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China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Out-of-the-Box Emerging Market Made for YOU!Out-of-the-Box Emerging Market Made for YOU!
Hi Needs, Lo Competition, Lo Cost Entry, No Hi-Tech Hurdles!
Jim Cook, China enthusiast since 1985 Technology Entrepreneur
On the occasion of : China Business Challenge
on : November 10, 2013
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 2 of 15
November 10, 2013
I told my professor friends: Tokyo 1950 = Beijing 1980; Japan’s CAGR = 6% … China’s will be = 12%
Do the Math: Beijing 2010 = Tokyo 2010 That is now history.
The opportunity has been fantastic! Wish it could be repeated?
It will be, but you’ll need insight and guts, just as back then …
Back in 1985! Omg, I wasn’t even Born!
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 3 of 15
November 10, 2013
Who’d want to go into these markets?
Tokyo 1950 Beijing 1980
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 4 of 15
November 10, 2013
Who wouldn’t want to be in these markets?
Beijing 2010 Tokyo 2010
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 5 of 15
November 10, 2013
Now, where’s the Emerging Market?Now, where’s the Emerging Market?
Where’s a 2013 market with unmet needs (and looks like Beijing 1980)?
And, has a 12% CAGR potential. How many Chinese are in that market?
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 6 of 15
November 10, 2013
Here’s Your Emerging Market!Here’s Your Emerging Market!
Rural China 2013
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 7 of 15
November 10, 2013
Welcome to China’s Forgotten Market!Welcome to China’s Forgotten Market!
Rural China 2013
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 8 of 15
November 10, 2013
Ford became the richest man in the world selling the least expensive car on the market (and paying well!).
Walmart became the biggest company in the U.S. by selling goods cheaply to the poor & staying out of cities.
Levitt & Sons built the biggest housing development in history for families just starting out, much like Ford.
For over 100 years Wee Willie Keeler held the record for most hits in baseball by “hitting them where they ain’t.”
Can I make money working with Villagers?Can I make money working with Villagers?
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 9 of 15
November 10, 2013
“I will build a car for the great multitude. It will be large enough for the family, but small enough for the individual to run and care for. It will be constructed of the best materials, by the best men to be hired, after the simplest designs that modern engineering can
devise. But it will be so low in price that no man making a good salary will be unable to own one — and enjoy with his family the blessing of hours of pleasure in God's great open spaces.” Henry Ford (c. 1905)
A Man Driven by a Vision to Lift Poor Men Up
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 10 of 15
November 10, 2013
Ford astonished the world in 1914 by offering a $5 / day wage ($120 today), which more than doubled the rate ofmost of his workers. A Cleveland, Ohionewspaper editorialized that theannouncement "shot like a blindingrocket through the dark clouds of thepresent industrial depression." Themove proved extremely profitable;instead of constant turnover ofemployees, the best mechanics inDetroit flocked to Ford, bringing theirhuman capital and expertise, raisingproductivity, and lowering trainingcosts. Ford announced his $5-per-dayprogram on January 5, 1914, raisingthe minimum daily pay from $2.34 to$5 for qualifying workers.
Poor Men Driven by a Chance to Make a Good Living
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 11 of 15
November 10, 2013
Villagers are:As resourceful as they can be given their current context.More anxious to better their lives than ordinary Urbanites.Not brand followers, rather choose to fill real-life needs.Driven by different values and behaviors than Urbanites.Highly dependent on the their location and its history.Not going to be helped by “one size for all” programs.Too deferential to local and central government officials.Going to be helped by creative alliances & flexible support.Not going to be helped by usual ways of MNCs & SOEs.THE MOST PROMISING MARKET IN CHINA TODAY!
Declaration of BeliefsDeclaration of Beliefs
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 12 of 15
November 10, 2013
I know far too little about the:Political dynamics of initiating and sustaining village action.Priorities that Villagers themselves have in any given village.Behavioral culture of Villagers as contrasted to Urbanites.Past experiences with outsiders coming into villages to help.Rhythm of the season’s impact on the Villagers’ daily lives.Aspirations that Villagers have for their families and lives.Things taken for granted in the city like security, water, sewage.Impact of “progress” on existing relationships and social power.Way that I &/or my initiatives might be accepted and rejected.
Declaration of IgnoranceDeclaration of Ignorance
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 13 of 15
November 10, 2013
Investigate the “Base of the Pyramid” opportunity space.
Check out “The Rural Way” by Sun Jun (农道 , 孙君著 )
Tap Michigan’s special access to China New Countryside Projects.
Intern with a New Countryside NGO or team up with a Project.
After research, try innovating some business models for Villagers.
Commitment to ActionCommitment to Action
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 14 of 15
November 10, 2013
Remember: Appearances aren’t Everything!Remember: Appearances aren’t Everything!
China Business Challenge of CEN
University of Michigan, Ann ArborSlide 15 of 15
November 10, 2013
Thank you from the bottom of my heart!
Sincerely, Jim Cook
I welcome your email and will try to answer, promptly, and remember:
“The universe is full of magical things patiently waiting for our wits to grow sharper.” Eden Phillpotts (1862-1960)
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