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1
China Real Estate Market
Review and Outlook
China Index Academy
May. 2018
2
CHINA INDEX ACADEMY
Outline
1. 1. Review: Continued tightening of policies, Market volume drops
while price increases
2. 2. Outlook: Short-term regulation continues,Market differentiation;
Mid- and Long-term market still have great potential.
3
CHINA INDEX ACADEMY
Restriction Policies Tightened
the market concealed madness
4
23
44
23
14
610
26
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Yangtze River
Delta City Group
Pearl River Delta
City Group
Central and
Western Key Cities
Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei City Group
Distribution of cities with tightened policies since 2016
Policy Review
◆2016-2018 (to date):
95 cities above the prefecture level(about 300 policies)
42 county-level cities(about 42 policies).
Around 30 cities issued relevant regulatory policies in
this March, April and May.
Hainan and Hebei were controlled comprehensively at
the provincial level.
Number of monthly Policies
in cities above the
Prefectural levelNumber of
policies issued
monthly in
country level
cities
5
Financial and credit policies play an
important role in regulation and
control, and will continue to tighten
the situation in the later period!
Financial
and
credit
policies
2016: Strict Control of Illegal Internet
Financial Business
2016-2017: Lower financial leverage
2016-2017: Differential credit
Increase payment ratio
2017 to now: Upward house purchase
loan interest rate
2018-2020: Financial risk prevention
and Lower financial leverage
Control of house prices
Demand
Housing Purchase Limits
Housing
Sales Limits
Housing
Loans Limits
Supply
Increase in
land supply
Set more restrictions in Land transfer
Rectifying the sales market
Housing
Price Limits
Assure basic needs are satisfied
Policy Review
6Real Estate Related Policy in the Two Conferences
Housing
system
Financial
regulation
Real estate
taxLong-acting
mechanism
Urban
agglomerations
Policy Review: The 19th National Congress of the Communist
Party of China
7
Policy tone
Short term:
strict implementationin 2018, control baseon classification
Medium term:
financial supervision isstrengthened, leverageis reduced, and thefinancial environment inthe industry is tight andunchanged.
Long-term:
Real Estate Tax Expedited and deepen Housing System reform
Promoting the Healthy Development
of the Real Estate Market
A steady and neutral monetary policy
2018.4.23
Political Bureau of the Central Committee
Policy Review
8
2018-2020:"new housing reform cycle"
and major changes will take place in the
industry pattern.
Lease and sell;
Real estate tax;
Differential regulation
BUrbanization
Regional development
strategy for development;
Guangdong, Hong Kong and
Macau Tai Wan District;
New urbanization
A
Future Real Estate Market Patterns
The real estate market in first and second-tier cities
tends to be stable, and the real estate market in third and
fourth-tier cities in urban agglomerations will usher in
development opportunities.
Long-acting
mechanism
Policy Review
9
14194
0.43%
涨幅创新高Figure: Average price and ring ratio of 100-cities from 2011 to April 2018
Experience 37 consecutive months of raise;
Price was stabilized after regulation, and the monthly increase rate keeps within 1 % for 18 consecutive
months;
2017 cumulative increase rate: 7.15%;
January-April 2018 Cumulative increase rate:1.63%;
House Price
10
Figure: Trends in the prices of newly built houses in various cities since January 2013
TIME
Pearl
River
Delta(15)
Yangtze
River
Delta(26)
Bohai
Rim(20)
North
west(9)
North
east(7)
Middle
part(14)
Southw
est(9)
2011 4.95% 4.91% 6.34% 7.45% 5.86% 6.53% 4.63%
2012 -1.74% -4.18% 0.09% 0.72% 0.74% 0.78% -1.12%
2013 12.84% 5.71% 9.94% 7.29% 5.46% 9.18% 6.58%
2014 -3.81% -5.61% -1.90% -5.46% -6.14% -4.50% -5.27%
2015 5.54% 1.07% 2.14% -2.58% -2.41% 1.95% -3.45%
2016 22.02% 16.08% 13.06% 2.39% -0.60% 12.97% 6.07%
2017 8.00% 9.00% 10.05% 7.43% 9.72% 10.43% 14.14%
2018:1-4 1.95% 2.17% 2.19% 2.27% 2.59% 3.40% 4.12%
-2%
-1%
-1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
13-04
13-06
13-08
13-10
13-12
14-02
14-04
14-06
14-08
14-10
14-12
15-02
15-04
15-06
15-08
15-10
15-12
16-02
16-04
16-06
16-08
16-10
16-12
17-02
17-04
17-06
17-08
17-10
17-12
18-02
18-04
一线城市 二线城市 三线城市
First-tier
cities
Second-
tier city
Third-tier
city
0.80%
2.19%
2.57%
9.03%
1.06%
0.05%
2.29%
3.31%2.59%
2.88%
3.73%3.05%
2016:1-4 2017:1-4 2018:1-4 2016:1-4 2017:1-4 2018:1-4 2016:1-4 2017:1-4 2018:1-4
House Price
11
Figure: Monthly turnover trend of 50 representative urban commercial residential houses from May 2015 to April 2018
National Commercial Housing:2017 Cumulative sales area is 16.9 Billions of
square meters , Growth y-o-y 7.7% , A record high in scale.
Commodity housing of 50 Key cities: January-April 2018, Average monthly sales area is
2553 Square meters , Decline y-o-y 14.5%↓;
15/05
15/06
15/07
15/08
15/09
15/10
15/11
15/12
16/01
16/02
16/03
16/04
16/05
16/06
16/07
16/08
16/09
16/10
16/11
16/12
17/01
17/02
17/03
17/04
17/05
17/06
17/07
17/08
17/09
17/10
17/11
17/12
18/01
18/02
18/03
18/04
万平方米
月度成交面积 1-4月月均成交 单月同比
House Demand
12
Figure: April 2010-April 2018 Average monthly sales area of representative urban commercial residential buildings
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
万平方米
一线 二线 三线
House Demand
January-April 2018 Average monthly sales area
Decline y-o-y 36.1%↓
( Beijing and Shanghai )
Decline y-o-y 16.5%↓
( Haikou: Decline 80% ↓
Tianjin 、Xiamen Decline 40% ↓ )
Decline y-o-y 26.3%↓
( Quanzhou : Growth 80%
Yangzhou Growth 20% )
13
Housing Stock
Figure: Average prices of housing stock in the main urban areas of the top ten cities and the trend of the rise and fall of the ring ratio
Figure: The number of housing stock transactions in the main urban areas of the top ten cities and the trend of y-o-y
increase and decrease
January-April 2018 ,Cumulative increase rate:
0.08%↑,
Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin fell again in April.
2017, Cumulative increase rate:8.03%↑
DemandPrice
数据来源:CREIS中指数据,fdc.fang.com
元/
平方米
十大城市均价 环比
万套
十大城市成交量(左) 同比增长率(右)
January-April 2018, Sales: 307300 units
Decline y-o-y :14.58% ↓ ,Beijing Decline y-o-y :40% ↓.
2017, Sales: 1002000 units, Decline y-o-y :35% ↓
Beijing, Shanghai Decline y-o-y :50% ↓
14
Housing enterprises
In 2017, Number of real estate enterprises with sales over ¥ 10 billion :144,
Market share over 60% ;
From January to April 2018, the average sales of enterprises with sales over ¥ 10 billion is
¥ 39.5 billion;the average sales of Country Garden, Evergrande, and Vanke is
¥ 221.69 billion .
55005238 5151
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
碧桂园
万科
恒大
融创
保利
绿地
中海
龙湖
华夏幸福
绿城
金地
华润置地
新城
招商
泰禾
万达
销售额 同比增长率
Figure: Sales of 100 Billion Housing Enterprises in 2017
15
Housing Enterprises: China Real Estate Top 100 Companies
2016China's top 100
housing companies
Average sales
5.87Billion
48Billion
1.4Trillion
11.76Trillion
2016New housing in
the United Statessales volume
2016Top 100 housing companies in the
United StatesAverage income
2016Chinese
commercial housing
sales volume
The market share of China's
top 100 housing companies
will be higher:
The top 10 companies in Japan and
Hong Kong already account for only 40
% and more than 80 % of the total.
16
CHINA INDEX ACADEMY
Future Trends in The Real Estate Market
17
6 Modules
binding Fang.com Big data
platform resources
22 equations
60 indexes
1000 Multiple Data Items
20 years historical data
2018 Market Forecast: The economy, income, policy, currency,
capital and population are the main external factors affecting the
real estate market
Data Source: China Index Academy Research Institute
Commodity housing
demand
Commodity housing
price
Commodity housing
supply
Developing
Investment
Urban
population
New
Currency
Enterprise
funds
Money
supply
Resident
incomePolicy
Economic
growth
0.7 0.3 0.6
0.40.60.6
0.2
0.2
Land
Demand
0.3
Figure: Main External Factors Affecting Real Estate Market
18
The economy : A good start and expected to perform weaker
than the first quarter, but the overall volatility was small
Figure: Growth trend of three major demand since the second half of 2010
数据来源:CREIS中指数据,fdc.fang.com
In the first
quarter
Industrial production, investment, exports and other economic indicators have all
accelerated. GDP grew by 6.8 % y-o-y.
Supply-side reforms continually push the domestic economy toward high-quality
development.
In the second
quarter
Industrial production and consumer consumption will continue to grow rapidly, and
uncertainties such as investment and exports may affect the economic
performance. However, the overall volatility is not expected to be large.
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
消费品零售总额累计同比 固定资产投资累计同比 出口累计同比
Total retail sales of consumer goods
Investment in fixed assets
export
19
The total transaction volume on "Double 11" shopping festival in 2017 reached 168.2 billion yuan, with an
increase of 39.4 %, surpassed the "Cyber Monday" in the United States as the world's most important
and largest online shopping festival.
The New Economy Plate is brewing: Upgrade of
Consumption Injects New Vitality
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Figure: Total sales of social retail products in China since 2015 Figure: Total turnover of "Double Eleven" Alipay since 2009
1682.7
267%
90%
58% 60%
32%39%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2009年 2010年 2011年 2012年 2013年 2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年
双十一支付宝总交易额(亿元) 增长率
20
The government's support for innovation is constantly being strengthened, and Premier Li Keqiang has
continuously set the stage for "public innovation and entrepreneurship".
China ranked 22nd in the new 2017 world innovation index. According to CB Insight, China is the country
with the largest number of unicorns outside the United States.
资料来源:CB Insight资料来源:MIT Technology Review
Table: 2017 World Innovation Index ListFigure: New "Unicorn" company distribution over the years
0%
12%
28% 29%36%
75%
62%
49% 43%
41%
25% 26% 23%28%
23%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2013年 2014年 2015年 2016年 2017年
中国 美国 其他国家
The New Economy Plate is brewing: Chinese technology
begins to take the leading place
21
Monetary policy continues to be neutral and M2 growth rate
fluctuates in the low range
Figure: Growth trend of M1 and M2 in China since March 2008
数据来源:CREIS中指数据,fdc.fang.com
Financial
environment
In March 2018, the M2 grew 8.2 % y-o-y and recovered slightly for two consecutive
months; indicating that financial deleveraging and strict supervision continued to
advance, and that the internal flow of funds in the financial sector remained poor.
Monetary
policy
direction
In the first quarter, when the Fed started raising interest rates for the first time in
the year, the central bank immediately raised the rate of reverse repurchase.
Directly increase the financing costs of the real estate industry. The goal of neutral
regulation of monetary policy will not change in the short term.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
08-03
08-05
08-07
08-09
08-11
09-01
09-03
09-05
09-07
09-09
09-11
10-01
10-03
10-05
10-07
10-09
10-11
11-01
11-03
11-05
11-07
11-09
11-11
12-01
12-03
12-05
12-07
12-09
12-11
13-01
13-03
13-05
13-07
13-09
13-11
14-01
14-03
14-05
14-07
14-09
14-11
15-01
15-03
15-05
15-07
15-09
15-11
16-01
16-03
16-05
16-07
16-09
16-11
17-01
17-03
17-05
17-07
17-09
17-11
18-01
18-03
MI同比 M2同比
22
Financing difficulty of real estate enterprises has risen
significantly, the pressure on residents to buy houses also increase
continually
Figure: Trends in the balance of loans, real estate loans and individual housing
loans in China since 2013Figure: China's first and second mortgage interest rates since February 2016
数据来源:CREIS中指数据,fdc.fang.com
Loan growth fell: the balance of loans for real estate and personal home purchases at the end of
2017 was 6.1 、14.5 percentage points lower than at the end of 2016.
Loan interest rate is raising:According to financial 360 data, in March 2018, the National loan
interest rate for the first and second home buyer rose slightly to 5.51 % and 5.86 % respectively.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
0
10
20
30
40
万亿
房地产贷款余额 个人购房贷款余额
各项贷款余额增速(右) 房地产贷款余额增速(右)
个人购房贷款余额增速(右)
4%
5%
6%
16-02
16-03
16-04
16-05
16-06
16-07
16-08
16-09
16-10
16-11
16-12
17-01
17-02
17-03
17-04
17-05
17-06
17-07
17-08
17-09
17-10
17-11
17-12
18-01
18-02
18-03
首套房平均利率 二套房平均利率
mortgage rates for first home buyer
mortgage rates for second home buyer
23数据来源:中国指数研究院测算
• GDP grows 6.7 % ;
Research assumptions
Assumption 1
• M2 grows 10.1% 、 RMB Loan
Balance growth 11.9%, New loans
About 14.2 trillion yuan ;
• Baseline interest rate unchanged in
2018, Tighter credit policies in hot
cities ;
Forecast results
15.0~15.4 Billions of square meters,
-11.3%~-9.3%↓
7892~8050 yuan per square meter ,
0%~2.0%↑
11.5~11.8 Trillions of yuan ,
5.1%~7.1%↑
18.7~19.0 Billions of square meters,
4.5%~6.5%↑
Commodity housing
Demand
Real estate
development
Investment
• Due to the city's policy, it urged the
real estate market to return to
stability and rationality.
2018 Market Forecast: Transaction falls, price stabilizes, new
construction and investment grow in middle and low speed
Assumption 2
Assumption 3
Assumption 4
Commodity housing
Price
Commodity housing
Supply
24
图:2017年-2018年3月各线城市商品房销售面积同比增速
数据来源:CREIS中指数据,fdc.fang.com
Sales will fall overall, greater regulatory pressure for second-tier
cities
limited room for adjustment, The market
gradually stabilizes
Regulatory policies are emerging, and some
cities are under downward pressure.
Sales area, sales growth continued to slow
or showed a slight decline
First-tier
cities
2018
2017First-tier
cities
Second-tier
city
Third-tier
city
sales
Area
0.5Billions of square
meters
(-29.2%↓)
5.5Billions of square
meters
(1.5%↑)
10.9Billions of square
meters
(13.9%↑)
sales
volume
1.3Trillions of yuan
(-26.1%↓)
5.6Trillions of yuan
(13.6%↑)
6.5Trillions of yuan
(27.7%↑)
January-April 2018
National sales area :4.2 Billions of square meters,y-o-y
1.3%↑ National sales :3.6 Trillions of yuan, y-o-y 10.3%↑
2017
-11.0%
-18.8%
-25.3% -25.5%-28.1% -28.2%
-30.3% -31.1% -30.2% -29.2% -30.1%
8.8%4.7% 3.8%
8.1%6.0% 4.7% 2.9%
0.8% 1.2% 1.5% 0.7%
29.0%25.7% 24.5% 24.5%
22.5% 21.0%18.1%
15.8% 14.7% 13.9%
7.3%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2017:1-3 2017:1-4 2017:1-5 2017:1-6 2017:1-7 2017:1-8 2017:1-9 2017:1-10 2017:1-11 2017:1-12 2018:1-3
一线城市 二线城市 三四线城市
First-tier cities
Second-tier city
Third-tier city
Second-tier
cities
Third-tier
cities
25
Price: the number of cities implement regulatory policy
will increase continually, the overall price of the country
will remain stable
数据来源:CREIS中指数据,fdc.fang.com
Figure: The price index of 100- CitIes and the sales area of
commercial housing in April 2012-2018 trend y-o-yPolicy regulation
restricted purchase, limited lending and limited sale
Moderately Neutral Monetary Policy and Tightening
Credit Environment
Market factors
• First tier city: Sales are back on the mend, prices
are holding steady.
• Second tier city : Some of them are under
downward pressure and prices are facing
adjustment.
• Third tier city:Sales growth slowed and prices
stabilized or edged down
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%百城价格指数单月同比(左) 商品房销售面积同比(右)
26
2018-2020: The total demand for new housing exceeds
5.5 billion square meters, commercial housing is about 3.5
billion square meters.
Index2001-2005
Total
2001-2005
Composite
growth
rate(%)
2006-2010
Total
2006-2010
Composite
growth
rate(%)
2011-2015
Total
2011-2015
Composite
growth
rate(%)
2016-2017
Total
2018-2020
Total
Sale area
(亿M2)15.7 24.5 36.4 13.5 52.6 3.3 28.2 35.4
数据来源:中国指数研究院测算,fdc.fang.com
① Residential demand from the new urban population is the highest, accounting for
about 40.1 % , due to the slowdown in urbanization, this share is declining ;
② The proportion of improved housing demand based on the improvement of the
quality of life will remain stable, accounting for about 26.2 %;
③ The proportion of needs from demolition and renovation will continue to increase,
accounting for about 33.7 % 。
Commercial
housing
Demand
3.5 billion
square meters