chapter THREE - chaLLenges - Commissioner for Environmental … · 2016. 9. 14. · productive environmental engineers are linked to one another. Some would say this is for our benefit

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FOUNDATION PAPER | TWO Land and Biodiversity victoria: the science, our private Land hoLders, incentives and connectivity | chapter ThREE - chaLLenges

chapter THREE - chaLLenges

Strathbogie Koala.

Image CfES, 2012.

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Koalas and penguins, butterflies and bandicoots, orchids and eucalypts, fungi and frogs are all interactive components of the equation where productive environmental engineers are linked to one another. Some would say this is for our benefit. If species populations and their habitats are further undermined this threatens the ‘ecosystem service provision’ which is essential for human survival. The challenges are considerable, and growing.

CSIRO has reported the potentially disastrous impacts of climate change on the environment.90 The implications of climate change – increased night and day temperatures, sea level rise, extreme events – have also all recently been the subject of deeply concerning commentary from institutions as varied as the World Meteorological Organisation, the World Bank Group, the United Nations and international accounting firm Price Waterhouse Coopers.91

Other critically impacting processes include:

•theinroadsofinvasivespecies

•populationpressure

•theincreasingdemandforfood,timberandotherresources.

A large body of science exists on each of the following commentaries about climate change, fire, land use intensification and pest species. This chapter is not intended to cover all that literature but simply pick up on the major issues.

the implications of climate change – increased night and day temperatures, sea level rise, extreme events – have also all recently been the subject of deeply concerning commentary from institutions as varied as the World Meteorological organisation, the World Bank group, the united nations and international accounting firm price Waterhouse coopers.91

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3.1 climate change Average temperatures are increasing across the globe. From 1956 to 2005 temperatures increased at a rate nearly twice that for the period 1906 to 1955.92 No other warm periods in the past millennium match or exceed the post-1950 warming as observed in Australia.93

Since 1990, changes to global temperatures have closely followed the mid-range of projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change whilst sea levels have tracked at the upper limit of projections.94 Current climate change projections may actually underestimate the extent of change which we should anticipate.

Worldwide 89% of observations from 75 studies show significant change in many physical and biological systems. This is consistent with the direction of change expected as a response to climate change. Scientists are concerned that changes in terrestrial systems will deliver earlier spring events and shift the range of associated species poleward and upward.95 CSIRO’s very recent study of marine systems is illustrative.96

Complete loss of some Victorian habitats is, according to some analysis, a distinct possibility.97

Under climate change projections biodiversity will be critically impacted by 2100.98 In Climate Change Victoria: the science, our people and our state of play we model changes for Victoria by the year 2050. The incursion of the desert climate into the north west, expansion of the warm and dry grasslands climate zone around the Geelong area, and the shift of zones across the face of the state, will impact biodiversity in multiple and complex ways.

Victorian research points to a range of climate change impacts. Earlier flowering of some alpine species99 and the invasion of higher altitude grassland communities by indigenous snow gums have already been documented.100 Organisms will shift their seasonal timing as has been witnessed with the common brown butterfly.101 Changes to phenology – nature’s calendar – can severely disrupt food webs by altering competition between species and by shifting the intersections of predator-prey relationships.102

Worldwide 89% of observations from 75

studies show significant change in many physical and biological systems.

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Changes like this can have significant consequences for ecosystem function, reproduction success and reduced adult survival. The complexity of these interactions in the light of climate change, where there will be winners and losers is explored in our commentary on, amongst other things, the Little Penguin in our paper Climate Change Victoria: the science, our people and our state of play.

Extreme and acute climate conditions, as distinct from grinding changes protracted over time, present a particular challenge for biodiversity and ecosystem ‘services’. Extreme temperatures and drawn out drought conditions are both expected to increase under climate change realities, potentially having severe effects on flora and fauna.103 Crops and livestock as well as native species will be impacted.104

Changes in the distribution of species are difficult to predict and outcomes will be complex. Winners and losers will populate our altered landscapes and seascapes105 but reseachers tell us we can expect the future distribution of Victoria’s flora and fauna to be greatly effected as some species become restricted in their distribution and others extend their range.106 Areas which are exposed to severe climate shifts may struggle to deal with significant localised extinctions.

Pest plants and animals are also expected to change their distribution in response to climate change, increasing the pressure on native species.

extreme and acute climate conditions, as distinct from grinding changes protracted over time, present a particular challenge for biodiversity and ecosystem ‘services’.

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at worst they will be disastrous and if that is the case, this will have

irredeemable impacts on the delicate balance of

biodiversity upon which we rely for the provision of ecosystem services.

3.2 FireWith climate change will come an elevated risk to biodiversity through increased frequency and extent of bushfires.

Managed burning regimes, undertaken principally to reduce the significant human risk from bushfire impacts, will need to be implemented in such a manner as not to unnecessarily compound these risks to biodiversity.

Ongoing assessment and critiques of managed burning regimes in response to the 2009 Victorian Royal Commission attest to the complexity of the issues associated with controlled burning regimes.107

Fire – the Victorian contextAustralian ecosystems have been managed at the local scale by fire since the late Holocene.

Changes in charcoal composition over the past 120,000 years depend on the particular environment.108 Changes in the frequency of burning practices since European settlement have promoted different vegetation associations.

Management responses which involve planned burns will continually release small nutrient bursts without reference to the local vegetation and climatic cycle.109 Changes such as this may prove to be, at best, inappropriate. At worst they will be disastrous and if that is the case, this will have irredeemable impacts on the delicate balance of biodiversity upon which we rely for the provision of ecosystem services.

Eucalypt regeneration after fire, Kinglake.

Image CfES, 2011.

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Eucalypt tree hollow.

Image CfES, 2011.

Changing fire regimes affect biodiversity directly and indirectly. For example, protective sites for birds and small mammals may only develop in mature trees that have not experienced fire for several decades.110

A study of the interaction of cypress – Callitris – and gum trees – Eucalypts – in burning regimes illustrates the intensely complicated relationships – the webs of connectivity – which will be impacted by a change of fire regimes in our unique landscapes.111

Case study: Interdependence of species, the bistable equilibrium of Callitris (cypress)and Eucalypt response to fire.112

A single set of environmental conditions can sometimes support more than one floral community. Open woodland may be dominated by stands of eucalypts or a dense stand of cypress – Callitris.

Patches dominated by each ecosystem or floristic state are stable or resilient over long periods of time. They rarely ‘switch’ to any other state. Differences of state or ecosystem are caused by ‘feedbacks’ between the vegetation and the environment.

Each state alters the environment in a way that promotes its own existence and disadvantages its competitors.

It has been found that if we modify vegetation and fuel structure, patches of fire-sensitive Callitris reduce potential fire intensity which in turn reduces Callitris mortality. The species works to advantage itself.

However, this feedback loop is insufficient to ensure the survival of Callitris under extreme fire-weather conditions as they are highly flammable. This is because stands regenerate from seed held in the canopy of burnt trees that fall to the ground.

After intense burning, stands remain vulnerable to future fires, unless and until trees are able to grow large enough to modify fuel levels and reduce potential flammability.

So, small isolated Callitris growing in the midst of eucalypts are more likely to die as a function of experiencing more intense fires.

Their loss impacts the bird and insect life in the environment in which they have previously thrived.

The Callitris/Eucalypt case study not only highlights ecosystem resilience, but also illustrates how an adaptive cycle can produce various feedback mechanisms and varied responses.113

Beyond the impacts of introduced burning practices, the projected increased fire frequency and fire intensity associated with climate change is expected to upset the alternative stable states of, for instance, the Callitris/Eucalypt mosaic.114

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the time scale for a resilient response requires

infrequent burning, between 20 years (for the

tree to reach maturity) and 400 years (the tree’s

mature lifespan).

From studies undertaken over time we know that some Victorian ecosystems with single vegetation communities have an adaptive cycle related to fire.

Fire sensitive Eucalyptus regnans – the stately mountain ash – regenerate from seed after fire. Resultant communities comprise species that are adapted to fire, with seeds reliant on fire to break dormancy and seedlings responding quickly to increased nutrients, as a function of the ‘ash bed effect’. The time scale for a resilient response requires infrequent burning, between 20 years (for the tree to reach maturity) and 400 years (the tree’s mature lifespan). Eighty (80) years is considered the optimal time for silvicultural harvest practices of this native timber.

Smith, Daniel. “Inferno” oil on canvas. Metro Gallery.

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such a landscape will therefore retain greater resilience.

Illustrating the multiplicity and complicated interactions of a changed fire regime, beyond just damaging ‘the bush’, such change could adversely impact:

•businessandemployment–thetimberharvestregimeandtheindustry and people which rely upon it

•environment–theecosystemofwhichitisacomponentand integral part

•ecosystemservices–forinstance,thewatercatchmentsinwhichthe species grows and upon which people rely.

These ecosystem services are also potentially impacted in yet undisclosed ways.

By way of comparison, a western Victorian grassland ecosystem will produce fuel for – and regenerate after – fires over much shorter intervals. Such a landscape will therefore retain greater resilience.

Warby Ranges north east Victoria post fire.

Image CfES, 2011.

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the challenge therefore lies in fully identifying

assets of value (life, property, primary

production, water, ecosystem health) and

incorporating these into an appropriate

risk framework for guiding management.

Increasing risk and consequences of bushfiresAs climate change leads to ever higher Fire Danger Index conditions and also the increasing likelihood of natural ignition,115 there will be a growing need for deeper public understanding of where and when the greatest impacts from fires may occur. This is especially pressing as urban zones expand into the bush and increasing numbers of people are likely to find themselves exposed to fire.

The final report of the Bushfires Royal Commission Implementation Monitor (BRCIM) advocated that “the State reconsider the planned burning rolling target of five % as the primary outcome”.116

This reinforces expert opinion that state-wide targets should be the sum of evidence based regional targets, aligned with local objectives of risk reduction that are clearly defined in terms of asset protection or ecological function.117

The challenge therefore lies in fully identifying assets of value (life, property, primary production, water, ecosystem health) and incorporating these into an appropriate risk framework for guiding management. DSE has begun this crucial work and will be including ecological and biodiversity values in future state-wide risk assessments.

Fire risk identificationThe DSE has developed tools incorporating likely impact factors such as fire intensity or potential community loses which will be helpful if fire risks to the public are to be adequately addressed and planned for as the climate changes.

The Future Fire Management Project has provided recommendations for examining the outcomes of managed fire regimes.

As part of its work assessing fire risks in Victoria, DSE has developed the bushfire characterisation model Phoenix-Rapidfire. This can be used to model the location of areas at greatest risk from code-red level bushfires, assuming either a particular management approach or that there is no fire

management in place. This work provides guidance for public planning.

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altered burning regimes, which we expect to be driven by climate change, have the potential to severely impact biodiversity and ecosystem function and services.

Assessing impacts of fire management on biodiversityAssessing the likely responses of ecosystems to fire management is a complex task. Our ability to plan appropriate fire regimes hinges on improving our knowledge of:

•mechanisticresponsesofplantsandanimalstofireregimes

•howspeciesareaffectedbythespatialandtemporalsequences of fires

•howotherecologicalprocesses(predation,invasivespecies)interactwith fire responses.119

The Future Fire Management Project has identified a range of landscape scale impacts metrics that are used with Phoenix. These describe burnt areas, vegetation growth and species abundance.

Although further research is still needed to validate model outcomes, this work is providing crucial insights about managing for several objectives. These insights will be important when involving communities in setting priorities for risk reduction.

Schemes of this nature are also key to the process of moving beyond purely responsive management of fire impacts towards rigorous testing of management strategies under a range of conditions and building capacity to engage in adaptive management.

Research of metrics and models are intended to inform decision makers but will not provide a “correct” solution for managing fire regimes.

Fire and the future climateAltered burning regimes, which we expect to be driven by climate change, have the potential to severely impact biodiversity and ecosystem function and services. Sensitive land management practices, applied with knowledge of fire intervals that are appropriate for each system, can act to mitigate these impacts and maximise conservation efforts over the long-term. Savannah burning regimes in the north of Australia provide an illustration of the level of care and organisation which can be taken for better environmental outcomes.

As the climate changes, public and private land managers will need to be or become aware of the appropriate intervals for burning across their enterprises. In the private domain landowners will have to consider developing new farming regimes, as has been the case in cropping where no-till farming developed in response to drought conditions.120

Managing for climate change impacts and responding proactively to possibilities becomes particularly challenging in agricultural landscapes where remnant vegetated or re-vegetated areas occur close to property and where management will be focused on minimizing fire risk if controlled burning is conducted appropriately.121

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3.3 Land use intensificationPopulation growth and settlement impacts, attended by intensification of land use practices, have proved to be key drivers of biodiversity loss in Victoria and elsewhere.122 Past attempts at remediation and the introduction of policies promoting the concept of ‘net vegetation gain’ have attracted much attention but, ultimately, struggled to deliver better environmental outcomes.123

Land use intensification has promoted spectacular increases in food production124 but, contemporaneously, there is no doubt it has also promoted habitat fragmentation across our landscapes.125 The intensification of Victorian agriculture highlights the changing relationships between agricultural producers and the ecosystems from which livelihoods are derived.126 In extreme cases our land use practices have threatened landscapes and the ecosystem services they provide, producing a situation where ecosystems are unable to return to pre-existing states.127

Based on ecological theory, it is suggested that levels of connectivity in a landscape could be directly linked with levels of cover of native vegetation; connectivity begins to be most impaired once 30% of the original cover of native vegetation is removed.128

No till farming landscapes, Wimmera.

Image CfES, 2011.

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European agricultural monocultures which are based on species that evolved on fertile soils formed after the last glaciations are unsuitable for many ancient Australian soils.

Land clearing (often, historically, state-sponsored and sanctioned),129 associated with: cultivation for the planting of crops, grazing by hard hooved stock, the alteration of the country’s hydrology and has promoted a situation where traditional native grasslands and plains landscapes have lost stability and resilience in the search for higher productivity or through acclimation of naturalised alien species.130

Abrupt changes to ecosystems such as these have resulted in a hard loss of stability and threats to biodiversity.131

The continued intensification of agricultural landscapes effected by the adoption of, and perceived need for, industrialised farming, impacts the interdependencies and complexity of environmental and ecological processes.132

A long term scenario, one which the farming community and scientists and administrators are still actively working to avoid, could, in the worst case, be a new environmental stable state of salt pans.

Paradoxically and reflecting the complexity of the situation we find ourselves in, our salinity problem has been lessened because of the recent dry years. Wet years, which we all celebrate, threaten to raise water tables and re-establish it as a problem to be addressed.133

More subtle examples of profound changes taking place include the continued acidification of soils due to increased nitrogenous-fixing clovers which are encouraged by phosphorus fertilisers. The situation in Western Australia, accepting its soil types differ from Victoria’s, provides the most graphic demonstration of this problem, where it is understood ‘soil acidity affects two-thirds of Western Australia’s wheat belt and costs the farming community in excess of $70 million annually through lost production’.134 Soil acidification decreases the bio-availability of nutrients, increases the concentration of toxic elements and, in extreme cases, can affect soil structure making soils more susceptible to erosion.

We know that native grasslands, our fragile and subtle biodiversity and ecosystem services hot spots, cannot recolonise areas fertilised in this way.135 Profoundly changing environmental regimes to monocultures of exotic ground-stories such as Phalaris also adversely impacts ecosystems. Monocultures of non-native, high productivity species such as Phalaris will not support the same level of biodiversity as mixed native grasslands, and monocultures such as this, depleting species richness and ecological processes, will also act as barriers to re-establishing native species.

Research into the impact of landscape design on potential conservation activities – particularly where more intensively managed agricultural landscapes are compatible with biodiversity outcomes – is being undertaken in Victoria by CSIRO136 and groups such as the Lower Murray Landscape Futures.137

A long term scenario,

one which the

farming community

and scientists and

administrators are still

actively working to

avoid, could, in the

worst case, be a new

environmental stable

state of salt pans.

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Dust Busting Croppers – we can innovate and change

Victorian grain growers have demonstrated how far farming systems have come in thirty years. Iconic images of wind blown Wimmera and Mallee soils darkening the sky above Melbourne in 1983 are a far cry from the current situation. Despite low rainfall during the 2012 cropping season – in the lowest 20-30% of all years on record and equal to the rainfall in 1983 – crops generally produced fair to average yields (1.5 – 2.5 tonnes per ha in the Wimmera-Mallee) with minimal erosion. What has changed to make crop production systems better and more resilient? Many things, starting with conservation farming practices.

Use of conservation farming practices has been increasing ever since the devastating combination of drought and soil loss of 1983. Farmer groups, in conjunction with Victorian government agronomists, introduced conservation farming practices. Conservation farming practices enable retention of crop residues to protect the soil from erosion, and retention of water and nutrients whilst managing issues such as weeds and equipment capabilities. The result is that where wind erosion is seen today it is generally in isolated paddocks without crop cover.

Retaining crop residues improves soil function by increasing its ability to store water and retain nutrients, enabling the next crops to use them. Information disseminated about trials undertaken with new crop varieties gives farmers confidence that these will grow using conservation farming methods and encourages them to sow many of their crops under lower risk conditions. Timely control of summer weeds preserves summer rainfall for the following crop, and prevents nutrients being used by weeds. Integrated management of weeds and pests prevents the need for frequent removal of crop residue protecting the soil from erosion risk and the crop from damage and competition for resources.

Paddock scale erosion.

Image CfES, 2012.

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|Synergy between conservation tillage practices combined with modern herbicides has allowed cropping farmers to sow a larger proportion of their crops either early or on time. This has great productivity and environmental benefit, particularly in years with low spring rainfall. This system also allows farmers to gain greater efficiencies of scale to offset against declining terms of trade.

Work by Department of Primary Industries (DPI) in measuring and promoting conservation farming practices in northwest Victoria reveal that the proportion of paddocks under conservation management nearly doubled from around 44% in 1996 to over 82% in 2009.

The monitoring of soil management practices allows DPI to better target efforts to work with farming groups to protect soil. The map of soil management after summer (see below) illustrates paddocks which have been cleared of crop residue, and the risk level for wind erosion of the local soil type. This map assists DPI and its farming network partners to better prioritise engagement with farmers and advisors about soil health by identifying areas of significant soil management risk and high risk soil types. Areas of bare and high risk soil in the northwestern Wimmera are of higher priority than those in the southwest which are of moderate to low soil erosion risk. Communicating activities focussing on the benefits of crop residue retention has involved some novel approaches.

New tools developed by DPI for working with farmers to protect and maintain soil health demonstrate that retained crop residues reduce erosion and also trap airborne soils and nutrients from distant sources. The erosion fan rig enables farmers and agronomists to measure and understand the greater protection that retained crop residues provides to productive soils.

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±* Bare Earth is the Conventional Fallow, Stubble Burnt and Stubble to be Burnt management types from the Autumn Survey 2011.

Figure 8: Wimmera Cropland Management Transect Autumn 2011 Survey. Source Department of Primary Industries.

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Innovation in farming practices continues to be reflected in the DPI Science Awards. This year, 2013, Rick and Jenny Robertson received the Hugh McKay DPI Partnership Award for the work they have done in Sustainable Grazing on Saline Lands and Evergraze ‘improving their stewardship of natural resources’. Additionally, the Samuel Wadham DPI Practice Change Award was presented to the Native Pasture Management Project Team whose work elevates native grasses from ‘poor cousin’ status, promoting the restoration of ‘marginal and unproductive environments using perennial native grasses’.

Accepting commitment to improved practices, the farming practices which we brought with us when we colonised this country which provided food and fibre for an exponentially growing population also worked to deplete biodiversity across scales, and unintentionally promoted the colonisation of introduced and invasive species. Our historical practices have threatened surrounding remnant vegetation as a function of the isolation on populations.

Arguably we have plotted a course where the absence of coherent environmental systems and or remnants means it is increasingly difficult to maintain biodiversity in the landscape and to retain ecosystem services more broadly.138

There is scope to address this issue on privately held agricultural landscapes by connectivity and other projects.

Our historical practices

have threatened

surrounding remnant

vegetation as a function

of the imposition of

isolation on populations.

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Commissioner for Environmental Sustainability visits Jigsaw Farms.

Image CfES, 2011.

Doubling farm food & fibre production, boosting biodiversity, reducing greenhouse emissions and improving water quality – is it possible? – Jigsaw Farms helps answer the future farming puzzle.

Which is more important for the future – meeting growing global food demands, or improving our performance on managing biodiversity, greenhouse emissions and water quality? While the experts battle this out, some innovative farmers in Victoria’s southwest have discovered a pathway that shows us how positive environmental outcomes do not have to be at the expense of increasing on-farm productivity and food production.

Jigsaw Farms is a 4900 hectare farming enterprise owned and managed by Mark Wootton and Eve Kantor. Over the past 13 years Mark and Eve have been striving to build a farming system that brings all the pieces of the sustainable agriculture puzzle together – hence the name Jigsaw Farms.

Mark says “We run the farm as a company, but with a family farming model. There are six staff with their young families all involved in Jigsaw Farms. By consolidating farming into a system there is a greater access to capital and agribusiness knowledge and innovation while the social and landscape values of farming are also maintained.”

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As owner-managers, Mark and Eve planned to combine a high productivity sheep and cattle operation while protecting remnant vegetation and revegetating Jigsaw waterways on a landscape scale. They are aiming for 25% being planted with permanent revegetation and farm forestry shelter plantings or protecting wetlands – and they are well on the way, having planted their millionth tree.

Their new forests are a mix of permanent indigenous revegetation and riparian protection (along creeks) and farm forestry plantings in corridor belts, managed on a cycle of harvest and replant. Using farm planning principles, the Jigsaw revegetation program has been focussed on the 25% of the farm’s less productive and degraded soils, which includes areas of salinity and shallow soils.

At the same time, the agricultural production from the remaining 75% of the farm’s land has increased from 30,000 DSE (dry sheep equivalents) to 70,000 DSE over the past 13 years.

According to Mark, “The increase has largely come about as a result of management and structural changes such as improving fertiliser rates, modern perennial pastures, fencing to land type, developing an extensive laneway system, expansion of a deep water storage and reticulation system and continual development of staff to understand the key profit drivers of professional grass growing.”

All of the developments on Jigsaw Farms are done with concern for future sustainability, with Mark and Eve being passionate about tackling climate change. Mark can now claim that “I’ve estimated that the emission reductions (carbon absorbed) by our new forests while they are actively growing will outweigh all of the on-farm agricultural emissions, which is about 15,000 tonnes per year of CO2 equivalents.”

As for local birdlife, local ornithologist Murray Gunn has conducted seasonal bird surveys at Jigsaw Farms since 1998 and has recorded an increase from 49 species to 155, with total number of birds across these species quadrupling. These figures are seen by Mark and Eve as an indicator of improved biodiversity and a vindication of Jigsaw’s connected wetlands and revegetation corridors.

“The farmers I speak to are keen to explore practical and market driven solutions to climate change and not to focus on the negative. They realise that the world has an increasing demand for food and fibre. They also realise that we are moving at great speed in an increasingly carbon constrained world. The challenge is to meet this challenge now and to stop just talking about it,” Mark said.

Mark and Eve are also confident that the carbon footprint of farming can be significantly reduced in the future while still maintaining the high levels of fibre and meat production. While many people ask if it’s possible to meet the future challenge of growing more food, reducing emissions and developing sustainable and profitable farms – Jigsaw Farms offers a key piece in solving that puzzle.

Eucalyptus Maculata, Jigsaw Farms.

Image CfES, 2011.

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3.4 invasive speciesEcosystem disturbance, and the consequent impacts on ecosystem services, associated with settlement and production practices, often facilitates the colonisation of landscapes and habitats by invasive species. Colonisation by pest species arguably causes loss of biological diversity, even though cause and effect can be difficult to determine.139

Our early ‘acclimatisation societies’ provided the first wave of invasive colonisations, deliberately introducing blackberry and other species to alter the composition of pastures. The next generation of imports, which may include the introduction of potentially weedy species for the production of biomass to generate biofuels, could present the next risk to biodiversity.140

Invasive species are not confined to insects and weeds but also include animals which thrive on this sort of vegetation. Goats, deer and rabbits take advantage of altered landscapes but so do less obvious colonisers, such as exotic millipedes which have increased in abundance in response to pesticide usage.141 Over time research has generated a considerable literature on the issue of eradication of pest species and their impact on biodiversity and the ecosystem services which biodiversity provides142 but these studies are labour intensive, can be expensive and will take time. Introducing one pest to undermine another is tempting but must be resisted – the cane toad experience tells us that.

Agriculture is also vulnerable to introduced species given its dependence upon the ecosystem services provided by biological diversity. Once the habitat of natural predators is removed ‘population explosions of pest species’ can colonise productive as well as reserved landscapes.143

As we showed in Climate Change Victoria: the science, our people and our state of play agriculture is vulnerable to climate change impacts and in such conditions some organisms and animals will thrive.

Once the habitat of

natural predators is

removed ‘population

explosions of pest

species’ can colonise

productive as well as

reserved landscapes.143

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HIGHER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTENSE STORMS HIGHER CO2 CONCENTRATIONSHEATWAVES

SEA LEVEL RISE

BUSHFIRESDROUGHT

Reduction in crop yields from hotter, drier climate and more severe storms

Reduction in water resources available for agriculture

Reduction in timber production from hotter, drier climate and more severe stormsReduction in

livestock production from hotter, drier climate and more severe storms

Relocation of agricultural industries to more suitable areas

Reduced pasture growth limiting grazing opportunities

Reduction in livestock productivity and quality from increased heat stress

Increases in pests and disease reducing yields and raising management costs

Possible increase in crop and forestry yields when not limited by other climate change impacts

Less frequent frosts reducing the yield and quality of crops that require chilling for production

Increased loss of property, crops and livestock to more frequent bushfires

Increased loss of forests and plantations to more frequent bushfires

Decreased soil health limiting plant growth and productivity

Loss of ground cover increasing erosion and dust storms

Migration or loss of marine species will affect the viability of current fisheries

Range extensions of marine pests threatens fisheries such as Rock Lobster and Abalone

Rising ocean acidification will impact on many commercial species

Reduced freshwater inputs will impact on inshore habitats vital to many commercial marine species

Impacts on seagrass beds and coastal habitats important recruitment sites for many commercial species

Reduction in groundwater resources available for agriculture

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

Figure 9: Impacts of Climate Change on Primary Production. source Climate Change Victoria: the science, our people and our state of play. cfes developed infographic, 2012.

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HIGHER AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTENSE STORMS HIGHER CO2 CONCENTRATIONSHEATWAVES

SEA LEVEL RISE

BUSHFIRESDROUGHT

Reduction in crop yields from hotter, drier climate and more severe storms

Reduction in water resources available for agriculture

Reduction in timber production from hotter, drier climate and more severe stormsReduction in

livestock production from hotter, drier climate and more severe storms

Relocation of agricultural industries to more suitable areas

Reduced pasture growth limiting grazing opportunities

Reduction in livestock productivity and quality from increased heat stress

Increases in pests and disease reducing yields and raising management costs

Possible increase in crop and forestry yields when not limited by other climate change impacts

Less frequent frosts reducing the yield and quality of crops that require chilling for production

Increased loss of property, crops and livestock to more frequent bushfires

Increased loss of forests and plantations to more frequent bushfires

Decreased soil health limiting plant growth and productivity

Loss of ground cover increasing erosion and dust storms

Migration or loss of marine species will affect the viability of current fisheries

Range extensions of marine pests threatens fisheries such as Rock Lobster and Abalone

Rising ocean acidification will impact on many commercial species

Reduced freshwater inputs will impact on inshore habitats vital to many commercial marine species

Impacts on seagrass beds and coastal habitats important recruitment sites for many commercial species

Reduction in groundwater resources available for agriculture

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

58


3.5 summaryAddressing each of these challenges to biodiversity, each of which will potentially compound earlier and ongoing problems, will require well organised, formal and informal, public and private interventions. Mainstreaming or entrenching programs will be a pivotal component of change.

Programs like the Blackberry Task Force,144 Project Hindmarsh,145 the multiple and various revegetation projects supporting threatened bird and other populations,146 urban and rural Landcare,147 and a proliferation of other efforts attest to the interest that both farming communities and the public have in these matters.

http://www.vicblackberrytaskforce.com.au/publications/VBT_Report_2011-12.pdf

59

http://vnpa.org.au/page/bushwalking-and-activities/project-hindmarsh-planting-weekend-2012

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Benefits which accrue

to the environment will

also accrue to private

landowners engaged

in agriculture.

Benefits which accrue to the environment will also accrue to private landowners engaged in agriculture.

Regulatory regimes, monitoring efforts and management techniques have all been used in an effort to effect change, however, the shortcomings of these mechanisms if operating in isolation have been the subject of much critical comment over time. Commentaries come from a very wide spectrum, from environmental advocacy agencies like the Environmental Defender’s Office and legal specialists to audit agencies like the Victorian Auditor General.148

In the following section we examine these mechanisms and use that discussion to provide a launching pad for an examination of other, next generation techniques, such as how we can make use of incentives for private landowners.

http://www.platypus.org.au/

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chapter THREE - chaLLenges - Commissioner for Environmental … · 2016. 9. 14. · productive environmental engineers are linked to one another. Some would say this is for our benefit