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Jay Baia [email protected] Kevin Martin [email protected] CS3041 12/13/15
Chart Results of Popular Last.fm Artists in 2008 HYPOTHESIS
In 2008, Apple’s last generation of classic iPods was a year old and the way people
listened and purchased music was just starting to change. iTunes was only 7 years old and
streaming sites like Spotify and Apple Music were young in development or nonexistent. From
2007 to 2008, physical CD sales dropped 1.99 million dollars and digital sales gained 571
thousand, a trend that continues now in 2015 . Soon music tastefinders such as Pandora and 1
Last.fm started being created in order to help digital music listeners find new music they would
like. Specifically Last.fm would look at music users listened to on their media players such as
iTunes. Users’ profiles would contain their top artists and the number of times they’ve played
them. We believe that Last.fm’s users’ top artists would not reflect those who were topping the
charts, which include digital and physical music sales.
METHODOLOGY
We found Last.fm user data from 2008 and compared it to the top 200 artists of 2008 as
calculated by Discogs.com. We found data for around 360,000 Last.fm users which included
their top artists along with the number of times they played that artist. We summed the total
number of plays for each unique artist from all the users’ data and generated our own list of the
1https://musicbusinessresearch.wordpress.com/2014/03/21/therecordedmusicmarketintheus20002013/
top artists from 2008 based on this Last.fm data. We then looked at each artist in Discogs’s top
200 list and compared how many Last.fm listens they had and also where they were, if at all, on
our own Last.fm top artists list.
ASSUMPTIONS
For this project we made multiple assumptions to come up with our conclusion. The first
is that Discogs uses a reasonable algorithm to decide on its Top 200 artists list, instead of just
randomly adding names to their list or using personal bias to create the list. Our second
assumption is that the data compiled from Last.fm is accurate. We did not compile this data, but
instead found it from another source. In 2008, Last.fm allowed users to listen to a variety of radio
stations, as well as playing music from users’ local music libraries. Since some of this data is
from radio stations, the music is not necessarily what the user wants to listen to, but is fed to the
user depending on what genre they may like. We assume that these radio stations are playing the
most popular music in a given genre.
RESULTS
There are multiple interesting conclusions we can draw from our data. By looking at just
the top ten artists in each ranking system, we can already see a huge discrepancy. The only artist
to make the top ten on both lists was Coldplay. This makes sense to us, since the Discogs rank is
based on physical records sold, while Last.fm is based on digital plays. While we expected the
Last.fm ranks to show more new music, due to the prevelance of younger generations on the
interent, we were proven wrong. The Last.fm ranks has a wider variety of genres and generations
of music, while the Discogs rank has more “new” music as of 2008. This does makes sense the
more we thought about it though. Physical copies of older music are likely no longer being sold
as often, compared to records that were recently released. Any popular older music would likely
sell fewer copies in 2008, whereas the online plays could be more varied.
Discogs Rank Artist Name Last.fm Listens Last.fm Rank
1 Alicia Keys 31603 329
2 Leona Lewis 21938 515
3 Rihanna 58106 143
4 Coldplay 296048 3
5 Timbaland 32071 320
6 Jordin Sparks 6710 1709
7 Duffy 11990 994
8 Chris Brown 25925 426
9 Kid Rock 2962 3408
10 One Republic 12755 923
Last.fm Rank Last FM Artists Last FM Listens Discogs Rank
1 The Beatles 550031 N/A
2 Radiohead 495516 62
3 Coldplay 296048 4
4 Pink Floyd 270987 N/A
5 Linkin Park 270239 18
6 Nine Inch Nails 263964 N/A
7 Muse 260912 N/A
8 Metallica 250524 64
9 System of a Down 220237 N/A
10 Red Hot Chili Peppers 218821 N/A
CONCLUSIONS
We were not surprised to find that record sales didn’t match what people would listen to
daily. We figured that people would have their favorite type of music or artists and would
purchase new music they may enjoy, but in the end always fall back on what they love. As
digital music continues to grow, streaming services are allowing people to play more and more
music without having to purchase songs or albums. With one subscription to Spotify, a user can
listen to over 30 million songs and have all their listens be sent to Last.fm, a partnership made in
2014. As more listeners are beginning to use up and coming streaming services such as Spotify,
Apple Music, and Tidal, it will be interesting to see if the top 200 list will ever match the top
streamed artists. We expect the results would look the same as they did in 2008 but we will see.
APPENDIX
Datasets:
Last.fm dataset:
http://www.dtic.upf.edu/~ocelma/MusicRecommendationDataset/lastfm360K.html
Discogs.com Chart:
http://www.discogs.com/lists/WorldwideTop200MusicArtistsOf2008/1014
Data:
Discogs Rank Artist Name Last FM Listens Last.fm Rank
1 alicia keys 31603 329
2 leona lewis 21938 515
3 rihanna 58106 143
4 coldplay 296048 3
5 timbaland 32071 320
6 jordin sparks 6710 1709
7 duffy 11990 994
8 chris brown 25925 426
9 kid rock 2962 3408
10 onerepublic 12755 923
11 katy perry 24451 456
12 madonna 103375 53
13 neyo 20769 557
14 usher 19841 595
15 britney spears 116744 40
16 p!nk 31418 1021
17 mariah carey 29419 369
18 linkin park 270239 5
19 justin timberlake 49976 186
20 lil wayne 162075 17
21 taylor swift 12304 958
22 carrie underwood 5410 2049
23 sara bareilles 6150 1827
24 nickelback 56791 150
25 gabriella cilmi 2001 4641
26 jason mraz 42273 227
27 t.i. 31697 327
28 kylie minogue 56213 154
29 maroon 5 39939 239
30 sugababes 23310 483
31 sam sparro 4981 2185
32 kanye west 123595 35
33 basshunter 11940 999
34 adele 15042 787
35 kings of leon 96091 67
36 paramore 71373 110
37 soulja boy 5442 2039
38 lady gaga 66487 121
39 natasha bedingfield 12730 926
40 the ting tings 14627 806
41 daughtry 6969 1636
42 josh groban 6829 1685
43 miley cyrus 10359 1142
44 jonas brothers 20457 571
45 sugarland 2235 4281
46 eagles 10474 1130
47 amy macdonald 13587 864
48 madcon 1141 7063
49 enrique iglesias 9591 1222
50 garth brooks 6912 1649
51 estelle 4356 2450
52 mary j. blige 10987 1076
53 kelly rowland 2411 4028
54 young jeezy 4869 2230
55 akon 25419 434
56 3 doors down 37835 254
57 jack johnson 109798 46
58 girls aloud 26316 419
59 ac/dc 112040 45
60 rascal flatts 6228 1804
61 mgmt 42798 219
62 radiohead 495516 2
63 mark ronson 4836 2242
64 metallica 250524 8
65 the pussycat dolls 22582 494
66 yael naim 1159 6969
67 colbie caillat 7054 1619
68 guru josh project 1647 5330
69 fergie 10792 1092
70 george strait 3792 2795
71 mondotek 156 22512
72 flo rida 7604 1498
73 celine dion 131 24154
74 fatal bazooka 300 16366
75 amy winehouse 88274 80
76 laurent wolf 984 7810
77 led zeppelin 143011 24
78 ich + ich 2004 4635
79 colby odonis 31 35399
80 foo fighters 106535 49
81 keyshia cole 3419 3025
82 sheryfa luna 187 20781
83 toby keith 4038 2636
84 alphabeat 3353 3065
85 tpain 11160 1059
86 andrea bocelli 2891 3470
87 disturbed 82802 89
88 mannheim steamroller 2667 3717
89 september 7481 1533
90 janet jackson 10344 1144
91 seether 18394 635
92 michael bublé 23466 481
93 cascada 28234 390
94 schnuffel 15 38972
95 take that 5684 1967
96 m.i.a. 32167 317
97 plies 2919 3444
98 stefanie heinzmann 1351 6214
99 rick ross 10771 1094
100 reba mcentire 657 10210
101 the killers 158012 19
102 tim mcgraw 2506 3908
103 lenny kravitz 18712 625
104 jennifer hudson 1284 6470
105 jenifer 576 11128
106 keith urban 5268 2094
107 the saturdays 10595 1114
108 jayz 64011 130
109 keane 49379 189
110 john mayer 75562 102
111 the last shadow puppets 14226 837
112 tokio hotel 10737 1099
113 keri hilson 5099 2143
114 alan jackson 3331 3080
115 ida corr 1054 7452
116 danity kane 11220 1054
117 dj Ötzi 29 35791
118 james taylor 4773 2268
119 david tavare 22 37175
120 robyn 7707 1482
121 beyoncé 45749 203
122 mokobe #N/A
123 jesse mccartney 10583 1116
124 kidz bop kids 25 36587
125 goldfrapp 47609 197
126 brad paisley 3850 2766
127 the script 4795 2254
128 shaggy 1104 7218
129 the game 31981 323
130 zaho 339 15296
131 buckcherry 6162 1821
132 plain white t's 8045 2175
133 slipknot 96977 64
134 alex christensen #N/A
135 sean kingston 3237 3148
136 vampire weekend 22980 488
137 eric prydz 1707 5196
138 simple plan 22323 503
139 alison krauss 1582 5504
140 trace adkins 1239 6640
141 christina aguilera 170070 15
142 lorie #N/A
143 weezer 39517 243
144 journey 10159 1165
145 portishead 96581 66
146 bloc party 105681 50
147 casting crowns 1781 5051
148 dizzee rascal 7498 1527
149 oasis 103539 52
150 m. pokora 1394 28425
151 lupe fiasco 33502 301
152 jaheim 710 9705
153 dream 2873 3487
154 marc antoine 551 11423
155 fall out boy 102678 55
156 kat deluna 2501 3914
157 rosenstolz 2283 4225
158 gavin degraw 6568 1737
159 the verve 15635 753
160 dane cook 5627 1980
161 marvin sapp 218 19273
162 lifehouse 18355 636
163 panic! At the disco 65326 1329
164 dim chris 198 20183
165 robert plant 2339 4138
166 john legend 19574 601
167 r.e.m. 98420 61
168 santogold 17808 660
169 söhne mannheims 1598 5464
170 death cab for cutie 176229 14
171 nas 50955 181
172 the feeling 4947 2197
173 frank sinatra 38683 248
174 josh turner 812 8902
175 david cook 1916 4787
176 paul potts 158 22411
177 seal 9899 1186
178 ashlee simpson 10382 1140
179 avenged sevenfold 47817 196
180 kardinal offishall 620 10619
181 david guetta 20772 555
182 flyleaf 12527 942
183 three days grace 34938 287
184 the kooks 69275 117
185 neil diamond 3083 3281
186 o.a.r. 2509 3901
187 brandy 4498 2379
188 t2 230 18748
189 snow patrol 72373 108
190 miranda lambert 1486 5784
191 elbow 12651 931
192 sheryl crow 8559 1348
193 flobots 3214 3166
194 craig david 10718 1102
195 snoop dogg 27745 398
196 eminem 69309 116
197 50 cent 36374 275
198 the rolling stones 95455 69
199 gucci mane 4504 2374
200 lil boosie 556 11361
