Chicken LittleChicken Little

By: Warren Barhorst

The End is NearThe End is Near

CHICKEN LITTLECHICKEN LITTLE

Do you know the story?Do you know the story?

The Sky Is FallingThe Sky Is Falling, also known as , also known as Chicken LittleChicken Little, , Henny Penny or Chicken Henny Penny or Chicken LickenLicken is an old is an old fable about a about a chicken (or a (or a hare in early versions) who believes in early versions) who believes the sky is falling. The phrase, "The sky is falling," has passed into the English the sky is falling. The phrase, "The sky is falling," has passed into the English language as a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that language as a common idiom indicating a hysterical or mistaken belief that disaster is imminent. This usage is generally derogatory.disaster is imminent. This usage is generally derogatory.

Although sometimes mistakenly listed as one of Although sometimes mistakenly listed as one of Aesop's Fables, the story , the story actually originates from the actually originates from the Jataka Tales of of Buddhist Indian folklore..[1] The basic The basic motif and many of the elements of the tale can be found in the motif and many of the elements of the tale can be found in the Daddabha JatakaDaddabha Jataka (J 322). The (J 322). The JatakasJatakas comprise a large body of folklore dating from around comprise a large body of folklore dating from around Gautama Buddha's time (6th century BCE) to the third century CE. However, this 's time (6th century BCE) to the third century CE. However, this ancient version features a ancient version features a hare as the central character rather than a chicken, as the central character rather than a chicken, and the wise protagonist is a lion (the and the wise protagonist is a lion (the Bodhisattva or future or future Buddha).).From Wikipedia From Wikipedia

Do you understand why the fable exists?Do you understand why the fable exists?

Do you?Do you?

HE SAW THE SIGNSHE SAW THE SIGNS

Central Texas Home Sales Sizzle Slows ((Housing, , Austin-Round Rock, , 11/27/2007) ) AUSTIN (Austin Board of Realtors) – Single-family home AUSTIN (Austin Board of Realtors) – Single-family home sales declined last month according to the latest MLS report sales declined last month according to the latest MLS report from the Austin Board of Realtors. Year-to-date home sales from the Austin Board of Realtors. Year-to-date home sales

for October marked...for October marked... Fewer Listings, Fewer Sales

((Housing, , Wichita Falls, , 11/20/2007) ) WICHITA FALLS ( TimesRecordNews ) – The number WICHITA FALLS ( TimesRecordNews ) – The number

of existing homes sold here dropped from 146 in of existing homes sold here dropped from 146 in

September to 108 last month, marking the second September to 108 last month, marking the second

consecutive month of sales declines. John Caussey...consecutive month of sales declines. John Caussey...

HE SAW THE SIGNSHE SAW THE SIGNS

Houston New Home Starts Down ((Housing, , Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, , 11/9/2007) ) HOUSTON ( Houston Chronicle ) – Developers started 9,725 HOUSTON ( Houston Chronicle ) – Developers started 9,725 single-family homes during this year’s third quarter, a 28 single-family homes during this year’s third quarter, a 28 percent drop from last year’s same period, according percent drop from last year’s same period, according

to Metrostudy...to Metrostudy... Sales Stepping Downward

((Housing, , Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, , 11/9/2007) ) DALLAS ( Dallas Morning News ) – Although not DALLAS ( Dallas Morning News ) – Although not

as steep as September’s 19 percent drop , area as steep as September’s 19 percent drop , area

existing home sales continued stair-stepping existing home sales continued stair-stepping

down. October’s pre-owned home sales fell... down. October’s pre-owned home sales fell...

HE SAW THE SIGNSHE SAW THE SIGNS

Big Three auto sales declineBig Three auto sales decline

By Robert SchoenbergerBy Robert Schoenberger , , Newhouse News ServiceNewhouse News ServiceWednesday, October 24, 2007Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Fed's Bernanke: U.S. GDP to slow, USD remains reserve Fed's Bernanke: U.S. GDP to slow, USD remains reserve currencycurrency

Posted Nov 8th 2007 12:44PM by Posted Nov 8th 2007 12:44PM by Joseph Lazzaro

CEOs, Wall Street warn of recessionCEOs, Wall Street warn of recessionFri Oct 19, 2007 2:52pm EDT By Bill RigbyFri Oct 19, 2007 2:52pm EDT By Bill Rigby

It goes on and on and on….It goes on and on and on….

You’ve heard them all!You’ve heard them all!

““You’ll shoot your eye out”You’ll shoot your eye out”““The market is bad”The market is bad”““No one is buying”No one is buying”““It’s slow out there”It’s slow out there”““Our Price is too high”Our Price is too high”““My mortgage brokers are dried up”My mortgage brokers are dried up”““My referral source went out of My referral source went out of

business”business”Bla…Bla…Bla…Bla…Bla…Bla…

So is the Sky really falling…So is the Sky really falling…

The price of houses seems to have reached a plateau, and there is The price of houses seems to have reached a plateau, and there is reasonable expectancy that prices will decline.” (reasonable expectancy that prices will decline.” (Time Magazine, , December 1, 1947) December 1, 1947)

““Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today’s average price is Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today’s average price is around $8000, out of reach for two-thirds of all buyers.” (around $8000, out of reach for two-thirds of all buyers.” (Science Digest, April 1948) , April 1948)

““If you bought your house since the war, you have made your deal at If you bought your house since the war, you have made your deal at the top of the market. The days when you couldn’t lose on a home the top of the market. The days when you couldn’t lose on a home purchase are no longer with us.” (purchase are no longer with us.” (House Beautiful, November 1948) , November 1948)

““The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of The goal of owning a home seems to be getting beyond the reach of more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs more and more Americans. The typical new house today costs $28,000.” ($28,000.” (Business Week, September 4, 1969) , September 4, 1969)

““Be suspicious of the ‘common wisdom’ that tells you to buy now Be suspicious of the ‘common wisdom’ that tells you to buy now because continuing inflation will force home prices and rents higher and because continuing inflation will force home prices and rents higher and higher.” (NEA Journal, December, 1970) higher.” (NEA Journal, December, 1970)

““The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000. Housing The median price of a home today is approaching $50,000. Housing experts predict that in the future price rises won’t be that great.” (experts predict that in the future price rises won’t be that great.” (National Business, June 1977) , June 1977)

““The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close.” (The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close.” (Money Magazine, January 1981) , January 1981)

So is the Sky really falling…So is the Sky really falling…

“… “… In California for example, it is not unusual to find families of average In California for example, it is not unusual to find families of average means buying $100,000 houses. I’m confident prices have passed their means buying $100,000 houses. I’m confident prices have passed their peak.” (John Wesley English and Gary Emerson Cardiff, THE COMING peak.” (John Wesley English and Gary Emerson Cardiff, THE COMING REAL ESTATE CRASH, 1980) REAL ESTATE CRASH, 1980)

““The golden age of risk free run-ups in home prices is gone.”( The golden age of risk free run-ups in home prices is gone.”( Money Magazine, March 1985) , March 1985)

““If you are looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure If you are looking to buy, be careful. Rising home values are not a sure thing anymore.” (thing anymore.” (Miami Herald, October 25, 1985) , October 25, 1985)

““Most economists agree, a home will become little more than a roof and Most economists agree, a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it was through much of the 1980s.” (much of the 1980s.” (Money Magazine, 1986) , 1986)

““We’re starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for We’re starting to go back to the time when you bought a home not for its potential money making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot.” (its potential money making abilities, but rather as a nesting spot.” (Los Angeles Times, January 31, 1993) , January 31, 1993)

““Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment.” (investment.” (Kiplinger’s Personal Financial Magazine, November 1993) , November 1993)

““A home is where a bad investment is.” (A home is where a bad investment is.” (San Francisco Examiner, , November 17, 1996) November 17, 1996)

““Your house is a roof over your head. It is not an investment.” Your house is a roof over your head. It is not an investment.” (Everything You Know About Money Is Wrong, 2000)(Everything You Know About Money Is Wrong, 2000)

So is the Sky really falling…So is the Sky really falling…

Texas MLS Texas MLS

Building PermitsBuilding Permits

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US Stock MarketUS Stock Market

US UnemploymentUS Unemployment

What’s the Trend?What’s the Trend?

USA Trends

Year 2004 2005 2006

Number of Consumers 116,282,000 117,356,000 118,843,000

Household Income before Tax $ 54,453.00 $ 58,712.00 $ 60,533.00

Average Age 48.5 48.6 48.7

Percent Homeownership 68 67 67

Average Number of Vehicles 1.9 2 1.9

Average Annual Expenditures $ 43,395.00 $ 46,409.00 $ 48,398.00

Average Spent on Insurance $ 4,823.00 $ 5,204.00 $ 5,270.00

WHAT DO THE TRENDS TELL WHAT DO THE TRENDS TELL YOU?YOU?

Successful people succeed in Successful people succeed in any perceived market! any perceived market!

Up or down it does not matter. Up or down it does not matter. How hard are you willing to How hard are you willing to

work?work?

Is Your Business Down?Is Your Business Down?

Do You Have The Right Do You Have The Right Combination?Combination?

Is your business built with multiple Is your business built with multiple revenue streams?revenue streams?Personal LinesPersonal LinesCommercial LinesCommercial LinesLife, Health and DisabilityLife, Health and DisabilityFinancial ServicesFinancial ServicesBrokerageBrokerageFeesFees

Do You Have The Right Do You Have The Right Combination?Combination?

Is your marketing plan multifaceted?Is your marketing plan multifaceted? Centers of influenceCenters of influence

Mortgage BankersMortgage Bankers RealtorsRealtors Car DealersCar Dealers Apartment ComplexesApartment Complexes Property ManagersProperty Managers Home BuildersHome Builders AssociationsAssociations

Business OwnersBusiness Owners Employee ManagementEmployee Management Multi-line Existing AccountsMulti-line Existing Accounts Direct MailDirect Mail Referral ProgramReferral Program AdvertisingAdvertising SponsorshipsSponsorships PartnershipsPartnerships Networking GroupsNetworking Groups

Use the Back Door… Its easier!

OVID:

Let your hook always be cast; in the pool where you least expect it, there will be a fish.

Do You Have The Right Do You Have The Right Combination?Combination?

Are you maximizing the revenue from Are you maximizing the revenue from each Personal Lines account?each Personal Lines account?Auto Auto $100$100HomeHome $120$120FloodFlood $ 50$ 50PULPUL $ 35$ 35IMIM $ 35$ 35LifeLife $350$350DisabilityDisability $400$400HealthHealth $200$200IRAIRA $200$200Its your Call! Make $100 or $1000!Its your Call! Make $100 or $1000!

Do You Have The Right Do You Have The Right Combination?Combination?

Are you maximizing the revenue from Are you maximizing the revenue from each Commercial Lines account?each Commercial Lines account?

Do write the whole account?Do write the whole account? P&CP&C

BOP, Auto, Umbrella, IM, WC, EPLI, E&OBOP, Auto, Umbrella, IM, WC, EPLI, E&O Group HealthGroup Health 401K / Pension401K / Pension Group LifeGroup Life Key Man or Owner LifeKey Man or Owner Life Personal LinesPersonal Lines

OwnerOwnerEmployeesEmployees

Don’t Be a Chicken Little!Don’t Be a Chicken Little!