KWH in the first half of 2013, which has reduced the cost of clinker by RMB 133 million.
9
Effective cost control due to strengthening internal management
During the reporting period, the proportion of sales and marketing expenses to revenue increased by 0.8 percentage points compared with the corresponding period of 2012.
The proportion of administrative expenses to revenue increased by 3.0 percentage points compared with previous year mainly due to the production halts in the first three months of 2013.
The proportion of finance costs to revenue increased by 0.7 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
10
Steady Operating Efficiency
1H 2013 1H 2012
RMB MM %
Revenue RMB MM %
Revenue Percentage
point change
Sales and marketing expenses 177.9 2.5% 127.7 1.7% 0.8 points
Administrative expenses 530.4 7.5% 335.5 4.5% 3.0 points
Finance costs 469.0 6.6% 435.9 5.9% 0.7 points
75.8%71.5%
77.8% 71.1%24.2%
28.5%22.2%
28.9%
7,399
11,465 13,466
15,182
50.4% 50.9%
56.9% 58.2%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2011 2012 1H2013
Long-term borrowings Short-term borrowings
Leverage ratio
2.9x
2.4x
3.2x 3.3x
3.9x
2.5x
1.8x
2.9x
2.4x
3.5x
0
2
4
2010 2011 2012 1H2012 1H2013
Total Debt to EBITDA Net Debt to EBITDA
(RMB MM)
Debt Structure
(1) (1)
Healthy Capital Structure
Liquidity ratio
Notes: (1) Based on LTM EBITDA (2) Long-term Borrowings = Long-term interest-bearing borrowings, less current portion + corporate bond + shareholders loan, less current portion (3) Short-term Borrowings = Short-term and current portion of long-term interest-bearing borrowings + current portion of shareholders loan (4) Leverage ratio = Net Debt / (Net Debt + Equity attributable to Equity shareholders of the Company + minority interest), Net Debt = Total debt – cash and cash equivalent
(4)
(2) (3)
11
1,789.1
1,549.3
1,930.1
1,314.7
228.3
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2010 2011 2012 1H2012 1H2013
Effective Working Capital Control
Working capital days (1)
(RMB MM)
38.8
47.4
56.3
67.8
60.3
11.6 9.3 11.7 14.5 16.6
64.7 65.7
73.9
81.9
90.4
0
20
40
60
80
100
2010 2011 2012 1H2012 1H2013
Inventory DaysDays of sales outstandingDays of purchase outstanding
Notes: (1) Inventory days = Average inventories / Cost of sales *182.5 days; Days of sales outstanding= Average trade receivables / Revenue *182.5 days; Days of purchase outstanding= Average trade and bill payables / Cost of sales *182.5 days
Operating cash flow
(Days)
12
13
Future Outlook
14
China’s Fixed Asset Investment Targeted to Growth Steadily(2)
(RMB Tn)
17.322.5
27.8 31.136.5
43.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012A 2013E
7.8% 7.8%
3.1% 3.1%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2012A 2013E
China Leads the Global Economic Recovery (1)
Total Cement Production in China (3)
(MM tonne)
(%)
1,6481,870
2,085 2,210
994 1,096
0
600
1,200
1,800
2,400
3,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 1H20121H2013
Investment Plan - Shandong/Liaoning/Shanxi/Inner Mongolia/Xinjiang
China’s Continued Economy Growth Ensures Demand for Cement
China GDP Growth Rate World GDP Growth Rate
Notes: (1) IMF (2) NBS (3) NBS
Shandong 2013 Investment Plan 2013 government public investment: RMB15.42 Bn, including RMB1.0 Bn to be used in local railway construction,
and RMB12.44 Bn to be used in construction and maintenance of highways, passenger stations, ports and airports. 2013 water conservancy investment: RMB 34 Bn, with c,61,000 projects planned to be constructed, new affordable homes for “Twelfth Five-Year”: 700k units; for 2013, c.236k and 170k units will commence and complete construction respectively.
Liaoning 2013 Investment Plan Transportation infrastructure investment: RMB38.52 Bn, with total expressway mileage exceeding 4,000 km, 630 km
major roads to be upgraded and 3,000 km rural roads to be constructed; Bohai Channel passageway plan to be finalized, with total investment c.RMB260 Bn; water conservancy investment: over RMB20.0 Bn, with 6,309 projects in progress, new affordable homes for 2013: c.173k units
Shanxi 2013 Investment Plan 2013 highway construction investment: RMB30 Bn, including RMB23 Bn in expressways, RMB4 Bn in national and
provincial roads and RMB3.0 Bn in rural roads; 2,185 km highway will be constructed, including 685 km expressways; 2013 new affordable homes: 180k units to commence and complete construction, and RMB34 Bn to be invested
Inner Mongolia 2013 Investment Plan 2013 railway construction investment: RMB40 Bn, with 5,653 km of major railways to be constructed; highway
construction investment: RMB 60Bn (targeting at RMB65 Bn), with 15,000 km highway to be constructed, including 3,117 km expressway and 2,600 km first-class highway, new affordable homes for 2013, c.174,500 and 180,000 units will commence and complete construction respectively
Xinjiang 2013 Investment Plan 2013 transportation FAI: RMB35-40 Bn, including RMB16.8 Bn railway construction investment
15
Cement Industry Benefits from the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”
I II
III IV
Robust Demand Driven by Investment in Fixed Assets Consolidation Encouraged by Industry Policy
Cement Demand Supported by China’s Urbanization Process
Vertical Integration and Better Utilization of Resources Supported by Government
The Chinese government encourages cement enterprises to extend upstream and downstream, produce and market downstream products such as cement products, premixed concretes, dry-mixed sand mortar, coarse and fine aggregates
Chinese government encourages cement enterprises to make comprehensive use of resources in order to promote energy conservation and emission reduction
In July 2013, China Cement Association published “Measures for Promoting Corporate Mergers and Reorganizations in Cement Industry,” advocating for the active policy and financial support for the energy-saving and environment friendly projects of companies undergoing restructuring
In 2012, Ministry of Environmental Protection issued drafts of two policies regarding environmental standard in cement industry for public review, indicating China will raise technical standards in environment protection in cement industry
At the beginning of 2013, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology published the “Opinions on Promoting Corporate Mergers and Reorganizations in Key Industries”, listing cement as one of the nine key industries in which M&A is strongly encouraged
In July 2013, China Cement Association published the “Measures for Promoting Corporate Mergers and Reorganizations in Cement Industry,” supporting the restructuring of large cement companies, with the targets of raising production concentration ratio of the top ten cement enterprises to over 35%, and developing 5 fully vertically integrated groups with capacity over 100 million tonnes
In July 2013, the State Council issued guidance mandating the differential treatment in financing policies for cement and other industries with severe overcapacity issues, including providing credit support for the acquisition activities of larger companies and putting stringent limit on loans to companies with obsolete capacity
In June 2013, the State Council approved the “National Highway Network Planning (2013-2030),” targeting to increase total mileage of national highway network to 400,000 km by 2030
In 2013, RMB690 Bn railway FAI is planned, RMB520 Bn of which will be spent on basic construction and infrastructures; 5,200 km of railway will be built (1)
According to the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, another 36 million new affordable homes will be built in China
During 2013, another 6.3 million affordable homes will be built (2)
In November 2012, the 18th CPC National Congress clearly set out that China will promote its “new pattern” urbanization process
At the 2012 year end, the Central Economic Work Conference further stated that it will be one of China’s key economic focus areas in 2013 to accelerate the process of urbanization
In June 2013, the NDRC proposed to develop 10 new regional urban agglomerations other than Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River delta areas
In July 2013, the Chinese government announced the plan to transform 10 million shantytown households
Notes: (1) Ministry of Railway (2) Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development
61.7%
3.1%
-8.3% -7.9% -5.4% -9.5%-40.0%-20.0%
0.0%20.0%40.0%60.0%80.0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 1H20121H2013
1. Increasing Government Investment into Infrastructure – In 2013, China investments in fixed assets are expected
to increase 18% Y-o-Y, indicating FAI will likely reach RMB43 trillion for the year of 2013
2. Urbanization-related Constructions Will Pick Up Significantly – Urbanization will be one of the key focus areas in China’s
economic development in the year of 2013 and the next few years
– The transformation of 10 million shantytown households and the development of 10 metropolitan areas have been promoted as targets of the urbanization process
3. Key relevant themes of China’s “12th Five-Year Plan” − Affordable housing for RMB1.4 trillion − To strengthen rural infrastructure construction − Water-conservation projects for RMB4 trillion
16
Source: China Building Material Website, China Cement Association Report, Digital Cement
China Cement Investment Declined Continuously
Source: NDRC, China Cement Association Report, Digital Cement
Increasing Demand Disciplined Supply
Cement Price Recovery Realized By Improved Supply/Demand Dynamics
250300350400450500550
1/2011 4/2011 6/2011 9/2011 12/2011 3/2012 6/2012 9/2012 12/2012 3/2013 7/2013
North Northeast Northwest East Central South Southwest Southeast
Well Positioned to Benefit from Favorable Market Dynamics
(%) Y-o-Y comparison of cement fixed asset investment
Source: Digital Cement
(RMB / tonne)
4.9
20.7
5.4 5.4 4.08.3
1.4 1.4 1.8 1.8
8.7
14.2
16.316.312.6
12.8
2.0 2.2 1.6 1.6
37.6
41.9
2.98.0
24.323.1
5.2 5.6 2.9 2.9
51.1
76.7
24.629.7
40.944.2
8.6 9.26.3 6.3
0
20
40
60
80
2010 Actual Closure2010 Target Closure
2011 Target Closure 2011 Actual Closure
2012 Target Closure 2012 Actual Closure
139 140147 150 154
75 75
4147 48
57 57
24 2521 2533
3947
19 20
3443
5464
59
25 2617 20 24
3030
1520
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1H2012 1H2013
Shandong Liaoning Shanxi Inner Mongolia Xinjiang
17 17
Capacity Closures Will Constrain Supply
Capacity Closures Will Constrain Supply Cement Production Under Effective Control
Shandong Liaoning Shanxi Inner Mongolia
Xinjiang
(1)
(MM tonne) (MM tonne)
Source: NDRC, Digital Cement Source: China Building Materials Industry Association, Digital Cement
Note: (1) 2012 target capacity closure is used as the proxy for 2012 actual closure since the actual closure data is not available
18
Capex Plan
Notes: (1) Capex = Purchase of property, plant and equipment + Purchase of land use rights + Purchase of intangible assets + Purchase of other fixed assets + Acquisition of subsidiaries and associates (2) Capacity as of 2012 year end and June 30, 2013
(RMB MM)
Capital Expenditure (1) Cement Capacity (2)
2,901
3,409
4,380
1,560
0
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
2010 2011 2012 1H2013
(MM tonne)
89.6 92.6
0
30
60
90
120
2012 1H2013
19
2013 Strategy Outlook
Take flexible marketing strategies based on market segmentation, consolidate core markets, explore new markets, enhance market dominance, and increase the proportion of high grade cement. Meanwhile, while fully leveraging on the port advantages, the Group will expand exports and to build itself up as an international brand.
Expand the scope of centralized procurement of general materials to minimize costs, highlight the operation cost appraisal to further reduce the production costs, gradually migrate the production, sales, purchasing, and other information into an integrated information management system
Continue to carry out strategic research in key provinces with the focus on consolidation and reorganization and strengthen the regional control advantage. Establishing itself first in Shandong, the Group will accelerate the development of the industrial product chain including aggregate and concrete to foster new profit growth points
Concentrate on building systemic mechanisms of talent recruitment, training, selection and assessment, put more emphasis on ethics education and skills training of staff and pay more attention to the training and breeding of knowledgeable, hardworking young talents, to build up a team that adapts to the future development of the Group
Highlight the "leading" role in sales
Reinforce internal control and company management
Improve the industrial strategic layout
Widen and deepen the talent pool
20
Thank You Q&A