Chapter Two

Population

Distribution of World Population• Population concentrations

– The four largest population clusters [East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Western Europe]

– Other population clusters [W. Hemisphere, West Africa]

• Sparsely populated regions• Dry lands – 20% to dry to farm; contain natural resources?• Wet lands – near equator b/t 20° north & south latitude; large

amounts of rainfall• Cold lands – covered with ice or permafrost; unsuitable• High lands – mountains are steep, snow covered

World Population Cartogram

Fig. 2-1: This cartogram displays countries by the size of their population rather than their land area. (Only countries with 50 million or more people are named.)

World Population Distribution & Climate

Zones

Fig. 2-2: World population is unevenly distributed across the earth’s surface. Climate is one factor that affects population density.

Expansion of the Ecumene 5000 BC - AD 1900

Fig. 2-3: The ecumene, or the portion of the earth with permanent human settlement, has expanded to cover most of the world’s land area.

Ecumene, 5000 B.C.

Ecumene, A.D. 1

Ecumene, A.D.1500

Ecumene, A.D.1900

Population DensityArithmetic

total # of people divided by total land areaAnswers the “where” question

Physiological# of people supported by a unit area of arable landProvides insights into the relationship b/t size of

population & availability of resources in a regionAgricultural

Ratio of the # of farmers to the amount of arable landThis measure helps account for economic differences

(MDCs vs. LDCs)

Arithmetic Population Density

Fig. 2-4: Arithmetic population density is the number of people per total land area. The highest densities are found in parts of Asia and Europe.

Physiological Density

Fig. 2-5: Physiological density is the number of people per arable land area. This is a good measure of the relation between population and agricultural resources in a society.

Measures of Population Density

Distribution of World Population GrowthNatural Increase

Crude Birth Rate (CBR) – total # of live births per year for every 1,000 people alive

Crude Death Rate (CDR) – total # of deaths per year for every 1,000 people alive

Natural Increase Rate (NIR) - % by which population grows in a year [(CBR-CDR)/10 = NIR] High base population means small changes in NIR have dramatic

effect Doubling Time - # of years needed to double population

assuming constant rate of natural increase Virtually 100% of natural increase clustered in LDCs

Distribution of World Population GrowthFertility

Total Fertility Rate – average number of children a woman will have throughout her child-bearing years

Vary between LDCs & MDCS 2.7 for world as whole

Mortality Infant Mortality Rate – annual # of deaths of infants

compared w/ total live births Higher rates in poorer countries; reflects country’s health-

care system Life expectancy – measures the average # of years a

newborn infant can expect to live at current mortality levels

World Population Growth1950 - 2005

Fig. 2-6: Total world population increased from 2.5 to over 6 billion in slightly over 50 years. The natural increase rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since, but the number of people added each year did not peak until 1990.

Natural Increase Rates

Fig. 2-7: The natural increase rate (NIR) is the percentage growth or decline in the population of a country per year (not including net migration). Countries in Africa and Southwest Asia have the highest current rates, while Russia and some European countries have negative rates.

Crude Birth Rates

Fig. 2-8: The crude birth rate (CBR) is the total number of births in a country per 1000 population per year. The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest rates are in Africa and several Asian countries.

Total Fertility Rates

Fig. 2-9: The Total fertility rate (TFR) is the number of children an average woman in a society will have through her childbearing years. The lowest rates are in Europe, and the highest are in Africa and parts of the Middle East.

Infant Mortality Rates

Fig. 2-10: The infant mortality rate is the number of infant deaths per 1000 live births per year. The highest infant mortality rates are found in some of the poorest countries of Africa and Asia.

Life Expectancy at birth

Fig. 2-11: Life expectancy at birth is the average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live. The highest life expectancies are generally in the wealthiest countries, and the lowest in the poorest countries.

Crude Death Rates

Fig. 2-12: The crude death rate (CDR) is the total number of deaths in a country per 1000 population per year. Because wealthy countries are in a late stage of the Demographic Transition, they often have a higher CDR than poorer countries.

Variations in Population Growth• The Demographic Transition [4 stages]

1. Low growth agricultural revolution allowed for more people to survive

2. High growth Industrial revolution spurs movement into stage CDR decreasing, CBR stable Medical revolution pushed LDCs into stage in late 20th century

3. Moderate growth CBR begins to drop, still higher than CDR People decide to have fewer offspring => decline in mortality & IMR;

economic changes (work in cities)

4. Low growth CBR = CDR & NIR nears zero (0) => Zero population growth

Variations in Population Growth• Population pyramids

Age distribution Dependency ratio – larger the % of dependents, the greater the

financial burden on those working Sex ratio

# of males per 100 females; slightly more males born, but have higher death rates

• Countries in different stages of demographic transition

• Demographic transition and world population growth

The Demographic Transition

Fig. 2-13: The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.

World Population & Growth Rates, 400,000 BC - AD 2000

Demographic Transition in England

Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.

Percent of Population under 15

Fig. 2-15: About one-third of world population is under 15, but the percentage by country varies from over 40% in most of Africa and some Asian countries, to under 20% in much of Europe.

Population Pyramids in U.S. cities

Fig. 2-16: Population pyramids can vary greatly with different fertility rates (Laredo vs. Honolulu), or among military bases (Unalaska), college towns (Lawrence), and retirement communities (Naples).

Rapid Growth in Cape Verde

Fig. 2-17: Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.

Moderate Growth in Chile

Fig. 2-18: Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

Low Growth in Denmark

Fig. 2-19: Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

Will the World Face an Overpopulation Problem?

Thomas MalthusArgued world’s rate of population increase was far

outrunning development of food suppliesPopulation increased geometrically, whereas food supply

increased arithmeticallyNeo-Malthusians

Medical technology resulted in gap b/t population growth & resources widening in some countries

World pop. Outstripping variety of resources which will lead to war & civil violence

Overpopulation Problem• Critics of Malthus

– Possibilists, Contemporary analysts, Marxists, Economic, Political leaders

• Declining birth rates– Malthus theory & reality

• Food production increased more rapidly• Population increased at a slower rate; NIR declined

– Reasons for declining birth rates• Economic development• Distribution of contraceptives

World Health Threats• Epidemiological Transition – focuses on

distinctive cause of death in each stage of demographic transition

• Stage 1 – pestilence & famine; Black Plague• Stage 2 – receding pandemics; Cholera• Stage 3 – degenerative & human-created

diseases; cardiovascular disease, cancer• Stage 4 – delayed degenerative diseases• Stage 5 – reemergence of infectious & parasitic

diseases

Food & Population, 1950-2000Malthus vs.

Actual Trends

Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

Crude Birth Rate Decline, 1980-2005

Fig. 2-21: Crude birth rates declined in most countries during the 1980s and 1990s (though the absolute number of births per year increased from about 120 to 130 million).

Use of Family Planning

Fig. 2-22: Both the extent of family planning use and the methods used vary widely by country and culture.

Women Using Family Planning

Family Planning Methods used in three countries

Promoting One-Child Policy in China

Cholera in

London, 1854

Fig. 2-23: By mapping the distribution of cholera cases and water pumps in Soho, London, Dr. John Snow identified the source of the water-borne epidemic.

Tuberculosis Death Rates

Fig. 2-24: The tuberculosis death rate is good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious disease killers.

Avian Flu, 2003 - 2006

Fig. 2-25: The first cases of avian flu in this outbreak were reported in Southeast Asia.

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2005

Fig. 2-26: The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present.