Charlie Pesko Managing Director September 30, 2003 · 00000000 1 CAP Ventures, Inc. ! 600 Cordwainer Drive ! Norwell, MA 02061 ! Phone 781-871-9000 ! Welcome & Introduction Charlie

CAP Ventures, Inc. ! 600 Cordwainer Drive ! Norwell, MA 02061 ! Phone 781-871-9000 ! www.capv.com00000000 1

Welcome & Introduction

Charlie Pesko

Managing Director

September 30, 2003

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CAPV Corporate

We are an international provider of strategic information, consulting services and market research in

digital technology markets

BostonUK

Japan

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CAP Ventures & InfoTrends

! InfoTrends Joined CAP Ventures Team in May 2002

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Serving the Business & Visual Communications Industry

Corporate Print for Profit ConsumerSOHOUsers

Capture

Create

Manage

Print

TransactionalPromotional

OfficePublishing EngineeringIndustrial

RecreationalTypes of

Communication

Equipment Vendors

Software Vendors

Supplies Vendors

Service Providers

Resellers

Hardcopy

Web

Display

DeliveryTechnologies

Vendors

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CAP Ventures Interacts, Assists & Influences

Vendors Service Providers

Corporate Users

Investment Firms

Press & Media Companies

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CAP Ventures Consulting Services

Services

Digital ImagingDigital Photography TrendsImage Scanning TrendsInternet Imaging Trends

Workflow andContent Management

Dynamic Content SoftwareNetwork Document solutionsProduction Workflow Solutions

On Demand Printing & PublishingDigital Peripherals SolutionsVisual Communications Technologies

Output

Supplies

Services Production Workflow Solutions (Document Outsourcing)

Communication Supplies

Consumer Corporate

Office Production

xx

xx

x

x

x

x

x xx

x

x x

xx

NarrowcastingElectronic Displays x

Teams of industry analysts that track the market and help clients with their product and business strategies

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What Makes CAP Ventures Unique?

! Largest consulting and research firm in the Business & Visual Communications Industry

! Highly experienced staff: average 15+ years

! Global presence: United States, Europe and Asia

! Low client to analyst ratio (10:1)

! Direct access to analysts

Depth Depth

FocusFocus

Experience Experience

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Private-Client Research Services

! Combining industry expertise with market research services

! Working with individual clients on specific assignments" Market opportunity assessment" Business plan development" Product/service concept testing" Customer requirements" Brand awareness" Mergers, acquisitions and partnerships

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Multi-Client Studies

! Universal Office Copiers & Printers: Worldwide Market Opportunities and Product Requirements

! Corporate Print Services: The In-Plant Printing Opportunity

! The New Corporate Print Customer: A Profile of a Market in Transition

! The Future of Mail and Transaction Documents

! The Future of Paper

! Print On Demand Quarterly Market Data Tracking Program


Reality Check: Current State, Future Prospects for the Printing Industry

Charlie Corr

Group Director

[email protected]

September 30, 2003

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"Following decades of continuous "Following decades of continuous growth, the publishing, media and growth, the publishing, media and advertising industries are now having advertising industries are now having to come to terms with one of the to come to terms with one of the longest and most deeplongest and most deep--seated seated downturns of recent decades.”downturns of recent decades.”

Bernhard Bernhard SchreierSchreier, CEO Heidelberg, CEO Heidelberg

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"MAN Roland said the economic "MAN Roland said the economic environment in the graphic arts sector environment in the graphic arts sector remained "extremely unsatisfactory". remained "extremely unsatisfactory".

First Half Financial Analysis for 2003First Half Financial Analysis for 2003

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Mega Trends Impacting the Print Business

CHARACTERISTIC 1990-2000 2001-

Economy Strong WeakEconomyEconomy StrongStrong WeakWeak

Impact of Internet Additive Subtractive on PrintImpact of Internet Additive Subtractive on Print

Digital Color Niche Gaining ShareDigital ColorDigital Color NicheNiche Gaining ShareGaining Share

Digital Equipment Centralized, faster, Decentralized, fewer feature rich features, lower cap. $

Digital EquipmentDigital Equipment Centralized, faster, Decentralized, fewer Centralized, faster, Decentralized, fewer feature richfeature rich features, lower cap. $features, lower cap. $

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Mega Trends Impacting the Print Business

CHARACTERISTIC 1990-2000 2001-

Establishment Growth Contraction DynamicsEstablishment Establishment GrowthGrowth Contraction Contraction DynamicsDynamics

Outsourcing/FM High Growth Limited GrowthOutsourcing/FM High Growth Limited Growth

Prices Moderate Growth DeflationPricesPrices Moderate GrowthModerate Growth DeflationDeflation

Geographic Focus US, Japan & WE China & Emerging Markets Geographic FocusGeographic Focus US, Japan & WEUS, Japan & WE China & Emerging Markets China & Emerging Markets

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Economic Review

! The production print market has experienced two years of decline" Indications of continued revenue declines in 2003 YTD

# NAPL survey 1/03 to 5/03 show revenue down 2.6%# Confidence still low

! The market outlook for print:" Little to no top line increase in demand" Price deflation" Industry consolidation" Continued destabilizing impact of technology

! Much of industry is under financial strain" Access to capital is limited

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Economic Outlook

! Economy is likely to improve by the end of 2003" Many downside risks" Some signs of improvement and 2004 should provide some

improvement (Elections, Olympics, etc.)

! Focus on efficiencies and workflow will increase" Those not focusing on this are more likely to leave the landscape" Requirement for “super-efficiency” increases

! The industry is beset by economic issues, technological issues and generational issues

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Preference for Paper DocumentsHow do you prefer to receive the following publications?

Percentage of respondents preferring this format

N = 519 Respondents

84.1%

66.5% 62.3%54.0% 53.4% 50.2%

8.9% 12.0%

21.3%22.8%

28.2% 33.3%26.3%

3.3% 3.9%12.1% 14.9% 17.8% 13.3%

23.5%

87.8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Books Magazines Newspapers Phone andother

directories

Catalogs Bills /statements

Other directmail

Electronic

Both

Paper

The Future of Paper

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Key Long-Term Growth Rates

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2001-2006

2006-2011

2011-2016

2016-2021

5-Year Compounded Annual Growth Rate

Sources: U.S. Congressional Budget Office, Census Bureau, AF&PA, CAP Ventures

Printing & Writing Paper

Workforce

GDP

Population

Population

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WTT.Com September Print Provider Results

! Optimism is up somewhat

! Capital investment plans continue to lag

! 55% have no plans in the next three years to “Evolve Into a Business Communication Service Provider”

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Print Providers 90 Day Outlook for Print Demand

Significant decline

1% Slight decline13%

Stable/No change

28%Slight increase

47%

Significant increase

11%

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Print Providers Investment PlansBudgeted Equipment Purchases next six months (9/2003)

3.6%

9.2%

14.7%

16.5%

18.2%

18.3%

22.0%

22.1%

25.7%

26.6%

26.6%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Production roll-fed black &white digital printer

Sheet fed - Direct-to-Press

Color copier/printer printsless than 24 ppm

Digital wide format printer

Offset equipment

Production sheet-fed black &white 80+ ppm digital printer

Mid-range production digitalcolor printer 24- 59ppm

Mailing equipment

High-speed productiondigital color printer 60 ppm+

Prepress equipment

Finishing equipment

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Services Offered Today

15.7%

17.9%

19.4%

25.8%

27.0%

29.5%

29.7%

32.4%

40.0%

40.3%

46.4%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Facilities management and document outsourcing services

IT & workflow systems, solutions, and services

Training and consulting

Creative services for non-print delivery

Mailing services

Copying services

Kitting and fulfillment, warehousing and inventory management

Digital printing services

Binding and finishing

Creative services for print output

Prepress services

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The Digital Printing Market Opportunity

! Digital printing technology is meeting the changing needs of theprint buyer" Economically produce short run lengths" Meet tighter delivery requirements

! In a survey of 310 print providers earlier this year, 60% agreedwith the statement that, “Within two years more than half my jobs will require 24 hour turnaround or faster”

! In a survey of 322 Document Owners, 67% reported “making more frequent updates or last-minute revisions to print jobs”

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Level of Agreement with Statements Please indicate to what degree you agree with the following statements.

25.2%

27.6%

27.1%

20.6%

41.6%

49.4%

35.4%

39.7%

43.1%

36.8%

48.7%

18.1%

18.9%

18.3%

17.4%

24.4%

19.6%

19.7%

23.2%

15.2%

4.2%

13.2%

10.3%

16.2%

14.5%

16.5%

7.4%

19.7%

22.8%

33.1%

20.3% 51.9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Digital color print quality is sufficient for the vast majority ofour work

Print volume, and paper use, will continue to increase

Variable printing is critical to the growth of my business

My customers are moving more work to full color from B&Wand 2 and 3 color work

Within two years more than half my jobs will require 24 hourturnaround or faster

My digital color print volume will grow by more than 20% peryear for the next three years

I will migrate print volume from offset to digital

The industry will continue to consolidate and I will have fewercompetitors

Completely Agree Somewhat Agree Somewhat Disagree Completely Disagree

N = 310 Print Service Providers Q1 2003 Percentage of Respondents on Level of Agreement

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Preferred Method of Being Contacted For Marketing Purposes

How would you prefer that companies contact you for marketing and promotional purposes?

N = 316 Consumers

Direct Mail69%

Telemarketing3%

E-Mail28%

The Future of Mail & Transaction Documents

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Type of Hard Copy Mail Preferred

When you do receive hard copy direct mail, which type do you prefer?

Highly personalized

69%

Non-personalized

31%

N = 317 Consumers

The Future of Mail & Transaction Documents

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The Challenge for Print Providers

! The value of Print On Demand, Variable Data print and other advanced services must be “sold” to the end user" Generally requires a solution not just producing a print job

! Relatively few “sell” solutions to clients" Most just “take” print orders

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The Challenge for Print Providers

! Many print providers can’t “connect the dots”

15

1716

18 Revenue & Profit14 19

13

111012 9

8

Market Opportunity

Investments7

1

62

543

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A Recipe For Success

! For print providers:" Invest in growth opportunities" Obtain “super-efficiency”" Market effectively

! For equipment/solutions providers:" Better, faster, cheaper digital color devices are required" Help print providers minimize risks in developing new services" Educate print providers and print buyers

! For paper companies:" Provide substrates for new technology" Work with print providers to obtain “super-efficiency”" Develop programs that deliver value and increase efficiency

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A Recipe For Failure

! For print providers:" Continue to focus on print" Continue to focus only on manufacturing efficiency" Remain order takers for a limited part of the supply side

! For equipment/solutions providers:" Ignore digital color and UCP’s" Expect print providers to sell advanced solutions without your help " Fail to invest in R&D

! For paper companies:" Ignore emerging opportunities " Remain devoted to the “big order”

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"Insanity: doing the same thing over "Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different and over again and expecting different results." results."

--Albert EinsteinAlbert Einstein


Print On Demand by The Book:Trends and Forecast

Ron Gilboa

DirectorOn Demand Printing &

Publishing Consulting [email protected]

September 30, 2003

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What is On Demand Printing?

! Print and deliver:" WHAT you want" WHEN you want it" WHERE you need it

! Digital automation of the graphic arts printing process

! Convergence of computing, communications, color, and printing

! Equipment in staffed environments that primarily print the work of others

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Annual U.S. Forecast Overview

Production Copying & Digital Printing

ProductionProcess Color

ConvenienceCopier/Printers

Black & White

Data Center/MIS Printing Systems

Print-on-DemandSystems

High-SpeedCopiers

Seg. 5&6 70+ cpm

Black & White

Direct-to-Press

ProductionSpot-Color

Color

High-Speed

ColorBlack & White

ProductionSpot-Color

High-Speed

Mid-Range Mid-Range

ColorServers

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So what's up in POD

! Growth in retail value of print" Despite continued price decreases

! New unit placements

! Increased print volume

! More color output

! Disruptive color technology

! Migration of light production black & White

! Solution selling

! The economy…!

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U.S. Primary Industries Vs. Print On Demand Market Retail Value of Print

$27.9$47.5

$114.0$123.4

$0

$36

$72

$108

$143

2002 2007

$ Billions

POD CAGR = 11%, Primary Industries CAGR = 1.6%Source: CAP Ventures Note: Primary Industries include commercial print, business forms, prepress services, direct mail services, photocopy services, in-plants, and data center print departments

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New Unit placements

! Growth in unit placements (’02-’07)" Black & white

# Mid range 40-79 ppm - 5%# High speed 80+ ppm - 7%

" Color# Spot color 50+ ppm - (3%)# Convenience Color 3-23 - 3%# Production color 24+ - 21%# Direct to press - 4%

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U.S. Annual Impressions

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Direct to press

Production color

Covenience color

Spot color

B/W High speed

B/W Mid range

Ann

ual I

mpr

essi

ons

(B)

Overall: 13% CAGR580B

320B

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U.S. Print On Demand MarketRetail Value of Print

$19.8$34.3

$8.1

$13.2

0

36

72

2002 2007

$27.9 Billion

Color

B & W

$ Billions

Color

$47.5 BillionB & W

12% CAGR ’02-’07

10% CAGR ’02-’07

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Disruptive Technology POD Production Process Color (24+ ppm) NewProducts Speed creep

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Printers 24+Copier/Printers 24+Copier/Printers 3-23

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Disruptive Technology - Universal Copier/Printer

! Produces color pages at competitive cost per page

! Produces monochrome pages at prices competitive with monochrome copiers/printers

! Capital cost is a small premium to monochrome copiers/printers

! Has features and functions that match the best monochrome copiers/printers

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U.S. POD Universal Copier/Printer Opportunity

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

UPC 3-23 UPC 24+

Placements

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U.S. POD Total Color Opportunity

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Print

UPC 24+

UPC 3-23

Copier/Printers 24+

Copier/Printers 3-23

Placements

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U.S. POD –Black & White placements

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Uni

ts

Roll fed 94 113 127 138 149 15440-79 11,796 13,432 14,226 14,938 15,121 15,29980-105 8,760 10,169 10,964 11,893 12,376 12,648106+ 1,380 1,527 1,644 1,572 1,514 1,576

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

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What’s down in POD

! Cost of service" Black & white - 3% decline" Production color – 8% decline" Convenience color – 9% decline

! Price of supplies" Black & white - 2% decline" Production color – 4% decline" Convenience color – 6% decline

! Equipment price" Black & white - 2% decline" Production color – 4% decline" Convenience color – 5% decline

! Retail page price" Black & white – 1% decline" Production color – 10% decline" Convenience color – 7% decline

! Analog product placements! Box selling

! The economy…!

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POD Represent Challenges

! The printing industry is consolidating and contracting

! To outdated business models exercised by print providers

! To equipment vendors which still sell boxes

! To media providers who fail to realize the digital opportunity

! To print customers who still operate under the cost-plus model

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POD Represent Growth Opportunities

! Digital color is becoming more affordable across the gamut of products and markets

! New black & white product enable smaller players to enter the digital arena

! The next choice of may print providers is digital

! New and converted applications increase digital print volume

! Digital printing is a key enabler in integrated workflow solutions

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Thank You


Hard Evidence: The Evolving Print Customer

Holly Muscolino

Director, Production Workflow Solutions

September 30, 2003

00000185

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Who is the Corporate Print Customer?

! The New Corporate Print Customer: A Profile of a Market in Transition" Multi-client study" Web-based surveys deployed

March/April 2003" Responses from 393 Document

Owners and 556 Print Buyers

! Respondents represented a variety of vertical markets, departments and company sizes

! Biased toward larger organizations

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Why Do You Care?

! Corporate print buyers are presented with a range of communications options, not available 5-6 years ago

! Print-on-demand, desktop and workgroup printing and technologies such as variable data printing have changed the corporate print mix

! The buying habits of corporate print buyers – and even the who they are – is changing

Result: Changing concerns and changing opportunities, that you must be aware of to develop effective product and go-to-market strategies

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Study Objectives

! Understand the changing roles of document owners and print buyers

! Examine the impact of technology on print and the print procurement process

! Update corporate print market data from past CAPV studies

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Definitions

! Document Owner defined as an individual who is responsible for managing the creation, production, and/or distribution of specific print applications for their departmentor company

! Print Buyer defined as an individual for whom some portion of their job responsibility includes the purchase of print

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Definitions

! Print Applications are:" Office documents (e.g. memos, reports, presentations, newsletters,

business cards, stationery)" Promotional documents (e.g. direct mail, catalogs, brochures, sell

sheets, other marketing materials)" Publishing documents (e.g. manuals, directories, training materials,

investor publications)" Transaction documents (e.g. policies, contracts, compliance

documents, statements, bills)

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What are the Charges?

! The print procurement function is distributed throughout multiple departments in an organization

! Because of this, the number of contact points between an organization and print suppliers is extremely large and complex

! This makes it it difficult for an organization to understand total print expenditure or to institute cost saving methodology.

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Where is the Evidence?! Less than 1/3 of print buyers were responsible

for purchasing print at the corporate or enterprise level" Even in largest companies, over 40% purchase

print at the department or workgroup level

! Only 1/3 of print buyers had training related to the purchase of print" Less than 20% devote more than half of their

time to buying print

! Over 1/2 of all respondents indicated that their companies had no mandated process for specifying and purchasing print

! Almost 1/3 of print buyers indicated their organizations had no approved lists of print or paper suppliers

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Level At Which Respondent is Involved in Decision Making

Department or workgroup, 32%

Corporate/Enterprise, 29%

Site, 22%

Division, 12%

Other , 4%

At what level in your company are most decisions made regarding print and document production?

N = 547 Print Buyers

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Percent of Time Spent Buying PrintWhat percent of your total work time is devoted to buying print for your company?

1 to 9%38.5%

10 to 19%21.6%

100% (All my time is spent on buying print)

2.0%80 to 99%4.5%

40 to 59%12.1%

20 to 39%14.9%

60 to 79%6.5%


Mean = 25%

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Whether Respondent Has Specific Training for Specifying and Purchasing PrintDo you have specific training or experience specifically related to specifying and purchasing print?

Yes, 32.20%

No, 67.80%


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Whether Company has Mandated Process for Specifying and Purchasing Print and PaperDoes your company have a mandated process or policy for specifying and purchasing print or paper from outside vendors or internally staffed printing departments?

Does not have mandated process

54.6%

Has mandated processes for print

and paper33.2%

Has mandated process for print only

4.9%Has mandated

process for paper only7.3%

N = 386 Document Owners

Does not have a mandated process

56.0%

Have mandated process for print and

paper29.6%

Have mandated process for paper only

6.9%Have mandated

process for print only7.5%


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Whether Company has Approved List of Suppliers

Does your company have approved lists of print providers and paper suppliers?

No approved lists45.9%

Both print provider and paper supplier

lists45.6%

Print provider list only3.4%

Paper supplier list only5.2%

Print only7.4%

Paper only7.7%

Neither 29.2%

Print and paper44.3%

Don't know11.4%

N = 542 Print BuyersN = 386 Document Owners

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! Most Document Owners are delivering their documents electronically

! Electronic delivery is impacting overall print volume

! Despite this, all respondents expect their print volume to grow slightly

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Where is the Evidence?

! Almost two-thirds of respondents are making information available electronically and expect this number to grow

! Those who predict growth reflect optimism in the growth of their businesses

! Reasons for decline primarily related to the shift from print to electronic delivery

! Overall, document owners and print buyers expect print volume to grow, though only slightly" Print buyers expect 2.9% growth, document

owners 2.3%

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Technology Adoption Plans for All Document Types (Document Owners)

17.2% 8.6% 14.2%60.0%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Making information availableelectronically

Currently use Planning in next 12 monthsConsidering in next 2 years No plans to migrate

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Factors Behind Expected Print Volume Increase

7.4%

24.1%

28.1%

39.9%

71.9%

85.2%

5.0%

23.1%

26.6%

33.3%

69.9%

76.3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Other

New or additionalgovernment regulations

Increased pressure fromcompetitors

More employees

More customers

Growth ofcompany/more business

Print Buyers Document Owners

Percentage of Print Buyers on Factors Contributing to Increase in Print Volume

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Factors Behind Expected Print Volume Decrease

8.2%

9.6%

17.8%

19.2%

34.2%

41.1%

50.7%

63.0%

3.6%

5.8%

5.1%

10.9%

27.0%

42.4%

65.0%

69.3%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Other

Fewer employees

Fewer customers

Smaller company/less business

Shift to desktop or workgroup printing

Corporate cost-cutting initiatives

Shift to electronic delivery in response to enduser preferences

Shift to electronic delivery to cut costs

Print Buyers Document Owners

Percentage of Print Buyers on Factors Contributing to Decrease in Print Volume

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! Document Owners and Print Buyers are embracing the Internet for print purchasing

! Comfort level with the Web has increased significantly over the past three years

! Service providers are doing a poor job promoting Web-enabled solutions

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Where is the Evidence?

! About 20% of print spending is being conducted via the Internet, and this number is expected to grow significantly over next two years.

! Concerns about security and cost are the primary perceived drawbacks of Web-enabled tools.

! A large percentage of respondents do not know if their vendors offer Web-enabled solutions.

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Percentage of Total Print Spending Being Conducted Via an Internet Enabled Workflow

Roughly what percentage of your total print spending would you estimate is now being conducted via a workflow that incorporates Internet-enabled tools (excluding email)?

Currently In Two Years CAGRDocument Owners 20.10% 28.80% 20%(N) 378 378Print Buyers 23.30% 32.50% 18%(N) 530 528

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Inhibitors to Adoption of Print e-Procurement Toolsfrom Print e-Procurement: Changing the Face of the Printing Industry

5%10%8%Cost concerns

**7%2%2%Concerned about security / reliability

7%*2%3%3%In the process of going on-line

3%*2%5%3%Vendors don’t provide such services

7%*10%3%5%Concerned about losing control

10%6%5%7%7%Connections too inefficient

20%3%7%3%7%Don’t have Internet access

3%3%14%8%8%Never considered it

7%9%

7%18%5%8%9%Concerned about quality control

30%38%26%25%29%Prefer talking to/working with people

43%Current processes work fine 37%56%33%46%

$1 Million+$250k-$999K$50k-$249K

Spend<$50K

Total

Q 20. Why are you not making greater use of the Internet?

N=165 not using Internet to submit / track jobs, but aware of web services. “*”=<2%

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Whether Any Providers or Vendors Offer e-Procurement Systems

47.7%

31.0%

13.5%

15.4%

17.6%

18.3%

20.2%

59.4%

0% 20% 40% 60%

Don't know

Not offered

Print service providersoffer such a solution

Paper vendors offersuch a solution

Print Buyers Document OwnersMultiple Responses Permitted

N = 532 Print Buyers and 386 Document Owners

Percentage of Print Buyers on Offers of e-procurement, e-sourcing or online auction solution

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Lack of Integration/Optimization

ProductionProcesses

Suppliers

Business Processes

Customers

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The Sentence

! Service Providers must:" Embrace the opportunity to educate and consult

# Help customers assess, re-engineer and streamline document processes# Provide domain expertise and accountability

" Leverage experience delivering paper documents to deliver content via multiple channels

" Streamline internal workflow and choose solutions that are interoperable

" Provide Web-enabled solutions, promote those solutions, and ensure that they integrate with production and business processes

00000000 74

Holly [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]