CHELTENHAMFESTIVALBETTING GUIDE

2017

THEORIGINAL

NOW IN ITS

18TH

YEAR

MATT TOMBSPLUS GUEST AUTHORS

• LYDIA HISLOP • TONY KEENAN • ANDY GIBSON • KEVIN BLAKE •

• ANALYSIS OF ALL 28 RACES • FOCUS ON MOST PROFITABLE TRENDS •• ANTE-POST ADVICE & TIPS • RACE TACTICS & STABLE VIBES •

• EXPERT VIEW ON THE IRISH CHALLENGE •

WelcomeEvery Festival has its moments of magic and for many ofus the undoubted highlight last year was the impossibledream coming true when Sprinter Sacre won theChampion Chase three years after his breathtaking firstwin in the race.

There are lots of ways to measure greatness inracehorses. Longevity and breadth of achievement markKauto Star and Desert Orchid out as the best of my era,though mainly for performances away from Cheltenham.I’d give neither the title of best ‘Gold Cup horse’ I’ve seenas neither were ideally suited by the test, though theirgreatness enabled them to win it - I’d have Denman asthe best Gold Cup horse of the modern era.

Istabraq had a quality that made defeat seemunthinkable. He looked like a different species, a termthat has been applied by Willie Mullins to Douvan, forwhom a demolition job in what looks a substandardChampion Chase could be the first real step towardsgreatness. Douvan’s a fabulous prospect but has a toughact to follow visually - at his peak Sprinter Sacre wasthe most brilliant chaser I’ve seen, albeit for some hisoverall record doesn’t compare to Desert Orchid’s orKauto Star’s.

Those last two paragraphs should have got many of youchamping at the bit with different opinions as to howthose great horses measure up and hopefully whettedyour appetite for the prospect of seeing greatnessproved at Prestbury Park in March.

The Festival is evolving fast and this guide is evolvingwith it, with plenty of new features this year. My coreapproach remains the same - to try and give you theedge to bet and win at the Festival.

To do that, firstly, I’ve updated the methodology for theKey Trends for each race. From watching, for example,so many Champion Hurdles, I have theories aboutwhich types are overestimated and underestimated inthe market. Statistics and trends are vital tools that allpunters, whether they admit it or not, use to a greater orlesser extent. However, they add most value when theyback up a theory about a race rather than when used tocreate one.

In order to bet and win, we need to know not justwhich trends are strong numerically, but which areunderestimated by the market and so lead to profitablebetting opportunities. I’ve therefore introduced a “£”sign for trends that have produced profits, togetherwith the actual P&L. Hopefully my explanation of thosetheories, which are backed up by profitable trends, willhelp you focus on the crucial elements of each race.

Historically, for each of the main conditions races therehas been aMajor Players section. However, at the modernFestival it’s become an increasingly fruitless task in lateJanuary to try to work out which horses will contest, forexample, which of the four level weights novices chases.Therefore, my Major Players analysis this year can bepurchased via www.bettrendsshop.co.uk and will includetwo further updates in the run-up to the Festival astargets become clearer.

That uncertainty over targets has its upside.At this stage, utilising the NRNB concession to backtop-class horses in races they are deemed unlikely torun can provide outstanding value. In last year’s guide,Tony Keenan highlighted that Black Hercules might bea forgotten horse from Closutton “regardless of whichnovice chase he runs in”. He was 50/1 NRNB for the JLT,an obviously crazy price with a run. There will be plentyof similarly inflated prices about unlikely runners thisyear - if you’re prepared to lend bookmakers your moneyfor a few weeks, one of those NRNB bets might just payfor the whole week.

In this edition I’m delighted that the Major Players havebeen replaced with analysis from 4 Festival experts.RUK’s Lydia Hislop, professional punter Andy Gibson,ATR’s Kevin Blake and Betfair’s Tony Keenan take youthrough their views on each of the four days.

As usual, the articles at the start of the book explorespecific themes. ATR’s Gary O’Brien looks at the riseand rise of Gordon Elliott and how to extract valuefrom his runners. Tony Keenan considers thinking biasesincluding the natural inclination to favour horses trainedin your home country.

With 10 winning favourites and only one winner beingreturned at greater than 16/1, last year’s Festival was themost predictable I can recall. I’ve therefore explored thefactors that drove that to try and establish whether thatwas a fluke or whether it’s likely to be repeated this year.As part of that I’ve developed the ‘Predictability Factor’(more of which on page 8) to help you focus on the rightpart of the market for each race.

Some regular features are back, but in a slightly differentformat. The Freshnessometer returns - for those whodidn’t buy last year’s guide, it looks at whether it hasbeen an advantage to have been busy or arrive fresh fordifferent races. This year each race has a ranking so therelative benefits of a horse being busy or fresh can beseen. Individual readings for horses are included in theMajor Players online.

A couple of familiar themes have beenmademore formalby being given their own subsections in each chapter.The first is the Shape Of The Handicap, which includesa look at the likely ratings needed to get a run. This canbe a valuable tool in working out which of the marketleaders won’t make the cut, helping to establish ante-post value. The second is Trainer Watch, which looks atthe trainers who tend to do well and poorly in certaintypes of races.

I hope you have the time to digest all the informationand views in this year’s guide and that, by sprinkling onthe magic dust of your own opinions, it helps you makethe Festival a profitable one. For those with less time,the Nature Of The Race gives a brief summary of the keyelements of the race to point you in the right direction.

Above all, I hope you enjoy the challenge of working outwhere the value lies in different races. There’s no suchthing as a bad winner, but when you’ve really worked outa race and its market, backing the winner is a thing ofbeauty and truly a joy forever.

Matt Tombs

1.30 Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle(Grade 1) 2m½f – Old Course

NATURE OF THE RACE

The huge roar that greets the start of the Festivalopener, and the atmosphere that goes with it,has an important impact on the Supreme. Therace starts at the top of the hill and the adrenalinpumping through the jockeys’ arms can feedthrough to the horses.

Traditionally, a big field of noviceswent very quicklyearly on. This makes it more of a stamina test thanmight be expected (especially when the groundhas been heavily watered and is at its slowest onthe first day). Whilst the fields are smaller thesedays, the pace hasn’t slowed and the requirementsremain a sound jumping technique, the tacticalspeed to hold a position and stamina at the trip.

Historically, luck in-running in big fields hadbeen important, especially with novices makingmistakes at a fast gallop. This led to plenty ofshock results. The smaller fields have reduced thiselement of uncertainty and the market leadershave dominated recent renewals.

SPEED AS WELL AS STAMINA NEEDED

Given that they start at the top of the hill, theadrenalin is flowing and the crowd are roaring, it’sno surprise that they go a frenetic gallop in theSupreme. Much is made of how that makes it a testof stamina at the trip and that’s true. Much less ismade of how important basic speed is.

Occasionally a stayer gets outpaced before stayingon strongly to land the spoils close home. That’shappened twice this century when Noland & AlFerof won and the softer the ground, the morelikely that is to happen. However, the vast majorityof winners have the basic boot to lie up with thegallop. No other winner this century has comefrom off the pace and Vautour, Champagne Fever& Sausalito Bay have made virtually all.

It can be underestimated just how important basicspeed is. I assess that primarily from visual cluesbut it’s worth noting that 10 of the last 12 winnershad never run beyond 2m2f. The fact it’s a relativetest of stamina isn’t an indication that a horsedropping down from intermediate trips will be wellsuited.

GRADE 1 CLASS SHINING THROUGH

The Irish programme is set up to provide a seriesof Grade 1s for the top horses in different divisions

to run in. In the 2m novice hurdle division, that’sthe Royal Bond in early December, the FutureChampions at Christmas and the Deloitte (over2m2f) in early February. The mentality of Irishtrainers is to aim the best novices at those races(though dry autumns such as we had this seasoncan mean the top novices aren’t ready for theRoyal Bond).

By contrast, the single Grade 1 in Britain, theTolworth in early January, is not seen as a naturaltarget by many British trainers for the top 2mnovice hurdlers. Perhaps this has led to Grade 1hurdling form being underestimated in the market,especially by British punters. This century, 18 Grade1-winning hurdlers have lined up and 5 have won –6.75pt (38%) profit to level stakes.

Grade 1 form generally has held up well (you’dhave made a small profit by backing every horsethat had contested a Grade 1 hurdle, 9 havingwon this century). The depth of the Irish Grade1s ought to make them obvious form to follow,but Grade 1 hurdling form in general is still beingunderestimated.

RECENT FORM THE CRUCIAL CLUE

With so few horses coming off the Flat now, therunners generally have less racecourse experiencethan they used to. In that sense it makes the racemore like the Bumper in that lightly raced horsesare improving hugely in the run-up to the Festival.Recent form (rather than early-season form whenhorses are getting educated about racing) iscrucial.

18 of the last 20 winners had won their previousstart, including the last 6. There’s been an averageof just over 8 last-time-out winners in the fieldduring that period and if you’d backed them allblind, you’d have made a 17pt (10%) profit. If youthink that those at the front of the market needtaking on, an impressive last-time-out winner at abigger price can often provide good value.

Given how quickly the last-time-out winners areimproving, you need a good excuse to back alast-time-out loser. The only 2 during the last twodecades, Menorah & Arcalis, both got stuck in themud on their previous runs and not handling theground probably remains the most likely reason alast-time-out loser would win this.

There has been quite a few last-time-out losersgo off favourite, such as Cue Card, Cousin Vinny,Marcel, Cardinal Hill, His Song & Finnegan’s Hollow.

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They were often priced up on historic form,ignoring the likelihood that other novices hadimproved past them.

THE EXCITEMENT OF A STRING OF 1s

One problem many punters can never overcome isseeing a string of 1s next to an unbeaten horse’sname and overestimating its chances. The inherentdesire to see such a horse as the next superstarovercomes rational judgment. 12 of the last 14winners had won their previous start, but onlyCaptain Cee Bee & Altior were unbeaten overhurdles.

Last-time-out winners are regularly underbet inthe Supreme if they were beaten earlier on in theirhurdles career, as punters mistakenly think they’vehad their limitations exposed by that earlier defeat.In reality they were often still learning their tradewhen they were beaten, especially when the defeatwas in the autumn – it often has little relevance totheir chances.

If you narrow the group of last-time-out winnersto exclude horses unbeaten over hurdles, yougenerate much more value. In the last decade 49horses have lined up having won their previoushurdle, but not being unbeaten over timber. 7 havewon and if you’d backed them all blind, you’d havemade a level stakes profit of 41pts (83%).

THE RETURN OF THEIRISH SECOND STRING?

The long-term Irish record is really strong, havingwon 12 of the last 21 renewals from just 128 runnersduring that period (12pt (10%) profit backing blind).However, when I was cutting my gambling teethin the ‘90s this wasn’t a race for the classic Irishbanker, but it often was one for vibes – perhapsbecause as the opening race of the meeting,everyone wanted to talk about it.

The sense of anticipation on the morning of theTuesday of Festival week is a joyous thing in itself.At this stage every punter seems ultra-confidentof their views and I love the craic in the pubs inCheltenham that morning. I used to drink in thelate, lamented Dawn Run back then and I alwaysseemed to have half-a-dozen Irish racegoers tellingme that the Irish second string in the Supreme wasa good thing.

It used to be good advice with none of the 5 Irish-trained winners between 1991 & 2000 the shortestin the market of the Irish runners. Destriero,Montelado, French Ballerina & Sausalito Bay wereall the Irish second string (or joint-second of theIrish horses in the market) and Tourist Attraction

was the joint-fourth most popular Irish-trainedhorse in the betting.

Things have changed with 6 of the 9 Irish-trainedwinners since Sausalito Bay, including the last 3,going off favourite or joint-favourite. The perceivedwisdom is that in the modern age the market hasa much better idea of the pecking order of theIrish novices. It’s likely that there’s some truth inthat, but in recent times it has been tied up withthe dominance of the Mullins yard and the brilliantrecord of his hotpots at the meeting.

For thefirst time in4yearsWillie hasn’t hadabankerin this over the winter. Melon has emerged as theante-post favourite at the time of going to print butthat’s based on homework and a maiden win. Givenhow open the Supreme looks this year, the valuemay be with a second string, just as it used to.

Willie Mullins is 5/32 – P&L +48.5pts(152%)

Last-time-out winners, previously beatenover hurdles, are 7/49 in the last decade– P&L +41pts (83%)

Grade 1 hurdle winners are 5/18 thiscentury – P&L +6.75pts (38%)

6 of the last 7 winners came from thefront 4 in the market – P&L +11.5pts (37%)

11 of the last 13 winners had run in at least4 hurdles

Irish-trained runners have won 12 of thelast 21 renewals

8 of the last 12 winners had run on goodground over hurdles

The last 3 winners were top-rated onBHA ratings

18 of the last 20 winners (including thelast 6) won their previous start

Since 2007 only 1 of the 49 horses thatstarted on the Flat has been placed

Since 1992 all 33 horses wearingheadgear have been beaten

Only 2 of the last 12 winners had runbeyond 2m2f under Rules

Horses aged 7 or older are 2/36 thiscentury

KEY TRENDS

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TOO EARLY FOR HEADGEAR

As set out in some of the later chapters, headgearhas been a real positive in certain Festival races,in particular for rejuvenating horses in handicapchases. By contrast, traditional headgear such asblinkers ought to play much less of a part in racesfor young horses such as the Supreme (the morerecent fashion for hoods which seek to calm ahorse down, i.e. broadly the opposite impact oftraditional headgear, can be important in this sortof race). That’s been the case – since Flown wonin blinkers in 1992, all 33 runners in headgear havebeen beaten, only 3 of which managed a place.Other than hoods, I’d be wary of horses sportingheadgear in the Supreme.

TRAINER WATCH

Some trainers have proved similarly effectiveacross the board at the Festival. Despite sometimesbeing seen as a specialist in training 2m hurdlers,30 of Nicky Henderson’s 55 winners have beenover fences. Gordon Elliott’s 8 winners have beenspread across a broad range of races.

Others have been very specialised – 42 of WillieMullins’ 48 wins have come in conditions races andhe’s never won a Festival handicap chase. In eachchapter I’ll be highlighting trainers who have verygood or very bad records in a race (or type of race).

This has been a race dominated by the big stables.Willie Mullins has won it 5 times, Nicky Henderson3 times, and Paul Nicholls & Noel Meade have bothwon it twice. The only renewal in recent times thatdidn’t go to one of the big yards was when CaptainCee Bee won for Eddie Harty in 2008.

Willie has had 5 winners from his 32 runners so far.If you’d backed them all blind, you’d have madea profit to level stakes of 48.5pts (152%). Thoseprofits derive from a couple of big-priced winnersback in the day, Ebaziyan (40/1 in 2007) & TouristAttraction (25/1 in 1995). Willie’s runners rarelygo off at big prices these days but whilst he hasdominated the Supreme markets in recent times,this year his novices, Melon apart, lack hype andmay provide value at decent prices.

KEY RACES

Whilst it is usually even more of a test of staminaat the 2m trip than the Supreme, the WeatherbysChampion Bumper has been the best guide tothis numerically, having produced 3 of the last 6winners, with Champagne Fever becoming thesecond horse to do the double, twenty years afterMontelado.

However, whilst Cinders And Ashes (5th), Al Ferof(2nd) & Back In Front (3rd) all ran well in the previousseason’s Bumper before winning this, there have

been some costly losers as well. 3 ChampionBumper winners have recently been beaten asshort-priced favourites – Dunguib (3rd at 4/5 in2010), Cue Card (4th at 7/4 in 2011) & Cousin Vinny(5th at 9/4 in 2009). Unsurprisingly, form from theprevious year’s Champion Bumper plays a big partin the market and those trying to do the doubleactually have a poor record – often being suited bymore of a test of stamina.

Last season’s Champion Bumper has proved aweakrenewal but it got a welcome boost when Ballyandywon the Betfair Hurdle off 135. He might be bettersuited by the Neptune, but if he lines up in theSupreme he’s likely to go off a much bigger pricethan many recent Champion Bumper winners. The2015 version may also be relevant. Moon Racer wasa taking winner and looks to have more speed thanmost Champion Bumper winners. His early-seasonform hadn’t worked out as well as expected untilBallyandy won the Betfair Hurdle and, although 8,he’s still a bit of an unknown quantity at this stage.

The Grade 1 Bar One Racing Royal Bond NoviceHurdle is over 2m at Fairyhouse in early December.Whilst Like-A-Butterfly in 2002 was the last RoyalBond winner to double up in the Supreme, bothBack In Front & Champagne Fever have won theSupreme after being beaten in the Royal Bond.The dry autumn may have meant some of the bestnovices weren’t ready for this but Airlie Beachdominated her field from the front, taking herrecord to 7/7. However, she may well head for theMares’ Novices’ Hurdle instead.

The Paddy Power Future Champions NoviceHurdle at Leopardstown at Christmas hasproduced one Supreme winner this century – GoNative in 2009 (who took advantage of HurricaneFly’s absence in the Supreme having been 10l 2nd

to him in the Future Champions). Saturnas hadbeen 6½l 2nd to Airlie Beach in the Royal Bond andtook advantage of her absence for a comfortable2l success in the Future Champions. However, hewas reported to have made a noise when bombingin the Deloitte.

The Grade 1 Deloitte Novice Hurdle atLeopardstown in early February is run over 2m2f.This ‘intermediate’ distance has led it to producingboth Supreme and Neptune winners (the relativetest of stamina at 2m½f provided by the Supremeand the relative test of speed at 2m5f providedby the Neptune means they are more similartests than might be anticipated). The Deloitteregularly attracts the best Irish novices. Vautour& Champagne Fever have done the Deloitte-Supreme double in recent times, emulating BraveInca & Like-A-Butterfly earlier in the century.

For much of this year’s renewal, Bunk Off Earlylooked like he’d hack up but he was outstayed byBacardys, going down by ¾l on soft ground. His

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best form on the Flat was over a mile and a dropback in trip to the Supreme would look to suit himideally. The winner Bacardys looks much moreof a staying type and Willie Mullins pointed himtowards the Albert Bartlett afterwards.

The 32 Red Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown in earlyJanuary has been lost to the weather twice thiscentury but even allowing for that, it has been adisappointing guide to the Supreme, producingonly Noland who did the double in 2006. Just 11weeks after making his debut in an Irish point,Finian’s Oscar bolted up in this year’s year’srenewal, and subsequently easily won a Listedevent at Exeter over 2m1f.

He’s clearly a precocious and professional typeand the consensus is that he’s more likely to run inthe Neptune. However, from the limited evidencewe’ve seen so far, he jumps well and looks toappreciate a strong gallop, which implies theSupreme may suit. If he does line up, he’s the typeto be underestimated with lazy-thinking puntersassuming because he’d won a 3m point that hecan’t be quick enough for a Supreme.

The Grade 2 Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle, nowrun at Punchestown over 2m in early January, wasmoved forward 3 weeks in 2014 since when it’sproduced 2 Supreme winners – Douvan & Vautour.Previously it was too closely sited to the Deloitte,but the new pattern allowed Vautour to take inboth. Willie relied on a much less-hyped novice thisyear but Crack Mome fluffed his lines at the lastallowing Any Second Now to sweep by. The winneris described as very raw and hasn’t been entered atthe Festival, being seen as a longer-term prospect.Crack Mome went off 4/11 so much better wasclearly expected and he’s one to follow the vibesfor in the run up to the Festival.

PREDICTABILITY FACTOR

In the ‘90s the Supremehad huge fields and along string of hotpotsgot turned over. Therewere big-priced winnersincluding three goingoff at 50/1, 25/1 & 25/1between 1994 & 1996.There has been the

odd shock winner in more recent times, notablyEbaziyan at 40/1 in 2007, but the Supreme isbecoming a more predictable race.

Perhaps the most important change has beenfield sizes as far fewer ex-Flat horses take partnow. When French Ballerina led home a field of 30in 1998, she was 1 of 23 runners that had startedtheir careers on the Flat. Last season, only PenglaiPavilion had begun his career on the level, going

off 33/1 when 29l 12th to Altior. With fields of 12,12 & 14 having faced the tapes in 3 of the last 4renewals, the luck in-running that was traditionallysuch a feature of the Supreme is much reduced.

Another factor is the concentration of the besthorses in far fewer hands. With the leading trainers(and sometimes owners, especially when theyretain a jockey) having so many of the leadingnovices – they have a much better chance ofestablishing a pecking order at home. Inevitablythat feeds into the market.

Whilst the overall reading of 73 makes it the fifth-most unpredictable of the 18 conditions racesat the Festival, that is probably misleading. Theposition in the market of the last 9 winners (mostrecent first) has been 2-1-1-2-6-3-4-6-4 (duringwhich time the reading is 32).

In the last 7 renewals, if you’d backed the front 4in the market (including those equal-fourth), you’dhave located 6 of the 7 winners. From 31 bets you’dhave recorded an 11.5pt (37%) profit. It may wellbe that that is the right part of the market to belooking for winners on the day now.

FRESHNESSOMETER

The hullabaloo thatgoes with the Supremecan cause a problemfor over-fresh horses.These are young,inexperienced types(especially now with adearth of battle-hardenedex-Flat horses running).The adrenalin in thejockeys can flow into thehorses and those comingoff a long break can betoo keen, even though thisis usually run at a stronggallop. Cue Card started7/4 favourite in 2011 buthad been off since early

December and ruined his chance by pulling toohard. Jezki did likewise in 2013, having not run sinceChristmas, his jumping also looking rusty.

Last year Altior became only the second winnersince 1993 not to have run in the calendar year,showing it can be done (he’d been keen in hisprevious starts but settled well in the Supreme,illustrating that you shouldn’t jump to conclusionsabout whether a horse will settle). However, whilstthe Freshnessometer reading is middle of therange, I think the benefit of recent match practice,both to take the freshness out of a horse and tohelp their jumping, is generally an advantage in theSupreme.

73

(13th-lowest at theFestival)

Days since last run 41.7Runs that season 3.5

2520151050

11.9

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ROLL OF HONOUR

Year Form Winner Age Weight SP Trainer Runners Last Race (No Of Days)

2016 1111 Altior 6 11-7 4/1 N Henderson 14 1st Kempton Nov. Hurdle (80)

2015 2111 Douvan 5 11-7 2/1F W Mullins (IRE) 12 1st Moscow Flyer Nov. Hurdle (59)

2014 111 Vautour 5 11-7 7/2JF W Mullins (IRE) 18 1st Deloitte Hurdle (30)

2013 1231 Champagne Fever 6 11-7 5/1 W Mullins (IRE) 12 1st Deloitte Hurdle (31)

2012 2111 Cinders And Ashes 5 11-7 10/1 D McCain 19 1st Rossington Main Nov. Hurdle (52)

2011 F311 Al Ferof 6 11-7 10/1 P Nicholls 15 1st Betfair Nov. Hurdle (31)

2010 1212 Menorah 5 11-7 12/1 P Hobbs 18 2nd Ascot Nov. Hurdle (24)

2009 12121 Go Native 6 11-7 12/1 N Meade (IRE) 20 1st Johnstown Nov. Hurdle (16)

2008 11 Captain Cee Bee 7 11-7 17/2 E Harty (IRE) 22 1st Punchestown Nov. Hurdle (115)

2007 21 Ebaziyan 6 11-7 40/1 W Mullins (IRE) 22 1st Thurles Mdn Hurdle (40)

LEADING TEN-YEAR GUIDES

Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Mar 11): 3(Al Ferof 2nd, Cinders And Ashes unpl, Champagne Fever 1st)

Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle (Feb 12): 2 (Champagne Fever 1st, Vautour 1st)Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle (Jan 14): 2 (Vautour 1st, Douvan 1st)32Red Casino Novices’ Hurdle (Dec 26): 2 (Menorah 1st, Altior 1st)

Attheraces.com Champion INH Flat Race (Apr 27): 2 (Champagne Fever 1st, Altior unpl)

THE INSIDE WORD

Derren Maggs – BWIN

Immediately check the winningtime of the Supreme Novices Hurdle,

it is nearly always run at breakneck speed- the time gives a clear indication on how

quick the ground is running forthe meeting

APPROXIMATE SUPREME RACE TIMEGUIDE TO GROUND CONDITIONS

Quicker than 3m48s = good to firm3m48s – 3m53s = good

3m3s – 3m58s = good to softSlower than 3m58s = soft or worse

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55

Kevin Blake - Day OneBANKER OR BUST - MELON

In recent years we have grown accustomed toWillie Mullins producing a short-priced contenderfor the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Vautour andDouvan duly delivered the goods in 2014 and 2015respectively and while Min found Altior too goodlast year, he continued the trend of Mullins findinga top-notch contender for the race.

However, this season has been a bit different. Froman early stage of the campaign, both Willie Mullinsand Ruby Walsh expressed the view that theirnovice hurdlers might be up to usual standards,but this didn’t stop the annual guessing game as towhich of their horses might be “the one.”

The first one tomove in themarket for the SupremeNovices’ Hurdle was Senewalk, with this movelikely to have been based on a positive mentionhe was given by Rich Ricci in an interview on AtThe Races long before this National Hunt seasonhad started in earnest. Unfortunately for those thatgot involved in that ambitious plunge, Senewalkproved disappointing on his Irish and hurdlingdebut at Punchestown in November and hasn’tbeen seen since.

Mind, there was another Mullins horse that wasmore quietly backed in the Supreme Novices’Hurdle market during the summer months and itwasn’t one in the Rich Ricci silks. His name wasMelon.

A son of Medicean from a family best known fortheir exploits over middle distances on the Flat,Melon hadn’t looked too far out of the ordinarywhen winning a race over a mile-and-a-half atMoulins in August 2015, but as we’ve seen timeand time again, Willie Mullins can take horses thatlook ordinary in France and turn them into Grade 1winners over jumps in Ireland.

The main problem his backers had was that Melonwas nowhere to be seen for much of the season.It wasn’t until January that he was entered for arace and he made his Irish and hurdling debut ina maiden at Leopardstown in late-January. Withracecourse rumours suggesting he had done aparticularly impressive piece of work the weekbefore, the market was in no doubt of what itexpected and the five-year-old was sent off at 4/9to beat a solid rival in the shape of Broken Soul.

What followed was a performance that wasundoubtedly pleasing. While he raced a bit morefreely than ideal, there was a lot to like about hisjumping technique. He travelled strongly to thefront in between the final two flights and strodeaway to win as he liked by 10 lengths.

It seems likely that he won’t run again until theSupreme Novices’ Hurdle and thus he will goto that race with just one run over hurdles to hisname. With Willie Mullins being a keen utiliser ofschooling hurdles, it is highly likely that Melon willhave much more hurdling experience to his namethan his public record will suggest on the day.

Mind, one aspect that is worth considering is thathe just got a shade wound up in the preliminariesat Leopardstown and he had been noted as racingfreely in his races on the Flat in France. If thereis any sort of a mental chink in his armour, it willbe ruthlessly exploited by the atmosphere andoccasion of the Cheltenham Festival.

With quite a few of Willie Mullins’ big gunshaving fallen by the wayside, Melon looks set tobe amongst his shortest-price contenders of theweek. However, for all that he has a big reputation,everything has a price and it is difficult to justifyhis position as the short-priced favourite based onwhat he has achieved thus far. He is making themarket for the rest and looking for one to take himon with appeals as being the way to go.

BUST

Legends of CheltenhamARKLE

The Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase is named after the horse widely recognised as thegreatest steeplechaser of the post-war era. Arkle recorded a hat-trick of victories in the Cheltenham GoldCup in 1964, 1965 and 1966. Often referred to simply as “Himself”, he won 27 of his 35 races, and at thepeak of his career, Timeform rated him a remarkable 212.

49

Andy Gibson - Day OneI have developed a few strategies for theCheltenham Festival that have proved to be mosthelpful to my betting studies over the years. I haveno doubt that there will be many other peoplewho have used the tactics well before I came upwith the ideas for myself. The main ingredientto any strategy I might want to consider is extrahours spent in front of my computer examiningthe merits of each potential line of attack. I believethis approach has more chance of succeedingcompared to the one we have all tried many times- leaving ourselves under-prepared and overlyoptimistic!

The first strategy I would like to share is how Ichoose the type of market to play in for each race.I spend a lot of time researching the ‘without thefavourite’ markets in preparation for each March; asa starting point, I find it very useful to analyse eachfavourite in depth for 13 of the 14 Grade One events(I tend to leave the Bumper alone in this process)before marking them on a scale of one to ten.

On the opening day I have marked the Arkle Chaseup as a race to avoid the favourite; assuming Altiortakes his place in the line-up. No surprise there…..He is currently trading at a best priced 4/11 forthe race and he will clearly win the Arkle Chaseproviding he jumps round error-free.

In my experience, when a horse has previouslybeen comprehensively beaten by a favourite likeAltior with a particularly sexy profile, the horse inquestion can often become more forgotten aboutthan his profile deserves in the overall market forthat contest.

Leading up to last season’s Arkle Chase, the HenryDe Bromhead novice Sizing John had finishedseveral lengths behind Douvan on four separateoccasions prior to March 2016. One can completelyunderstand, therefore, why Sizing John wasgenerally available at a big price in the main marketas a result of having offered four pieces of directevidence which all clearly stated he could not finishin front of the hot favourite. The significance of thiselevated price is that the horse in question will thenoften, at least initially, trade at a pro-rata price inthe market without the favourite. This potentialoutcome is always worth close inspection. Afterall, a reproduction of any of those beatings wouldresult in Sizing John finishing in the first four in theArkle just as certainly as they support the notionthat he will not beat the favourite. Therefore theperipheral market is not necessarily responding inthe right direction due to the weight and authorityheld in the main win market. Of course thisapproach does not always work out as well as it didwith Sizing John. Nevertheless, he is the standouthorse to use as an example for this strategy giventhe fact that his inferiority to Douvan had alreadybeen emphasised on four separate occasions.

The 2017 Arkle Chase market sees Altior as thedeserved short-priced favourite and includes anoverpriced horse that has twice finished behindhim. The horse in question is, of course, Charbelfrom the Kim Bailey yard. He finished six lengthsbehind Altior in the Grade One Henry VIII Chaseat Sandown and was beaten twelve-and-a-halflengths by the same horse in the 2016 SupremeHurdle. A reproduction of either of thoseperformances would surely result in Charbelfinishing in the first three or four in the Arkle Chase.Furthermore, I think there are grounds to believethat Charbelmight be a little better than he lookedin the finish in that most recent defeat at Sandown.He had endured a protracted battle in the first halfof the race with the front-runner Marracudja and,as a consequence, was not likely to be seen in hisbest light when challenged by Altior in the finalstages of that contest.

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Back to the ‘Sizing John theory’ - as a result ofthe comprehensive nature of those two beatings,Charbel was not to be found in the first ten inthe betting for the Arkle until very recently; heis currently available at a best priced 16/1. Eventhough he has an all-important positiveCheltenhamFestival run to his name, he still makes little appealin the main market and will be of particular interestin the ‘without Altior’ market only when the NonRunner No Bet rules come into play.

I am sure Kim Bailey has a choice of targets for hisstar novice and one could understand any trainerdeciding to avoid the combination of Altior andplus whichever substitute Willie Mullins might runinstead of Min. Nevertheless, if he does line upin the Arkle Chase I want to have backed him asearly as possible and, at the same time, safe in theknowledge that my stakes will not be at risk in theevent of him being steered elsewhere.

The day that the ‘Non Runner No Bet’ rules (NRNB)are applied with most firms represents a crucialtime for my festival betting campaign. Trying tospot overpriced horses like Charbel that have beenoverlooked in the early markets is an importantpart of my research. Conversely, it is also importantto remember that most horses in the early marketsare usually available at bigger odds closer to thefestival or, indeed, on the day of the race. ThereforeI think we need to spend time carefully consideringwhich markets we choose in the early stages oftheir development and which ones we leave untilcloser to the festival. Easier said than done!

A relatively new factor has to be taken on boarddue to the influence of Willie Mullins. I rememberlast season thinking that horses like Smashing andVillage Vic were interesting outsiders for the 2016Ryanair Chase (as it turned out, I was well wide ofthe mark) only for Vautour to be re-routed late inthe day and thus change the whole complexionof the race. Whatever, Willie Mullins best two-milenovice chaser is almost certainlyMin; consequently,I think we can be fairly safe in the knowledge thathe is not going to enter a better horse late in theday.

In the opening race of the festival, the WillieMullins-trained Melon was promoted to favouritismafter a wide-margin victory in a maiden hurdle atLeopardstown at the end of January. My sectionaltime comparisons with both Lets Dance and PetitMouchoir (who both competed on the same card)suggest that Melon will face a very different test inthe Supreme Hurdle which is usually run at an endto end gallop. He was about four seconds slowerthan the other two horses from the final hurdlein the home straight first time around until thewinning line; furthermore, most if not all of thosetime differences can be accounted for in the earlyto middle part of his race. Melon might turn out tobe another Willie Mullins superstar; however, on thelimited evidence available currently, he would notbe in the top few in the Supreme market if he wastrained elsewhere.

The David Pipe-trained Moon Racer had appearedto be a solid enough looking favourite (5/10 inmy early ratings) for the Supreme Hurdle prior toMelon’s wide-margin success at Leopardstown.Moon Racer has not exactly set the world alight ineither of his two races over the smaller obstaclesto date. That said, he should be unbeaten inhis six races under Rules and would be but foran unfortunate passage through the field atPunchestown in late April. His last-time-out victoryin the Sharp Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham inNovember was gained in a slowly run affair whichmay have suited him more than a couple of hisrivals. One would struggle to give him a mark muchabove 140 based on the proximity of the 136-ratedMirsaale in the runner-up spot. This implies that heis the current second favourite for the Suprememainly due to his Champion Bumper form ratherthan through anything he has achieved over thesmaller obstacles. The stronger contenders for thisrace are often rated closer to the 150 mark, so it willbe interesting to see what happens toMoon Racer’smark if his connections manage to get anotherrace into him prior to the festival. At the time ofwriting we have not seen him since November and,whilst this might be simply to do with his trainerwanting to avoid winter soft ground with his stablestar; the fact that Moon Racer missed almost thewhole of last season through injury has to be acause for some concern given the length of hiscurrent absence from the track.

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He may have scored a relatively low mark in my‘favourite ratings’; nonetheless, this is at least inpart due to him missing such a chunk of both thisseason and last. Conversely, if he does return torace prior to the festival and wins in good style, Iwould be keen to re-evaluate his claims. I think ifhe lines up fit and in form on the day, Moon Racerwill very likely finish thereabouts in the SupremeHurdle.

The ante-post market for the Supreme Hurdlepaints a rather cloudy picture at this momentin time and, in my view, requires a patient andconsidered approach. My preferred strategy is towait for the NRNB rules to come into play andconsider supporting both of the British-trained JPMcManus four-year-olds each-way, assuming theprices still favour such a strategy at that time.

Charli Parcs and Defi Du Seuil are arguably thetwo best juveniles we have seen this season andone would imagine that the owner will be keento keep them apart in March and, therefore, runone of them in the opening race of the festival. Ithink that his decision could be a late one as it willpresumably be, at least in part, going-related; onewould assume that Defi Du Seuil will probably lineup in the race that appears most likely to offer theslowest ground.

I tend to place the vast majority of my monies onthe graded races at Cheltenham in March as I dothink that the festival handicaps are particularlydifficult puzzles to solve. That said, I still generateshortlists for most of the handicaps even if some ofthem end up with rather too many names on themto be referred to as a shortlist!

One horse that caught my eye earlier on in theseason for the three-mile-plus handicap chase onthe opening day is the Colin Tizzard-trained BallyLongford.

In December at Cheltenham he was stepped upmarkedly in distance by his trainer; presumablyas he had previously struggled to go the pacewhen competing over two miles at Cheltenham’sNovember meeting. This was a significant step upin trip for him which is not the only time his trainerhas used this tactic with an Alan Potts recruitpreviously with the Henry De Bromhead yard.Bally Longford jumped and travelled like the besthorse throughout that three-mile-and-two-furlonghandicap chase (which was run on the NewCourse)before not quite getting home up the final hill. Hehandled the good ground well on that day and thefact that the opening day handicap equates to adrop back in trip and on the old course is in hisfavour.

He finished down the field at Kempton on hisnext start; however, I do not think that the courseplayed to his strengths in the way that Cheltenhamhad on his previous outing. He was always doingtoo much on this flat track and immediately afterthat contest I decided to mark him up should hereturn to compete at Cheltenham. I am under theimpression that Bally Longford heads straight forthe festival next. Therefore, his current mark of 135would see him competing from near the bottomof the handicap based on the evidence of the lastfive years.

Andy Gibson is a professional punter, racinganalyst, At The Races pundit, and founder ofwww.thecheltenhamtrail.com

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Lydia Hislop - Day OneLydia Hislop is a leading presenter for Racing UK andeach jumps season writes the popular weekly column,The Road To Cheltenham, for sportinglife.com. Hereshe envisages how some of the key 2017 Festivalraces are going to be run and whether the bettingmarkets match up.

Stan James Champion HurdleUntil the news broke in that first Annie Power andthen Faugheen would miss the premier event of thedivision they had combined to dominate for the pasttwo seasons, this was one of the most difficult racesto imagine.

Such was the former superiority of the 2015 winner,there were three potential variations: Faugheenreturns nearly or as good as ever, Faugheen returnssome way below his best or Faugheen is a no-showagain. After Willie Mullins was forced to miss threecomeback assignments and finally had to withdrawhim from the Festival itself, we should have been leftwith just one.

But – at the time of writing, at least – I make it two.

That’s because Faugheen exiting stage left raises thepossibility of Yorkhill entering stage right. Admittedlythis would be a seismic shift in campaign but such isthe lure of the Champion Hurdle – a race Mullins hasdominated by winning four of the last six editions – it’san option we must consider. Team Mullins will alreadybe a long way through their thought process.

The decision hinges on whether Mullins believeshe can switch Yorkhill’s discipline from chasing tohurdling without (presumably) the comfort of a preprace. Walsh will be angling for decent mount in this –and Nichols Canyon ain’t it – but this is a dilemma onwhich the trainer will indubitably make the final call.

The track record for switching chasers to GradeOne hurdles with immediate success – as my fellowwriter Tony Keenan has pointed out – is pretty poor.That’s perhaps because, as I’ve argued elsewhere,the standard of switcher is self-selectingly a factorbecause their connections were aspirational enoughinitially to believe better could be achieved overfences and discouraged enough abruptly to engagereverse.

Yorkhill perhaps conforms to the latter reasoning –his tendency to jump left has become disconcertinglymarked over fences – and yet not to the former. Wereit not for sharing a stable with the last two ChampionHurdle winners, Yorkhill would be running in it thisyear.

Let’s see it in Mullins’ ownwords: “Leaving Cheltenhamin March after he won the Neptune, I thought he hadwhat it takes to be a Champion Hurdle contender thisyear. We thought long and hard about going chasingwith him instead so the next few months should be

very informative.”

He said that in January when he still seemed confidentthat both Faugheen and Annie Power would make itto the Festival. Earlier that month, he had chosen notto enter Yorkhill in the Champion Hurdle. In the spaceof a week he went from having three horses of thestandard required to win this prestigious contest tonone of them holding an active entry.

Let’s say Mullins opts to supplement Yorkhill on 8March. You could see his logic: the JLT doesn’t payso much, there’s a monster in the Arkle, this horsehas already beaten Yanworth in last year’s Neptuneand a line through stablemate Min’s Supreme secondmay inform him that Buveur D’Air and Petit Mouchoirare assailable. Those last three horses mentioned arethe shortest-priced horses in the Champion Hurdlemarket.

So let’s run with this variation. I think we know PetitMouchoir will lead. It’s probably one of the reasonswhy he’s improved so much for Henry de Bromheadsince leaving Mullins under the terms of The GreatDivorce from Gigginstown.

He’s a free-going front-runner but that hasn’tprevented him from seeing out his races, mostimpressively with his most recent relentless gallop tovictory in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

However, my concern is whether he can sustain suchtactics on an undulating track such as Cheltenham.It’s surely no coincidence that his best efforts havecome at Leopardstown, Aintree and (had he stoodup) Newcastle. He was only eighth, 15 lengths behindAltior, in the Supreme last year and although that’sclearly not a reflection of his likely current standingwith third-placed Buveur D’Air now, it does raise somedoubt.

However, his rivals rightly won’t risk underestimatinghim so, although I think he might not last out, theywon’t be letting him establish too long a lead. TheNew One, you would imagine, would be chaser-in-chief under the sort of positive ride he palpably needsat this trip.

He’ll be pressing on the approach to the second last,if not sooner, so Petit Mouchoir won’t be getting asecond’s peace – another reason why his chances arecompromised. Yet, again, it’s hard to imagine The NewOne sustaining his challenge to the final flight with hishabit of jumping right seemingly not eradicated by anow not-so-new bit.

We’re imagining Yorkhill in this race so Walsh wouldhave him tracking the pace hard up the inner. Hedoesn’t want to be anywhere else, particularly on ahorse that adjusts left; he’ll also seek to garner asmuch cover as possible because his mount can oftenbe keen as well. The strong pace set by Petit Mouchoirwill suit his purposes ideally.

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Walsh has commented that he went for home “anhour too soon” when squeezing Yorkhill through onthe inside of the home turn in the Neptune, hittingthe front well before the last. Here you’d imagine himaiming to produce Yorkhill to lead at the last.

He won’t be making all, as he did with both Faugheenand Annie Power. This would be more of a classicChampion Hurdle ride and, in truth, it’s a prettystraightforward one.

Yanworth is also a strong stayer at the trip but givenhow outpaced he became against The New Oneand My Tent Our Yours at Kempton, you’d imaginehis rider’s hand will be forced rather than be able todictate his own preferred tactics to the contest. Thishorse will need to wind up his effort from before thesecond last and could end up flat to the boards. Inshort, he needs a Faugheen-type ride but he’s not asgood as Faugheen. A recent setback, however minor,won’t have helped either.

Buveur D’Air won’t be much further away than Yorkhill– like him, he can’t afford to let Petit Mouchoir loose,undulations or no undulations. His rider’s task will besimilar to Walsh’s – he’ll be making headway from thepenultimate flight and you suspect he’d be Yorkhill’sfinal challenger somewhere between the last andthe line.

This horse has been at his most impressive whenridden for a turn of foot from a position not too farout of his ground. He was the third-best horse in lastyear’s Supreme but nonetheless the waiting tacticswere a tad overdone and the margin of his inferiorityexaggerated. What we don’t know is whether he is aseffective on a sound surface and whether that was afactor also at play behind Altior twelve months ago.

There are other potential players. It was significantNicky Henderson chose to emphasise that we“mustn’t leave out” of any calculations Buveur D’Air’sstable companion Brain Power in the minutes after theother’s win at Sandown in February.

This horse has manned up considerably this seasonand boasts robust current handicap form whereashis key rivals are a bunch of second-season hurdlerswho are all promise but no proof when it comes toproviding evidence that they’re up to ChampionHurdle standard. (Even if that’s a lesser standard thanmight once have appeared necessary.)

Brain Power missed joining Buveur D’Air at Sandowndue to the testing ground but you can rely onHenderson to produce him at his peak on Tuesday14 March. My chief concern about him, however, is hisability to reproduce his best form on a left-handedtrack.

It might yet be coincidence but he has raced thisway round only three times from nine starts: winninga Newcastle bumper on his debut, well beaten in an

Aintree bumper (albeit he was hampered) and runningbelow his best in Cheltenham’s Greatwood Hurdle(though that was his seasonal debut). As you can see,this evidence is far from conclusive but it unsettles mesufficiently to believe he’s too short.

Entertaining the chances of Sceau Royal perhapsrequires an even more forgiving interpretationbut bear with me. He impressed at the start of thisseason with an improving profile that culminated incomfortable success in Wincanton’s Elite Hurdle.Next time in the Fighting Fifth, he jumped withtypical accuracy and travelled into the race relativelysmoothly until floundering when asked for his effortin the mud.

Sceau Royal has never handled soft ground; his keyasset, slick jumping and a swift getaway, is largelyneutralised in testing conditions. I’d suggest youthrow out than run. Yet you can’t turn to his juvenileform for succor because he was way below his bestat Cheltenham and Aintree last year – but then sowere the rest of Alan King’s team. We know this horsehandles Cheltenham, after all, because of his takingsuccess there in October.

You can imagine both him and Brain Power being heldup in mid-division in this Champion Hurdle and if I’mhaving to forgive ‘n’ forget, I’d rather be taking each-way the horse almost five times the price of the other(who admittedly has the more proven level of form todate). Superb Story has even more to find than SceauRoyal and yet is half the price.

It should be rude to overlook Nichols Canyon, given hewas third last year, but nothing he’s done this season– perhaps including his wide-margin defeat of Jer’sGirl – appears to indicate that he’s in anything like thatform currently.

He was already struggling when coming down atthe last behind Petit Mouchoir in the Irish ChampionHurdle after jumping characteristically right atmost obstacles. That’s a habit no better suited toCheltenham than it is to Leopardstown and unless hesplutters suddenly into life, he would appear to be upagainst it.

Finally, we should consider the novice Moon Racer,whose participation in the Champion Hurdle trainerDavid Pipe said would require the race falling apart… Ifthey are tempted to roll the big dice, then this horse’slack of experience becomes an issue. He’s only twiceraced over hurdles and not since December. Thatmay prove insufficient even in a depleted ChampionHurdle.

So that brings us back to our two variations andperhaps it’s only the conclusion rather than themethod that differs. The likely tempo of this raceleads me to believe it will be set up for either Yorkhillor Buveur D’Air to pounce late. Right now, only one ofthem holds an entry.