Chartbook_CEE_Jan_2011[1].pdf

8/14/2019 Chartbook_CEE_Jan_2011[1].pdf

1/20

ERSTE GROUP

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, CMT, CFTe

[email protected]

Vienna, January 4 2011

CHARTBOOK Trading Ideas

Prediction is always difficult, especially

when its about the future

.but were still trying!


2/20

ERSTE GROUP

Vienna, Jan. 4 2011 Trading Ideas Chartbook 20112

NTX - The big pictureConvincing technical setup 2011 target: 1,600

On-Balance-Volume

MACD

ADX/DMI


3/20

ERSTE GROUP


NTX - The big pictureIchimoku-Chart confirms the bullish setup

Relative Strength vs. EuroStoxx

Ichimoku-chart confirmsour bullish stance on CEEequities!

conversion linecrossed base

line and gave Buysignal

price is well supported bythe cloud

lagging line givessolid support

relative strength vs. EuroStoxx

(and most otherbenchmarks)also looks solid

target levels in 2011:

50% Fib @ 1,364

61.8% Fib @ 1,541

76.4% Fib @ 1,760 (bull case)

support levels:

1,268

1,229

Cloud


4/20

ERSTE GROUP


Seasonality favors cyclicals in H1*

Investors favor risky sectors in H1, therefore cyclicals post significant outperformance in H1

* results based on Stoxx Europe 600

H1: Cyclicals H2: Defensives

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Defensives Cyclicals Diff. Cyclicals vs. Defensives


5/20

ERSTE GROUP


Favored indices within our region:ATX

ATX traded in arelatively narrowrange in 2010

technicals looksound, therefore weexpect the breakoutto be sustainable

we expect a correctionin January to ~support level @2,800

at this level wed beaggressive buyers

MACD gave a strong

buy-signal on aweekly basis

DMI+ picking upmomentum, nextphase of the uptrendahead


50% Fib @ 3,18261.8% Fib @ 3,604

76.4% Fib @ 4,127(bull case)

support levels:

2,800 & 2,760

MACD

ADX/DMI

RSI


6/20

ERSTE GROUP


Favored indices within our region:Turkey: XU 100

MACD medium-term

long MACD

quick MACD

expecting some moreweakness short-term

~ TRY 60,000 wouldbe perfect entry level

medium/longterm-

trend is still healthyand confirmed byalmost all technicalindicators

quick MACD (6/13)already giving a(premature) Buysignal

targets in 2011:

72,071 (alltime-high)

82,868 (123.6% Fib.extension)

89,989 (138.2 % Fib)

95,744 (150% Fib.

(bull case!!!)

support levels:

60,000

53,174 (38.2% Fib)


7/20

ERSTE GROUP


Favored indices within our region:

Poland: WIG

RSI

MACD

WIG also traded in anarrow range in 2010

breakout above resistance@ 45,000 finally successful

consolidation on relativelylow volume, but breakout

on high volume

technicals look sound,therefore we expect thebreakout to be sustainable

modest pullback mightlead to correction inJanuary to ~ supportlevel @ 45,000


38.2% Fib @ 49,968

23.6 % Fib @ 56,773

ATH @ 67,700

support levels:

38,96832,163

it remains unclear howgovernment plans to cutcash transfers to pensionfunds will affect the market


8/20

ERSTE GROUP


Favored indices within our region:Croatia: CRO Index

Breakaway-gaps on highvolume (triggering 30w-MA)

Coppock indicator is

about to move up andgive a longterm Buysignal

support @ 1.23 (38.2%Fibonacci retracement

CCI & Williams % R (bothsimilar to Stochastics)

are posting positivedivergences!

expecting a decisivebreak through thelongterm resistance @~2,230

MACD

CCI

Coppock


9/20

ERSTE GROUP


both stocks established impressive uptrends however, from a technical point of view, a correction should be ahead, especially after the stealth-bull in Q4

we would recommend buying into this correction, as overall technicals appear sound

Top Picks Austria:RHI & VOE

Voest VOE AVRHI RHI AV

impressive 3 white soldier candles

MACD, OBV and DMI/ADX confirming uptrend

support levels: EUR 25.5 (50% Fib)

targets: EUR 34.6 (76.4% Fib), EUR 42.6 (high 2007)

beautiful uptrend confirmed by most oscillators/indicators

impressive trend strength

buy into every weakness

targets: EUR 43 & EUR 50.95


10/20

ERSTE GROUP


Top Picks AustriaIIA & KTCG

Kapsch Trafficcom KTCG AV

Immofinanz IIA AV

double-top @ 3.30 will be major resistance

expecting a pullback to ~ EUR 3 area

technical setup still healthy, therefore we would buy intothe pullback

mid/longterm we expect uptrend to continue to ~ EUR3.9 (50%Fib projection) and EUR 4.3

Kapsch is currently developing a textbook pennant

formation due to several bearish divergences, technicals favor a

break to the downside

EUR 60 (23,6% Fib.) might be a sweet entry spot

for 2011, EUR 82,8 (123,6 % Fib extension) or even (bullcase!!) EUR 97,5 (150% Fib. extension) conceivable


11/20

ERSTE GROUP


OMV vs. STOXX Oil & Gas:

Top Picks AustriaOMV

relative strength supports (see Trade idea OMV Dec.10) were confirmed

Dec. target @ EUR 31 was called perfectly

consensus view is neutral/bearish

medium-term chart (weekly candles) showing a breakout

weekly RSI, DMI in positive terrain breakout on HIGHVOLUME!

daily RSI, DMI and momentum strongly improving

medium-term technical target: 50% Fib. retracement @ EUR39.3

MACD

ADX/DMI

RSI

OMV weekly chart


12/20

ERSTE GROUP


Top Picks Hungary:RFV, MOL

RFV HB

MOL HB

inverse SHS formation leads to measured-move target@ HUF 9,110

stock is trading above 30/60/200d MovingAverages

MACD recently gave a buy signal

ATH @ HUF 9,740 might be tackled soon

downtrend seems to be over

MACD on Buy

ADX posting bullish divergence

increasing relative strength vs. BUX andsector

HUF 20,000 support looks solid

moving average golden cross

consensus view is still neutral

targets: HUF 24,770


13/20

ERSTE GROUP


Top Picks Poland:ABPL (ABE PW ), Kulczyk Oil Ventures (KOV PW)

ABPL - ABE PW On-balance Volume confirmsbulltrend

RSI supported in bullmarket-range

next target: PLN 28.8 (ATH),

32.7 (123,6% Fib) 36.2 (138,2% Fib)

Kulczyk Oil Ventures KOV PW

MACD posting bullish divergences

triple-bottom @ 1.50 looks solid

set a tight stop-loss @ 1.35

OBV indicating accumulation

relative weakness against Crude& sector clearly diminishing

targets: 1.66 (23.6% Fib), 1.79(38.2%), 2 (61.8%)

Due to low liquidity both calls are risky,therefore set tight stop-losses!!


14/20

ERSTE GROUP


Top Picks Poland:Asseco Poland - ACP PW

downtrend seems to be over

30/60-day Moving Average were

crossed from below

now 200-d Moving Average is a majorresistance that should be tackled

Ichimoku Chart confirms our bullishview

conversion line above Base line =buy signal

support level: 52 and 48

targets: 65.7 (50% Fib), 71.5 (61.8%),78 (76.4% Fib)

ACP PW


15/20

ERSTE GROUP


Top Picks Croatia:Hrvatski Telekom (HTRA CZ)

lets close the gap!

HTRA CZ

according to the old technicalsaying every gap eventually is closed

chances are good that it also appliesto Hrvatski Telekom

OBV confirms the new bull-market

ADX is picking up momentum

looks like a cup and handle formation,volume confirms this pattern

most other indicators posting bullishdivergences

target: upper end of the gap @ 320

stop: support level @ 266


16/20

ERSTE GROUP


Top Pick Romania:Transelectrica SA TEL RO

consolidation seems tobe over, cup&handle-pattern finally confirmed

MACD confirming thebuy-signal

ADX/DMI underliningtrend strength

30/60/200-day MovingAverage werecrossed from below

Ichimoku Chart confirmsour bullish view

support level: RON 19and 17.8

targets: 22 (high 2010),28.6 (50% Fib.

retracement)


17/20

ERSTE GROUP


Top Picks Turkey:Turkiye Halk Bankasi (HALKB TI), TUPRAS (TUPRS TI)

HALKB TI

textbook-consolidation @ 38.2 % Fib. retracement

MACD is about to give a Buy-signal

ADX is picking up improving trend strength

200d MA was confirmed as solid support coppock is about to move up and give a longterm signal

targets: 14.2, 16.40, 18.8 (126.6% Fib)

stops: 12.9, 11.85

HALKB TI

TUPRS TITUPRS TI

resistance becomes support!

CCI posting positive divergence

OBV confirms validity of the uptrend

30/60/200d MAs also solid

targets: 39.4, 46.2

stop: 36.2, 34.8


18/20

ERSTE GROUP


Top Picks Turkey:TEKFEN Holding (TKFEN TI), BIM Birlesik (BIMAS TI)

TKFEN TI

chart showing a textbook consolidation on the23.6% Fib. retracement

consolidation took place on very low volume

correction is over, next target is the ATH @6.90

increasing relative strength compared to sectorand XU30

MACD on Buy

due to the sound technical setup we expectfurther outperformance and envisage 7.3 and

7.96 as target levels in 2011

BIMAS TI

TKFEN TI

BIMAS TI

one of our favorite longterm-picks

however, we clearly see some

divergences, for example in the MACD recommend buying into correction

TRY 49.8 or 47 (23,6% Fib) might be attractiveentry levels

long MACD

quick MACD


19/20

ERSTE GROUP


But please remember

You dont have to trade every signal the market gives you


20/20

Documents

Chartbook_CEE_Jan_2011[1].pdf