CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 1 Chapter 8 Population and Development

CHAPTER 8 ©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics1

Chapter 8

Population and Development


Population and Development

World population growth, 1980-2005, was 1.6% yearly, increasing the population from 4.4 billion to 6.5 billion.

LDC population growth during the same period was 2% yearly.


Major topics Rapid but decelerating growth in LDCs. Demographic transition, death rates (DRs), &

birth rates (BRs). Malthusians vs. optimists on balance between

population & economic growth. Food-population balance. Is population growth an obstacle to economic

growth? Population pyramids. Reducing fertility.



Population growth in DCs & LDCs

DCs & transitional economies < 0.8% yearly.

Some East & Southeast Asian & Latin American economies 0.8-1.8% yearly.

Most LDCs, especially sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia & Central America >1.8% yearly.




World Population Growth by Region

Africa 2000-25 projected 2.4% yearly growth (38 BR & 14 DR).

Latin America 2000-25 1.3% yearly growth.

Asia 2000-25 1.1% yearly growth.



World Population Growth Rate Decelerating 1960 to 2005

Growth 2.3% yearly at peak in 1960. Growth 1.3% 2005. Expected growth 0.8% in 2025. See Figure 8-4.



What is the demographic transition?

Period of rapid population growth between pre-industrial stable population (high BR & DR) and later modern stable population (low BR & DR).

DR falls faster than BR, giving rise to population explosion.


Western & non-Western patterns

After 1650, Western countries increased population more rapidly & steadily.

1930-2005 population growth rate declined.

Except for China & Japan, non-Western countries did not experience population growth until after 1930.



Stage 1: high fertility & mortality

Most of humankind’s history . Lack of modern sanitation, medicine, industry,

agriculture, trade, transport & communication. Self-sufficiency means food shortages disastrous. Fertility must match morality for populations to

survive. Large families a blessing from God.


Stage 2: declining mortality Agricultural production increased –

improved trade, transport, & communication.

Death from infectious diseases declined.

Nutrition improved. Patterns differ between early DCs &

LDCs.




Table 8-2 Life expectancy at birth Africa’s fall in life expectancy from

the 1990s to the first decade of the 21st century is an anomaly among LDCs.

How do you explain this anomaly?


How do you explain Africa’sfall in life expectancy?

Deaths from the HIV/AIDS epidemic.


Stage 3: Declining Fertility Family planning programs. World’s total fertility rate –the number

of children born to the average woman during her reproductive years – 1968 (4.6), 1975 (4.1), 1987 (3.6), 1995 (3.1), 2003 (2.8).



Stage 4: Stationary population (low DR & BR)

Sweden, Austria, Germany, Denmark, Belgium, Britain, Greece, Italy, Spain, Russia, Ukraine, & Bulgaria.


Is Population Growth an Obstacle to Economic Development

(Malthus vs. Simon) Malthusian view: population increases

geometrically – 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, etc. outstripping food supply, increasing arithmetically – 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Simon: more people increase the stock of knowledge through additional learning gains, compounded by the quickening effect of greater competition and total demand spurring “necessity as the mother for invention.” Division of labor & economies of large-scale production increase as markets expand. Recommends laissez-faire population policy.


Figure 8-9 World Grain Production Per Person, 1960-2001 (kg)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1960 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000

Years

Does this just reflect a shift from consumption of grain to other foods as income increases?


UN Development Program (2003:87)

If all the food produced worldwide were distributed equally, every person would be able to consume 2,760 calories a day (hunger is defined as consuming fewer than 1,960 calories a day). . .

Hunger is more than just a lack of available food. It is a problem of deficiencies in food entitlement and deprivations in related essential services (health care, education, safe drinking water, adequate sanitation).


Energy limitations

Substantial gains made in food productivity during the late 20th century were partly dependent on cheap, abundant energy.

Will higher real energy prices reduce further gains in food productivity?


What other costs are there to high fertility & rapid population growth other than

diminishing returns to land?

Urbanization & congestion. Rapid labor force growth & increasing

unemployment (Ch. 9). Higher dependency ratios – ratio of

nonworking population to working-age population (see next two slides).




Econometric studies (p. 296)

High fertility & rapid population growth hinder growth of GNP per capita.

Barro (1997) – increased resources devoted to child rearing instead of production contribute to negative relationship between population growth rate & GNP per capita.




Previous slide (from p. 302)

Poor people, poorly educated people, rural people, and those in agriculture have higher birth rates than others.


Population & development

Bucharest conference – “Development is the best contraceptive.”

Crucial role of education & labor force participation of women.


Strategies for reducing fertility Birth control programs. Socioeconomic development. Development or family planning?

- Both are essential to reduce fertility rates.

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CHAPTER 8©E.Wayne Nafziger Development Economics 1 Chapter 8 Population and Development