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Charles SCAWTHORN Junji KIYONO
Kyoto University
Earthquake Risk Reduction 3- Mitigation and ERR Program Development
1. Concepts and Terminology2. Hazard, Vulnerability & Risk
Assessment 3. Mitigation and ERR Program
Development
Mitigation Risk Mitigation Alternatives Operational Risk Transfer Develop the Program
Benefit-cost ratio Acceptable risk
Implement the Program Funding Seismic retrofit Emergency planning
Maintain the Program
Key Terms
Structural (using buildings as an example)
(a) moment frame
(d) base isolation
Bracing Types
“K”
“V”
Chevron
eccentric
“X”
diagonal(b) braced frame
(c) shear wall
(e) damped frame
CPU
(f) active control system: ground motion sensor, processor, and
controlled mass
Locational
California Alquist-Priolo fault map, showing location of fault, and zone within which geologic investigation is required
AP Zone
Fault
Actual fault
Shaking intensity map
Operational
EOC Director(Management)
Finance/Administration Logistics
Planning/Intelligence
Operations
EOC Director(Management)
Finance/Administration
LogisticsPlanning/
IntelligenceOperations
Operational Area EOC
Local Government EOC
Single buildings
Insurance company
Single buildings
Insurance company
Single buildings
Insurance company
Reinsurance company
Risk Transfer
Mitigation of damage and loss is possible at each step of earthquake loss process; earthquake occurs, primary hazards, primary damage, secondary hazard/damage, primary loss, and secondary loss.
Risk Mitigation Alternatives
EARTHQUAKE OCCURSEARTHQUAKE OCCURS
PRIMARY HAZARDS:Faulting, Shaking, Liquefaction, Landsliding, Tsunami…
PRIMARY HAZARDS:Faulting, Shaking, Liquefaction, Landsliding, Tsunami…
SECONDARY LOSS:Business / Operations InterruptionMarket Share, Reputation…
SECONDARY LOSS:Business / Operations InterruptionMarket Share, Reputation…
PRIMARY LOSS:Life / Injury, Repair Costs, Function, Communications/Control…
PRIMARY LOSS:Life / Injury, Repair Costs, Function, Communications/Control…
SECONDARY HAZARD / DAMAGE:Fire, Hazmat, Flooding…
SECONDARY HAZARD / DAMAGE:Fire, Hazmat, Flooding…
PRIMARY DAMAGE:Building / StructuralNonstructural / Equipment
PRIMARY DAMAGE:Building / StructuralNonstructural / Equipment
MITIGATION
Improved emergency planning and response; insurance…
Improved emergency planning and response; insurance…
Hazard mapping; ground remediation; tsunami walls…
Bracing and strengthening, reduction of mass, base isolation, structural control…
Improved storage/infrastructure, better emergency response…
RESULT
Demand (hazard) eliminated or reduced
Demand (hazard) eliminated or reduced
Capacity (strength…)
increased
Capacity (strength…)
increased
Loss avoided or shared
Loss avoided or shared
Secondary demandseliminated or reduced
Secondary demandseliminated or reduced
Earthquakes are a problem, in the most general sense, solving a problem has three basic phases.
Phase 1: Understanding the problem
Phase 2: Finding the solution
Phase 3:Putting the solution into effect
Outline of Risk Reduction Program
Pre-program
Assess the Risk
Develop the Program
N
Acceptable?YStop
Acceptable?
Y
N
Implement the Program
Maintain the Program
Factors - Seismic environment? - Organization / decision-making - Responsibility / liability
Data - Seismic hazard - Exposure - life - property - business / function - revenue - data - market share - reputation / image - Vulnerability - Assessment
Mitigation Options - Locational - Redundancy / backup - Move - Structural - Strengthen structures - Brace equpment / furnishings - Operational - Emerency Plan - Backup data - Transfer - Insurance - Contracts
Measuring Benefits
Internal Rate of Return is the discount rate that “sets the net present value of the stream of net benefits [and costs] equal to zero”- effectively a measure of the return on investment
( )
( cos )
PV allfuturebenefitsBCR
PV allfuture tsBenefit Cost Ratio
( ) ( cos )LCC PV allfuturebenefits PV allfuture ts
Life Cycle Cost
Cost Damage
$
Design Level
Tot Cost
Constr.Cost
Identify the assets (people, property, function) at risk.
The corresponding losses for people, property and function are death and injury, financial loss, and business interruption, revenue, market share.
Establishing (i.e. quantifying) the seismic hazard
It is a representation of how strongly the ground will shake and how often it is likely to do so.
Developing performance objectives No loss of life (no significant collapse hazard), limited
property loss, no loss of essential equipment, and restoration of operation onsite or backup site within the time appropriate for the organization.
Performing first a risk screening and then, for selected structures, a more detailed review
Assess the Risk
Developing the program, which consists of determining the acceptable risk, the opinions that exist for reducing the current risk to an acceptable level, the costs of doing that, and how it should be accomplished.
Having performed risk screening, facilities may be usefully grouped into several categories, such as
I. Probable high risk II. Possible high risk III. Probable low risk
The category I and category II facilities should be subjected to a more detailed analysis.
All the category I and II facilities can be ranked according to their risk, mitigation costs, or other criteria. The ranking is based on a benefit-cost ratio.
The final decision as to what facilities to mitigate will depend on available budget and is the final expression of the organization’s acceptable risk.
Develop the Program
Retaining seismic retrofit design professionals: Initial investigation and screening Detailed investigation and conceptual retrofit design Construction documents and construction support
Funding the program; the following sources should generally considered when planning programs of seismic mitigation.
General operating and maintenance funds Bond issues Special use fee Hazard mitigation grants Tax preferences and credits
Coordinating with other parts of the organization; it is very important to include earthquake risk mitigation measures with other facets of an organization’s asset management program.
Implement the Program
Organizations are dynamic and facilities, operations, and personnel are constantly changing. Thus documentation of the step taken, including the process and criteria, is an important step to complete.
As new facilities or operations are developed, the same or enhanced criteria can be applied to them, thus retaining the overall balance of earthquake mitigation program.
As new personnel join the organization, they can review the earthquake mitigation program documentation and maintain the overall goals.
Maintain the Program
SummaryAn Earthquake Risk Reduction Program involves the following steps:
1. ASSETS: Identify and map the assets at risk – the people, property, business and cultural treasures. Where are they, how many are they, what is their value?
2. HAZARDS: Map the earthquake hazards that threaten these assets. Hazards include faulting, shaking, liquefaction, tsunami, landslide, fire.
3. VULNERABILITY: Assess the vulnerability of each asset to the hazards – is an highly vulnerable, moderately, or just low?
4. ANALYZE: Combine the information on Assets, Hazards and Vulnerability into a Risk Analysis. Map the areas of High Risk.
5. MITIGATION: Based on the assets, hazards and vulnerabilities, identify various ways in which the risk can be lowered. Select the mitigation method that makes the most sense – ie, is most effective for the least cost.
6. DEVELOP THE PROGRAM: Having a mitigation package, gather community support and find ways to pay for the mitigation. Develop a Plan for doing the mitigation over a several year timeframe.
7. IMPLEMENT THE PROGRAM: Do it. Don’t stop. Earthquakes won’t wait.