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CHINA MACRO OUTLOOKCHINA MACRO OUTLOOKDRY BULK DIVERGENCE & CAPESIZE COMEBACKDRY BULK DIVERGENCE & CAPESIZE COMEBACK
www.commodore-research.comwww.commodore-research.com
-Chinese Steel Production-Emergence of China’s Middle Class-Geographical Development Trends
-Decline in Capesize Deliveries
-Increase in Panamax Deliveries
Major Topics
-Established March 2010
-Focus on Dry Bulk Market
-China National Shipping Service
-Dry Bulk Report Subscription
-Various Consulting Services
About Commodore
Chinese Steel Production
Chinese Steel Production (March 2009 - March 2013)
Chinese Steel Production
www.commodore-research.com
Geographical Development
www.commodore-research.com
Developed East
Emerging Central
Revitalized Northeast
Western Development
True Story
Geographical Development
www.commodore-research.com
Developed East
Emerging Central
Revitalized Northeast
Western Development
Chinese Iron Ore Production & Imports
Chinese Iron Ore Production (March 2009 - March 2013)
Chinese Iron Ore Production
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Chinese Iron Ore Imports
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Chinese Iron Ore Imports (April 2009 - April 2013)
Capesize Comeback
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CAPE Deliveries Scrapping Net Addition
Jan’12 30 2 28
Feb’12 18 6 12
Mar’12 17 6 11
Apr’12 27 10 17
May’12 22 12 10
Jun’12 30 8 22
Jul’12 20 6 14
Aug’12 8 8 0
Sep’12 16 10 6
Oct’12 10 6 4
Nov’12 7 6 1
Dec’12 5 0 5
Average Daily Capesize Rates (February 2012 - May 2013)
Capesize Rates
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Capesize Easing Has Begun
Year Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize
2009 160 185 110 115
2010 228 292 172 214
2011 290 326 274 259
2012 289 303 370 210
2013 (p) 240 240 375 100
Deliveries (2009 – 2012); Commodore Projection (2013)
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Outlook-Improvement in Capesize Rates in H2
-Decline in Panamax Rates in H2-Continued Growth of the Middle Class-Ongoing Development of Western China
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-Robust Demand for Iron Ore Imports
Thank You
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