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Charles KennedySenior Vice President, Insights - DYGSenior Vice President, Insights - DYG
“Five Key Trends Impacting The Future Of Golf”
©Copyright DYG, Inc. 2006
Prepared for:
World Golf Foundation
October 30th, 2006
Who We Are
What We Do
How We Do It
A Word About DYG SCAN®
We are, since 1987, a research service specializing in the study of trends in American attitudes, values, beliefs and demographics
We help companies apply the trends in America to product development, marketing, communications, planning, H.R. management and dealing with public issues
We conduct an annual nationally representative phone survey (n=4,000), focus groups and draw on many secondary sources
3
In 2003, DYG talked about the “Time Crunch.”
The Experience Economy
Technology Trap of Endless Improvements
Conspicuous Activation
The Marketplace Trap of Endless Choice
The Media Trap of 24-7
Lifestyle IntegrationChild Centered-ness
Time Time CrunchCrunch
“Time Crunch” trends haven’t left. They’ve intensified.
The Time Crunch Equation:
Lower the Time Commitment …
…Raise the Value of Time Investment
OR
New trends have emerged as threats - and opportunities - to golf.
1. Connected-ness
2. The New Power Of Women
3. A Winner/Loser Society
4. Child Preparation
5. The Health Imperative
Ending isolation, loneliness, planting roots
Key Value:
Definition:
Being part of a larger web of connections
“Connected-ness”
Trend#1
Forces behind “Connected-ness”:
• 9/11
• New, long-term sense of uncertainty.
• Aging Boomers
• 78 Million Baby Boomers starting to empty their nest. Need to create new connection.
• Rising Twixters & Soloists
• Two new life stages that are not centered around the home or the nuclear family.
• Integrated and Mobile Lifestyle
• Cell-phones/GPS let you plan, meet, connect on-the-fly, allows for more connections to be made – feeding the trend.
Drive for connected-ness is transforming where we live, shop and surf (on-line).
Mixed-use centers
Life-style malls
On-line mega-verse
Threats to golf from “Connected-ness”:
What if…
• Fewer people move/retire to golf-centric locations, in favor of more “connected” sites?
• Golf loses out to more “connected” activities?
• As diversity of group goes up, agreement on any one activity (including golf) goes down?
Opportunity for golf from “Connected-ness”:
• Grandparents connecting with grandkids via golf
• They’ve got the time, money, interest… and even the health
Gen X and YTrendLeaders:
Definition:Shift from Stealth to Overt power – in workplace, marketplace, politics, home, society, culture
Key Values:Gender Equality For WomenConfidence
“The New Power Of Women”
Trend#2
Forces accelerating “The New Power Of Women”:
• Education movement
• Self-esteem movement
• Long life span allows for delayed marriage
• New economy needs traditional “female” skills
2000%
56
2010*%
59
% of Bachelors Degrees conferred to women
1971%
43
% of Masters Degrees conferred to women
* Projection(National Center for Education Statistics)
Educational attainment
1981%
50
2000%
58
2010*%
60
1971%
40
1981%
50
Marketplace impact of “The New Power Of Women”:
Sphere of influence expanding to encompass autos, homes, financial
services
16
Threats to golf from “The New Power Of Women”:
What if…
• Women breadwinners set a non-golf leisure agenda at home and for the family?
• Women business leaders reject/don’t embrace golf?
Opportunity for golf from “The New Power Of Women”:
What if…
• Golf becomes the sport and leisure activity of choice for women?
What could make that happen?
• Positioning golf in multiple ways (health, environmental cause, social activity)
Definition:
Key Values:
Personal Responsibility Hard Work Education as Primary Determinant
of Success
Acceptance of government policies and market forces that embrace “Social Darwinism”
“A Winner/Loser Society”
Trend#3
Middle-class neighborhoods are getting squeezed out.
A Return to the gilded age ?
Wealthiest 1% have 190 times the median wealth.
125131
156
168173
190
100
150
200
1962 1983 1989 1998 2001 2004
Source: Wollf 2006
x190
Marketplace impact of “Winner/Loser Society”:
• Size of “Losers” is growing
• So is the intensity
• This group will need more comforting
Marketplace impact of “Winner/Loser Society”:
• Size of “Winners” is growing
• 15% of all U.S. households have an income of $100,000 or more (compared to 2% in 1995)
• Need more upscale categories
• Rich
• Filthy-rich
• “My-plane’s-bigger- than-your-plane”-rich
Threats to golf from “The Winner/Loser Society”:
What if…
• The Losers can’t afford the cost of golf?
• The “Exhausted Affluent” don’t have time for golf?
• The new rich gravitate to newer sports/activities?
Opportunity for golf from “The Winner/Loser Society”:
• Mass Affluent see golf as the ultimate de-stress tonic
• But must make playing as simple & stress-free as possible
• Uber-golf as the ultimate win
• More expensive, exclusive, elite
• Packaged with high-end experiences and/or exotic local
Gen X TrendLeaders:
NewDefinition:
A willingness to sacrifice time, energy and money – now for the preparation of our children
Key Value: “Once you have a child, your own needs come second”
“Child Preparation”
Trend#4
How child centered-ness has Morphed.
Early ’90s
Protecting
Post 9-11
Preparing
Late ’90s
Pampering
Forces behind Child Preparation:
• Pampered kids can’t compete as effectively
• Globalization
• Threatens job security; education as panacea
• Shifting Demographics
• Childhood a smaller part of people’s longer life
• Integrated Lifestyle
• Children seen & heard everywhere; requires new kinds of behavior from them
Marketplace impact of “Child Preparation”:
• Tutoring hits $3.2 Billion a year in America
• More time & money directed at kids
• Less time & money directed to parents
Threats to golf from “Child Preparation”:
What if…
• Parents siphon their golf resources (time & money) towards their kids?
• As a result, the parents never develop the golf habit?
Opportunity for golf from “Child Preparation”:
What if…
• Golf becomes a critical multi-tasker for parents?
• Teaching kids key life skills
• Teaching kids key business/social skills
• Developing family fitness
• Giving self some R & R
Sophisticated understanding that health – in all its aspects – is key to a valuable and meaningful life
Key Values: Happiness (under changed
circumstances) Personal Responsibility
Trend#5
NewDefinition:
“The Health Imperative”
Expanded definition of health and well-being:
Absence of Illness
(Pre 1960s)
Pursuit of WellnessPursuit of Wellness
(1970s-early1990s)
BODY
Attention toWhole-ness
(21st Century)
BODY & SOUL
WHOLE-NESS is a fundamentally new approach (in America) to Health & Happiness that Incorporates all states of being
Emotional
Mental
CommunalSpiritual
Physical
35
Forces accelerating “The Health Imperative”:
• Valuable Life Goal Requires Health
• To be active, meaningful, significant
• Aging Population
• “Silent” problems now scream for attention
• Real World Threats Mounting
• From Terrorism to Avian Flu to National Disasters
• Pain Of Poor Health Too Great To Ignore
• Medical costs, emotional cost
Marketplace impact of “The Health Imperative”:
Significant New & Expanded Health Criteria Used For Shopping
Wal-MartGoes
Organic
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Societal implication of “The Health Imperative”:
Success and Status
Defined by HealthSuccess and
Status Defined by
Wealth
Threats to golf from “The Health Imperative”:
What if…
• Golf isn’t seen as active enough?
• Golf courses are seen as unhealthy
• Chemicals
• Pesticides
• Water hogs
Opportunity for golf from “The Health Imperative”:
What if…
• Golf is seen as a health panacea?
• Doctors’ orders. Tee off!
• HMOs offer discounts if you’ll play
• Studies link regular golfing to better health, less costly insurance
• Golf goes really green?
• Organic golf courses?
• Natural golf courses?
• Protection against sprawl
• Multi-purpose courses (farm, park, golf)
SummaryKey Trends Impacting Golf
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Key Trends = Golf Opportunities
1. Connected-ness
2. New Power Of Women
3. Winner/Loser Society
4. Child Preparation
5. The Health Imperative
1. Golf = Grandparenting
2. Golf = Multi-vitamin
3. Golf = Uber-experience
4. Golf = Great skills
5. Golf = Well-ness, Green-ness
What if…
For more information, contact DYG’s Main Office:For more information, contact DYG’s Main Office:
Phone #: 203-744-9008Phone #: 203-744-9008
[email protected]@DYG.com
