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Economic Appraisal for Technical Regulation on Pedestrian Protection (I): focused on head protection. Cheol Oh, Ph.D., [email protected] Korean Pedestrian Working Group and Center for Advanced Transportation Research Center The Korea Transport Institute. Estimation of Target Population. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Korea Pedestrian Working Group
The Korea Transport Institute
Economic Appraisal for Technical Economic Appraisal for Technical Regulation on Pedestrian Regulation on Pedestrian
Protection (I):Protection (I):focused on head protectionfocused on head protection
Cheol Oh, Ph.D., [email protected]
Korean Pedestrian Working Group andCenter for Advanced Transportation Research Center
The Korea Transport Institute
-2-2 The Korea Transport Institute
Estimation of Target PopulationEstimation of Target Population
Pedestrian accident study in Korea 128 pedestrian-vehicle collisions (data collected
by the end of March, 2005, on-going)
Fatalities develop ‘probabilistic pedestrian fatality model ’ Apply logistic regression technique
Injuries: Korean accident statistics IHRA ratios (adults and child )
-3-3 The Korea Transport Institute
Target Population Estimation-Target Population Estimation-FatalitiesFatalities
Total Fatalities
Pedestrian Fatalities
No. of Accident for Vehicle Type
No. of Accident for Crash Speed Group
No of Fatalities per Crash Speed Group
Potential Decrease in Fatalities for Given HIC Standard
Decrease in Fatalities for HIC Standard 175 persons
Collision speed 40kph
HIC 1000
-4-4 The Korea Transport Institute
Pedestrian Fatality ReductionPedestrian Fatality Reduction
Fatality reduction by regulation
Total number of pedestrian fatalities
Ratio of head injuries
Ratio of vehicle types
Ratio of collision speed less than a given CS threshold
Pedestrian fatality probability with a given CS
Pedestrian survival probability with a given HIC
-5-5 The Korea Transport Institute
Modeling of Pedestrian FatalityModeling of Pedestrian Fatality
Logistic Regression
-6-6 The Korea Transport Institute
Example: 40kph, HIC 1000Example: 40kph, HIC 1000
-7-7 The Korea Transport Institute
Fatality ReductionFatality Reduction
Collision SpeedHIC
Fatality Reduction(persons)
-8-8 The Korea Transport Institute
Decrease in Serious Injuries - Decrease in Serious Injuries - ChildrenChildren
348,184Total Injuries
60,354Total Pedestrian Injuries
12,071Children Pedestrian Injuries
4,949Head Injuries
3,259Decrease inSerious Injuries
Koreanstatistics
Apply IHRA ratios
-9-9 The Korea Transport Institute
Decrease in Serious Injuries - Decrease in Serious Injuries - AdultsAdults
348,184Total Injuries
60,354Total Pedestrian Injuries
48,282AdultsPedestrian Injuries
14,002Adults Head Injuries
13,036Decrease inSerious Injuries
Koreanstatistics
Apply IHRA ratios
-10-10 The Korea Transport Institute
Benefit EstimationBenefit EstimationDecrease in Fatalities
Decrease in Serious Injured
Social CostPer Fatalities(thousand won)
175 16,295
72,109Social Cost SavingPer Serious Injured(thousand won)20,962
Social Benefit Of Fatalities Decrease(million won)
12,619 341,576
Social Benefit Of Serious Injured Decrease(million won)
Annual Total Benefit(million won)358,377
$1=1,050won
-11-11 The Korea Transport Institute
Benefit Cost RatioBenefit Cost Ratio
Additional Repair CostPer Accident when Equipped with Pedestrian Protection System B/C Ratio
\500,000(Total 177,637,000,000)
\700,000(Total 248,691,800,000)
\900,000(Total \319,746,600,000)
1.93
1.37
1.07
-12-12 The Korea Transport Institute
Closing RemarksClosing Remarks
More extensive study with accident data is still on-going
Attempts to develop a new way of estimating target population with statistical modeling approaches More statistically significant results are expected
