China – why investors should be embracing the dragon ... · 6-percent level, and businessmen look at that as an immense opportunity.” Moreover, by the end of this decade,

Britain’s brexit election – delivering (un)certainty for markets?

World markets update

Cornhill’s top 5 new year’s resolu-tions for 2020

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Newsletter, January 2020

China – why investors should be embracing the dragon rather than shying away

CHINA – WHY INVESTORS SHOULD BE EMBRACING THE DRAGON RATHER THAN SHYING AWAY

Rising popularity

A recent survey by asset manager Matthews Asia and data analytics giant Greenwich Associates has found that many investors are limiting Chinese exposure due to concerns over corporate

governance, a slowing economy and political protests in Hong Kong.

Instead, the survey of 150 professional investors around the world found it is markets such as the UK and Germany that investors are backing.

8 / 2019

With what seemed at times like a never-ending slew of bad news about trade, the economy and the deteriorating situation in Hong Kong, some investors might have felt reasonably justified in bypassing Chinese stocks over the last year or so.

But while recent research has shown that many investors are underexposed to what is the world’s second largest economy, there are, say experts on the region, good reasons why investors should be considering adding or raising their portfolio exposure to the country.

CHINA − EMBRACING THE DRAGON

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However, experts on China say that investors would not be wrong to add or increase their exposure to the country within their portfolios.

Growth still high

China’s economy is the second largest in the world and with a population of 1.4 billion people and GDP of USD 12.2 trillion, some say it has managed to keep the global economy going since the financial crisis.

Its breakneck speed of growth for almost two decades since the 1990s is well documented, but the last few years has seen a slowing in economic expansion.

But while China’s economy is growing at a slower pace than a decade ago, it continues to far outstrip that of its developed and emerging market peers – GDP growth stood at 6.6% in 2018 and is forecast to be around 6% for 2019 (final figures not yet available) and similar for this year and the year after.

By way of comparison, growth in the UK is set to come in at 1.3% for 2019 and is forecast to be 1.0% this year, according to forecasts from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The group puts the US economy’s expansion at 2.3% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020.

And China’s forecast growth of around 6% is despite an ongoing bitter trade dispute with the US.

Speaking at the New Economy Forum in Beijing late last year, Mike Roman, chairman and chief executive officer of American multinational 3M Company, said: “We shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that China’s GDP is still growing at a 6-percent level, and businessmen look at that as an immense opportunity.”

Moreover, by the end of this decade, China’s economy will be the largest in the world, overtaking the US.

Easier investing

Meanwhile, accessing investment potential in China has become easier for foreign investors. China’s domestic stocks, or A-Shares, were added to the MSCI Emerging Markets index in 2017 and their weighting in the index was increased three times alone in 2019.

The inclusion of A-Shares on the index opened up domestic stocks to foreign investors as, before this, many Chinese companies had been forced to list their shares in Hong Kong to attract international investment.

At the same time, experts have pointed out government efforts to remove barriers to entry for investors, including removing foreign ownership restrictions, and improvements in areas such as corporate reporting, legal protection, market surveillance and financial intermediaries.

Speaking after the release of an Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) survey

“We shouldn’t lose sight of the fact that China’s GDP is still growing at a 6-percent level, and businessmen look at that as an immense opportunity.”Mike RomanChairman and Chief Executive Officer – 3M Company


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on investment in China in late 2019, Andrew Lo, Senior Managing Director and Head of Asia Pacific at global investment firm Invesco, summed up the results saying: “Chinese authorities continue to show their commitment to support investor interest in the country’s capital markets.”

Good value

Many Chinese companies are also well-priced compared to developed market peers, suggests Tiffany Hsiao, manager of the five-star rated Matthews China Small Companies fund. Speaking to global fund ratings and research group Morningstar in December, she pointed out there are a number of Chinese companies which are reasonably priced despite delivering strong returns.

Hsiao said the best access to growth in China is through domestic companies, particularly smaller firms. “The low research coverage in the market leaves the field open for finding undiscovered companies with untapped growth potential,” she said.

Firms with a local focus are also less likely to suffer the worst effects of the trade dispute between Beijing and Washington.

Smart investors already leaning towards ChinaAll this has not been lost on some canny investors. Although the Matthews Asia and Greenwich Associates survey suggested asset managers and investors were underexposed to China, research by the Economist Intelligence

Unit (EIU) suggests that could be about to change.

According to the EIU’s research, which was commissioned by global investment company Invesco, 80% of investors will consider investments in China within the next year.

In the China Position survey, which involved 411 asset owners and professional investors from various regions across the world, about half of respondents with dedicated China exposure report their investments have “risen significantly” in the past 12 months.

Meanwhile, it also indicated that Chinese asset classes in the survey could see increased investment from foreign organisations over the next 12 months, with respondents highlighting technology, financial services and

“new economy” sectors as the most attractive.

Tech titans

China’s tech sector has become a key target for some investors as the country has become a world leader in technological innovation, today rivalling Silicon Valley in terms of venture capital investment.

“The findings are promising and support our view that China’s massive growth and continuing efforts to allow greater access to its markets represent a significant and increasingly attractive opportunity for both domestic and global investors.”Marty FlanaganPresident and CEO – Invesco


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Writing in the China Daily in December, Mike Shiao, chief investment officer of Invesco Asia, said: “China’s tech sector also has much to offer, as the theme of technological upgrade in China becomes more and more evident. The A-share market and newly launched STAR board provide access to many of China’s budding IT companies, which, due to China’s market size and depth, can develop, innovate and sustain themselves into globally competitive players, especially in areas like cloud technology, enterprise solutions and online payment systems.”

In the EIU survey, 58% of respondents indicated that innovation (i.e. artificial intelligence, robotics, etc.) is the investment theme most likely to attract investment from their respective organisations.

Trade spat not a deal breakerAlthough one of the main reasons cited by respondents to the Matthews Asia survey as to why they had limited exposure to China was a concern about the country’s economic outlook – and by extension the trade dispute with the US

– the Economist Intelligence Unit’s study showed this was not a decisive concern for potential investors.

Indeed, despite 2019 seeing trade relations between Beijing and Washington stretched, it seemed, almost to breaking point, foreign direct investment into the Chinese mainland was up 6.6% y-o-y in the first ten months of the year.

A report from the Xinhua news agency in November cited data from the Shanghai municipal government showing that the total number of foreign-funded research and development centres and regional headquarters of multinational corporations in the city had risen to 1,163. It said this was evidence of confidence among multinational companies in the Chinese market.

Meanwhile, even though the EIU survey showed respondents were mixed regarding the impact of US-China trade tensions on investment with similar numbers expecting a positive or negative effect, a majority said they were expecting to raise their exposure to the Chinese market in the next year.

Attractive opportunity

Investment experts say the findings of the survey have underlined the opportunities for investors in China.

Marty Flanagan, President and CEO of Invesco, said: “The findings are promising and support our view that China’s massive growth and continuing efforts to allow greater access to its markets represent a significant and increasingly attractive opportunity for both domestic and global investors.”

To find out more about Cornhill or our products please speak to your Regional Sales Manager or get in touch with us at [email protected]


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BRITAIN’S BREXIT ELECTION – DELIVERING (UN)CERTAINTY FOR MARKETS?

8 / 2019

Boris Johnson’s thumping victory in UK parliamentary elections last month was a definitive moment in Britain’s almost four-year long Brexit saga.

The Prime Minister’s massive parliamentary majority means he can now push his Brexit withdrawal agreement through parliament and the UK can leave the European Union at the end of January with a deal.

After years of uncertainty over how, or indeed even if, Britain would leave the EU, businesses and markets now know what to expect, at least in the short term.

However, as became very clear within days of the Conservative Party’s election win, the threat of ‘no-deal’ has not disappeared and initial relief and apparent clarity has already given way to more concern and uncertainty.

BREXIT − (UN)CERTAINTY FOR MARKETS?

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Welcome relief

Since the Brexit referendum in June 2016, businesses in the UK, and elsewhere, have complained about the uncertainty created as politicians in Westminster repeatedly failed to agree on a deal to cover the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. As a result, the country’s departure date has been pushed back three times.

Business leaders have continually argued that the uncertainty was affecting investment, trade and jobs. And indicators from the UK economy, at least, seemed to bear this out with Britain only just avoiding recession in the third quarter of 2019, annual growth at its lowest since 2010 and manufacturers cutting back on investments and laying off staff.

Meanwhile, a study published in the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) called The Impact of Brexit on UK firms, suggests the uncertainty has reduced investment by British firms by about 11 percent, and lowered productivity by between 2 and 5 percent.

It has also wreaked havoc with Sterling and was another geopolitical weight on global market sentiment at a time when the US-China trade conflict was already threatening the world economy.

So, it was perhaps no surprise that following the election, UK stock markets

– the FTSE 250 gained 4% in the first three days of trading after the elections – and other bourses shot up while Sterling rallied.

The euphoria did not last long though.

A shadow of the past

Days after the Conservatives’ win, the threat of a no-deal exit from the EU – a threat many had believed had disappeared – suddenly loomed large again.

Under the current withdrawal deal, Britain will leave the EU on 31 January, but a transition period will apply until the end of 2020 during which the UK will continue to follow EU laws and

BREXIT – WHAT HAPPENS NOW:Jan 31

2019

2020

2021

July 1

December 31

Assuming the withdrawal agreement passes the House of Lords in January as expected, the UK will officially leave the EU. Under the terms of the withdrawal agreement, a transition period – during which the UK is to remain in the customs union and single market and adhere to all EU laws – will begin and run until at least the end of 2020.

Deadline for the UK to request an extension to the transition period of either one of two years. Boris Johnson has already said he will not do this and under the withdrawal agreement approved by the UK parliament any such request would be illegal.

If the UK has not requested an extension, the transition period will end. If a trade agreement has been reached, it will come into effect and Britain and the EU will begin trading under its terms. If not, it is most likely that the UK would have to start trading with the EU under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.


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regulations. Essentially, nothing will change for businesses on both sides of the Channel.

During this period, both the UK and EU will be working to secure a trade deal – a deal the Prime Minister and officials in Brussels have repeatedly said they want.

But many experts say getting a comprehensive deal done in such a short time is highly unlikely. Similar deals usually take anywhere up to seven years, or even longer to complete.

Speaking to the Pensions and Investment website, Silvia Dall’Angelo, senior economist at Hermes Investment Management in London, said: “Brexit will linger in the next three, four years

— time (is) needed to negotiate a new trade agreement of this size.”

As such, there had been a provision for the UK to ask for the transition period to be extended beyond the end of 2020, and it had been widely expected that Prime Minister Johnson would have to make such a request.

But it soon emerged that the Prime Minister was planning parliamentary legislation to ensure the UK could not ask for an extra extension, no matter what the circumstances.

This could mean that at the end of the transition period, Britain would find itself outside of the EU with no agreement on future trading arrangements and suddenly having to deal with its biggest trading partners on WTO terms – essentially the ‘no-deal’ Brexit scenario businesses had feared most.

What next?

Business leaders have been quick to call on the Prime Minister to ensure a no-deal scenario is avoided.

The Prime Minister and other government figures have made it clear they want a deal. But none of them have ruled out the possibility of finishing the transition period without a deal and have publicly called on all businesses to prepare for such an outcome.

The approach has been derided as reckless by some who see it as a dangerous negotiating ploy by the Prime Minister to try and force the EU’s hand in trade talks.

Others have suggested the Prime Minister might, as he has done already, eventually relent and ask for some kind of extension to the transition period.

As Azad Zangana, Senior European Economist and Strategist at Schroders, wrote in CityAM: “Prime Minister Boris Johnson has declared that he will not extend beyond December 2020, but it can’t be ruled out entirely.”

However, an extension seems unlikely with the law banning any such request due to be passed as part of the withdrawal bill.

What is clear though is that a no-deal scenario is still on the table. This, say experts, is bad news for businesses who are likely to face growing uncertainty through the year.

Writing in The Conversation.com, Hanna Szymborska, Lecturer in Economics


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for The Open University, said: “In the short term, the near-certain prospect of a 2020 Brexit may bring a period of long-awaited certainty, reinforcing the market’s optimism by strengthening the position of the pound against other major currencies and restoring some confidence in consumer spending. But these initial feelings of stability may be short lived.”

What does this all mean for UK shares, the British economy and wider global markets, both for the rest of 2020 and in the longer-term?

Initial UK market reaction to the election results was overwhelmingly positive as investors who had previously been wary of Brexit uncertainty moved back into the market.

Sue Noffke, Head of UK Equities for Schroders, pointed out that the UK has lagged other markets since the EU referendum in 2016 with UK shares trading at a typical 17 per cent discount to their global peers. At the start of December, the discount was as high as 35 per cent.

“There could potentially be scope for this discount to close, given the greater clarity on policy provided by the election result. With some resolution to political uncertainty, we expect fundamental factors such as valuations to play a greater role in share price performances,” she said.

Better economy

Meanwhile, experts say that the UK economy could see some improvement relatively quickly in the wake of the Conservative victory.

Writing in The Conversation.com, Costas Milas, Professor of Finance at the University of Liverpool, said that

“according to Johnson’s pre-election economic pledges, government spending will increase by exploiting historically low interest rates to borrow more from international markets. Lower Brexit-related uncertainty and an expansive fiscal stimulus will provide powerful support to the Bank of England’s loose monetary policy in stimulating the UK economy.”

He added: “The improved economic climate should encourage the UK business sector to reverse the business investment slump of the last two years or so.”

However, the outcome of trade talks, and whether a deal is agreed at the end of the year remain paramount to longer-term prospects for the UK economy.

“Don’t expect a business investment boom any time soon. At least not until Johnson and the EU agree on a new deal. Whether this happens by the end of 2020 or much later is another story,” said Milas.

Others are even more pessimistic, arguing that whatever happens with trade negotiations, uncertainty is likely to weigh on the British economy for years to come.


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“The transition period is bound to bring a fresh wave of uncertainty in the years to come as the UK begins to separate its legislative system from the EU. This is likely to discourage demand and drive investment away from the UK, which would put a further strain on the economy that already suffers from low productivity,” explained Szymborska.

“In the long run (depending on what kind of Brexit is concluded) the prospect of low demand, possible trade restrictions and the potential loss of cheap migrant labour from the EU is likely to have a negative impact on firms and on consumers if prices rise.”

Not just a UK problem

Brexit, of course, does not just affect the UK and it was, therefore, perhaps unsurprising to see global markets rise in the hours after the Conservative election victory.

But the US-China trade dispute has been, and is likely to remain, far higher up many investors’ geo-political agendas, and recent returns for global equity indices – the MSCI World Index was up 24% for the year (just before Christmas) – suggest that Brexit concerns are not a decisive factor influencing performance in most other global markets.

Uncertainty over Brexit has, though, affected European shares over the last three and a half years. Brexit in any form will have an inevitable effect on businesses on the continent and local economies – research by consultants Oliver Wyman suggests that a hard

Brexit would cost French firms alone EUR 4 billion per year.

Dragged out and difficult trade negotiations, coupled with a potential no-deal UK exit from the EU will not inspire confidence among investors already fretting over the Eurozone’s struggling economy.

Could things turn out OK?

But while there will be some uncertainty as long as the prospect of a no-deal exists, some financial experts say it is perfectly possible for a trade deal to be struck before the end of the year.

Writing in the South China Morning Post, David Brown, chief executive of New View Economics, said that the threat of a no-deal at the end of the year could concentrate minds in Brussels and Westminster.

“On the positive side, with the clock ticking again, it should help focus minds in Brussels and London, and there’s still ample time to work out a mutually agreeable settlement that avoids the risk of deeper economic crisis in Europe,” said Brown.

And even if a comprehensive deal is not struck, others have suggested that the UK and EU could get some kind of limited deal over the line by the end of the year.

However, it seems likely that fears of the UK cutting itself out of the EU without a meaningful agreement in place – which many economists say would push Sterling down, raise prices,


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hurt levels of domestic and foreign investment and economic growth – will continue to loom large in the coming year.

“In the short term, the election outcome is positive for markets but there is still huge uncertainty of the form of what the future relationship will be,” with the EU, said Shamik Dhar, chief economist at BNY Mellon Investment Management in London.

He told the Pensions and Investment website: “Negotiation will be difficult. I expect a lot of volatility as negotiations get underway… We (could) end up with a harder end of the exit or a clean exit…”



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CORNHILL’S TOP 5 NEW YEAR’s RESOLUTIONS FOR 2020

8 / 2019

At the start of every new year, many of us make resolutions, fully determined to stick to them over the next twelve months. Unfortunately, that isn’t what always happens, and resolutions can be quickly abandoned or forgotten.

So, rather than chasing the big resolutions, it’s time we started to look at small changes we can implement on a daily basis...

small changes that will make a huge difference to our lives if we stick at them.

Here’s our Top 5 New Year resolutions to help you improve your well-being and overall lifestyle in 2020.

NEW YEAR’s RESOLUTIONS FOR 2020

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1Create a work-life balance

If you describe yourself as super-stressed, then it is possible that your lifestyle may not be balanced or even unhealthy. While a certain amount of stress is required to spur us on, too much of it can make us irritable, depressed and even susceptible to various ailments. Superman and Wonder Woman are fictional characters. We shouldn’t try to emulate them in real life. The drive to “get it all done” at work as well as at home can only leave you stressed. One of the best ways to create a healthy work-life balance is to set priorities - remember all work and

no play makes Jack a dull boy. Making time for your friends and family in your busy schedule is one way of addressing the work-life balance. It also gives you something to look forward to at the weekend. Another tactic is to drop activities that sap your time and energy. For instance, one of the most time-consuming activities we indulge in is scrolling through social media feeds. You could also save time by doing your grocery shopping online and instead spend the evening with your loved one. These little changes will help you enjoy a good work-life balance in the coming year.


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2Apply the ‘one-hour-a-day’ formulaEver find yourself complaining about how you aren’t able to find enough time to pursue your hobbies or do the things that you really want to do? What’s surprising to most people is that you don’t necessarily need a large chunk of free time at your disposal to follow your passion; the one-hour-a-day formula can help you achieve your life goals in 2020. Remember, it takes time to make time. Divide each day into three 8-hour blocks. Deduct 8 hours for work and 8 hours for sleep and you are left with 8 hours of productivity. Take out 2 hours for commuting to and from work. Now you are left with a six-hour block each

day that’s entirely yours to do with as you wish. Write a book, play a piano, join a salsa class or start planning for the business you want to start one day. If you still think that an hour a day is not enough time to get anything done, you are wrong. An hour of exercise can keep your weight under control, an hour of upgrading your job skills will keep you updated about the new trends in your niche, an hour of meditation can keep you calm and composed throughout the day. In short, if properly employed, an hour a day is enough to make the important changes to your life. Just analyse how you are spending time, rework your schedule, get over your inner resistance and voila!


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3Change your morning habitsWhat do you do in the first 10 minutes after you wake up in the morning? Grab your smartphone, scroll through your social feeds, check work emails or your WhatsApp messages? If that sounds like your morning ritual, you may need to consider making a change in 2020. Reading a stressful work email or a bad news story first thing in the morning can potentially damage your day, before it has even begun. Another thing many of us do is set our alarm earlier than needed just so we can hit the snooze button. If this is you, we suggest you get rid of this “One more minute” habit immediately. All you are doing is

delaying the start of the day. Instead, keep your cell phone or alarm clock out of reach or maybe in another room, so that you have to get out of bed to stop it. The next thing to include in your morning routine is stretching, as it brings several health benefits like improved blood circulation and stress relief. The third habit you need to change is skipping breakfast. Make something the night before if you don’t have enough time to make breakfast in the morning. Avoid having coffee first thing in the morning and try developing the habit of drinking water instead. Consuming water on an empty stomach banishes headaches, improves digestion, boosts the immune system, relieves fatigue and flushes out toxins.


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4Look for solutions instead of problemsDon’t bring me problems, bring me solutions! That’s what we expect from everyone around us but when it comes to ourselves we often fail to practice what we preach. Especially at work. Raising concerns can be extremely beneficial for an organisation, but it depends how they are raised. Do you frame your critiques as ideas for

positive improvement or do you just complain? If you do the latter, we suggest changing that habit in the coming year. Bringing up issues and always looking for problem areas can make you less productive at work. It can hurt your job performance. Don’t focus too much on why a problem emerged but instead think about possible solutions. You will go a long way if you promise yourself to do that in the coming year.


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5VOLUNTEER!

Volunteering is known for its feel-good benefits. Although the world has seen a surge in youth volunteering in the last couple of years, people at the other end of the age spectrum have also been contributing just as much, maybe even more. Volunteering as you get older brings with it a sense of purpose, a feeling of contributing to the community and increased self-esteem. But like any good habit, volunteering is best acquired in the early years of your life. And volunteering doesn’t necessarily mean handing over money

to someone sitting by the road or writing a big cheque to a non-profit organisation. Giving money is just one way of contributing to charity. If you don’t have money, you can always give your valuable time. Help your aged neighbour when he is having trouble lifting his heavy grocery bags, help someone by donating blood, or by giving them your old but wearable clothes. The most beautiful example of an informal voluntary activity is often seen at Christmas time when many families donate to the local food bank.



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WORLD MARKETS UPDATE

General

Global equity markets did well in December, rising as the US and China agreed a preliminary trade deal − defusing tensions between Beijing and Washington − and Brexit worries eased after the UK elections. There was, however, profit-taking at the end of the month as investors cashed in recent gains.

Major developed markets rose over the month with investors welcoming news of the phase one trade deal agreement between the US and China. Economic data also provided support, especially some strong labour market readings. Manufacturing data remains weak, though. US markets also shrugged off the formal impeachment of

President Donald Trump in the House of Representatives as the prospect of a Republican-controlled Senate removing him from office appears unlikely.

Markets in Europe advanced as Brexit worries receded after UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party won a large parliamentary majority in elections held during the month. The result paves the way for an orderly Brexit at the end of January, bringing some respite for firms and investors who have had to face the constant uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union since the 2016 referendum result.

Japanese stocks closed higher, although economic data continued to make gloomy reading, particularly


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manufacturing readings with sentiment in the sector low and factory activity continuing to shrink.

Emerging markets also made ground, benefitting from positive investor sentiment.

In Asia, Chinese shares were among the big gainers on the back of the trade breakthrough and more stimulus measures as Beijing looks to bolster the slowing economy. Even the market in Hong Kong had a superb month, despite no signs of a let up in the protests that have wracked the territory since the summer.

Latin American stocks made good ground in December, rising on the back of improved sentiment on emerging markets in general and good news on US-China trade. Meanwhile, African shares were up for the month, mirroring global peers, with gains in all the major markets. South African stocks led the way with the MSCI South Africa index posting a more than 9% gain.

The December gains brought a positive end to what has been an excellent year for equities with many major markets posting double digit gains and hitting record highs. The S&P500 index, for instance, registered its best annual performance since 2013, finishing up 28.9 per cent, while the Nasdaq did even better, climbing 35%. The FTSE 100 registered its best performance for three years, rising 12%, Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC were both up 25% and the main Japanese benchmark, the Nikkei 225, climbed 18%. China’s CSI 300 gauge beat them all though, posting a 36% gain.

USS&P 500 3.0% Dow Jones 1.9%

MSCI USA 2.9% NASDAQ 3.6%

In the US, markets posted decent gains as trade continued to be the dominant market driver in the month. Despite some negative headlines at the start of the month and doubts over progress on a preliminary trade deal between Washington and Beijing, news that the US and China had reached an agreement on a phase one trade deal and the avoidance of new tariffs which had been due to go into effect, helped in the middle of the month to lift local benchmarks. Sentiment remained positive for the rest of the month, although the year’s final sessions were marked by profit-booking after what has been an excellent year for local shares. US benchmarks posted some of the best gains of 2019 with the Nasdaq climbing 35% and the S&P 500 finishing 29% higher.

There were some good economic readings, particularly from the labour market with robust non-farm payroll growth paired with upward revisions to October’s figure suggesting the economy maintained a respectable pace of expansion in the fourth quarter. However, concerns about manufacturing persist after an unexpected weakening in manufacturing activity in November and a second straight monthly fall in construction spending in October.

In line with other major central banks, the Federal Reserve continued its accommodative monetary stance, leaving its benchmark rate in a range from 1.50% to 1.75% and indicating it is unlikely to raise rates in 2020.


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Bank Chairman Jerome Powell said only a sustained rise in inflation – which does not currently look likely – would lead to a rate hike.

EuropeMSCI EMU 1.1% DAX 0.1%

FTSE 100 2.8% CAC 40 1.3%

Stocks in Europe had a positive month, advancing on the back of improved trade sentiment after the phase one trade deal was struck between the US and China as well as some welcome clarity on Brexit following elections in the UK.

But while European stocks closed the year on a positive note, the region’s economy continues to struggle. Latest data indicated the Eurozone’s manufacturing woes deepened in the last month of the year. IHS Markit’s December Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading came in at 46.3, down on November and the eleventh consecutive month it has been below the 50 mark that separates contraction from expansion. In Germany, the Economy Ministry admitted during the month that the economy was essentially stagnating. This comes as the manufacturing sector remains mired in recession. Meanwhile, economic growth in many other Eurozone economies remains sluggish.

UK stocks, as proxied by the FTSE 100 index, were up for the month. The US-China trade agreement helped strengthen sentiment, but a large part of the gains came as UK elections removed – for a time at least – Brexit worries as Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Conservative party won a

large parliamentary majority. The result paves the way for an orderly Brexit at the end of January, bringing some respite for firms which have complained over the uncertainty surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union over the last 18 months or so. Indeed, economic data released just before the elections showed that GDP growth in the UK had stagnated due to Brexit uncertainty.

AsiaMSCI Asia ex-Japan 6.7% Shanghai Composite 6.2%

MSCI ASEAN 3.3% Nikkei 225 1.7%

SENSEX 1.1%

Asian equities were up for the month with local sentiment boosted by positive trade developments. As in other regions, news of the US-China phase one trade deal agreement helped drive stocks higher.

In Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 advanced. But while stocks moved higher, economic readings were short of cheer. Data showed sentiment among large manufacturers fell in the fourth quarter to its lowest in nearly seven years. Meanwhile, the Jibun Bank composite PMI reading stood at 49.8 in December, still below the 50.0 threshold which separates expansion from contraction in the private sector.

Chinese mainland stocks closed the month with good gains as investor sentiment was buoyed after Washington and Beijing agreed on a ‘phase one’ trade deal, lowering trade tensions between the two nations. Meanwhile, consumer prices in China rose 0.4% in November, below October’s 0.9% rise. Meanwhile, it was reported that Chinese banks distributed RMB


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1.39 trillion in new loans, well above the RMB 661 billion recorded in October. In the 12 months up to November, new yuan loans totalled RMB 16.8 trillion. Industrial production increased 6.2% y-o-y in November, well above October’s 4.7% expansion and the strongest reading in five months.

In Hong Kong, shares soared, gaining 7% against a backdrop of growing trade optimism. This came despite there being no sign of an end to the unrest that has rocked the territory since the summer.

Elsewhere, the positive sentiment also spread to Taiwan where stocks were also up in December. Turning to the economy, Taiwan’s merchandise exports increased 3.3% in November in annual terms. This followed a 1.5% contraction in October. Exports to the US continued to surge with year-to-date results also showing the increased importance of the US as a trading partner, likely linked to trade diversion from China. However, export orders decreased by 3.5% in October. Looking ahead, January sees elections for a new president and legislative assembly and incumbent Tsai Ing-wen of the independence-leaning Democratic Progressive Party looks likely to retain her hold on the presidency – and continue past policies.

In India, markets closed higher for December, despite some profit-booking at the end of the month as investors cashed in after recent gains. Receding geopolitical risks played a part in helping sentiment during the month with the agreement of a ‘phase one’ trade deal between China and the US being welcomed by investors. The central bank made a surprise decision

to leave rates unchanged during the month soon after the release of data showing economic growth in the country had slowed to 4.5% in the third quarter - below forecasts and the weakest expansion in more than six years. The reading had led many to expect the central bank would move to lower rates, but instead the Reserve Bank of India decided to take no action, citing near-term inflation concerns. However, the bank downgraded its growth forecast to 5% for the year through to March – the lowest level in a decade. The government moved to ease lending rules for so-called ‘shadow’ banks. This comes as global rating agency Moody’s warned of pressure on Indian finance companies as some banks remain heavily exposed to non-bank credit providers. Meanwhile, the government announced plans for USD 14 billion of infrastructure investments in road, rail and airports.

A breakthrough in the US-China trade dispute helped ASEAN stocks in December with the preliminary trade deal struck between Beijing and China providing a boost to sentiment across the region. The trade dispute between Washington and Beijing has been a seemingly permanent weight on regional sentiment since it began because of the trade links many ASEAN countries have with China and the dispute’s effect on the wider global economy. In other news, data showed inflation in the Philippines at 1.3% in November, up from 0.8% in October. In Singapore, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading came in at 49.8 in November – an improvement on October – driven in part by faster rates of expansion in factory output. But it was still short of the 50-mark which separates expansion from contraction.


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Business confidence in Thailand was down for the 12th consecutive month, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce. Malaysian exports fell for the fourth month in a row in November, slipping 5.5% y-o-y on the back of fewer shipments of manufactured goods and commodities. Meanwhile, Indonesian officials launched legal action at the World Trade Organisation (WTO) against the European Union after the EU slapped tariffs on its palm-based biodiesel shipments.

In South Korea, stocks rose against a backdrop of more favourable trade news. Among key indicator readings in the month, consumer prices were down 0.6% m-o-m in November, while the IHS Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading ticked up marginally from 48.4 in October to 49.4 in November, closing in on the 50-threshold that separates contraction from expansion in the manufacturing sector.

Latin AmericaMSCI Latin America 10.4% MSCI Chile 10.9%

MSCI Brazil 25-50 12.7% MSCI Mexico 4.8%

MSCI Argentina 13.2%

Latin American stocks made good ground in December with many markets posting double-digit gains. This came amid improved sentiment on emerging markets in general and positive US-China trade news.

In Brazil, stocks started the month positively, rising on good US data and improving prospects for a US-China trade deal. The release of data showing Brazil’s industrial production rose

for a third month in a row in October, advancing 0.8%, also helped equities. The gains came despite threats by US President Donald Trump to slap steel tariffs on Brazil and Argentina after recent currency devaluations.

News later in the month that Beijing and Washington had agreed on a phase one trade deal helped lift local stocks further, while there was also a boost for shares from the central bank’s decision to cut overnight lending rates to a historical low and a move by global ratings agency S&P to raise its outlook for Brazilian banks and sovereign debt to “positive”. An improvement in domestic demand helped the local market to further gains as the year came to a close.

In Mexico, stocks were under pressure at the start of the month as violence linked to drug gangs raged and President Obrador’s administration appeared powerless to tackle it. But there were gains later in the month as news of a phase one US-China trade deal was announced, raising global trade sentiment, and as the US, Mexico and Canada made progress on getting a new trade agreement to replace NAFTA approved in the three countries’ legislatures.

In Chile, equities made gains as the government announced a USD 5.5 billion stimulus package for the economy. This came after latest data showed Chile’s economy contracted 3.4% y-o-y in October. By introducing the stimulus, government spending is expected to increase around 10% in 2020. Chile’s debt-to-GDP ratio is forecast to jump from the current rate of 25% to nearer 38% by 2024 as public


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spending is ramped up but growth and the currency are forecast to remain weak.

The stimulus package comes as Chile enters a third month of violent protests over inequality. Clashes between police and demonstrators have left 27 people dead. They have also rocked confidence in the economy and the government has cut its annual economic growth forecast for 2020.

Argentine stocks made significant ground in a month which saw the central bank drop a huge hint that rates would soon be cut. Stocks jumped after officials said rates would “surely” fall in the near term and suggested restructuring the country’s huge debt would not be difficult. Argentina is due to start talks soon with creditors over restructuring its debts.

AfricaMSCI Africa 4.9% FTSE/JSE 9.2%

MSCI South Africa 9.7% MSCI Egypt 5.0%

MSCI Kenya 7.4% MSCI Nigeria 2.4%

African shares were up for the month, mirroring global peers, with gains in all the major markets. South African stocks led the way with the MSCI South Africa index posting a more than 9% gain amid strong commodity prices in the month and sharp gains for some local market heavyweights, including the likes of Anglo American Platinum and Naspers. There were decent advances for Kenyan and Egyptian equities too while Nigerian shares also finished in positive territory.

In South Africa, the government has appealed to industry leaders for solutions to the country’s power

crisis as debt-ridden Eskom’s coal-fired stations, which have been poorly maintained for years, struggle to meet demand.

The deepening power crisis in the country also weighed on the country’s currency and stock market at the start of the month. Flash-flooding forced shutdowns to already troubled state-owned power utility Eskom’s ageing power plants, triggering massive blackouts which forced production cuts in the key mining industry. However, with South Africa one of the world’s largest producers of certain mined products, the threats of lower production pushed global prices higher, which helped some mining companies.

Towards the end of the month the Rand strengthened as sentiment on emerging markets improved in the wake of the announcement of a phase one trade deal between the US and China.

Meanwhile, latest figures showed South Africa’s economy contracting 0.6% in the third quarter of the year. This came after rising 3.2% q-o-q in the second quarter, making up for a 3.1% contraction in 1Q2019. A sharp contraction in mining, manufacturing and agriculture were largely responsible for the latest reading. It now appears unlikely that officially targeted growth of 0.5% for 2019 will be achieved.

In Nigeria, the government filed new allegations of fraud in an ongoing USD 10 billion court case in London. The government is defending itself against legal action by British Virgin Islands-based Process & Industrial Developments (P&ID) over a failed gas project.


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To find out more please speak to your Regional Sales Manager or get in touch with us at [email protected]

P&ID had previously been awarded USD 6.6 billion, plus interest, for lost earnings after a gas plant it was due to build was never built. Nigeria says the initial contract was secured fraudulently. The interest on the award runs to more than USD 1 million per day and is now worth a quarter of Nigeria’s foreign reserves.

The Nigerian government has signed a major gas expansion deal set to raise its output of liquefied natural gas by almost a third. A final investment decision on a processing unit at the Bonny Island gas plant was signed by Nigeria LNG and a number of international partners, including Total and Royal Dutch Shell in Abuja. The rise in output from the new unit is expected to halt falling liquefied natural gas output in the country.

In Kenya, it was reported that the country is planning to spend over USD 10 billion on new roads and road upkeep over the next five years and that state organizations are hoping to sell infrastructure bonds to potential investors. The bonds are likely to be issued in the first quarter of 2020.

Stanbic Bank Kenya’s latest Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reading was unchanged at 53.2 in November. The bank said the reading suggested continued improvement in the private sector.

Towards the end of the month, the Nairobi Securities Exchange saw a number of profit warnings from listed firms, including the likes of CIC Insurance and Kenya Airways Plc, Analysts said the warnings highlighted the challenging business environment in the country.

In Egypt, regulators gave the green light for a USD 3.1 billion acquisition of regional ride-hailing service Careem by global rival Uber. The acquisition had been originally announced in March and is now expected to be closed in January. Egypt, with a growing population now close to 100 million, had been seen as a major target for Uber in the Middle East region. Under the deal, Careem will be a wholly owned subsidiary of Uber but will operate as an independent brand with independent management.


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Cornhill Sales Diary

Welcome to the Cornhill Sales Diary… here we outline the upcoming movements of our Sales team. If you would like to meet with any of them while they are in your region, please drop them a line.

9 / 2019Cornhill Sales Diary

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© Calendar-12.com

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2020 Calendar

IN ASIA this month…

final dates yet to be determined

Richard JamesRegional Manager AsiaCovering Malaysia, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, China

[email protected]

© Calendar-12.com


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Hong KongJakarta

IN THE MEDITERRANEAN this month…

Kenneth HughesDirector – Global Sales

[email protected]

ThailandSlovakia

Kuala Lumpur SingaporeHong Kong South Korea

Cyprus

© Calendar-12.com


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IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA AND ASIA this month...

South AfricaDubai

BotswanaKenyaDubaiSlovakia

Simon SmithRegional DirectorMiddle East, Africa and India

[email protected]

© Calendar-12.com


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Final dates and destinations yet to be determined


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Documents

China – why investors should be embracing the dragon ... · 6-percent level, and businessmen look at that as an immense opportunity.” Moreover, by the end of this decade,