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Monetary Policy Report 3/11
Charts
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Chart 1.1 Projected output gap¹⁾ for Norway's trading partners.Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2014 Q4
MPR 3/11
MPR 2/11
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-3
-5
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-3
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 20131) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between GDP and projected potential GDP for Norway's trading partnersSources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.2 Yield spreads against German 10-year government bonds. Percentage points. 1 January 2008 – 13 October 2011
Greece
Ireland
Portugal
Spain
Italy
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Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11Source: Thomson Reuters
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Chart 1.3 Developments in equity markets. Index.1 January 2008 = 100. 1 January 2008 – 13 October 2011
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Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11Source: Thomson Reuters
US Euro area Norway Japan Emerging markets
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Chart 1.4 Yields on 10-year government bonds. Per cent. 1 January 2003 – 13 October 2011
US
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011Source: Thomson Reuters
US
Germany
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Chart 1.5 Difference between 3-month money market rate and expected key rates¹⁾. Percentage points. 5-day moving average. 1 January 2008 – 13 October 2011
US
Norway
Euro area
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1
0
1
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-111) Expected key rates are derived from Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates. Norges Bank's projections for market key rate expectations are used for NorwaySources: Bloomberg L.P., Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.6 Key policy rate, money market rate¹⁾, yield on 5-year covered bonds²⁾ and weighted average lending rate on new residential mortgages³⁾.Per cent. 1 January 2008 – 13 October 2011
Money market rate
Key policy rate
Bank lending rate (new residential mortgages)
Yield on 5-year covered bonds
0
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0
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Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-111) 3-month NIBOR (effective)2) Sum of 3-month NIBOR and indicative credit spreads on 5-year covered bonds3) Interest rate on new residential mortgages of NOK 1m within 60% of purchase price with variable interest rate. Figures for the 20 largest banks, weighted according to market shareSources: Norsk familieøkonomi AS, DnB Nor Markets, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.7 Key rates and estimated forward rates as at 16 June 2011 and 13 October 2011.¹⁾ Per cent. 1 January 2008 – 31 December 2014²⁾
US
Euro area³⁾
UK
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1
0
1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141) Broken lines show estimated forward rates as at 16 June 2011. Thin lines show forward rates as at 13 October 2011. Forward rates are based on Overnight Indexed Swap (OIS) rates2) Daily figures from 1 July 2008 and quarterly figures from 2011 Q43) EONIA in euro area from 2011 Q4Sources: Bloomberg L.P. and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.8 Consumer prices. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2003 – September 2011
CPI 20% trimmed mean
CPI-ATE ¹⁾ CPIXE ²⁾
CPI-FW ³⁾ CPIM⁴⁾
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 3) CPI adjusted for frequency of price changes. See Norges Bank Economic commentaries 7/2009 4) Model-based indicator of underlying inflation. See Norges Bank Economic commentaries 5/2010 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.9 Inflation. Moving 10-year average¹⁾ and variation²⁾ in CPI³⁾. Per cent. 1981 – 2011
Variation
Inflation target
CPI
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0
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1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 20111) The moving average is calculated 10 years back2) The band around the CPI is the variation in the CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products in the average period, measured by +/- one standard deviation3) CPI projections in this Report form the basis for this estimateSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.10 Expected consumer price inflation 2 and 5 years ahead.¹⁾Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2011 Q3
Expected inflation 5 years ahead
Expected inflation 2 years ahead
002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) Average of expectations of employer/employee organisations and economists(financial industry experts, macro analysts and academia)Sources: TNS Gallup and Perduco
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Chart 1.11 Five-year forward rate¹⁾ differential 5 years ahead between Norwayand the euro area.²⁾ Percentage points. 1 January 2003 – 13 October 2011
002003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) Based on swap rates 2) Expected inflation can be derived from the long-term interest rate differential. Due to a higher inflation target in Norway, the long-term interest rate differential will normally be 0.5 – 1 percentage point, depending on risk premium. Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.12 Three-month money market rates.¹⁾Trading partners. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Market MPR 2/11 (16 June)
Market MPR 3/11 (13 October)
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.13 Household debt burden¹⁾ and interest burden²⁾. Per cent. Quarterly figures. 1988 Q1 – 2014 Q4¹⁾
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1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Interest burden (left-hand scale)
Debt burden (right-hand scale)
1) Loan debt as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 20142) Interest expenses after tax as a percentage of disposable income adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2014 plus interest expensesSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.14a Projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Per cent. 2008 Q1– 2014 Q4
30% 50% 70% 90%
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: Norges Bank
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Chart 1.14b Projected output gap¹⁾ in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
30% 50% 70% 90%
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-1
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141) The output gap measures the percentage deviation between mainland GDP andprojected potential mainland GDPSource: Norges Bank
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Chart 1.14c Projected CPI in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
30% 50% 70% 90%
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-1
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.14d Projected CPIXE¹⁾ in the baseline scenario with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
30% 50% 70% 90%
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-1
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank
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Chart 1.15 Interval for the key policy rate at the end of each strategy period, actual developments and projected key policy rate in the baseline scenario. Per cent. January 2008 – December 2014
MPR 1/11
MPR 2/11
MPR 3/11
Strategy period
3/07 1/08
Key policy rate
2/08
3/08
17 Dec 08
1/10 2/10 3/101/11
2/113/11
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: Norges Bank
1/092/09
3/091/10 2/10 3/10
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Chart 1.16 Difference between 3-month money market rate and expected key rates.¹⁾ Percentage points. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Premium MPR 2/11
Premium MPR 3/11
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141) Norges Bank's projections from 2011 Q4Source: Norges Bank
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Chart 1.17 Three-month money market rate differential between Norway¹⁾ and trading partners and the import-weighted exchange rate index (I-44)²⁾.January 2003 – December 2014³⁾
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-1
0100
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1062003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
I-44 (left-hand scale)
3-month rate differential (right-hand scale)
1) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market2) A positive slope denotes a stronger krone exchange rate 3) Monthly figures from January 2003 and Norges Bank projections from 2011 Q4 Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.18 Projected inflation¹⁾ and output gap in the baseline scenario.Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Output gap (left-hand scale)
CPIXE (right-hand scale)
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141) CPIXE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank
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Chart 1.19 Real exchange rate. Deviation from mean over the period 1970 – 2010. Per cent. 1970 – 2011¹⁾
Relative consumer prices
Relative wages
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-15
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1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20101) The squares show the average so far in 2011. A positive slope indicates weaker competitivenessSources: Statistics Norway, Norwegian Technical Calculation Committee for Wage Settlements, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.20a Key policy rate. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Criterion 1
Criteria 1&2
Criteria 1,2&3
Baseline scenario
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: Norges Bank
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Chart 1.20b Output gap. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Criterion 1
Criteria 1&2
Criteria 1,2&3
Baseline scenario
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: Norges Bank
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Chart 1.20c CPIXE¹⁾. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Criterion 1
Criteria 1&2
Criteria 1,2&3
Baseline scenario
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, the CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank
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Chart 1.21 Key policy rate and calculations based on simple monetary policy rules.¹⁾ Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2012 Q1
Taylor rule
Growth rule
Rule with foreign interest rates
Key policy rate in the baseline scenario
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0
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2
2008 2009 2010 2011 20121) The calculations are based on Norges Bank’s projections for the output gap, growth gap, consumer prices and 3-month money market rates among trading partners. To ensure comparability with the key policy rate, the simple rules are adjusted for risk premiums in 3-month money market ratesSource: Norges Bank
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Chart 1.22 Three-month money market rates in the baseline scenario¹⁾ and estimated forward rates²⁾. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Estimated forward rates
Money market rates in the baseline scenario
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20141) Key policy rate in the baseline scenario plus premiums in the Norwegian money market. The calculations are based on the assumption that announced interest rate changes are priced into the money market.2) Forward rates are based on money market rates and interest rate swaps. The blue band shows the highest and lowest forward rates in the period 30 September – 13 October 2011Sources: Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
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Chart 1.23 Key policy rate and interest rate developments that follow from Norges Bank’s average pattern of interest rate setting.¹⁾Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q2
90% confidence interval
Key policy rate
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2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121) Interest rate movements are explained by developments in inflation, mainland GDP growth, wage growth and 3-month money market rates among trading partners. The equation is estimated over the period 1999 Q1 – 2011 Q2. See Staff Memo 3/2008 for further discussionSource: Norges Bank
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Chart 1.24a Key policy rate in the baseline scenario and in the alternativescenarios. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Baseline scenario
Increased growth abroad
Weaker growth abroad
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: Norges Bank
30% 50% 70% 90%
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Chart 1.24b Output gap in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Baseline scenario
Increased growth abroad
Weaker growth abroad
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: Norges Bank
30% 50% 70% 90%
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Chart 1.24c CPIXE¹⁾ in the baseline scenario and in the alternative scenarios. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
Baseline scenario
Increased growth abroad
Weaker growth abroad
0
1
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1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
30% 50% 70% 90%
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. As from August 2008, CPIXE is a real time series. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/2009 Source: Norges Bank
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Chart 1 Key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 2/11 with fan chart and key policy rate in the baseline scenario in MPR 3/11 (red line). Per cent. 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q4
30% 50% 70% 90%
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014Source: Norges Bank
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Chart 2 Factors behind changes in the interest rate forecast since MPR 2/11. Accumulated contribution. Percentage points. 2011 Q4 – 2014 Q4
Growth abroad Supplementary assessment
Capacity utilisation Prices and costs
Money market premiums Interest rates abroad
Change in the interest rate forecast
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-1
2011Q4 2012Q2 2012Q4 2013Q2 2013Q4 2014Q2 2014Q4-2
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Source: Norges Bank
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G20 Advanced economies
G20 Emerging markets
Chart 2.1 GDP growth in G20 advanced economies and G20 emerging markets.1)
Quarterly growth. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q2
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) GDP-weighted (PPP)Sources: IMF, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
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US Euro area UK Spain Sweden
Households: from 2000 to peak
Public sector: from 2000 to peak
Households: from 2000 to current level
Public sector: from 2000 to current level
Chart 2.2 Change in debt for households1) and public sector2). Percentage points. Change from 2000 Q1 to peak and from 2000 Q1 to current level
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1) Gross debt as a percentage of disposable income2) Gross debt as a percentage of GDPSources: Thomson Reuters, ECB and Norges Bank
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Housing starts
Existing home sales
New home sales
Chart 2.3 Housing indicators for the US. Index, January 2001 = 100. January 2001 – August 2011
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Thomson Reuters
New home sales
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US
Germany
Euro area
Sweden
UK
Chart 2.4 Private investment.1) Index, Q1 2008 = 100. 2007 Q1 – 2011 Q2
70702007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) Gross fixed capital investment for the euro area, Germany and Sweden. Private non-residential investment for the US. Business investment for the UKSource: Thomson Reuters
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4US
Euro area
UK
Sweden
Chart 2.5 Consumer prices excluding food and energy.1) 12-month change. Per cent. January 2006 – August 2011
002006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco for the euro area, UK and SwedenSource: Thomson Reuters
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Euro area
UK
Chart 2.6 Unit labour costs. Total economy. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2006 Q1 – 2011 Q1
-4-42006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: OECD
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16BrazilRussiaChinaIndia
Chart 2.7 Core inflation in emerging markets¹⁾. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2006 – August 2011
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2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1) India: wholesale prices for manufactured goodsSource: Thomson Reuters
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Chart 2.8 Oil price (Brent Blend) and prices for Norwegian petroleum exports1).USD/barrel. January 2003 – April 2014
Oil price
Futures
Futures as at MPR 2/11
Futures as at MPR 1/11
Petroleum price
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2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
1) Weighted average of Norwegian crude oil and gas exportsSources: Statistics Norway, Thomson Reuters and Norges Bank
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Chart 2.9 Prices for coal, crude oil and natural gas. USD per MMBTU.January 2003 – August 2014
Coal US¹⁾
Oil¹⁾
Gas UK¹⁾
Gas US¹⁾
Gas Russia
Gas Norway²⁾
Futures
002003 2005 2007 2009 2011 20131) For October 2011 calculated as daily average2) Calculation of future gas prices for Norway based on assumptions in 2012 National BudgetSources: IMF, Thomson Reuters, Statistics Norway, Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
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700Aluminium
Copper
Wheat
Cotton
Chart 2.10 Commodity prices. USD. Spot and futures prices.Index, January 2003 = 100. January 2003 – October 2014
Futures
0
100
0
100
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
Sources: CME Group and Thomson Reuters
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5
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CPI CPI-ATE CPIXE
Chart 2.11 CPI, CPI-ATE1) and CPIXE2). 12-month change. Per cent. January 2008 – June 20123)
002008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding temporary changes in energy prices. Real-time figures. See Norges Bank Staff Memo 7/2008 and 3/20093) Projections for October 2011 – June 2012 (broken lines). Monthly figures to March 2012, then quarterly figuresSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
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Chart 2.12 CPI-ATE1). Total and by supplier sector. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2008 – June 20122)
CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Domestically produced goods and services ³⁾
-2.5
0
-2.5
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) Projections for October 2011 – June 2012 (broken lines). Monthly figures to March 2012, then quarterly figures3) Norges Bank's estimatesSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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-4
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-4
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Chart 2.13 Prices for imported consumer goods in the CPI-ATE and prices for clothing in the CPI. 12-month change. Per cent. January 2008 – September 2011
Imported consumer goods Clothing
-10
-8
-10
-8
2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Statistics Norway
-0.5
0
0.5
1
-0.5
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1
Chart 2.14 Indicator of external price impulses to imported consumer goods measured in foreign currency. Annual change. Per cent. 2002 – 20121)
-1.5
-1
-1.5
-1
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1) Projections for 2011 and 2012Source: Norges Bank
1
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3
MPR 3/11
SAM
CPI-ATE
Chart 2.15 CPI-ATE1). Actual figures, baseline scenario and projections from SAM2) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Per cent. 2010 Q4 – 2012 Q23)
30% 50% 70% 90%
00Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12
1) CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products2) System for averaging models3) Projections for 2011 Q4 – 2012 Q2 (broken lines)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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2
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2
4Regional network
Mainland GDP growth
Chart 2.16 GDP mainland Norway1,2) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in production past three months and expected change in production next six months. Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q23)
-2-22003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change. Volume2) High electricity production may contribute by about ¼ percentage point higher quarterly growth in GDP mainland Norway in 2011 Q3 than shown in the chart3) Latest observation in the Regional network is September 2011. Latest GDP observation is 2011 Q2, projections for 2011 Q3 – 2012 Q2 (broken line)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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Mainland Norway
Total
Chart 2.17 Terms of trade. Index. 2003 Q1 = 100. 2003 Q1 – 2011 Q2
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100
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100
110
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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Mainland GDP
MPR 3/11
SAM
Chart 2.18 GDP mainland Norway. Actual figures, baseline scenario1) and projections from SAM2) with fan chart. Four-quarter change. Volume. Seasonally adjusted. Per cent. 2010 Q1 – 2012 Q23)
30% 50% 70% 90%
0
1
0
1
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-121) High electricity production may contribute by about ¼ percentage point higher quarterly growth in GDP mainland Norway in 2011 Q3 than shown in the chart2) System for averaging models3) Projections for 2011 Q3 – 2012 Q2 (broken lines)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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5Output gap MPR 3/11 (left-hand scale)
Capacity constraints (right-hand scale)
Labour supply (right-hand scale)
Chart 2.19 Capacity constraints and labour supply1) in Regional network and estimated output gap. Per cent. January 2005 – September 2011
10
20
30
-2
-1
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111) Share of contacts that will have some or considerable problems accommodating an increase in demand and the share of contacts where production is constrained by labour supplySource: Norges Bank
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Services Traditional goods
Chart 2.20 Exports from mainland Norway. Constant 2007 prices. In billions of NOK. 1992 – 20121)
0
100
0
100
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
1) Projections for 2011 and 2012Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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6
8
4
6
8
Household consumption Household real disposable income
Chart 2.21 Household consumption1) and real disposable income2). Annual change. Per cent. 2003 – 20143)
0
2
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 20130
2
1) Includes consumption among non-profit organisations. Volume2) Excluding dividend income. Including income in non-profit organisations3) Projections for 2011 – 2014 (broken line)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
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0
5
10
15
-5
0
5
10
15Saving ratio excl. dividend income
Saving ratio, adjusted ²⁾
Net lending ratio excl. dividend income
Chart 2.22 Household saving and net lending as a share of disposable income. Per cent. 1992 – 20141)
-15
-10
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012-15
-10
1) Projections for 2011 – 2014 (broken lines)2) Adjusted for estimated reinvested dividends for 2000 – 2005 and redemption/reduction of equity capital for 2006 – 2014Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
800
1000
1200
40
60
80
100
120
140
Chart 2.23 Housing starts1) and order intake for residential construction2).1992 Q1 – 2011 Q2
Order intake (right-hand scale)
Housing starts (left-hand scale)
400
600
1992 1996 2000 2004 20080
20
40
1) In 1000s of square meters. Seasonally adjusted2) Seasonally adjusted value index deflated by the price index for housing investment in the national accounts. Deferred two quarters forward. 2007 = 100Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Manufacturing Retail trade Services
Chart 2.24 Planned growth in investment for next 12 months compared with past 12 months. Index.1) October 2002 – September 2011
-4
-3
-4
-3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20111) The scale runs from -5 to +5, where -5 denotes a sharp fall and +5 denotes strong growth. See article "Norges Bank's regional network: fresh and useful information" in Economic Bulletin 2/2009 for further informationSource: Norges Bank
150
200
250
300
350
150
200
250
300
350
Business Housing
Chart 2.25 Investment in mainland Norway excluding public sector. Constant 2007 prices. In billions of NOK. 1992 – 20141)
0
50
100
0
50
100
1992 1997 2002 2007 2012
1) Projections for 2011 – 2014Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
0
1
2
0
1
2
Regional network
Employment growth
Chart 2.26 Employment1) and Norges Bank's regional network's indicator of change in employment and expected change in employment next three months. Per cent. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q22)
-1-12003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) Seasonally adjusted quarterly change in Quarterly National Accounts2) Latest observation in the Regional network is September 2011. Latest observation in the Quarterly National Accounts is 2011 Q2, projections for 2011 Q3 – 2012 Q2 (broken line)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
30
40
50
60
70
30
40
50
60
70
Net migration
Excess of births
Population growth
Chart 2.27 Population growth, net migration and excess of births. Sum of four previous quarters. In 1000s of persons. 2003 Q1 – 2014 Q41)
0
10
20
0
10
20
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
1) Projections for 2011 Q3 - 2014 Q4 Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2500
2600
2700
2500
2600
2700
Labour force participation at 2006 level
Labour force participation at 2007 level
Actual labour force, trend
Chart 2.28 Actual trend in labour force and labour force given demografic developments1). In 1000s. January 2000 – December 2011
2300
2400
2300
2400
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
1) Total labour force given unchanged labour force participation in every age group from the 2006/2007 levelSources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
2
3
4
5
2
3
4
5
Chart 2.29 Registered unemployment. Percentage of labour force. Seasonally adjusted. 2003 Q1 – 2012 Q21)
0
1
0
1
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) Projections for 2011 Q4 – 2012 Q2 (broken line)Sources: Norwegian Labour and Welfare Administration, Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
110
115
120
125
130
135
110
115
120
125
130
135
Chart 2.30 GDP per hour worked for mainland Norway. Index, 1997 Q1 = 100. Seasonally adjusted. Market value. 1997 Q1 – 2012 Q21)
95
100
105
95
100
105
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 20111) Projections for 2011 Q3 – 2012 Q2 (broken line)Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
3
4
5
6
7
3
4
5
6
7
Chart 2.31 Non-oil budget deficit and structural non-oil budget deficit. Percentage of GDP mainland Norway. 2003 – 20121)
Non-oil deficit
Structural, non-oil deficit
0
1
2
0
1
2
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1) Projections for 2011 and 2012Sources: Ministry of Finance and Statistics Norway
60
90
120
150
180
60
90
120
150
180
Chart 2.32 Structural, non-oil deficit and expected real return on the Government Pension Fund Global. Constant 2012 prices. In billions of NOK. 2001 – 20141)
Structural, non-oil deficit
Expected real return
0
30
0
30
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
1) Projections for 2011 – 2014Sources: Ministry of Finance and Norges Bank
60
90
120
150
60
90
120
150
Chart 2.33 Petroleum investment. Constant 2007 prices. In billions of NOK.1992 – 20141)
0
30
0
30
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
1) Projections for 2011 – 2014Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
